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Step 7 — Attribution
16:10 ET · 涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
Agent 结论
真正 Driver：NFP + AI Chip Selloff · Attribution：AI 60% · Bond 5% · Hypothesis：部分对 · Scenario A→B 未命中
NFP + AI Chip Selloff 主导；Scenario A→B 未命中
Step 7 — S7 16:10 Evening Review
今日真正 Driver、Morning 对错、Decision Log
| 字段 |
内容 |
| 判断 |
真正 Driver：NFP + AI Chip Selloff · Attribution：AI 60% · Bond 5% · Hypothesis：部分对 · Scenario A→B 未命中 |
| 置信度 |
N/A |
| 一句话 |
NFP + AI Chip Selloff 主导；Scenario A→B 未命中 |
Step 7 — Evening Review (Attribution Engine)
7.1 Outcome Attribution
| Driver |
Contribution |
| AI / Semiconductor |
60% |
| Bond / Rates |
5% |
| Oil / Geo |
4% |
| Macro Data |
40% |
| Other |
0% |
7.2 True Driver
- Morning/Hypothesis: PPI
- Actual: NFP + AI Chip Selloff
- Hypothesis result: 部分对
7.2b Scenario (P15)
- Morning primary: A
- Actual played out: B
- Scenario hit: ✗
- Scores: {'A': 0.1, 'B': 1.0, 'C': 0.0}
7.3 Surprise
- Split attribution: NFP 40% + Chip Selloff 60%; Bond mattered less than expected despite 10Y=4.62%
7.4 Decision Log
| Field |
Value |
| Today's Driver |
NFP + AI Chip Selloff |
| Driver Splits |
NFP 40% · AI Chip Selloff 60% |
| Hypothesis |
H-2026-07-15-001 · 部分对 |
| Scenario (P15) |
预测 A → 实际 B · 未命中 |
| Attribution |
NFP 40% · AI Chip Selloff 60% |
| Surprise |
Split attribution: NFP 40% + Chip Selloff 60%; Bond mattered less than expected despite 10Y=4.62% |
| Trade Decision |
No Trade |
7.5 Prediction Error (P18 learning stub)
- Primary: —
- Predicted ER: None%
- Actual: None%
- Error: None%