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Step 1 — Morning Research

8:00 ET · R0 → P1–P16 → P17 Hypothesis → P18 Trade Candidates (v2)

Day 9
9/9 Steps

四路 Edge

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Macro Edge YES

今日有重大催化剂(含地缘/突发):PPI、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy

Index Edge YES

SPY 盘前/开盘 +0.22%

Sector Edge NO

板块相对强度不足

Stock Edge YES

AAPL RS+新闻+量能

Index Trade:NO TRADE

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.3 未达阈值
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty PPI、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

PPI + Oil Selloff

  • scheduled PPI 75 Scheduled: Producer Price Index
  • commodity Oil Selloff 73 XLE -1.8%
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Macro — PPI

    Scheduled: Producer Price Index

  2. Secondary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE -1.8%

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 711.7 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 711.7 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 711.7 (昨日低点) and 711.7 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 NVDA
NVDA ranked #1 because highest probability + best catalyst alignment
LONG Intraday 77.0% 0.34% Reward/Risk 0.28 Entry Zone 213–214 PREMARKET
-2.95%
Entry still valid
$210.5 $213.81 RS vs QQQ +1.60% · RS vs SMH +3.25% · News 8 · Volume 信号 PPI · Oil Selloff Close below stop $210.5
2 META LONG Intraday 71.0% 4.06% Reward/Risk 8.43 Entry Zone 661.25–661.50 PREMARKET
+3.17%
Entry still valid
$658.19 $688.26 RS vs QQQ +3.90% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% PPI · Oil Selloff Close below stop $658.19
3 TQQQ LONG Intraday 54.0% 5.36% Reward/Risk 6.08 Entry Zone 72.52–72.64 PREMARKET
-0.08%
Entry still valid
$71.94 $76.47 Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% PPI · Oil Selloff Close below stop $71.94
4 AVGO LONG Intraday 68.0% 0.8% Reward/Risk 0.75 Entry Zone 392–395 PREMARKET
-0.20%
Entry still valid
$389.11 $396.5 RS vs QQQ +0.89% · RS vs SMH +2.54% · 上行空间 <1.0% PPI · Oil Selloff Close below stop $389.11
5 AMD LONG Intraday 73.0% 1.4% Reward/Risk 3.31 Entry Zone 552–555 PREMARKET
+0.39%
Entry still valid
$551.0 $561.05 RS vs QQQ +1.34% · RS vs SMH +2.99% · News 2 · 上行空间 <1.0% PPI · Oil Selloff Close below stop $551.0

Watchlist

  • QQQ · Pass · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • ARM · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.36% · RS vs SMH +3.01% · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • SPY · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.22% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • TSLA · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -0.61% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • SMH · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -1.65% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 68.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 73.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.3 未达阈值
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty PPI、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • PPI / Oil Selloff Whipsaw
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

今日交易 · Intraday

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议 · 独立于 Intraday Primary(多日–数周持仓)

标的 · 方向META · LONG
HorizonSwing (days–weeks)
Ideal Entry Zone $665.92–$682.36
止损 Stop $637.14 (637.1 (1.75xATR))
目标 Target(s) $737.87 · T2 $766.65 +8.46%
置信度76%

波段做多 META:理想入场 $665.92–$682.36,止损 $637.14,目标 $737.87(约 +8.5%),持仓天数–数周

Why
  • 高流动性波段标的 META
  • Prior day +0.0%
  • 5D momentum +12.0%
  • RS vs QQQ +3.90%
  • Swing score 6.7

Invalidation:Close beyond stop $637.14 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

stop=1.5–2×ATR or prior-week extreme; T1=max(5%, 2×ATR); T2=min(15%, max(10%, 3×ATR)) · ATR: ATR14

P18 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Rank Symbol Win Prob Expected Return R:R Final Score Trade
1 NVDA 77.0% 1.04% 3.25 1.21 Pass
详情

#1 NVDA · Pass · Stock Edge · $206.79

final = win_prob(77%) × ER(1.0%) × rr_weight(1.5) / 100

Win 77.0% · ER 1.04% · R:R 3.25 · Score 1.21

Why vs #2:NVDA RS +1.6% vs META +3.9%;ER 1.0% vs 0.9%;Win% 77 vs 71;relative strength

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS 18.0 · Catalyst 5.0 · Volume 4.0 → 77.0%

  • RS vs QQQ +1.60%
  • RS vs SMH +3.25%
  • News 8
  • Volume 信号
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:1.6%
  • Gap:4.17%
  • Volume:Yes · News:8
2 META 71.0% 0.86% 0.23 0.31 Pass
详情

#2 META · Pass · Stock Edge · $682.36

final = win_prob(71%) × ER(0.9%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 71.0% · ER 0.86% · R:R 0.23 · Score 0.31

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS 12.0 · Gap 5.0 · Volume 4.0 → 71.0%

  • RS vs QQQ +3.90%
  • Gap 未过度延伸
  • Volume 信号
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:3.9%
  • Gap:1.05%
  • Volume:Yes · News:0
3 TQQQ 54.0% 0.37% 6.81 0.3 Pass
详情

#3 TQQQ · Pass · Index Edge · $72.52

final = win_prob(54%) × ER(0.4%) × rr_weight(1.5) / 100

Win 54.0% · ER 0.37% · R:R 6.81 · Score 0.3

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · Volume 4.0 → 54.0%

  • Volume 信号
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:-0.17%
  • Gap:5.08%
  • Volume:Yes · News:0
4 AVGO 68.0% 0.73% 1.0 0.25 Pass
详情

#4 AVGO · Pass · Stock Edge · $392.57

final = win_prob(68%) × ER(0.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 68.0% · ER 0.73% · R:R 1.0 · Score 0.25

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS 18.0 → 68.0%

  • RS vs QQQ +0.89%
  • RS vs SMH +2.54%
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:0.89%
  • Gap:1.85%
  • Volume:No · News:0
5 AMD 73.0% 0.6% 1.0 0.22 Pass
详情

#5 AMD · Pass · Stock Edge · $555.5

final = win_prob(73%) × ER(0.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 73.0% · ER 0.6% · R:R 1.0 · Score 0.22

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS 18.0 · Catalyst 5.0 → 73.0%

  • RS vs QQQ +1.34%
  • RS vs SMH +2.99%
  • News 2
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:1.34%
  • Gap:1.6%
  • Volume:No · News:2
6 QQQ 54.0% 0.14% 2.22 0.08 Pass
详情

#6 QQQ · Pass · Index Edge · $711.73

final = win_prob(54%) × ER(0.1%) × rr_weight(1.11) / 100

Win 54.0% · ER 0.14% · R:R 2.22 · Score 0.08

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · Volume 4.0 → 54.0%

  • Volume 信号
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:0.0%
  • Gap:1.71%
  • Volume:Yes · News:0
7 ARM 68.0% 0.21% 1.0 0.07 Pass
详情

#7 ARM · Pass · Stock Edge · $285.0

final = win_prob(68%) × ER(0.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 68.0% · ER 0.21% · R:R 1.0 · Score 0.07

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS 18.0 → 68.0%

  • RS vs QQQ +1.36%
  • RS vs SMH +3.01%
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:1.36%
  • Gap:2.06%
  • Volume:No · News:0
8 SPY 65.0% 0.1% 0.79 0.03 Pass
详情

#8 SPY · Pass · Index Edge · $750.83

final = win_prob(65%) × ER(0.1%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 65.0% · ER 0.1% · R:R 0.79 · Score 0.03

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS 6.0 · Gap 5.0 · Volume 4.0 → 65.0%

  • RS vs QQQ +0.22%
  • Gap 未过度延伸
  • Volume 信号
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:0.22%
  • Gap:0.68%
  • Volume:Yes · News:0
9 TSLA 49.0% -0.03% 4.53 0.0 Pass
详情

#9 TSLA · Pass · Stock Edge · $392.36

final = win_prob(49%) × ER(-0.0%) × rr_weight(1.5) / 100

Win 49.0% · ER -0.03% · R:R 4.53 · Score 0.0

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS -10.0 · Gap 5.0 · Volume 4.0 → 49.0%

  • RS 弱于 QQQ -0.61%
  • Gap 未过度延伸
  • Volume 信号
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:-0.61%
  • Gap:1.17%
  • Volume:Yes · News:0
10 SMH 44.0% -0.04% 6.72 0.0 Pass
详情

#10 SMH · Pass · Relative Weakness · $575.93

final = win_prob(44%) × ER(-0.0%) × rr_weight(1.5) / 100

Win 44.0% · ER -0.04% · R:R 6.72 · Score 0.0

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS -10.0 · Volume 4.0 → 44.0%

  • RS 弱于 QQQ -1.65%
  • Volume 信号
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:-1.65%
  • Gap:3.61%
  • Volume:Yes · News:0
11 MU 46.0% -0.15% 1.0 0.0 Pass
详情

#11 MU · Pass · Stock Edge · $976.7

final = win_prob(46%) × ER(-0.1%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 46.0% · ER -0.15% · R:R 1.0 · Score 0.0

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS -4.0 → 46.0%

  • RS 弱于 QQQ -0.65%
  • RS vs SMH +1.00%
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:-0.65%
  • Gap:1.79%
  • Volume:No · News:0

结论总表

收盘核对 →

R0 + P1–P17 · 判断 / 置信度 / 一句话

ID Part 判断 置信度 一句话
R0 R0 Regime Engine Regime:AI Expansion 82% AI 扩张 Regime;Macro 数据日可暂时 dominate 日内 Driver
P1 P1 昨天发生了什么? Neutral 65% DIA -0.07% · SPY 0.22% · QQQ N/A% · SMH -1.65%
P2 P2 昨天为什么涨/跌? Driver:PPI 70% PPI → Bond → Dollar → Sector → Index
P3 P3 今天市场最关心什么? N/A N/A LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出
P4 P4 债券 Bond Growth:Bearish · Score:-1 70% PPI → 10Y Up → Headwind
P5 P5 美元 Dollar 对 QQQ:Positive · Score:1 65% PPI → DXY Down → QQQ Positive
P6 P6 波动率 VIX 恐慌:Low · Score:1 75% VIX Down,Risk-on 可信
P7 P7 板块轮动 Sector 最强板块:XLF · 轮动:普跌 70% XLF 相对最强,SMH 最弱
P8 P8 AI 主题 Bullish Long-term (AI Expansion Regime) · Bullish 60% AI 主题偏多:SMH -1.65% · NVDA +1.60%
P9 P9 期权 Options 买期权:No · 0DTE:No · Call:No · Put:No N/A 事件日/节前 → 全部 NO
P10 P10 今日 Driver Primary:Macro · PPI 75% Macro: PPI → Political: Trade Policy → Macro: Oil Selloff
P11 P11 综合打分 Scoring Bias:Neutral · Total:+0 55% Neutral,综合得分 +0
P12 P12 市场状态 Regime N/A N/A LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出
P13 P13 Edge 优势 Edge:3/4 YES 79% 宏观 PPI、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy · 个股 AAPL
P14 P14 市场偏好 Preference AI > Defensive · Value > Growth · Mean Reversion > Momentum 65% 板块:XLF 最强 / SMH 最弱
P15 P15 情景 Scenario 最可能 Scenario:A 65% 围绕 Macro(PPI)的可验证情景
P16 P16 交易计划 Trading Plan 计划:Wait 65% IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
P17 P17 Hypothesis Hypothesis:H-2026-07-15-001 · 待验证 81% AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds?
P18 P18 Trade Candidates Best:— · NO TRADE · conf 45% 45% 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

今日催化剂

更新 2026-07-15T12:56:55
事件 预定 状态 实际值 Consensus Surprise 典型影响(参考) 实测反应
PPI 08:30 286.8 258.0 +11.2% ⬆️ PPI 高于预期 → 通胀传导预期升温 QQQ +0.1% / SMH -0.0% (5min post-release)
仅规则引擎 R0 · AI Expansion Bias Neutral · Total 0

P17 Hypothesis

H-2026-07-15-001 · 待验证 · conf 81.0%

AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds?

Evidence

  • VIX=16.4 (low fear)
  • Breadth 71% (broad participation)

Counter-evidence

Morning Research — 2026-07-15

Step 1 · 8:00 AM ET · ADVISORY ONLY — 不构成投资建议

综合 Bias:Neutral · Total:+0

🥇 Best Opportunity Today

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

P18 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Rank Symbol Win% ER% R:R Score Trade
1 NVDA 77.0 1.04 3.25 1.21 Pass
2 META 71.0 0.86 0.23 0.31 Pass
3 TQQQ 54.0 0.37 6.81 0.3 Pass
4 AVGO 68.0 0.73 1.0 0.25 Pass
5 AMD 73.0 0.6 1.0 0.22 Pass
6 QQQ 54.0 0.14 2.22 0.08 Pass
7 ARM 68.0 0.21 1.0 0.07 Pass
8 SPY 65.0 0.1 0.79 0.03 Pass
9 TSLA 49.0 -0.03 4.53 0.0 Pass
10 SMH 44.0 -0.04 6.72 0.0 Pass
11 MU 46.0 -0.15 1.0 0.0 Pass

结论总表

ID Part 判断 置信度 一句话
R0 R0 Regime Engine Regime:AI Expansion 82% AI 扩张 Regime;Macro 数据日可暂时 dominate 日内 Driver
P1 P1 昨天发生了什么? Neutral 65% DIA -0.07% · SPY 0.22% · QQQ N/A% · SMH -1.65%
P2 P2 昨天为什么涨/跌? Driver:PPI 70% PPI → Bond → Dollar → Sector → Index
P3 P3 今天市场最关心什么? N/A N/A LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出
P4 P4 债券 Bond Growth:Bearish · Score:-1 70% PPI → 10Y Up → Headwind
P5 P5 美元 Dollar 对 QQQ:Positive · Score:1 65% PPI → DXY Down → QQQ Positive
P6 P6 波动率 VIX 恐慌:Low · Score:1 75% VIX Down,Risk-on 可信
P7 P7 板块轮动 Sector 最强板块:XLF · 轮动:普跌 70% XLF 相对最强,SMH 最弱
P8 P8 AI 主题 Bullish Long-term (AI Expansion Regime) · Bullish 60% AI 主题偏多:SMH -1.65% · NVDA +1.60%
P9 P9 期权 Options 买期权:No · 0DTE:No · Call:No · Put:No N/A 事件日/节前 → 全部 NO
P10 P10 今日 Driver Primary:Macro · PPI 75% Macro: PPI → Political: Trade Policy → Macro: Oil Selloff
P11 P11 综合打分 Scoring Bias:Neutral · Total:+0 55% Neutral,综合得分 +0
P12 P12 市场状态 Regime N/A N/A LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出
P13 P13 Edge 优势 Edge:3/4 YES 79% 宏观 PPI、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy · 个股 AAPL
P14 P14 市场偏好 Preference AI > Defensive · Value > Growth · Mean Reversion > Momentum 65% 板块:XLF 最强 / SMH 最弱
P15 P15 情景 Scenario 最可能 Scenario:A 65% 围绕 Macro(PPI)的可验证情景
P16 P16 交易计划 Trading Plan 计划:Wait 65% IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
P17 P17 Hypothesis Hypothesis:H-2026-07-15-001 · 待验证 81% AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds?
P18 P18 Trade Candidates Best:— · NO TRADE · conf 45% 45% 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

详细分析

以下为各 Part 展开说明;结论摘要见上表。

R0 Regime Engine

决策级市场时代(AI Expansion / Macro Fear / …),先于 P1–P16

字段 内容
判断 Regime:AI Expansion
置信度 82%
一句话 AI 扩张 Regime;Macro 数据日可暂时 dominate 日内 Driver

(无补充分析)

P1 昨天发生了什么?

汇总上一交易日指数、宏观与新闻事实,给出昨日定性(Risk-on/off/Neutral/分化)

字段 内容
判断 Neutral
置信度 65%
一句话 DIA -0.07% · SPY 0.22% · QQQ N/A% · SMH -1.65%

P2 昨天为什么涨/跌?

找出昨日最大 Driver,写清因果链(事实 vs 解释的分界)

字段 内容
判断 Driver:PPI
置信度 70%
一句话 PPI → Bond → Dollar → Sector → Index

P3 今天市场最关心什么?

列出今日/本周重要事件与重要性,确定本周首要关注

字段 内容
判断 N/A
置信度 N/A
一句话 LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出

(无补充分析)

P4 债券 Bond

2Y/10Y 利率方向 → Growth 判断,输出 Morning Score

字段 内容
判断 Growth:Bearish · Score:-1
置信度 70%
一句话 PPI → 10Y Up → Headwind

P5 美元 Dollar

美元指数强弱 → 对 Risk/QQQ 的影响,输出 Morning Score

字段 内容
判断 对 QQQ:Positive · Score:1
置信度 65%
一句话 PPI → DXY Down → QQQ Positive

P6 波动率 VIX

VIX 升降与恐慌情绪 → Risk-on 是否可信,输出 Morning Score

字段 内容
判断 恐慌:Low · Score:1
置信度 75%
一句话 VIX Down,Risk-on 可信

P7 板块轮动 Sector

昨日各板块相对强弱,判断最强板块与轮动类型(普涨/普跌/分化)

字段 内容
判断 最强板块:XLF · 轮动:普跌
置信度 70%
一句话 XLF 相对最强,SMH 最弱

P8 AI 主题

AI/Mag7/半导体叙事:偏多、中性还是偏空,及主要理由与风险

字段 内容
判断 Bullish Long-term (AI Expansion Regime) · Bullish
置信度 60%
一句话 AI 主题偏多:SMH -1.65% · NVDA +1.60%

P9 期权 Options

四问:适合买期权/0DTE/Call/Put(YES/NO),事件日禁止 0DTE

字段 内容
判断 买期权:No · 0DTE:No · Call:No · Put:No
置信度 N/A
一句话 事件日/节前 → 全部 NO

P10 今日 Driver

Driver Type(分类)+ Driver(具体标签);无宏观催化剂日禁止写 Macro

字段 内容
判断 Primary:Macro · PPI
置信度 75%
一句话 Macro: PPI → Political: Trade Policy → Macro: Oil Selloff

P11 综合打分 Scoring

宏观/债券/美元/VIX/AI 等因子加权 → Total 与 Bias(牛/熊/中性)

字段 内容
判断 Bias:Neutral · Total:+0
置信度 55%
一句话 Neutral,综合得分 +0

P12 市场状态 Regime

趋势、波动、风险、流动性 → 今天是不是趋势确认日

字段 内容
判断 N/A
置信度 N/A
一句话 LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出

(无补充分析)

P13 Edge 优势

四路 Edge:Macro / Index / Sector / Stock(独立 YES/NO,非单一 gate)

字段 内容
判断 Edge:3/4 YES
置信度 79%
一句话 宏观 PPI、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy · 个股 AAPL

P14 市场偏好 Preference

结构化偏好(AI > Defensive、Growth > Value、Momentum > Mean Reversion),非新闻罗列

字段 内容
判断 AI > Defensive · Value > Growth · Mean Reversion > Momentum
置信度 65%
一句话 板块:XLF 最强 / SMH 最弱

P15 情景 Scenario

三种 Scenario,每行:Scenario X:若 触发条件 → 市场反应

字段 内容
判断 最可能 Scenario:A
置信度 65%
一句话 围绕 Macro(PPI)的可验证情景

Scenario A:若 PPI 弱于预期 + QQQ > 昨高 → Call

Scenario B:若 PPI 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃

Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

P16 交易计划 Trading Plan

IF-THEN 执行计划,每行:Scenario X:若 条件 → 行动(买 Call / 放弃 / 不追)

字段 内容
判断 计划:Wait
置信度 65%
一句话 IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets

Conditions to go LONG - IF QQQ > 711.7 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高) - IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT - IF QQQ < 711.7 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低) - IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade - IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets - IF QQQ between 711.7 (昨日低点) and 711.7 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range - IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

P17 Hypothesis

可验证假设:Evidence / Counter / 状态(待验证 → 盘中更新)

字段 内容
判断 Hypothesis:H-2026-07-15-001 · 待验证
置信度 81%
一句话 AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds?

Hypothesis IDH-2026-07-15-001

陈述:AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds?

状态:待验证

Evidence

Counter-evidence

P18 Trade Candidates

Win Prob · Expected Return · R:R · Final Score 排名 + Primary/Secondary/Watchlist(ADVISORY)

字段 内容
判断 Best:— · NO TRADE · conf 45%
置信度 45%
一句话 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Rank Symbol Win% ER% R:R Score Trade
1 NVDA 77.0 1.04 3.25 1.21 Pass
2 META 71.0 0.86 0.23 0.31 Pass
3 TQQQ 54.0 0.37 6.81 0.3 Pass
4 AVGO 68.0 0.73 1.0 0.25 Pass
5 AMD 73.0 0.6 1.0 0.22 Pass
6 QQQ 54.0 0.14 2.22 0.08 Pass
7 ARM 68.0 0.21 1.0 0.07 Pass
8 SPY 65.0 0.1 0.79 0.03 Pass
9 TSLA 49.0 -0.03 4.53 0.0 Pass
10 SMH 44.0 -0.04 6.72 0.0 Pass
11 MU 46.0 -0.15 1.0 0.0 Pass