Morning Research — 2026-07-15
Step 1 · 8:00 AM ET · ADVISORY ONLY — 不构成投资建议
综合 Bias:Neutral · Total:+0
🥇 Best Opportunity Today
ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议
- Direction:NO TRADE
- Symbol:—
- Instrument:—
- Horizon:—
- Confidence:45%
- Entry:—
- Stop:—
- Target:—
- Why:今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
- Avoid:
- One-liner:今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
P18 Trade Candidates
ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议
| Rank | Symbol | Win% | ER% | R:R | Score | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | 77.0 | 1.04 | 3.25 | 1.21 | Pass |
| 2 | META | 71.0 | 0.86 | 0.23 | 0.31 | Pass |
| 3 | TQQQ | 54.0 | 0.37 | 6.81 | 0.3 | Pass |
| 4 | AVGO | 68.0 | 0.73 | 1.0 | 0.25 | Pass |
| 5 | AMD | 73.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.22 | Pass |
| 6 | QQQ | 54.0 | 0.14 | 2.22 | 0.08 | Pass |
| 7 | ARM | 68.0 | 0.21 | 1.0 | 0.07 | Pass |
| 8 | SPY | 65.0 | 0.1 | 0.79 | 0.03 | Pass |
| 9 | TSLA | 49.0 | -0.03 | 4.53 | 0.0 | Pass |
| 10 | SMH | 44.0 | -0.04 | 6.72 | 0.0 | Pass |
| 11 | MU | 46.0 | -0.15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | Pass |
结论总表
| ID | Part | 判断 | 置信度 | 一句话 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R0 | R0 Regime Engine | Regime:AI Expansion | 82% | AI 扩张 Regime;Macro 数据日可暂时 dominate 日内 Driver |
| P1 | P1 昨天发生了什么? | Neutral | 65% | DIA -0.07% · SPY 0.22% · QQQ N/A% · SMH -1.65% |
| P2 | P2 昨天为什么涨/跌? | Driver:PPI | 70% | PPI → Bond → Dollar → Sector → Index |
| P3 | P3 今天市场最关心什么? | N/A | N/A | LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出 |
| P4 | P4 债券 Bond | Growth:Bearish · Score:-1 | 70% | PPI → 10Y Up → Headwind |
| P5 | P5 美元 Dollar | 对 QQQ:Positive · Score:1 | 65% | PPI → DXY Down → QQQ Positive |
| P6 | P6 波动率 VIX | 恐慌:Low · Score:1 | 75% | VIX Down,Risk-on 可信 |
| P7 | P7 板块轮动 Sector | 最强板块:XLF · 轮动:普跌 | 70% | XLF 相对最强,SMH 最弱 |
| P8 | P8 AI 主题 | Bullish Long-term (AI Expansion Regime) · Bullish | 60% | AI 主题偏多:SMH -1.65% · NVDA +1.60% |
| P9 | P9 期权 Options | 买期权:No · 0DTE:No · Call:No · Put:No | N/A | 事件日/节前 → 全部 NO |
| P10 | P10 今日 Driver | Primary:Macro · PPI | 75% | Macro: PPI → Political: Trade Policy → Macro: Oil Selloff |
| P11 | P11 综合打分 Scoring | Bias:Neutral · Total:+0 | 55% | Neutral,综合得分 +0 |
| P12 | P12 市场状态 Regime | N/A | N/A | LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出 |
| P13 | P13 Edge 优势 | Edge:3/4 YES | 79% | 宏观 PPI、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy · 个股 AAPL |
| P14 | P14 市场偏好 Preference | AI > Defensive · Value > Growth · Mean Reversion > Momentum | 65% | 板块:XLF 最强 / SMH 最弱 |
| P15 | P15 情景 Scenario | 最可能 Scenario:A | 65% | 围绕 Macro(PPI)的可验证情景 |
| P16 | P16 交易计划 Trading Plan | 计划:Wait | 65% | IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets |
| P17 | P17 Hypothesis | Hypothesis:H-2026-07-15-001 · 待验证 | 81% | AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds? |
| P18 | P18 Trade Candidates | Best:— · NO TRADE · conf 45% | 45% | 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值 |
详细分析
以下为各 Part 展开说明;结论摘要见上表。
R0 Regime Engine
决策级市场时代(AI Expansion / Macro Fear / …),先于 P1–P16
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | Regime:AI Expansion |
| 置信度 | 82% |
| 一句话 | AI 扩张 Regime;Macro 数据日可暂时 dominate 日内 Driver |
(无补充分析)
P1 昨天发生了什么?
汇总上一交易日指数、宏观与新闻事实,给出昨日定性(Risk-on/off/Neutral/分化)
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | Neutral |
| 置信度 | 65% |
| 一句话 | DIA -0.07% · SPY 0.22% · QQQ N/A% · SMH -1.65% |
- DIA (Dow proxy):-0.07%
- SPY:0.22%
- QQQ:N/A%
- SMH:-1.65%
- 定性:Neutral
P2 昨天为什么涨/跌?
找出昨日最大 Driver,写清因果链(事实 vs 解释的分界)
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | Driver:PPI |
| 置信度 | 70% |
| 一句话 | PPI → Bond → Dollar → Sector → Index |
- 因果链:PPI → Bond → Dollar → Sector → Index
P3 今天市场最关心什么?
列出今日/本周重要事件与重要性,确定本周首要关注
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | N/A |
| 置信度 | N/A |
| 一句话 | LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出 |
(无补充分析)
P4 债券 Bond
2Y/10Y 利率方向 → Growth 判断,输出 Morning Score
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | Growth:Bearish · Score:-1 |
| 置信度 | 70% |
| 一句话 | PPI → 10Y Up → Headwind |
- 10Y:4.62% (Up)
- 2Y:4.26%
- Growth 镜头:Headwind
- 因果:PPI → 10Y Up → Headwind
- Morning Score:Bond → -1
P5 美元 Dollar
美元指数强弱 → 对 Risk/QQQ 的影响,输出 Morning Score
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | 对 QQQ:Positive · Score:1 |
| 置信度 | 65% |
| 一句话 | PPI → DXY Down → QQQ Positive |
- 因果:PPI → DXY Down → QQQ Positive
- Morning Score:Dollar → 1
P6 波动率 VIX
VIX 升降与恐慌情绪 → Risk-on 是否可信,输出 Morning Score
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | 恐慌:Low · Score:1 |
| 置信度 | 75% |
| 一句话 | VIX Down,Risk-on 可信 |
- VIX:Down
- 情绪:Low
- Morning Score:VIX → 1
P7 板块轮动 Sector
昨日各板块相对强弱,判断最强板块与轮动类型(普涨/普跌/分化)
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | 最强板块:XLF · 轮动:普跌 |
| 置信度 | 70% |
| 一句话 | XLF 相对最强,SMH 最弱 |
- XLF:1.0%
- XLK:-1.34%
- XLE:-1.39%
- SMH:-1.65%
P8 AI 主题
AI/Mag7/半导体叙事:偏多、中性还是偏空,及主要理由与风险
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | Bullish Long-term (AI Expansion Regime) · Bullish |
| 置信度 | 60% |
| 一句话 | AI 主题偏多:SMH -1.65% · NVDA +1.60% |
- AI 判断:Bullish
- SMH 半导体:-1.65%
- XLK 科技:-1.34%
- NVDA:+1.60%
- Mag7 广度:86% 上涨(均值 +2.72%)
- 领涨:GOOGL +5.60%、META +3.90%、AMZN +3.46%
- 拖累:TSLA -0.61%
- 长期 Regime:Bullish Long-term (AI Expansion Regime)
- 今日 AI 表现:Bullish
P9 期权 Options
四问:适合买期权/0DTE/Call/Put(YES/NO),事件日禁止 0DTE
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | 买期权:No · 0DTE:No · Call:No · Put:No |
| 置信度 | N/A |
| 一句话 | 事件日/节前 → 全部 NO |
- 适合买期权?:No
- 适合做 0DTE?:No
- 适合买 Call?:No
- 适合买 Put?:No
- QQQ IV:High
- 事件日:是 · 节前:否
- 数据源:yfinance
P10 今日 Driver
Driver Type(分类)+ Driver(具体标签);无宏观催化剂日禁止写 Macro
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | Primary:Macro · PPI |
| 置信度 | 75% |
| 一句话 | Macro: PPI → Political: Trade Policy → Macro: Oil Selloff |
- Driver Tree(盘中可更新)
- Primary [Macro]: PPI — Scheduled: Producer Price Index
- Secondary [Political]: Trade Policy — tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat
- Tertiary [Macro]: Oil Selloff — XLE -1.8%
- Macro Calendar:PPI + Oil Selloff
- 催化剂摘要:Scheduled: PPI · Breaking: Trade Policy · Commodity: Oil Selloff
P11 综合打分 Scoring
宏观/债券/美元/VIX/AI 等因子加权 → Total 与 Bias(牛/熊/中性)
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | Bias:Neutral · Total:+0 |
| 置信度 | 55% |
| 一句话 | Neutral,综合得分 +0 |
- Macro:+0
- Fed:+0
- Bond:-1
- Dollar:+1
- VIX:+1
- AI:+1
- Earnings:+0
- Breadth:-1
-
Momentum:-1
-
*Total*:+0
P12 市场状态 Regime
趋势、波动、风险、流动性 → 今天是不是趋势确认日
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | N/A |
| 置信度 | N/A |
| 一句话 | LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出 |
(无补充分析)
P13 Edge 优势
四路 Edge:Macro / Index / Sector / Stock(独立 YES/NO,非单一 gate)
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | Edge:3/4 YES |
| 置信度 | 79% |
| 一句话 | 宏观 PPI、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy · 个股 AAPL |
- Macro Edge:YES · PPI、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy
- 今日有重大催化剂(含地缘/突发):PPI、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy
- Index Edge:YES
- SPY 盘前/开盘 +0.22%
- Sector Edge:NO
- 板块相对强度不足
- Stock Edge:YES · AAPL
- AAPL RS+新闻+量能
P14 市场偏好 Preference
结构化偏好(AI > Defensive、Growth > Value、Momentum > Mean Reversion),非新闻罗列
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | AI > Defensive · Value > Growth · Mean Reversion > Momentum |
| 置信度 | 65% |
| 一句话 | 板块:XLF 最强 / SMH 最弱 |
- AI > Defensive
- Value > Growth
- Mean Reversion > Momentum
P15 情景 Scenario
三种 Scenario,每行:Scenario X:若 触发条件 → 市场反应
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | 最可能 Scenario:A |
| 置信度 | 65% |
| 一句话 | 围绕 Macro(PPI)的可验证情景 |
Scenario A:若 PPI 弱于预期 + QQQ > 昨高 → Call
Scenario B:若 PPI 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃
Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易
P16 交易计划 Trading Plan
IF-THEN 执行计划,每行:Scenario X:若 条件 → 行动(买 Call / 放弃 / 不追)
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | 计划:Wait |
| 置信度 | 65% |
| 一句话 | IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets |
Conditions to go LONG - IF QQQ > 711.7 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高) - IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth
Conditions to go SHORT - IF QQQ < 711.7 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低) - IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH
Conditions to WAIT / No Trade - IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets - IF QQQ between 711.7 (昨日低点) and 711.7 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range - IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility
P17 Hypothesis
可验证假设:Evidence / Counter / 状态(待验证 → 盘中更新)
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | Hypothesis:H-2026-07-15-001 · 待验证 |
| 置信度 | 81% |
| 一句话 | AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds? |
Hypothesis ID:H-2026-07-15-001
陈述:AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds?
状态:待验证
Evidence
- VIX=16.4 (low fear)
- Breadth 71% (broad participation)
Counter-evidence
- —
P18 Trade Candidates
Win Prob · Expected Return · R:R · Final Score 排名 + Primary/Secondary/Watchlist(ADVISORY)
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | Best:— · NO TRADE · conf 45% |
| 置信度 | 45% |
| 一句话 | 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值 |
| Rank | Symbol | Win% | ER% | R:R | Score | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | 77.0 | 1.04 | 3.25 | 1.21 | Pass |
| 2 | META | 71.0 | 0.86 | 0.23 | 0.31 | Pass |
| 3 | TQQQ | 54.0 | 0.37 | 6.81 | 0.3 | Pass |
| 4 | AVGO | 68.0 | 0.73 | 1.0 | 0.25 | Pass |
| 5 | AMD | 73.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.22 | Pass |
| 6 | QQQ | 54.0 | 0.14 | 2.22 | 0.08 | Pass |
| 7 | ARM | 68.0 | 0.21 | 1.0 | 0.07 | Pass |
| 8 | SPY | 65.0 | 0.1 | 0.79 | 0.03 | Pass |
| 9 | TSLA | 49.0 | -0.03 | 4.53 | 0.0 | Pass |
| 10 | SMH | 44.0 | -0.04 | 6.72 | 0.0 | Pass |
| 11 | MU | 46.0 | -0.15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | Pass |