30 秒看懂：这不是炒股 App，也不会帮你下单。它每天自动做一套「晨会 → 盘中检查 → 收盘复盘」的研究报告，供你阅读和决策参考。
你唯一必须做的事：每个交易日收盘后花约 5 分钟去核对——告诉系统今天猜对了还是猜错了。核对越多，Agent 才会越用越准。
首页「Morning 一页纸 · 决策卡」每天 5 行 + Hypothesis。下面是一个假例子，帮你理解每行含义：
NYSE 休市日（周末、法定假日）没有当日报告，这是正常的——系统不会生成 Driver、决策卡或 Step 更新。
此时请点首页的「上一交易日」链接，查看最近一份完整报告。休市期间的新闻摘要（如有）仅供参考，不构成交易决策。
Day 9
| 事件 | 预定 | 状态 | 实际值 | Consensus | Surprise | 典型影响（参考） | 实测反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPI | 08:30 | ✅ | 286.8 | 258.0 | +11.2% ⬆️ | PPI 高于预期 → 通胀传导预期升温 | QQQ +0.1% / SMH -0.0% (5min post-release) |
H-2026-07-15-001Surprise：Split attribution: NFP 40% + Chip Selloff 60%; Bond mattered less than expected despite 10Y=4.62%
Lesson：当长期 AI Expansion Regime 与短期 Macro 利率利好（弱 NFP）冲突时，半导体风险仍可主导 Nasdaq；Dow/价值股可因利率改善走强；SMH -4.1% + QQQ -1.1%：半导体拖累纳指
{
"date": "2026-07-15",
"features": {
"dgs10": 4.62,
"dgs2": null,
"vix": 16.42,
"vix_chg": -0.48,
"qqq_chg": -1.11,
"smh_chg": -4.06,
"nvda_chg": -2.37,
"spy_chg": -0.13,
"oil_chg": -1.75,
"dxy_chg": -0.22,
"breadth_proxy": 0.7142857142857143,
"qqq_gap": 1.7141090847781557,
"news_headline_count": 19,
"news_bearish_ratio": 0.0,
"news_ai_mentions": 52,
"news_macro_mentions": 2,
"news_oil_mentions": 0,
"news_risk_mentions": 0
},
"regime": {
"label": "AI Expansion",
"confidence": 0.82
},
"hypothesis": {
"id": "H-2026-07-15-001",
"statement": "AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds?",
"evidence": [
"VIX=16.4 (low fear)",
"Breadth 71% (broad participation)"
],
"counter_evidence": [],
"confidence": 0.81,
"status": "待验证"
},
"morning": {
"bias": "Neutral",
"total": 0,
"driver_type": "Macro",
"daily_driver": "PPI",
"best_opportunity": {
"direction": "NO TRADE",
"symbol": "—",
"instrument": "—",
"horizon": "—",
"confidence": 45,
"entry": "—",
"stop": "—",
"target": "—",
"targets": [],
"duration": "—",
"why": [
"今日无任何标的达到交易阈值"
],
"why_chain": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"avoid": [],
"one_liner": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"advisory": true
},
"best_trades": {
"primary": null,
"secondary": null,
"watchlist": null,
"index_trade": "NO TRADE",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"stock_trades": [],
"top_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "NVDA",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Intraday",
"confidence": 77,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+0.34%",
"expected_return_pct": 0.34,
"win_prob": 77.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 77.0,
"raw_total": 77.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 0.28,
"final_score": 1.21,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 1.6,
"entry": "Above 213.2 (ORB高点)",
"entry_source": "orb_high",
"entry_price": 213.08,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 212.57,
"high": 213.6,
"mid": 213.08,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 213.21
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 213–214",
"entry_source": "orb_high",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "210.5 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 210.5,
"target": "213.8 (预期高点)",
"target_source": "expected_high",
"target_price": 213.81,
"targets": [
"213.8 (预期高点)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 211.19,
"orb_high": 213.21,
"orb_low": 210.5,
"prev_high": 203.53,
"prev_low": 203.53,
"prior_close": 203.53,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.60%",
"RS vs SMH +3.25%",
"News 8",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +1.60% · RS vs SMH +3.25% · News 8 · Volume 信号",
"why_vs_runner_up": "NVDA RS +1.6% vs META +3.9%；ER 1.0% vs 0.9%；Win% 77 vs 71；relative strength",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.6,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.25,
"relative_weakness_score": -3.55,
"gap_pct": 4.17,
"beta_proxy": null,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 8,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.48,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(77%) × ER(1.0%) × rr_weight(1.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 213.81,
"expected_low": 204.63,
"expected_close": 208.95,
"current_price": 206.79,
"upside_pct": 3.39,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.04,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.60%",
"RS vs SMH +3.25%",
"News 8",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +1.60% · RS vs SMH +3.25% · News 8 · Volume 信号",
"gap_pct": 4.17,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.28,
"risk_reward_ratio": 3.57,
"reward_per_share": 0.73,
"risk_per_share": 2.58,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.28",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:3.57",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.28 · Risk:Reward 1:3.57",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "PPI · Oil Selloff",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $210.5",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 213.08,
"source": "orb_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 213.21,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 210.5,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 210.5,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 211.19,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 213.81,
"source": "expected_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_high",
"label": "Expected High",
"price": 213.81,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(213.81-213.08)/213.08=0.34%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 1.04,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 NVDA：在 213.08 附近入场，目标 213.81，预期 +0.34%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 81.0,
"shares": 38,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 98.04,
"win_usd": 27.74,
"loss_usd": 98.04,
"expected_value_usd": -1.19,
"risk_per_share": 2.58,
"reward_per_share": 0.73,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.28,
"risk_reward_ratio": 3.57,
"reward_per_share": 0.73,
"risk_per_share": 2.58,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.28",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:3.57",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.28 · Risk:Reward 1:3.57",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$28 / Loss -$98"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 81.0,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 38,
"max_loss_usd": 98.04,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 81.0% → 38 unit(s) → Max Loss $98.04"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "win_prob",
"label": "Highest Probability",
"primary_value": 77.0,
"runner_up_value": 73.0,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "catalyst",
"label": "Best Catalyst Alignment",
"primary_value": 9.0,
"runner_up_value": 3.0,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 71",
"ER 0.3% vs 0.9%",
"Score 1.21 vs 0.31",
"RS +1.6% vs +3.9%",
"R:R 0.28 vs 0.23"
],
"summary": "Why NVDA over META: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 0.3% vs 0.9% · Score 1.21 vs 0.31 · RS +1.6% vs +3.9% · R:R 0.28 vs 0.23"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 54",
"ER 0.3% vs 0.4%",
"Score 1.21 vs 0.3",
"RS +1.6% vs -0.2%"
],
"summary": "Why NVDA over TQQQ: Win% 77 vs 54 · ER 0.3% vs 0.4% · Score 1.21 vs 0.3 · RS +1.6% vs -0.2%"
},
{
"symbol": "AVGO",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 68",
"ER 0.3% vs 0.7%",
"Score 1.21 vs 0.25",
"RS +1.6% vs +0.9%"
],
"summary": "Why NVDA over AVGO: Win% 77 vs 68 · ER 0.3% vs 0.7% · Score 1.21 vs 0.25 · RS +1.6% vs +0.9%"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 73",
"ER 0.3% vs 0.6%",
"Score 1.21 vs 0.22",
"RS +1.6% vs +1.3%"
],
"summary": "Why NVDA over AMD: Win% 77 vs 73 · ER 0.3% vs 0.6% · Score 1.21 vs 0.22 · RS +1.6% vs +1.3%"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 54",
"ER 0.3% vs 0.1%",
"Score 1.21 vs 0.08",
"RS +1.6% vs +0.0%"
],
"summary": "Why NVDA over QQQ: Win% 77 vs 54 · ER 0.3% vs 0.1% · Score 1.21 vs 0.08 · RS +1.6% vs +0.0%"
}
],
"rank_summary": "NVDA ranked #1 because highest probability + best catalyst alignment",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 77.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": -1.19,
"win_scenario_usd": 27.74,
"loss_scenario_usd": 98.04,
"win_prob_pct": 77.0,
"display": "EV $-1 (win +$28 @ 77.0% · loss -$98)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 206.79,
"ideal_entry": 213.08,
"distance_pct": -2.95,
"remaining_er_pct": 3.39,
"live_expected_return_pct": 3.39,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 212.57,
"zone_high": 213.6,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
{
"rank": 2,
"symbol": "META",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Intraday",
"confidence": 71,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+4.06%",
"expected_return_pct": 4.06,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 71.0,
"raw_total": 71.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 8.42,
"final_score": 0.31,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 3.9,
"entry": "Above 661.2 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 661.38,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 661.25,
"high": 661.5,
"mid": 661.38,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 661.25
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 661.5
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 661.25–661.50",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "658.2 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 658.19,
"target": "688.3 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 688.26,
"targets": [
"688.3 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 661.25,
"orb_high": 661.5,
"orb_low": 658.19,
"prev_high": 656.73,
"prev_low": 656.73,
"prior_close": 656.73,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +3.90%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +3.90% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 3.9,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 5.55,
"relative_weakness_score": -7.23,
"gap_pct": 1.05,
"beta_proxy": null,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.48,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(71%) × ER(0.9%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 688.26,
"expected_low": 656.66,
"expected_close": 688.26,
"current_price": 682.36,
"upside_pct": 0.86,
"downside_risk_pct": 3.77,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +3.90%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +3.90% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"gap_pct": 1.05,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 8.43,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.12,
"reward_per_share": 26.88,
"risk_per_share": 3.19,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 8.43",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.12",
"display": "Reward/Risk 8.43 · Risk:Reward 1:0.12",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "PPI · Oil Selloff",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $658.19",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 661.38,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 661.25,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 661.5,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 658.19,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 98,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 658.19,
"weight_pct": 54.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "prev_low",
"label": "Yesterday Low",
"price": 656.73,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
},
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 661.25,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 688.26,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 688.26,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(688.26-661.38)/661.38=4.06%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 0.86,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 META：在 661.38 附近入场，目标 688.26，预期 +4.06%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 31,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 98.89,
"win_usd": 833.28,
"loss_usd": 98.89,
"expected_value_usd": 562.95,
"risk_per_share": 3.19,
"reward_per_share": 26.88,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 8.43,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.12,
"reward_per_share": 26.88,
"risk_per_share": 3.19,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 8.43",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.12",
"display": "Reward/Risk 8.43 · Risk:Reward 1:0.12",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$833 / Loss -$99"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 31,
"max_loss_usd": 98.89,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 31 unit(s) → Max Loss $98.89"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": 3.9,
"runner_up_value": 1.6,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 8.42,
"runner_up_value": 6.81,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 77",
"ER 4.1% vs 1.0%",
"Score 0.31 vs 1.21",
"RS +3.9% vs +1.6%",
"R:R 8.42 vs 3.25"
],
"summary": "Why META over NVDA: Win% 71 vs 77 · ER 4.1% vs 1.0% · Score 0.31 vs 1.21 · RS +3.9% vs +1.6% · R:R 8.42 vs 3.25"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 54",
"ER 4.1% vs 0.4%",
"Score 0.31 vs 0.3",
"RS +3.9% vs -0.2%",
"R:R 8.42 vs 6.81"
],
"summary": "Why META over TQQQ: Win% 71 vs 54 · ER 4.1% vs 0.4% · Score 0.31 vs 0.3 · RS +3.9% vs -0.2% · R:R 8.42 vs 6.81"
},
{
"symbol": "AVGO",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 68",
"ER 4.1% vs 0.7%",
"Score 0.31 vs 0.25",
"RS +3.9% vs +0.9%",
"R:R 8.42 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why META over AVGO: Win% 71 vs 68 · ER 4.1% vs 0.7% · Score 0.31 vs 0.25 · RS +3.9% vs +0.9% · R:R 8.42 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 73",
"ER 4.1% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.31 vs 0.22",
"RS +3.9% vs +1.3%",
"R:R 8.42 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why META over AMD: Win% 71 vs 73 · ER 4.1% vs 0.6% · Score 0.31 vs 0.22 · RS +3.9% vs +1.3% · R:R 8.42 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 54",
"ER 4.1% vs 0.1%",
"Score 0.31 vs 0.08",
"RS +3.9% vs +0.0%",
"R:R 8.42 vs 2.22"
],
"summary": "Why META over QQQ: Win% 71 vs 54 · ER 4.1% vs 0.1% · Score 0.31 vs 0.08 · RS +3.9% vs +0.0% · R:R 8.42 vs 2.22"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 71.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 562.95,
"win_scenario_usd": 833.28,
"loss_scenario_usd": 98.89,
"win_prob_pct": 71.0,
"display": "EV $+563 (win +$833 @ 71.0% · loss -$99)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 682.36,
"ideal_entry": 661.38,
"distance_pct": 3.17,
"remaining_er_pct": 0.86,
"live_expected_return_pct": 0.86,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 661.25,
"zone_high": 661.5,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
{
"rank": 3,
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "ETF",
"horizon": "Intraday",
"confidence": 54,
"confidence_stars": "★★☆☆☆",
"expected_move": "+5.36%",
"expected_return_pct": 5.36,
"win_prob": 54.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 54.0,
"raw_total": 54.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 6.08,
"final_score": 0.3,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": -0.17,
"entry": "Above 72.5 (现价)",
"entry_source": "current",
"entry_price": 72.58,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 72.52,
"high": 72.64,
"mid": 72.58,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "prev_high",
"label": "昨日高点",
"price": 72.64
},
{
"source": "prev_low",
"label": "昨日低点",
"price": 72.64
},
{
"source": "prior_close",
"label": "昨收",
"price": 72.64
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 72.52–72.64",
"entry_source": "current",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "71.9 (预期低点)",
"stop_source": "expected_low",
"stop_price": 71.94,
"target": "76.5 (预期高点)",
"target_source": "expected_high",
"target_price": 76.47,
"targets": [
"76.5 (预期高点)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 76.09,
"orb_high": 77.1,
"orb_low": 75.02,
"prev_high": 72.64,
"prev_low": 72.64,
"prior_close": 72.64,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_chain": "Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -0.17,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.48,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.72,
"gap_pct": 5.08,
"beta_proxy": null,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.48,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Index Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(0.4%) × rr_weight(1.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 76.47,
"expected_low": 71.94,
"expected_close": 72.79,
"current_price": 72.52,
"upside_pct": 5.45,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"why_factors": [
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_today": "Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"gap_pct": 5.08,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 6.08,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.16,
"reward_per_share": 3.89,
"risk_per_share": 0.64,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 6.08",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.16",
"display": "Reward/Risk 6.08 · Risk:Reward 1:0.16",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "PPI · Oil Selloff",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $71.94",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 72.58,
"source": "current",
"confidence": 79,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "prev_high",
"label": "Yesterday High",
"price": 72.64,
"weight_pct": 50.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
},
{
"source": "prior_close",
"label": "Prior Close",
"price": 72.64,
"weight_pct": 50.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 71.94,
"source": "expected_low",
"confidence": 55,
"reasons": []
},
"target": {
"price": 76.47,
"source": "expected_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_high",
"label": "Expected High",
"price": 76.47,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(76.47-72.58)/72.58=5.36%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 0.37,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 TQQQ：在 72.58 附近入场，目标 76.47，预期 +5.36%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 156,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 99.84,
"win_usd": 606.84,
"loss_usd": 99.84,
"expected_value_usd": 281.77,
"risk_per_share": 0.64,
"reward_per_share": 3.89,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 6.08,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.16,
"reward_per_share": 3.89,
"risk_per_share": 0.64,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 6.08",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.16",
"display": "Reward/Risk 6.08 · Risk:Reward 1:0.16",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$607 / Loss -$100"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 156,
"max_loss_usd": 99.84,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 156 unit(s) → Max Loss $99.84"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 6.25,
"runner_up_value": 6.17,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "liquidity",
"label": "Highest Liquidity",
"primary_value": 5.0,
"runner_up_value": 5.0,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 77",
"ER 5.4% vs 1.0%",
"Score 0.3 vs 1.21",
"RS -0.2% vs +1.6%",
"R:R 6.08 vs 3.25"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over NVDA: Win% 54 vs 77 · ER 5.4% vs 1.0% · Score 0.3 vs 1.21 · RS -0.2% vs +1.6% · R:R 6.08 vs 3.25"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 71",
"ER 5.4% vs 0.9%",
"Score 0.3 vs 0.31",
"RS -0.2% vs +3.9%",
"R:R 6.08 vs 0.23"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over META: Win% 54 vs 71 · ER 5.4% vs 0.9% · Score 0.3 vs 0.31 · RS -0.2% vs +3.9% · R:R 6.08 vs 0.23"
},
{
"symbol": "AVGO",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 68",
"ER 5.4% vs 0.7%",
"Score 0.3 vs 0.25",
"RS -0.2% vs +0.9%",
"R:R 6.08 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over AVGO: Win% 54 vs 68 · ER 5.4% vs 0.7% · Score 0.3 vs 0.25 · RS -0.2% vs +0.9% · R:R 6.08 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 73",
"ER 5.4% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.3 vs 0.22",
"RS -0.2% vs +1.3%",
"R:R 6.08 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over AMD: Win% 54 vs 73 · ER 5.4% vs 0.6% · Score 0.3 vs 0.22 · RS -0.2% vs +1.3% · R:R 6.08 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"ER 5.4% vs 0.1%",
"Score 0.3 vs 0.08",
"RS -0.2% vs +0.0%",
"R:R 6.08 vs 2.22"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over QQQ: ER 5.4% vs 0.1% · Score 0.3 vs 0.08 · RS -0.2% vs +0.0% · R:R 6.08 vs 2.22"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 54.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 281.77,
"win_scenario_usd": 606.84,
"loss_scenario_usd": 99.84,
"win_prob_pct": 54.0,
"display": "EV $+282 (win +$607 @ 54.0% · loss -$100)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 72.52,
"ideal_entry": 72.58,
"distance_pct": -0.08,
"remaining_er_pct": 5.45,
"live_expected_return_pct": 5.45,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 72.52,
"zone_high": 72.64,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
{
"rank": 4,
"symbol": "AVGO",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Intraday",
"confidence": 68,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+0.80%",
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"win_prob": 68.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
}
],
"total": 68.0,
"raw_total": 68.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 0.74,
"final_score": 0.25,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 0.89,
"entry": "Above 393.3 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 393.34,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 392.16,
"high": 394.52,
"mid": 393.34,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 393.34
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 392–395",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "389.1 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 389.11,
"target": "396.5 (预期高点)",
"target_source": "expected_high",
"target_price": 396.5,
"targets": [
"396.5 (预期高点)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 393.34,
"orb_high": 396.98,
"orb_low": 389.11,
"prev_high": null,
"prev_low": null,
"prior_close": 389.11,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +0.89%",
"RS vs SMH +2.54%",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +0.89% · RS vs SMH +2.54% · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.89,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 2.54,
"relative_weakness_score": -2.41,
"gap_pct": 1.85,
"beta_proxy": null,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.48,
"prior_day_change_pct": 1.7
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(68%) × ER(0.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 396.5,
"expected_low": 388.64,
"expected_close": 395.45,
"current_price": 392.57,
"upside_pct": 1.0,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +0.89%",
"RS vs SMH +2.54%",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +0.89% · RS vs SMH +2.54% · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"gap_pct": 1.85,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.75,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.33,
"reward_per_share": 3.16,
"risk_per_share": 4.23,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.75",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.33",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.75 · Risk:Reward 1:1.33",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "PPI · Oil Selloff",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $389.11",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 393.34,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 393.34,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 389.11,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 389.11,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 396.5,
"source": "expected_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_high",
"label": "Expected High",
"price": 396.5,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(396.5-393.34)/393.34=0.80%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 0.73,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 AVGO：在 393.34 附近入场，目标 396.5，预期 +0.80%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 90.5,
"shares": 23,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 97.29,
"win_usd": 72.68,
"loss_usd": 97.29,
"expected_value_usd": 18.29,
"risk_per_share": 4.23,
"reward_per_share": 3.16,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.75,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.33,
"reward_per_share": 3.16,
"risk_per_share": 4.23,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.75",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.33",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.75 · Risk:Reward 1:1.33",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$73 / Loss -$97"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 90.5,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 23,
"max_loss_usd": 97.29,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 90.5% → 23 unit(s) → Max Loss $97.29"
},
"why_wins_today": [],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"Win% 68 vs 77",
"ER 0.8% vs 1.0%",
"Score 0.25 vs 1.21",
"RS +0.9% vs +1.6%"
],
"summary": "Why AVGO over NVDA: Win% 68 vs 77 · ER 0.8% vs 1.0% · Score 0.25 vs 1.21 · RS +0.9% vs +1.6%"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"Win% 68 vs 71",
"ER 0.8% vs 0.9%",
"Score 0.25 vs 0.31",
"RS +0.9% vs +3.9%",
"R:R 0.74 vs 0.23"
],
"summary": "Why AVGO over META: Win% 68 vs 71 · ER 0.8% vs 0.9% · Score 0.25 vs 0.31 · RS +0.9% vs +3.9% · R:R 0.74 vs 0.23"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 68 vs 54",
"ER 0.8% vs 0.4%",
"Score 0.25 vs 0.3",
"RS +0.9% vs -0.2%"
],
"summary": "Why AVGO over TQQQ: Win% 68 vs 54 · ER 0.8% vs 0.4% · Score 0.25 vs 0.3 · RS +0.9% vs -0.2%"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 68 vs 73",
"ER 0.8% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.25 vs 0.22",
"RS +0.9% vs +1.3%"
],
"summary": "Why AVGO over AMD: Win% 68 vs 73 · ER 0.8% vs 0.6% · Score 0.25 vs 0.22 · RS +0.9% vs +1.3%"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 68 vs 54",
"ER 0.8% vs 0.1%",
"Score 0.25 vs 0.08",
"RS +0.9% vs +0.0%"
],
"summary": "Why AVGO over QQQ: Win% 68 vs 54 · ER 0.8% vs 0.1% · Score 0.25 vs 0.08 · RS +0.9% vs +0.0%"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 68.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 18.29,
"win_scenario_usd": 72.68,
"loss_scenario_usd": 97.29,
"win_prob_pct": 68.0,
"display": "EV $+18 (win +$73 @ 68.0% · loss -$97)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 392.57,
"ideal_entry": 393.34,
"distance_pct": -0.2,
"remaining_er_pct": 1.0,
"live_expected_return_pct": 1.0,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 392.16,
"zone_high": 394.52,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
{
"rank": 5,
"symbol": "AMD",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Intraday",
"confidence": 73,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+1.40%",
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"win_prob": 73.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
}
],
"total": 73.0,
"raw_total": 73.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 3.32,
"final_score": 0.22,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 1.34,
"entry": "Above 553.3 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 553.33,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 551.67,
"high": 554.99,
"mid": 553.33,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 553.33
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 552–555",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "551.0 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 551.0,
"target": "561.0 (预期高点)",
"target_source": "expected_high",
"target_price": 561.05,
"targets": [
"561.0 (预期高点)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 553.33,
"orb_high": 560.0,
"orb_low": 551.0,
"prev_high": null,
"prev_low": null,
"prior_close": 548.13,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.34%",
"RS vs SMH +2.99%",
"News 2",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +1.34% · RS vs SMH +2.99% · News 2 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.34,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 2.99,
"relative_weakness_score": -3.13,
"gap_pct": 1.6,
"beta_proxy": null,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 2,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.48,
"prior_day_change_pct": -2.63
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(73%) × ER(0.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 561.05,
"expected_low": 549.95,
"expected_close": 558.82,
"current_price": 555.5,
"upside_pct": 1.0,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.34%",
"RS vs SMH +2.99%",
"News 2",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +1.34% · RS vs SMH +2.99% · News 2 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"gap_pct": 1.6,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 3.31,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.3,
"reward_per_share": 7.72,
"risk_per_share": 2.33,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 3.31",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.30",
"display": "Reward/Risk 3.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.30",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "PPI · Oil Selloff",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $551.0",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 553.33,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 553.33,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Above Current",
"price": 555.5,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 551.0,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 551.0,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 553.33,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 561.05,
"source": "expected_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_high",
"label": "Expected High",
"price": 561.05,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(561.05-553.33)/553.33=1.40%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 AMD：在 553.33 附近入场，目标 561.05，预期 +1.40%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 42,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 97.86,
"win_usd": 324.24,
"loss_usd": 97.86,
"expected_value_usd": 210.27,
"risk_per_share": 2.33,
"reward_per_share": 7.72,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 3.31,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.3,
"reward_per_share": 7.72,
"risk_per_share": 2.33,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 3.31",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.30",
"display": "Reward/Risk 3.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.30",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$324 / Loss -$98"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 42,
"max_loss_usd": 97.86,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 42 unit(s) → Max Loss $97.86"
},
"why_wins_today": [],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"Win% 73 vs 77",
"ER 1.4% vs 1.0%",
"Score 0.22 vs 1.21",
"RS +1.3% vs +1.6%",
"R:R 3.32 vs 3.25"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over NVDA: Win% 73 vs 77 · ER 1.4% vs 1.0% · Score 0.22 vs 1.21 · RS +1.3% vs +1.6% · R:R 3.32 vs 3.25"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"Win% 73 vs 71",
"ER 1.4% vs 0.9%",
"Score 0.22 vs 0.31",
"RS +1.3% vs +3.9%",
"R:R 3.32 vs 0.23"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over META: Win% 73 vs 71 · ER 1.4% vs 0.9% · Score 0.22 vs 0.31 · RS +1.3% vs +3.9% · R:R 3.32 vs 0.23"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 73 vs 54",
"ER 1.4% vs 0.4%",
"Score 0.22 vs 0.3",
"RS +1.3% vs -0.2%"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over TQQQ: Win% 73 vs 54 · ER 1.4% vs 0.4% · Score 0.22 vs 0.3 · RS +1.3% vs -0.2%"
},
{
"symbol": "AVGO",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 73 vs 68",
"ER 1.4% vs 0.7%",
"Score 0.22 vs 0.25",
"RS +1.3% vs +0.9%",
"R:R 3.32 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over AVGO: Win% 73 vs 68 · ER 1.4% vs 0.7% · Score 0.22 vs 0.25 · RS +1.3% vs +0.9% · R:R 3.32 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 73 vs 54",
"ER 1.4% vs 0.1%",
"Score 0.22 vs 0.08",
"RS +1.3% vs +0.0%",
"R:R 3.32 vs 2.22"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over QQQ: Win% 73 vs 54 · ER 1.4% vs 0.1% · Score 0.22 vs 0.08 · RS +1.3% vs +0.0% · R:R 3.32 vs 2.22"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 73.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 210.27,
"win_scenario_usd": 324.24,
"loss_scenario_usd": 97.86,
"win_prob_pct": 73.0,
"display": "EV $+210 (win +$324 @ 73.0% · loss -$98)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 555.5,
"ideal_entry": 553.33,
"distance_pct": 0.39,
"remaining_er_pct": 1.0,
"live_expected_return_pct": 1.0,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 551.67,
"zone_high": 554.99,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
}
],
"watchlist_items": [
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"rank": 6,
"win_prob": 54.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.14,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 7,
"win_prob": 68.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.21,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.36% · RS vs SMH +3.01% · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"rank": 8,
"win_prob": 65.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.1,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.22% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"rank": 9,
"win_prob": 49.0,
"expected_return_pct": -0.03,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -0.61% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 10,
"win_prob": 44.0,
"expected_return_pct": -0.04,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -1.65% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
}
],
"advisory": true,
"swing": {
"symbol": "META",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"duration": "Swing (days–weeks)",
"confidence": 76,
"entry": "Near 680.3 (swing zone)",
"entry_source": "swing_zone",
"entry_price": 680.31,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 665.92,
"high": 682.36,
"mid": 680.31,
"display": "$665.92–$682.36",
"source": "swing_pullback"
},
"stop": "637.1 (1.75xATR)",
"stop_source": "1.75xATR",
"stop_price": 637.14,
"target": "737.9 (T1 ~8.5%)",
"target_source": "2xATR_or_5pct",
"target_price": 737.87,
"targets": [
{
"price": 737.87,
"label": "T1",
"pct": 8.46
},
{
"price": 766.65,
"label": "T2",
"pct": 12.69
}
],
"expected_return_pct": 8.46,
"expected_move": "+8.46%",
"risk_reward": 1.33,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"final_score": 0.31,
"swing_quality": 6.659,
"atr": 28.7814,
"atr_source": "ATR14",
"level_formula": "stop=1.5–2×ATR or prior-week extreme; T1=max(5%, 2×ATR); T2=min(15%, max(10%, 3×ATR))",
"current_price": 682.36,
"why": [
"高流动性波段标的 META",
"Prior day +0.0%",
"5D momentum +12.0%",
"RS vs QQQ +3.90%",
"Swing score 6.7"
],
"why_chain": "高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +12.0% · RS vs QQQ +3.90%",
"invalidation": "Close beyond stop $637.14 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)",
"trade_summary_cn": "波段做多 META：理想入场 $665.92–$682.36，止损 $637.14，目标 $737.87（约 +8.5%），持仓天数–数周",
"one_liner": "波段做多 META：理想入场 $665.92–$682.36，止损 $637.14，目标 $737.87（约 +8.5%），持仓天数–数周",
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"advisory": true,
"label": "长线 · Swing Trade",
"separate_from_intraday": true
}
},
"edges": {
"macro_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "今日有重大催化剂（含地缘/突发）：PPI、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy",
"catalyst": "PPI、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy"
},
"index_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "SPY 盘前/开盘 +0.22%"
},
"sector_edge": {
"edge": "NO",
"why": "板块相对强度不足"
},
"stock_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "AAPL RS+新闻+量能",
"symbol": "AAPL"
},
"advisory": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议"
},
"trade_candidates": [
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"win_prob": 77.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 77.0,
"raw_total": 77.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 1.04,
"expected_high": 213.81,
"expected_low": 204.63,
"expected_close": 208.95,
"current_price": 206.79,
"upside_pct": 3.39,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.04,
"risk_reward": 3.25,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 3.25,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.31,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 3.25",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"display": "Reward/Risk 3.25 · Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 1.21,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 4.17,
"relative_strength": 1.6,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.25,
"relative_weakness_score": -3.55,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.60%",
"RS vs SMH +3.25%",
"News 8",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.60% · RS vs SMH +3.25% · News 8 · Volume 信号",
"score": 12,
"news_count": 8,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.6,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.25,
"relative_weakness_score": -3.55,
"gap_pct": 4.17,
"beta_proxy": null,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 8,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.48,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(77%) × ER(1.0%) × rr_weight(1.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 1.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "NVDA RS +1.6% vs META +3.9%；ER 1.0% vs 0.9%；Win% 77 vs 71；relative strength",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 1,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"win_prob": 71.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 71.0,
"raw_total": 71.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.86,
"expected_high": 688.26,
"expected_low": 656.66,
"expected_close": 688.26,
"current_price": 682.36,
"upside_pct": 0.86,
"downside_risk_pct": 3.77,
"risk_reward": 0.23,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.23,
"risk_reward_ratio": 4.35,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.23",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:4.35",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.23 · Risk:Reward 1:4.35",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.31,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 1.05,
"relative_strength": 3.9,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 5.55,
"relative_weakness_score": -7.23,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +3.90%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +3.90% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 3,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 3.9,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 5.55,
"relative_weakness_score": -7.23,
"gap_pct": 1.05,
"beta_proxy": null,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.48,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(71%) × ER(0.9%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 2,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"win_prob": 54.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 54.0,
"raw_total": 54.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.37,
"expected_high": 76.47,
"expected_low": 71.94,
"expected_close": 72.79,
"current_price": 72.52,
"upside_pct": 5.45,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 6.81,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 6.81,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.15,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 6.81",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.15",
"display": "Reward/Risk 6.81 · Risk:Reward 1:0.15",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.3,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 5.08,
"relative_strength": -0.17,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.48,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.72,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 3,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -0.17,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.48,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.72,
"gap_pct": 5.08,
"beta_proxy": null,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.48,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Index Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(0.4%) × rr_weight(1.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 1.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 3,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "AVGO",
"win_prob": 68.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
}
],
"total": 68.0,
"raw_total": 68.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.73,
"expected_high": 396.5,
"expected_low": 388.64,
"expected_close": 395.45,
"current_price": 392.57,
"upside_pct": 1.0,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.0,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.25,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 1.85,
"relative_strength": 0.89,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 2.54,
"relative_weakness_score": -2.41,
"prior_day_change_pct": 1.7,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +0.89%",
"RS vs SMH +2.54%",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.89% · RS vs SMH +2.54% · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 2,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.89,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 2.54,
"relative_weakness_score": -2.41,
"gap_pct": 1.85,
"beta_proxy": null,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.48,
"prior_day_change_pct": 1.7
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(68%) × ER(0.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 4,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"win_prob": 73.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
}
],
"total": 73.0,
"raw_total": 73.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"expected_high": 561.05,
"expected_low": 549.95,
"expected_close": 558.82,
"current_price": 555.5,
"upside_pct": 1.0,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.0,
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"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
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},
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"RS vs SMH +2.99%",
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"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.34% · RS vs SMH +2.99% · News 2 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 2,
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"advisory": true,
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},
{
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"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
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}
],
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},
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"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
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"why": "Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
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},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
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{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
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},
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"expected_high": 287.85,
"expected_low": 282.15,
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"reward_per_share": null,
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"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.07,
"trade_action": "Pass",
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"gap_pct": 2.06,
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"RS vs SMH +3.01%",
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],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.36% · RS vs SMH +3.01% · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 1,
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"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(68%) × ER(0.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 7,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "SPY",
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{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
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{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 6.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
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{
"factor": "Volume",
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"points": 4.0
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},
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"expected_high": 755.58,
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"reward_risk_ratio": 0.79,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.27,
"reward_per_share": null,
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"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.79",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.27",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.79 · Risk:Reward 1:1.27",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.03,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 0.68,
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"relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.87,
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"RS vs QQQ +0.22%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.22% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 0,
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"rr_weight": 0.5,
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"rank": 8,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"win_prob": 49.0,
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{
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"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -10.0
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{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 49.0,
"raw_total": 49.0,
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},
"expected_return_pct": -0.03,
"expected_high": 406.59,
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"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.22",
"display": "Reward/Risk 4.53 · Risk:Reward 1:0.22",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
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"trade_action": "Pass",
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],
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -0.61% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 0,
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},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(49%) × ER(-0.0%) × rr_weight(1.5) / 100",
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"advisory": true,
"rank": 9,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
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{
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"points": -10.0
},
{
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"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 44.0,
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},
"expected_return_pct": -0.04,
"expected_high": 606.88,
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"risk_reward": 6.72,
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"risk_reward_ratio": 0.15,
"reward_per_share": null,
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"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 6.72",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.15",
"display": "Reward/Risk 6.72 · Risk:Reward 1:0.15",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.0,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 3.61,
"relative_strength": -1.65,
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"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
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"Volume 信号",
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],
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -1.65% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 0,
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"factor_breakdown": {
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"vix_change_pct": -0.48,
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},
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(44%) × ER(-0.0%) × rr_weight(1.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 1.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 10,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "MU",
"win_prob": 46.0,
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"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -4.0
}
],
"total": 46.0,
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"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": -0.15,
"expected_high": 986.47,
"expected_low": 966.93,
"expected_close": 975.27,
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"risk_reward": 1.0,
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"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
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"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.0,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 1.79,
"relative_strength": -0.65,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.0,
"relative_weakness_score": 0.05,
"prior_day_change_pct": -4.66,
"why_factors": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -0.65%",
"RS vs SMH +1.00%",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -0.65% · RS vs SMH +1.00% · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 0,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -0.65,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.0,
"relative_weakness_score": 0.05,
"gap_pct": 1.79,
"beta_proxy": null,
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"vix_change_pct": -0.48,
"prior_day_change_pct": -4.66
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(46%) × ER(-0.1%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 11,
"direction": "LONG"
}
]
},
"intraday": {
"s5": {
"driver_still_valid": true,
"action": "Hold"
},
"s6": {
"trade_valid": false,
"action": "N/A"
},
"s7": {
"actual_driver": "NFP + AI Chip Selloff",
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.6,
"bond": 0.048,
"oil": 0.044,
"macro": 0.4,
"other": 0.0,
"splits": {
"NFP": 0.4,
"AI Chip Selloff": 0.6
}
}
}
},
"trade_plan": {},
"actual": {},
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.6,
"bond": 0.048,
"oil": 0.044,
"macro": 0.4,
"other": 0.0,
"splits": {
"NFP": 0.4,
"AI Chip Selloff": 0.6
}
},
"labels": {
"actual_driver": "NFP + AI Chip Selloff",
"agent_driver": "PPI",
"agent_driver_type": "Macro",
"corrected_driver_from_verify": null,
"driver_splits": {
"NFP": 0.4,
"AI Chip Selloff": 0.6
},
"hypothesis_correct": "部分对",
"scenario_primary": "A",
"scenario_actual": "B",
"scenario_correct": false,
"trade_recommendation": "—",
"trade_direction": "NO TRADE",
"primary_symbol": "—",
"predicted_return_pct": null,
"prediction_error_pct": null
},
"surprise": "Split attribution: NFP 40% + Chip Selloff 60%; Bond mattered less than expected despite 10Y=4.62%",
"lesson": "当长期 AI Expansion Regime 与短期 Macro 利率利好（弱 NFP）冲突时，半导体风险仍可主导 Nasdaq；Dow/价值股可因利率改善走强；SMH -4.1% + QQQ -1.1%：半导体拖累纳指",
"playbook_refs": [
"Case-9"
],
"bayesian_drivers": {
"AI": 1.0,
"Bond": 0.0,
"Macro": 0.0,
"Oil": 0.0,
"Risk": 0.0
},
"data_gaps": []
}