Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 9
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 68.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 73.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 56.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 42.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SPY Avoid 65.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Macro — PPI

    Scheduled: Producer Price Index

  2. Secondary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE -1.8%

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

PPI + Oil Selloff

  • scheduled PPI 75 Scheduled: Producer Price Index
  • commodity Oil Selloff 73 XLE -1.8%
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 711.7 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 711.7 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 711.7 (昨日低点) and 711.7 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 NVDA
NVDA ranked #1 because highest probability + best catalyst alignment
LONG Intraday 77.0% 0.34% Reward/Risk 0.28 Entry Zone 213–214 EXPIRED
-2.95%
Abandon today
$210.5 $213.81 RS vs QQQ +1.60% · RS vs SMH +3.25% · News 8 · Volume 信号 PPI · Oil Selloff Close below stop $210.5
2 META LONG Intraday 71.0% 4.06% Reward/Risk 8.43 Entry Zone 661.25–661.50 EXPIRED
+3.17%
Abandon today
$658.19 $688.26 RS vs QQQ +3.90% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% PPI · Oil Selloff Close below stop $658.19
3 TQQQ LONG Intraday 54.0% 5.36% Reward/Risk 6.08 Entry Zone 72.52–72.64 EXPIRED
-0.08%
Abandon today
$71.94 $76.47 Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% PPI · Oil Selloff Close below stop $71.94
4 AVGO LONG Intraday 68.0% 0.8% Reward/Risk 0.75 Entry Zone 392–395 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$389.11 $396.5 RS vs QQQ +0.89% · RS vs SMH +2.54% · 上行空间 <1.0% PPI · Oil Selloff Close below stop $389.11
5 AMD LONG Intraday 73.0% 1.4% Reward/Risk 3.31 Entry Zone 552–555 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$551.0 $561.05 RS vs QQQ +1.34% · RS vs SMH +2.99% · News 2 · 上行空间 <1.0% PPI · Oil Selloff Close below stop $551.0

Watchlist

  • QQQ · Pass · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • ARM · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.36% · RS vs SMH +3.01% · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • SPY · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.22% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • TSLA · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -0.61% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • SMH · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -1.65% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
Bias Neutral ★★★☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE
Win Prob
Ideal Entry (frozen)
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target
R:R
P&L
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Macro — PPI
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.3 未达阈值
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty PPI、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • PPI / Oil Selloff Whipsaw
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $665.92–$682.36
Stop · Target $637.14 → $737.87 / T2 $766.65
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +12.0%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $637.14 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 META:理想入场 $665.92–$682.36,止损 $637.14,目标 $737.87(约 +8.5%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-15-001 · AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds?

Scenario B:若 PPI 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (0.73%)

Driver「Macro — PPI」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT
IEF
UUP

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →