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Step 7 — Attribution

16:10 ET · 涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log

Day 26
9/9 Steps
Agent 结论 真正 Driver:NFP · Attribution:AI 60% · Bond 9% · Hypothesis:部分对 · Scenario A→A 命中 NFP 主导;Scenario A→A 命中

Step 7 — S7 16:10 Evening Review

今日真正 Driver、Morning 对错、Decision Log

字段 内容
判断 真正 Driver:NFP · Attribution:AI 60% · Bond 9% · Hypothesis:部分对 · Scenario A→A 命中
置信度 N/A
一句话 NFP 主导;Scenario A→A 命中

Step 7 — Evening Review (Attribution Engine)

7.1 Outcome Attribution

Driver Contribution
AI / Semiconductor 60%
Bond / Rates 9%
Oil / Geo 0%
Macro Data 26%
Other 5%

7.2 True Driver

7.2b Scenario (P15)

7.3 Surprise

7.4 Decision Log

Field Value
Today's Driver NFP
Driver Splits NFP 32%
Hypothesis H-2026-08-07-001 · 部分对
Scenario (P15) 预测 A → 实际 A · 命中
Attribution NFP 32%
Surprise Bond mattered less than expected despite 10Y=4.63%; AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day
Trade Decision No Trade

7.5 Prediction Error (P18 learning stub)