Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 26
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MSFT Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLE Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 71.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 60.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MSFT Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMZN Avoid 71.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    nuclear — The Hidden Winners of the AI Power Crunch: 3 Utilities to Watch

  2. Secondary Macro — NFP

    Scheduled: Employment Situation (NFP — holiday-adjusted)

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 5 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

NFP + Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk

  • scheduled NFP 95 Scheduled: Employment Situation (NFP — holiday-adjusted)
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — The Hidden Winners of the AI Power Crunch: 3 Utilities to Watch
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — 2 Energy Stocks With More Hype Than Fundamentals Right Now
  • commodity Oil Selloff 78 XLE +0.0% · 5 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 717.3 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 717.3 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 717.3 (昨日低点) and 717.3 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
LONG Swing 72.0% 1.27% Reward/Risk 0.53 Entry Zone 292–294 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$285.98 $296.73 RS vs QQQ +5.74% · RS vs SMH +4.35% · Volume 信号 NFP · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $285.98 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • AMD · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.66% · RS vs SMH +1.27% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • MSFT · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.08% · News 3 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.39% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • XLE · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.01% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.07 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • AVGO · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.30% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE
Win Prob
Ideal Entry (frozen)
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target
R:R
P&L
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • Index Edge NO 指数方向不明或幅度不足
  • QQQ Pass Score 0.0 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty NFP、Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk

Today's Biggest Risk

NFP / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw

  • NFP / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction MSFT · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $487.47–$497.96
Stop · Target $469.46 → $532.48 / T2 $550.48
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 MSFT · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +10.8%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $469.46 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 MSFT:理想入场 $487.47–$497.96,止损 $469.46,目标 $532.48(约 +7.2%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-07-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 NFP 符合预期但 SMH 续跌 → QQQ < 昨低,放弃追多 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡(±0.25%)→ 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (-0.06%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 11.71% +11.77%
UUP -0.43% -0.37%
QQQ -0.06% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →