30 秒看懂：这不是炒股 App，也不会帮你下单。它每天自动做一套「晨会 → 盘中检查 → 收盘复盘」的研究报告，供你阅读和决策参考。
你唯一必须做的事：每个交易日收盘后花约 5 分钟去核对——告诉系统今天猜对了还是猜错了。核对越多，Agent 才会越用越准。
首页「Morning 一页纸 · 决策卡」每天 5 行 + Hypothesis。下面是一个假例子，帮你理解每行含义：
NYSE 休市日（周末、法定假日）没有当日报告，这是正常的——系统不会生成 Driver、决策卡或 Step 更新。
此时请点首页的「上一交易日」链接，查看最近一份完整报告。休市期间的新闻摘要（如有）仅供参考，不构成交易决策。
Day 26
| 事件 | 预定 | 状态 | 实际值 | Consensus | Surprise | 典型影响（参考） | 实测反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 08:30 | ✅ | 158,858 | 175.0 | +90676.0% ⬆️ | NFP 大超预期 → 收益率+、金价压、成长承压 | QQQ +0.1% / SMH +0.4% (5min post-release) |
| Unemployment Rate | 08:30 | ✅ | 4.1% | 4.1% | +0.0% | 失业率意外上行 → 降息预期 → 债券+ | QQQ +0.1% / SMH +0.4% (5min post-release) |
H-2026-08-07-001Surprise：Bond mattered less than expected despite 10Y=4.63%; AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day
Lesson：NFP 日优先看 Macro Driver 链条：数据 → 利率 → 成长/价值轮动
{
"date": "2026-08-07",
"features": {
"dgs10": 4.63,
"dgs2": null,
"vix": 15.22,
"vix_chg": 0.46,
"qqq_chg": 0.72,
"smh_chg": 2.25,
"nvda_chg": 1.94,
"spy_chg": 0.0,
"oil_chg": 0.0,
"dxy_chg": -0.06,
"breadth_proxy": 0.8571428571428571,
"qqq_gap": -0.03,
"news_headline_count": 23,
"news_bearish_ratio": 0.167,
"news_ai_mentions": 22,
"news_macro_mentions": 6,
"news_oil_mentions": 5,
"news_risk_mentions": 0
},
"regime": {
"label": "AI Expansion",
"confidence": 0.82
},
"hypothesis": {
"id": "H-2026-08-07-001",
"statement": "弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售？（Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险）",
"evidence": [
"VIX=15.2 (low fear)",
"Breadth 71% (broad participation)"
],
"counter_evidence": [],
"confidence": 0.91,
"status": "待验证"
},
"morning": {
"bias": "Bullish Bias",
"total": 4,
"driver_type": "Political",
"daily_driver": "Geopolitical Risk",
"best_opportunity": {
"direction": "NO TRADE",
"symbol": "—",
"instrument": "—",
"horizon": "—",
"confidence": 45,
"entry": "—",
"stop": "—",
"target": "—",
"targets": [],
"duration": "—",
"why": [
"今日无任何标的达到交易阈值"
],
"why_chain": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"avoid": [],
"one_liner": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"advisory": true
},
"best_trades": {
"primary": null,
"secondary": null,
"watchlist": null,
"index_trade": "NO TRADE",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"stock_trades": [],
"top_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "ARM",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"confidence": 72,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+1.27%",
"expected_return_pct": 1.27,
"win_prob": 72.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 72.0,
"raw_total": 72.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 0.53,
"final_score": 0.77,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 5.74,
"entry": "Above 293.0 (ORB高点)",
"entry_source": "orb_high",
"entry_price": 293.0,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 292.12,
"high": 293.88,
"mid": 293.0,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 293.0
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 292–294",
"entry_source": "orb_high",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "286.0 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 285.98,
"target": "296.7 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 296.73,
"targets": [
"296.7 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 291.14,
"orb_high": 293.0,
"orb_low": 285.98,
"prev_high": 274.58,
"prev_low": 274.58,
"prior_close": 274.58,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +5.74%",
"RS vs SMH +4.35%",
"Volume 信号",
"Expected R 0.10 < 0.15 (EV gate)"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +5.74% · RS vs SMH +4.35% · Volume 信号",
"why_vs_runner_up": "ARM RS +5.7% vs AMD +2.7%；ER 2.1% vs 0.8%；higher beta (83.0 vs 39.0)；relative strength",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 5.74,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.35,
"relative_weakness_score": -8.35,
"gap_pct": 5.76,
"beta_proxy": 83.0,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.46,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(72%) × ER(2.1%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 296.73,
"expected_low": 284.35,
"expected_close": 296.73,
"current_price": 290.54,
"upside_pct": 2.13,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.13,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +5.74%",
"RS vs SMH +4.35%",
"Volume 信号",
"Expected R 0.10 < 0.15 (EV gate)"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +5.74% · RS vs SMH +4.35% · Volume 信号",
"gap_pct": 5.76,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.53,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.89,
"reward_per_share": 3.73,
"risk_per_share": 7.02,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.53",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.89",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.53 · Risk:Reward 1:1.89",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "NFP · Geopolitical Risk",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $285.98 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 293.0,
"source": "orb_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 293.0,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 285.98,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 285.98,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 296.73,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 296.73,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(296.73-293.0)/293.0=1.27%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.13,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 ARM：在 293.0 附近入场，目标 296.73，预期 +1.27%",
"expected_r": 0.1016,
"rr_below_hard_min": true,
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 41.0,
"shares": 14,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 98.28,
"win_usd": 52.22,
"loss_usd": 98.28,
"expected_value_usd": 10.08,
"risk_per_share": 7.02,
"reward_per_share": 3.73,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.53,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.89,
"reward_per_share": 3.73,
"risk_per_share": 7.02,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.53",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.89",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.53 · Risk:Reward 1:1.89",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$52 / Loss -$98"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 41.0,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 14,
"max_loss_usd": 98.28,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 41.0% → 14 unit(s) → Max Loss $98.28"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": 5.74,
"runner_up_value": 2.66,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 4.26,
"runner_up_value": 2.14,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 3,
"dimension": "win_prob",
"label": "Highest Probability",
"primary_value": 72.0,
"runner_up_value": 72.0,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"ER 1.3% vs 0.8%",
"Score 0.77 vs 0.29",
"RS +5.7% vs +2.7%"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over AMD: ER 1.3% vs 0.8% · Score 0.77 vs 0.29 · RS +5.7% vs +2.7%"
},
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 72 vs 71",
"ER 1.3% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.77 vs 0.21",
"RS +5.7% vs +2.1%"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over MSFT: Win% 72 vs 71 · ER 1.3% vs 0.6% · Score 0.77 vs 0.21 · RS +5.7% vs +2.1%"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 72 vs 71",
"ER 1.3% vs 0.4%",
"Score 0.77 vs 0.13",
"RS +5.7% vs +1.4%",
"R:R 0.53 vs 0.44"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over SMH: Win% 72 vs 71 · ER 1.3% vs 0.4% · Score 0.77 vs 0.13 · RS +5.7% vs +1.4% · R:R 0.53 vs 0.44"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 72 vs 66",
"ER 1.3% vs 0.3%",
"Score 0.77 vs 0.11",
"RS +5.7% vs +1.0%"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over XLE: Win% 72 vs 66 · ER 1.3% vs 0.3% · Score 0.77 vs 0.11 · RS +5.7% vs +1.0%"
},
{
"symbol": "AVGO",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 72 vs 71",
"ER 1.3% vs 0.3%",
"Score 0.77 vs 0.1",
"RS +5.7% vs +1.3%"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over AVGO: Win% 72 vs 71 · ER 1.3% vs 0.3% · Score 0.77 vs 0.1 · RS +5.7% vs +1.3%"
}
],
"rank_summary": "ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 72.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 10.08,
"win_scenario_usd": 52.22,
"loss_scenario_usd": 98.28,
"win_prob_pct": 72.0,
"display": "EV $+10 (win +$52 @ 72.0% · loss -$98)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 290.54,
"ideal_entry": 293.0,
"distance_pct": -0.84,
"remaining_er_pct": 2.13,
"live_expected_return_pct": 2.13,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 292.12,
"zone_high": 293.88,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
}
],
"watchlist_items": [
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 2,
"win_prob": 72.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.81,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +2.66% · RS vs SMH +1.27% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%（软门槛）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"rank": 3,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +2.08% · News 3 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%（软门槛）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 4,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.36,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.39% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.02 < 0.15（EV门禁）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"rank": 5,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.33,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.01% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.07 < 0.15（EV门禁）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "AVGO",
"rank": 6,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.29,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.30% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%（软门槛）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
}
],
"advisory": true,
"swing": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"duration": "Swing (days–weeks)",
"confidence": 76,
"entry": "Near 496.5 (swing zone)",
"entry_source": "swing_zone",
"entry_price": 496.47,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 487.47,
"high": 497.96,
"mid": 496.47,
"display": "$487.47–$497.96",
"source": "swing_pullback"
},
"stop": "469.5 (1.75xATR)",
"stop_source": "1.75xATR",
"stop_price": 469.46,
"target": "532.5 (T1 ~7.3%)",
"target_source": "2xATR_or_5pct",
"target_price": 532.48,
"targets": [
{
"price": 532.48,
"label": "T1",
"pct": 7.25
},
{
"price": 550.48,
"label": "T2",
"pct": 10.88
}
],
"expected_return_pct": 7.25,
"expected_move": "+7.25%",
"risk_reward": 1.33,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"final_score": 0.21,
"swing_quality": 7.471,
"atr": 18.0043,
"atr_source": "ATR14",
"level_formula": "stop=1.5–2×ATR or prior-week extreme; T1=max(5%, 2×ATR); T2=min(15%, max(10%, 3×ATR))",
"current_price": 497.96,
"why": [
"高流动性波段标的 MSFT",
"Prior day +0.0%",
"5D momentum +10.8%",
"RS vs QQQ +2.08%",
"News/3 catalyst hints",
"Swing score 7.5"
],
"why_chain": "高流动性波段标的 MSFT · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +10.8% · RS vs QQQ +2.08%",
"invalidation": "Close beyond stop $469.46 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)",
"trade_summary_cn": "波段做多 MSFT：理想入场 $487.47–$497.96，止损 $469.46，目标 $532.48（约 +7.2%），持仓天数–数周",
"one_liner": "波段做多 MSFT：理想入场 $487.47–$497.96，止损 $469.46，目标 $532.48（约 +7.2%），持仓天数–数周",
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"advisory": true,
"label": "长线 · Swing Trade",
"separate_from_intraday": true
}
},
"edges": {
"macro_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "今日有重大催化剂（含地缘/突发）：NFP、Geopolitical Risk、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy",
"catalyst": "NFP、Geopolitical Risk、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy"
},
"index_edge": {
"edge": "NO",
"why": "指数方向不明或幅度不足"
},
"sector_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "SMH 领先 QQQ +1.43%",
"sector": "Semiconductor"
},
"stock_edge": {
"edge": "NO",
"why": "无单票 RS+新闻+量能共振"
},
"advisory": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议"
},
"trade_candidates": [
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"win_prob": 72.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 72.0,
"raw_total": 72.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 2.13,
"expected_high": 296.73,
"expected_low": 284.35,
"expected_close": 296.73,
"current_price": 290.54,
"upside_pct": 2.13,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.13,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.44,
"final_score": 0.77,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 5.76,
"relative_strength": 5.74,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.35,
"relative_weakness_score": -8.35,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +5.74%",
"RS vs SMH +4.35%",
"Volume 信号",
"Expected R 0.10 < 0.15 (EV gate)"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +5.74% · RS vs SMH +4.35% · Volume 信号",
"score": 8,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 5.74,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.35,
"relative_weakness_score": -8.35,
"gap_pct": 5.76,
"beta_proxy": 83.0,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.46,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(72%) × ER(2.1%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "ARM RS +5.7% vs AMD +2.7%；ER 2.1% vs 0.8%；higher beta (83.0 vs 39.0)；relative strength",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 1,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"win_prob": 72.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 72.0,
"raw_total": 72.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.81,
"expected_high": 499.21,
"expected_low": 489.28,
"expected_close": 499.21,
"current_price": 495.2,
"upside_pct": 0.81,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.2,
"risk_reward": 0.68,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.68,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.47,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.68",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.47",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.68 · Risk:Reward 1:1.47",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.2096,
"final_score": 0.29,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 1.57,
"relative_strength": 2.66,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.27,
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"oil": 0.0,
"macro": 0.257,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {
"NFP": 0.317
}
}
}
},
"trade_plan": {},
"actual": {},
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.604,
"bond": 0.089,
"oil": 0.0,
"macro": 0.257,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {
"NFP": 0.317
}
},
"labels": {
"actual_driver": "NFP",
"agent_driver": "Geopolitical Risk",
"agent_driver_type": "Political",
"corrected_driver_from_verify": null,
"driver_splits": {
"NFP": 0.317380522993688
},
"hypothesis_correct": "部分对",
"scenario_primary": "A",
"scenario_actual": "A",
"scenario_correct": true,
"trade_recommendation": "—",
"trade_direction": "NO TRADE",
"primary_symbol": "—",
"predicted_return_pct": null,
"prediction_error_pct": null
},
"surprise": "Bond mattered less than expected despite 10Y=4.63%; AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day",
"lesson": "NFP 日优先看 Macro Driver 链条：数据 → 利率 → 成长/价值轮动",
"playbook_refs": [
"Case-25"
],
"bayesian_drivers": {
"AI": 1.0,
"Bond": 0.0,
"Macro": 0.0,
"Oil": 0.0,
"Risk": 0.0
},
"data_gaps": []
}