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Step 1 — Morning Research

8:00 ET · R0 → P1–P16 → P17 Hypothesis → P18 Trade Candidates (v2)

Day 6
9/9 Steps

四路 Edge

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Macro Edge YES

今日有重大催化剂(含地缘/突发):Trade Policy

Index Edge YES

QQQ 盘前/开盘 +1.24%

Sector Edge YES

SMH 领先 QQQ +0.33%

Stock Edge NO

无单票 RS+新闻+量能共振

Index Trade:NO TRADE

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.39 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Trade Policy、Trade Policy

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Trade Policy

  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Generative AI in Oil & Gas Market to Surge: CAGR of 16.9% Expected by 2030

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  2. Secondary Momentum — AI Momentum

    SMH +1.6% leading

  3. Tertiary Momentum — Index Momentum

    QQQ +1.2%

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 711.4 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 711.4 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 711.4 (昨日低点) and 711.4 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk
LONG 54.0% 2.6% Reward/Risk 4.31 Entry Zone 323–325 PREMARKET
+0.00%
Entry still valid
$322.22 $332.62 RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37% · 昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 Trade Policy · Trade Policy Close below stop $322.22
2 AMD LONG 54.0% 2.52% Reward/Risk 2.53 Entry Zone 541–544 PREMARKET
+0.02%
Entry still valid
$537.06 $556.16 RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00% · 昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 Trade Policy · Trade Policy Close below stop $537.06
3 META LONG 66.0% 2.82% Reward/Risk 1.23 Entry Zone 644–648 PREMARKET
+0.97%
Entry still valid
$631.48 $664.57 RS vs QQQ +6.96% · Volume 信号 Trade Policy · Trade Policy Close below stop $631.48

Watchlist

  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.43% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • TSLA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.99% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.33% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • MU · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -2.49% · 昨日强势 +3.2% 今日 gap 可控 · News 2 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★☆☆☆ ARM LONG ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk 54.0% Trade
  • ★★☆☆☆ AMD LONG 54.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ META LONG 66.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 60.0% Avoid

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.39 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Trade Policy、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Trade Policy / Trade Policy Whipsaw

  • Trade Policy / Trade Policy Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

🥇 Intraday Primary · #1

Sector Edge

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

#1:ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk

方向 DirectionLONG
标的 SymbolARM
胜率 Win Prob54.0% (rules)
预期收益 Expected Return +$430.44 / -$99.96 (Ideal:从入场到目标,已验算:(332.62-324.18)/324.18=2.60%)
盈亏比 Reward/Risk 4.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.23
置信度 Confidence54% ★★☆☆☆
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 323–325 (Above 324.2 (现价) / current)
Entry Status PREMARKET · Current $324.18 · Dist +0.00% Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live Entry still valid
止损价 Stop $322.22 (322.2 (ORB低点) / orb_low)
目标价 Target $332.62 (332.6 (预期收盘) / 卖出/获利) expected_close

做多 ARM:在 324.18 附近入场,目标 332.62,预期 +2.60%

final = win_prob(54%) × ER(2.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Why vs #2:ARM RS -2.4% vs AMD -2.0%;ER 2.6% vs 2.5%;relative weakness play

Why
  • RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37%
  • 昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控
  • Gap 未过度延伸
  • News 1

#1:ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Largest Expected Range 5.2 vs 5.07
  2. Best Risk Reward 4.3 vs 1.58

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS -16.0
  • Trend +10.0
  • Gap +5.0
  • Catalyst +5.0
  • Total 54.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$430.44
失败 Loss -$99.96
每股价差 Reward $8.44 / Risk $1.96 Reward/Risk 4.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.23

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 100.0% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $99.96

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $324.18 Confidence 67 current
  • VWAP $325.4 100%
Stop $322.22 Confidence 77 orb_low
  • ORB Low $322.22 100%
Target $332.62 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $332.62 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • AMD (#2)
    • ER 2.6% vs 2.5%
    • Score 0.7 vs 0.68
    • RS -2.4% vs -2.0%
    • R:R 4.3 vs 1.0
  • META (#3)
    • Win% 54 vs 66
    • ER 2.6% vs 1.8%
    • Score 0.7 vs 0.61
    • RS -2.4% vs +7.0%
    • R:R 4.3 vs 0.57
  • TQQQ (#4)
    • Win% 54 vs 66
    • ER 2.6% vs 0.8%
    • Score 0.7 vs 0.39
    • RS -2.4% vs +2.4%
    • R:R 4.3 vs 1.58
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TSLA (#5)
    • Win% 54 vs 66
    • ER 2.6% vs 0.6%
    • Score 0.7 vs 0.2
    • RS -2.4% vs +2.0%
    • R:R 4.3 vs 0.75
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • SMH (#6)
    • Win% 54 vs 60
    • ER 2.6% vs 0.2%
    • Score 0.7 vs 0.08
    • RS -2.4% vs +0.3%
    • R:R 4.3 vs 1.13
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Today's Biggest Risk

Trade Policy / Trade Policy Whipsaw

  • Trade Policy / Trade Policy Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Expected Value

EV $+186 (win +$430 @ 54.0% · loss -$100)

「做多 ARM:在 324.18 附近入场,目标 332.62,预期 +2.60%」

P18 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Rank Symbol Win Prob Expected Return R:R Final Score Trade
1 ARM 54.0% 2.6% 1.0 0.7 Small
详情

#1 ARM · Small · Sector Edge · $324.18

final = win_prob(54%) × ER(2.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 54.0% · ER 2.6% · R:R 1.0 · Score 0.7

Why vs #2:ARM RS -2.4% vs AMD -2.0%;ER 2.6% vs 2.5%;relative weakness play

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS -16.0 · Trend 10.0 · Gap 5.0 · Catalyst 5.0 → 54.0%

  • RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37%
  • 昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控
  • Gap 未过度延伸
  • News 1
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:-2.37%
  • Gap:0.8%
  • Beta:-0.91
  • Volume:No · News:1
2 AMD 54.0% 2.51% 1.0 0.68 Small
详情

#2 AMD · Small · Sector Edge · $542.56

final = win_prob(54%) × ER(2.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 54.0% · ER 2.51% · R:R 1.0 · Score 0.68

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS -16.0 · Trend 10.0 · Gap 5.0 · Catalyst 5.0 → 54.0%

  • RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00%
  • 昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控
  • Gap 未过度延伸
  • News 1
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:-2.0%
  • Gap:-0.6%
  • Beta:-0.61
  • Volume:No · News:1
3 META 66.0% 1.83% 0.57 0.61 Small
详情

#3 META · Small · Relative Strength · $652.6

final = win_prob(66%) × ER(1.8%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 66.0% · ER 1.83% · R:R 0.57 · Score 0.61

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS 12.0 · Volume 4.0 → 66.0%

  • RS vs QQQ +6.96%
  • Volume 信号
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:6.96%
  • Gap:5.52%
  • Beta:6.61
  • Volume:Yes · News:0
4 TQQQ 66.0% 0.75% 1.58 0.39 Pass
详情

#4 TQQQ · Pass · Relative Strength · $75.39

final = win_prob(66%) × ER(0.7%) × rr_weight(0.79) / 100

Win 66.0% · ER 0.75% · R:R 1.58 · Score 0.39

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS 12.0 · Volume 4.0 → 66.0%

  • RS vs QQQ +2.43%
  • Volume 信号
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:2.43%
  • Gap:3.27%
  • Beta:2.96
  • Volume:Yes · News:0
5 TSLA 66.0% 0.6% 0.75 0.2 Pass
详情

#5 TSLA · Pass · Relative Strength · $406.81

final = win_prob(66%) × ER(0.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 66.0% · ER 0.6% · R:R 0.75 · Score 0.2

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS 12.0 · Volume 4.0 → 66.0%

  • RS vs QQQ +1.99%
  • Volume 信号
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:1.99%
  • Gap:2.52%
  • Beta:2.6
  • Volume:Yes · News:0
6 SMH 60.0% 0.23% 1.13 0.08 Pass
详情

#6 SMH · Pass · Sector Edge · $602.29

final = win_prob(60%) × ER(0.2%) × rr_weight(0.56) / 100

Win 60.0% · ER 0.23% · R:R 1.13 · Score 0.08

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS 6.0 · Volume 4.0 → 60.0%

  • RS vs QQQ +0.33%
  • Volume 信号
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:0.33%
  • Gap:2.09%
  • Beta:1.27
  • Volume:Yes · News:0
7 MU 49.0% 0.28% 1.0 0.07 Pass
详情

#7 MU · Pass · Sector Edge · $979.22

final = win_prob(49%) × ER(0.3%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 49.0% · ER 0.28% · R:R 1.0 · Score 0.07

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS -16.0 · Trend 10.0 · Catalyst 5.0 → 49.0%

  • RS 弱于 QQQ -2.49%
  • 昨日强势 +3.2% 今日 gap 可控
  • News 2
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:-2.49%
  • Gap:-2.46%
  • Beta:-1.01
  • Volume:No · News:2
8 QQQ 59.0% 0.09% 0.62 0.03 Pass
详情

#8 QQQ · Pass · Index Edge · $720.24

final = win_prob(59%) × ER(0.1%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 59.0% · ER 0.09% · R:R 0.62 · Score 0.03

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · Gap 5.0 · Volume 4.0 → 59.0%

  • Gap 未过度延伸
  • Volume 信号
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:0.0%
  • Gap:1.11%
  • Beta:1.0
  • Volume:Yes · News:0
9 SPY 59.0% -0.03% 0.62 0.0 Pass
详情

#9 SPY · Pass · Relative Weakness · $751.16

final = win_prob(59%) × ER(-0.0%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 59.0% · ER -0.03% · R:R 0.62 · Score 0.0

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · Gap 5.0 · Volume 4.0 → 59.0%

  • Gap 未过度延伸
  • Volume 信号
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:-0.47%
  • Gap:0.74%
  • Beta:0.62
  • Volume:Yes · News:0
10 AVGO 49.0% -0.62% 1.0 0.0 Pass
详情

#10 AVGO · Pass · Sector Edge · $397.55

final = win_prob(49%) × ER(-0.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 49.0% · ER -0.62% · R:R 1.0 · Score 0.0

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS -16.0 · Trend 10.0 · Gap 5.0 → 49.0%

  • RS 弱于 QQQ -2.13%
  • 昨日强势 +2.9% 今日 gap 可控
  • Gap 未过度延伸
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:-2.13%
  • Gap:-0.88%
  • Beta:-0.72
  • Volume:No · News:0
11 NVDA 48.0% -0.99% 0.74 0.0 Pass
详情

#11 NVDA · Pass · Sector Edge · $201.3

final = win_prob(48%) × ER(-1.0%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

Win 48.0% · ER -0.99% · R:R 0.74 · Score 0.0

Win% breakdown: Base 50.0 · RS -16.0 · Gap 5.0 · Catalyst 5.0 · Volume 4.0 → 48.0%

  • RS 弱于 QQQ -2.62%
  • Gap 未过度延伸
  • News 8
  • Volume 信号
  • 上行空间 <1.0%
Factor inputs
  • RS vs QQQ:-2.62%
  • Gap:-1.42%
  • Beta:-1.11
  • Volume:Yes · News:8

结论总表

收盘核对 →

R0 + P1–P17 · 判断 / 置信度 / 一句话

ID Part 判断 置信度 一句话
R0 R0 Regime Engine Regime:AI Expansion 82% AI 扩张 Regime;Macro 数据日可暂时 dominate 日内 Driver
P1 P1 昨天发生了什么? Risk-on 65% DIA 0.43% · SPY 0.77% · QQQ 1.24% · SMH 1.57%
P2 P2 昨天为什么涨/跌? Driver:Trade Policy 70% Trade Policy → Bond → Dollar → Sector → Index
P3 P3 今天市场最关心什么? N/A N/A LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出
P4 P4 债券 Bond Growth:Bearish · Score:-1 70% Trade Policy → 10Y Up → Headwind
P5 P5 美元 Dollar 对 QQQ:Positive · Score:1 65% Trade Policy → DXY Down → QQQ Positive
P6 P6 波动率 VIX 恐慌:Low · Score:1 75% VIX Down,Risk-on 可信
P7 P7 板块轮动 Sector 最强板块:SMH · 轮动:普涨 70% SMH 相对最强,XLE 最弱
P8 P8 AI 主题 Bullish Long-term (AI Expansion Regime) · Bullish 60% AI 主题偏多:SMH +1.57% · NVDA -1.38%
P9 P9 期权 Options 买期权:No · 0DTE:No · Call:No · Put:No N/A 事件日/节前 → 全部 NO
P10 P10 今日 Driver Primary:Political · Trade Policy 75% Political: Trade Policy → Momentum: AI Momentum → Momentum: Index Momentum
P11 P11 综合打分 Scoring Bias:Bullish Bias · Total:+4 67% Bullish Bias,综合得分 +4
P12 P12 市场状态 Regime N/A N/A LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出
P13 P13 Edge 优势 Edge:3/4 YES 79% 宏观 Trade Policy · 板块 Semiconductor
P14 P14 市场偏好 Preference AI > Defensive · Growth > Value · Momentum > Mean Reversion 65% 板块:SMH 最强 / XLE 最弱
P15 P15 情景 Scenario 最可能 Scenario:A 65% 围绕 Political(Trade Policy)的可验证情景
P16 P16 交易计划 Trading Plan 计划:Trade 65% IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
P17 P17 Hypothesis Hypothesis:H-2026-07-10-001 · 待验证 91% AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable
P18 P18 Trade Candidates Primary:ARM · LONG · ER +2.60% · conf 54% 54% 做多 ARM:在 324.18 附近入场,目标 332.62,预期 +2.60%
仅规则引擎 R0 · AI Expansion Bias Bullish Bias · Total 4

P17 Hypothesis

H-2026-07-10-001 · 待验证 · conf 91.0%

AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Evidence

  • VIX=15.9 (low fear)
  • NVDA +3.3%
  • SMH +3.0%
  • Breadth 86% (broad participation)

Counter-evidence

Morning Research — 2026-07-10

Step 1 · 8:00 AM ET · ADVISORY ONLY — 不构成投资建议

综合 Bias:Bullish Bias · Total:+4

🥇 Best Opportunity Today

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

P18 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Rank Symbol Win% ER% R:R Score Trade
1 ARM 54.0 2.6 1.0 0.7 Small
2 AMD 54.0 2.51 1.0 0.68 Small
3 META 66.0 1.83 0.57 0.61 Small
4 TQQQ 66.0 0.75 1.58 0.39 Pass
5 TSLA 66.0 0.6 0.75 0.2 Pass
6 SMH 60.0 0.23 1.13 0.08 Pass
7 MU 49.0 0.28 1.0 0.07 Pass
8 QQQ 59.0 0.09 0.62 0.03 Pass
9 SPY 59.0 -0.03 0.62 0.0 Pass
10 AVGO 49.0 -0.62 1.0 0.0 Pass
11 NVDA 48.0 -0.99 0.74 0.0 Pass

结论总表

ID Part 判断 置信度 一句话
R0 R0 Regime Engine Regime:AI Expansion 82% AI 扩张 Regime;Macro 数据日可暂时 dominate 日内 Driver
P1 P1 昨天发生了什么? Risk-on 65% DIA 0.43% · SPY 0.77% · QQQ 1.24% · SMH 1.57%
P2 P2 昨天为什么涨/跌? Driver:Trade Policy 70% Trade Policy → Bond → Dollar → Sector → Index
P3 P3 今天市场最关心什么? N/A N/A LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出
P4 P4 债券 Bond Growth:Bearish · Score:-1 70% Trade Policy → 10Y Up → Headwind
P5 P5 美元 Dollar 对 QQQ:Positive · Score:1 65% Trade Policy → DXY Down → QQQ Positive
P6 P6 波动率 VIX 恐慌:Low · Score:1 75% VIX Down,Risk-on 可信
P7 P7 板块轮动 Sector 最强板块:SMH · 轮动:普涨 70% SMH 相对最强,XLE 最弱
P8 P8 AI 主题 Bullish Long-term (AI Expansion Regime) · Bullish 60% AI 主题偏多:SMH +1.57% · NVDA -1.38%
P9 P9 期权 Options 买期权:No · 0DTE:No · Call:No · Put:No N/A 事件日/节前 → 全部 NO
P10 P10 今日 Driver Primary:Political · Trade Policy 75% Political: Trade Policy → Momentum: AI Momentum → Momentum: Index Momentum
P11 P11 综合打分 Scoring Bias:Bullish Bias · Total:+4 67% Bullish Bias,综合得分 +4
P12 P12 市场状态 Regime N/A N/A LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出
P13 P13 Edge 优势 Edge:3/4 YES 79% 宏观 Trade Policy · 板块 Semiconductor
P14 P14 市场偏好 Preference AI > Defensive · Growth > Value · Momentum > Mean Reversion 65% 板块:SMH 最强 / XLE 最弱
P15 P15 情景 Scenario 最可能 Scenario:A 65% 围绕 Political(Trade Policy)的可验证情景
P16 P16 交易计划 Trading Plan 计划:Trade 65% IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
P17 P17 Hypothesis Hypothesis:H-2026-07-10-001 · 待验证 91% AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable
P18 P18 Trade Candidates Primary:ARM · LONG · ER +2.60% · conf 54% 54% 做多 ARM:在 324.18 附近入场,目标 332.62,预期 +2.60%

详细分析

以下为各 Part 展开说明;结论摘要见上表。

R0 Regime Engine

决策级市场时代(AI Expansion / Macro Fear / …),先于 P1–P16

字段 内容
判断 Regime:AI Expansion
置信度 82%
一句话 AI 扩张 Regime;Macro 数据日可暂时 dominate 日内 Driver

(无补充分析)

P1 昨天发生了什么?

汇总上一交易日指数、宏观与新闻事实,给出昨日定性(Risk-on/off/Neutral/分化)

字段 内容
判断 Risk-on
置信度 65%
一句话 DIA 0.43% · SPY 0.77% · QQQ 1.24% · SMH 1.57%

P2 昨天为什么涨/跌?

找出昨日最大 Driver,写清因果链(事实 vs 解释的分界)

字段 内容
判断 Driver:Trade Policy
置信度 70%
一句话 Trade Policy → Bond → Dollar → Sector → Index

P3 今天市场最关心什么?

列出今日/本周重要事件与重要性,确定本周首要关注

字段 内容
判断 N/A
置信度 N/A
一句话 LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出

(无补充分析)

P4 债券 Bond

2Y/10Y 利率方向 → Growth 判断,输出 Morning Score

字段 内容
判断 Growth:Bearish · Score:-1
置信度 70%
一句话 Trade Policy → 10Y Up → Headwind

P5 美元 Dollar

美元指数强弱 → 对 Risk/QQQ 的影响,输出 Morning Score

字段 内容
判断 对 QQQ:Positive · Score:1
置信度 65%
一句话 Trade Policy → DXY Down → QQQ Positive

P6 波动率 VIX

VIX 升降与恐慌情绪 → Risk-on 是否可信,输出 Morning Score

字段 内容
判断 恐慌:Low · Score:1
置信度 75%
一句话 VIX Down,Risk-on 可信

P7 板块轮动 Sector

昨日各板块相对强弱,判断最强板块与轮动类型(普涨/普跌/分化)

字段 内容
判断 最强板块:SMH · 轮动:普涨
置信度 70%
一句话 SMH 相对最强,XLE 最弱

P8 AI 主题

AI/Mag7/半导体叙事:偏多、中性还是偏空,及主要理由与风险

字段 内容
判断 Bullish Long-term (AI Expansion Regime) · Bullish
置信度 60%
一句话 AI 主题偏多:SMH +1.57% · NVDA -1.38%

P9 期权 Options

四问:适合买期权/0DTE/Call/Put(YES/NO),事件日禁止 0DTE

字段 内容
判断 买期权:No · 0DTE:No · Call:No · Put:No
置信度 N/A
一句话 事件日/节前 → 全部 NO

P10 今日 Driver

Driver Type(分类)+ Driver(具体标签);无宏观催化剂日禁止写 Macro

字段 内容
判断 Primary:Political · Trade Policy
置信度 75%
一句话 Political: Trade Policy → Momentum: AI Momentum → Momentum: Index Momentum

P11 综合打分 Scoring

宏观/债券/美元/VIX/AI 等因子加权 → Total 与 Bias(牛/熊/中性)

字段 内容
判断 Bias:Bullish Bias · Total:+4
置信度 67%
一句话 Bullish Bias,综合得分 +4

P12 市场状态 Regime

趋势、波动、风险、流动性 → 今天是不是趋势确认日

字段 内容
判断 N/A
置信度 N/A
一句话 LLM 未运行或失败,仅规则引擎输出

(无补充分析)

P13 Edge 优势

四路 Edge:Macro / Index / Sector / Stock(独立 YES/NO,非单一 gate)

字段 内容
判断 Edge:3/4 YES
置信度 79%
一句话 宏观 Trade Policy · 板块 Semiconductor

P14 市场偏好 Preference

结构化偏好(AI > Defensive、Growth > Value、Momentum > Mean Reversion),非新闻罗列

字段 内容
判断 AI > Defensive · Growth > Value · Momentum > Mean Reversion
置信度 65%
一句话 板块:SMH 最强 / XLE 最弱

P15 情景 Scenario

三种 Scenario,每行:Scenario X:若 触发条件 → 市场反应

字段 内容
判断 最可能 Scenario:A
置信度 65%
一句话 围绕 Political(Trade Policy)的可验证情景

Scenario A:若 Trade Policy 弱于预期 + QQQ > 昨高 → Call

Scenario B:若 Trade Policy 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃

Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

P16 交易计划 Trading Plan

IF-THEN 执行计划,每行:Scenario X:若 条件 → 行动(买 Call / 放弃 / 不追)

字段 内容
判断 计划:Trade
置信度 65%
一句话 IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets

Conditions to go LONG - IF QQQ > 711.4 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)

Conditions to go SHORT - IF QQQ < 711.4 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade - IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets - IF QQQ between 711.4 (昨日低点) and 711.4 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range

P17 Hypothesis

可验证假设:Evidence / Counter / 状态(待验证 → 盘中更新)

字段 内容
判断 Hypothesis:H-2026-07-10-001 · 待验证
置信度 91%
一句话 AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Hypothesis IDH-2026-07-10-001

陈述:AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

状态:待验证

Evidence

Counter-evidence

P18 Trade Candidates

Win Prob · Expected Return · R:R · Final Score 排名 + Primary/Secondary/Watchlist(ADVISORY)

字段 内容
判断 Primary:ARM · LONG · ER +2.60% · conf 54%
置信度 54%
一句话 做多 ARM:在 324.18 附近入场,目标 332.62,预期 +2.60%
Rank Symbol Win% ER% R:R Score Trade
1 ARM 54.0 2.6 1.0 0.7 Small
2 AMD 54.0 2.51 1.0 0.68 Small
3 META 66.0 1.83 0.57 0.61 Small
4 TQQQ 66.0 0.75 1.58 0.39 Pass
5 TSLA 66.0 0.6 0.75 0.2 Pass
6 SMH 60.0 0.23 1.13 0.08 Pass
7 MU 49.0 0.28 1.0 0.07 Pass
8 QQQ 59.0 0.09 0.62 0.03 Pass
9 SPY 59.0 -0.03 0.62 0.0 Pass
10 AVGO 49.0 -0.62 1.0 0.0 Pass
11 NVDA 48.0 -0.99 0.74 0.0 Pass