Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 6
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★☆☆☆ ARM LONG ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk 54.0% Trade
  • ★★☆☆☆ AMD LONG 54.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ META LONG 66.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 60.0% Avoid

#1:ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  2. Secondary Momentum — AI Momentum

    SMH +1.6% leading

  3. Tertiary Momentum — Index Momentum

    QQQ +1.2%

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Trade Policy

  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Generative AI in Oil & Gas Market to Surge: CAGR of 16.9% Expected by 2030

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 711.4 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 711.4 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 711.4 (昨日低点) and 711.4 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk
LONG 54.0% 2.6% Reward/Risk 4.31 Entry Zone 323–325 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$322.22 $332.62 RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37% · 昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 Trade Policy · Trade Policy Close below stop $322.22
2 AMD LONG 54.0% 2.52% Reward/Risk 2.53 Entry Zone 541–544 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$537.06 $556.16 RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00% · 昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 Trade Policy · Trade Policy Close below stop $537.06
3 META LONG 66.0% 2.82% Reward/Risk 1.23 Entry Zone 644–648 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$631.48 $664.57 RS vs QQQ +6.96% · Volume 信号 Trade Policy · Trade Policy Close below stop $631.48

Watchlist

  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.43% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • TSLA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.99% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.33% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • MU · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -2.49% · 昨日强势 +3.2% 今日 gap 可控 · News 2 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade ARM · LONG · Stock · ER +2.60%
Direction LONG Swing
Win Prob 54.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 323–325 Above 324.2 (现价) current
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $324.18 Dist +0.00% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +2.60%
Stop / Target $322.22 → $332.62
R:R Reward/Risk 4.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.23
P&L +$430.44 / -$99.96
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Trade Policy
Confidence 54%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37% · 昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸

#1:ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Largest Expected Range 5.2 vs 5.07
  2. Best Risk Reward 4.3 vs 1.58

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS -16.0
  • Trend +10.0
  • Gap +5.0
  • Catalyst +5.0
  • Total 54.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$430.44
失败 Loss -$99.96
每股价差 Reward $8.44 / Risk $1.96 Reward/Risk 4.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.23

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 100.0% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $99.96

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $324.18 Confidence 67 current
  • VWAP $325.4 100%
Stop $322.22 Confidence 77 orb_low
  • ORB Low $322.22 100%
Target $332.62 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $332.62 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • AMD (#2)
    • ER 2.6% vs 2.5%
    • Score 0.7 vs 0.68
    • RS -2.4% vs -2.0%
    • R:R 4.3 vs 1.0
  • META (#3)
    • Win% 54 vs 66
    • ER 2.6% vs 1.8%
    • Score 0.7 vs 0.61
    • RS -2.4% vs +7.0%
    • R:R 4.3 vs 0.57
  • TQQQ (#4)
    • Win% 54 vs 66
    • ER 2.6% vs 0.8%
    • Score 0.7 vs 0.39
    • RS -2.4% vs +2.4%
    • R:R 4.3 vs 1.58
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TSLA (#5)
    • Win% 54 vs 66
    • ER 2.6% vs 0.6%
    • Score 0.7 vs 0.2
    • RS -2.4% vs +2.0%
    • R:R 4.3 vs 0.75
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • SMH (#6)
    • Win% 54 vs 60
    • ER 2.6% vs 0.2%
    • Score 0.7 vs 0.08
    • RS -2.4% vs +0.3%
    • R:R 4.3 vs 1.13
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.39 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Trade Policy、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Trade Policy / Trade Policy Whipsaw

  • Trade Policy / Trade Policy Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Expected Value

EV $+186 (win +$430 @ 54.0% · loss -$100)

「做多 ARM:在 324.18 附近入场,目标 332.62,预期 +2.60%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →
Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-10-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Trade Policy 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Sector Edge

Why vs #2:ARM RS -2.4% vs AMD -2.0%;ER 2.6% vs 2.5%;relative weakness play

final = win_prob(54%) × ER(2.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37%
  • 昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控
  • Gap 未过度延伸
  • News 1

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (0.77%)

Driver「Political — Trade Policy」→ SMH, NVDA, SPY

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
SMH -3.92% -4.69%
NVDA 7.87% +7.10%
SPY 3.02% +2.25%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →