30 秒看懂：这不是炒股 App，也不会帮你下单。它每天自动做一套「晨会 → 盘中检查 → 收盘复盘」的研究报告，供你阅读和决策参考。
你唯一必须做的事：每个交易日收盘后花约 5 分钟去核对——告诉系统今天猜对了还是猜错了。核对越多，Agent 才会越用越准。
首页「Morning 一页纸 · 决策卡」每天 5 行 + Hypothesis。下面是一个假例子，帮你理解每行含义：
NYSE 休市日（周末、法定假日）没有当日报告，这是正常的——系统不会生成 Driver、决策卡或 Step 更新。
此时请点首页的「上一交易日」链接，查看最近一份完整报告。休市期间的新闻摘要（如有）仅供参考，不构成交易决策。
Day 6
H-2026-07-10-001Surprise：AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day
Lesson：AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量
{
"date": "2026-07-10",
"features": {
"dgs10": 4.56,
"dgs2": null,
"vix": 15.89,
"vix_chg": 0.32,
"qqq_chg": 2.03,
"smh_chg": 3.04,
"nvda_chg": 3.27,
"spy_chg": 0.0,
"oil_chg": 0.0,
"dxy_chg": -0.07,
"breadth_proxy": 0.8571428571428571,
"qqq_gap": 1.11,
"news_headline_count": 26,
"news_bearish_ratio": 0.2,
"news_ai_mentions": 70,
"news_macro_mentions": 6,
"news_oil_mentions": 1,
"news_risk_mentions": 1
},
"regime": {
"label": "AI Expansion",
"confidence": 0.82
},
"hypothesis": {
"id": "H-2026-07-10-001",
"statement": "AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable",
"evidence": [
"VIX=15.9 (low fear)",
"NVDA +3.3%",
"SMH +3.0%",
"Breadth 86% (broad participation)"
],
"counter_evidence": [],
"confidence": 0.91,
"status": "待验证"
},
"morning": {
"bias": "Bullish Bias",
"total": 4,
"driver_type": "Political",
"daily_driver": "Trade Policy",
"best_opportunity": {
"direction": "LONG",
"symbol": "ARM",
"instrument": "Stock",
"confidence": 54,
"confidence_stars": "★★☆☆☆",
"entry": "Above 324.2 (现价)",
"entry_source": "current",
"entry_price": 324.18,
"stop": "322.2 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 322.22,
"target": "332.6 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 332.62,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"targets": [
"332.6 (预期收盘)"
],
"duration": "Swing",
"why": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37%",
"昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 1"
],
"why_chain": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37% · 昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1",
"why_vs_runner_up": "ARM RS -2.4% vs AMD -2.0%；ER 2.6% vs 2.5%；relative weakness play",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -2.37,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -2.7,
"relative_weakness_score": 3.99,
"gap_pct": 0.8,
"beta_proxy": -0.91,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 8.14
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(2.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"win_prob": 54.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -16.0
},
{
"factor": "Trend",
"key": "trend",
"points": 10.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
}
],
"total": 54.0,
"raw_total": 54.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 2.6,
"expected_move": "+2.60%",
"return_calculation": "(332.62-324.18)/324.18=2.60%",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 ARM：在 324.18 附近入场，目标 332.62，预期 +2.60%",
"risk_reward": 4.3,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 4.31,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.23,
"reward_per_share": 8.44,
"risk_per_share": 1.96,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 4.31",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.23",
"display": "Reward/Risk 4.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.23",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"entry_zone": {
"low": 323.21,
"high": 325.15,
"mid": 324.18,
"anchors": [],
"display": "Entry Zone 323–325",
"entry_source": "current",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"rank_summary": "ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 54.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"similar_days": null,
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 186.46,
"win_scenario_usd": 430.44,
"loss_scenario_usd": 99.96,
"win_prob_pct": 54.0,
"display": "EV $+186 (win +$430 @ 54.0% · loss -$100)"
},
"final_score": 0.7,
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 325.4,
"orb_high": 340.52,
"orb_low": 322.22,
"prev_high": null,
"prev_low": null,
"prior_close": 327.87,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 324.18,
"source": "current",
"confidence": 67,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 325.4,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 322.22,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 322.22,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 332.62,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 332.62,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 51,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 99.96,
"win_usd": 430.44,
"loss_usd": 99.96,
"expected_value_usd": 186.46,
"risk_per_share": 1.96,
"reward_per_share": 8.44,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 4.31,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.23,
"reward_per_share": 8.44,
"risk_per_share": 1.96,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 4.31",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.23",
"display": "Reward/Risk 4.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.23",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$430 / Loss -$100"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 51,
"max_loss_usd": 99.96,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $99.96"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 5.2,
"runner_up_value": 5.07,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 4.3,
"runner_up_value": 1.58,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.6% vs 2.5%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.68",
"RS -2.4% vs -2.0%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over AMD: ER 2.6% vs 2.5% · Score 0.7 vs 0.68 · RS -2.4% vs -2.0% · R:R 4.3 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.6% vs 1.8%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.61",
"RS -2.4% vs +7.0%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 0.57"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over META: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.6% vs 1.8% · Score 0.7 vs 0.61 · RS -2.4% vs +7.0% · R:R 4.3 vs 0.57"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.6% vs 0.8%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.39",
"RS -2.4% vs +2.4%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 1.58",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over TQQQ: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.6% vs 0.8% · Score 0.7 vs 0.39 · RS -2.4% vs +2.4% · R:R 4.3 vs 1.58 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.6% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.2",
"RS -2.4% vs +2.0%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 0.75",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over TSLA: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.6% vs 0.6% · Score 0.7 vs 0.2 · RS -2.4% vs +2.0% · R:R 4.3 vs 0.75 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 60",
"ER 2.6% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.08",
"RS -2.4% vs +0.3%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 1.13",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over SMH: Win% 54 vs 60 · ER 2.6% vs 0.2% · Score 0.7 vs 0.08 · RS -2.4% vs +0.3% · R:R 4.3 vs 1.13 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"avoid": [],
"one_liner": "做多 ARM：在 324.18 附近入场，目标 332.62，预期 +2.60%",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"advisory": true
},
"best_trades": {
"primary": {
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "ARM",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"confidence": 54,
"confidence_stars": "★★☆☆☆",
"expected_move": "+2.60%",
"expected_return_pct": 2.6,
"win_prob": 54.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -16.0
},
{
"factor": "Trend",
"key": "trend",
"points": 10.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
}
],
"total": 54.0,
"raw_total": 54.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 4.3,
"final_score": 0.7,
"trade_action": "Small",
"relative_strength": -2.37,
"entry": "Above 324.2 (现价)",
"entry_source": "current",
"entry_price": 324.18,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 323.21,
"high": 325.15,
"mid": 324.18,
"anchors": [],
"display": "Entry Zone 323–325",
"entry_source": "current",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "322.2 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 322.22,
"target": "332.6 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 332.62,
"targets": [
"332.6 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 325.4,
"orb_high": 340.52,
"orb_low": 322.22,
"prev_high": null,
"prev_low": null,
"prior_close": 327.87,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"why": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37%",
"昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 1"
],
"why_chain": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37% · 昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1",
"why_vs_runner_up": "ARM RS -2.4% vs AMD -2.0%；ER 2.6% vs 2.5%；relative weakness play",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -2.37,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -2.7,
"relative_weakness_score": 3.99,
"gap_pct": 0.8,
"beta_proxy": -0.91,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 8.14
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(2.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 332.62,
"expected_low": 315.74,
"expected_close": 332.62,
"current_price": 324.18,
"upside_pct": 2.6,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.6,
"why_factors": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37%",
"昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 1"
],
"why_today": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37% · 昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1",
"gap_pct": 0.8,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 4.31,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.23,
"reward_per_share": 8.44,
"risk_per_share": 1.96,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 4.31",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.23",
"display": "Reward/Risk 4.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.23",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Trade Policy · Trade Policy",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $322.22",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 324.18,
"source": "current",
"confidence": 67,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 325.4,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 322.22,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 322.22,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 332.62,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 332.62,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(332.62-324.18)/324.18=2.60%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.6,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 ARM：在 324.18 附近入场，目标 332.62，预期 +2.60%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 51,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 99.96,
"win_usd": 430.44,
"loss_usd": 99.96,
"expected_value_usd": 186.46,
"risk_per_share": 1.96,
"reward_per_share": 8.44,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 4.31,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.23,
"reward_per_share": 8.44,
"risk_per_share": 1.96,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 4.31",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.23",
"display": "Reward/Risk 4.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.23",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$430 / Loss -$100"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 51,
"max_loss_usd": 99.96,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $99.96"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 5.2,
"runner_up_value": 5.07,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 4.3,
"runner_up_value": 1.58,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.6% vs 2.5%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.68",
"RS -2.4% vs -2.0%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over AMD: ER 2.6% vs 2.5% · Score 0.7 vs 0.68 · RS -2.4% vs -2.0% · R:R 4.3 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.6% vs 1.8%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.61",
"RS -2.4% vs +7.0%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 0.57"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over META: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.6% vs 1.8% · Score 0.7 vs 0.61 · RS -2.4% vs +7.0% · R:R 4.3 vs 0.57"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.6% vs 0.8%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.39",
"RS -2.4% vs +2.4%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 1.58",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over TQQQ: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.6% vs 0.8% · Score 0.7 vs 0.39 · RS -2.4% vs +2.4% · R:R 4.3 vs 1.58 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.6% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.2",
"RS -2.4% vs +2.0%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 0.75",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over TSLA: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.6% vs 0.6% · Score 0.7 vs 0.2 · RS -2.4% vs +2.0% · R:R 4.3 vs 0.75 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 60",
"ER 2.6% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.08",
"RS -2.4% vs +0.3%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 1.13",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over SMH: Win% 54 vs 60 · ER 2.6% vs 0.2% · Score 0.7 vs 0.08 · RS -2.4% vs +0.3% · R:R 4.3 vs 1.13 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"rank_summary": "ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 54.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 186.46,
"win_scenario_usd": 430.44,
"loss_scenario_usd": 99.96,
"win_prob_pct": 54.0,
"display": "EV $+186 (win +$430 @ 54.0% · loss -$100)"
},
"levels_valid": true,
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 324.18,
"ideal_entry": 324.18,
"distance_pct": 0.0,
"new_plan": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 323.21,
"zone_high": 325.15,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
"secondary": {
"rank": 2,
"symbol": "AMD",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"confidence": 54,
"confidence_stars": "★★☆☆☆",
"expected_move": "+2.52%",
"expected_return_pct": 2.52,
"win_prob": 54.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -16.0
},
{
"factor": "Trend",
"key": "trend",
"points": 10.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
}
],
"total": 54.0,
"raw_total": 54.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 2.53,
"final_score": 0.68,
"trade_action": "Small",
"relative_strength": -2.0,
"entry": "Above 542.5 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 542.47,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 540.84,
"high": 544.1,
"mid": 542.47,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 542.47
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 541–544",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "537.1 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 537.06,
"target": "556.2 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 556.16,
"targets": [
"556.2 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 542.47,
"orb_high": 550.98,
"orb_low": 537.06,
"prev_high": null,
"prev_low": null,
"prior_close": 546.72,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"why": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00%",
"昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 1"
],
"why_chain": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00% · 昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -2.0,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -2.33,
"relative_weakness_score": 3.4,
"gap_pct": -0.6,
"beta_proxy": -0.61,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 7.89
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(2.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 556.16,
"expected_low": 528.96,
"expected_close": 556.16,
"current_price": 542.56,
"upside_pct": 2.51,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.51,
"why_factors": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00%",
"昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 1"
],
"why_today": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00% · 昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1",
"gap_pct": -0.6,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 2.53,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.4,
"reward_per_share": 13.69,
"risk_per_share": 5.41,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 2.53",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.40",
"display": "Reward/Risk 2.53 · Risk:Reward 1:0.40",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Trade Policy · Trade Policy",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $537.06",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 542.47,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 542.47,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Above Current",
"price": 542.56,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 537.06,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 537.06,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 556.16,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 556.16,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(556.16-542.47)/542.47=2.52%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.51,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 AMD：在 542.47 附近入场，目标 556.16，预期 +2.52%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 97.6,
"shares": 18,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 97.38,
"win_usd": 246.42,
"loss_usd": 97.38,
"expected_value_usd": 88.27,
"risk_per_share": 5.41,
"reward_per_share": 13.69,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 2.53,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.4,
"reward_per_share": 13.69,
"risk_per_share": 5.41,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 2.53",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.40",
"display": "Reward/Risk 2.53 · Risk:Reward 1:0.40",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$246 / Loss -$97"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 97.6,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 18,
"max_loss_usd": 97.38,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 97.6% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $97.38"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 2.53,
"runner_up_value": 1.58,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.5% vs 2.6%",
"Score 0.68 vs 0.7",
"RS -2.0% vs -2.4%",
"R:R 2.53 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over ARM: ER 2.5% vs 2.6% · Score 0.68 vs 0.7 · RS -2.0% vs -2.4% · R:R 2.53 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.5% vs 1.8%",
"Score 0.68 vs 0.61",
"RS -2.0% vs +7.0%",
"R:R 2.53 vs 0.57"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over META: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.5% vs 1.8% · Score 0.68 vs 0.61 · RS -2.0% vs +7.0% · R:R 2.53 vs 0.57"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.5% vs 0.8%",
"Score 0.68 vs 0.39",
"RS -2.0% vs +2.4%",
"R:R 2.53 vs 1.58",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over TQQQ: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.5% vs 0.8% · Score 0.68 vs 0.39 · RS -2.0% vs +2.4% · R:R 2.53 vs 1.58 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.5% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.68 vs 0.2",
"RS -2.0% vs +2.0%",
"R:R 2.53 vs 0.75",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over TSLA: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.5% vs 0.6% · Score 0.68 vs 0.2 · RS -2.0% vs +2.0% · R:R 2.53 vs 0.75 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 60",
"ER 2.5% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.68 vs 0.08",
"RS -2.0% vs +0.3%",
"R:R 2.53 vs 1.13",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over SMH: Win% 54 vs 60 · ER 2.5% vs 0.2% · Score 0.68 vs 0.08 · RS -2.0% vs +0.3% · R:R 2.53 vs 1.13 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 54.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 88.27,
"win_scenario_usd": 246.42,
"loss_scenario_usd": 97.38,
"win_prob_pct": 54.0,
"display": "EV $+88 (win +$246 @ 54.0% · loss -$97)"
},
"levels_valid": true,
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 542.56,
"ideal_entry": 542.47,
"distance_pct": 0.02,
"new_plan": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 540.84,
"zone_high": 544.1,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
"watchlist": {
"rank": 3,
"symbol": "META",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"confidence": 66,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+2.82%",
"expected_return_pct": 2.82,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 1.23,
"final_score": 0.61,
"trade_action": "Small",
"relative_strength": 6.96,
"entry": "Above 646.3 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 646.34,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 644.4,
"high": 648.28,
"mid": 646.34,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 646.34
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 644–648",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "631.5 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 631.48,
"target": "664.6 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 664.57,
"targets": [
"664.6 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 646.34,
"orb_high": 643.0,
"orb_low": 631.48,
"prev_high": 603.12,
"prev_low": 603.12,
"prior_close": 603.12,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +6.96%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +6.96% · Volume 信号",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 6.96,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 6.63,
"relative_weakness_score": -10.94,
"gap_pct": 5.52,
"beta_proxy": 6.61,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(1.8%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 664.57,
"expected_low": 631.48,
"expected_close": 664.57,
"current_price": 652.6,
"upside_pct": 1.83,
"downside_risk_pct": 3.24,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +6.96%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +6.96% · Volume 信号",
"gap_pct": 5.52,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.23,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.81,
"reward_per_share": 18.23,
"risk_per_share": 14.86,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.23",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.81",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.23 · Risk:Reward 1:0.81",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Trade Policy · Trade Policy",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $631.48",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 646.34,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 646.34,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 643.0,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 631.48,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 631.48,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 664.57,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 664.57,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(664.57-646.34)/646.34=2.82%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 1.83,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 META：在 646.34 附近入场，目标 664.57，预期 +2.82%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 38.8,
"shares": 6,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 89.16,
"win_usd": 109.38,
"loss_usd": 89.16,
"expected_value_usd": 41.88,
"risk_per_share": 14.86,
"reward_per_share": 18.23,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.23,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.81,
"reward_per_share": 18.23,
"risk_per_share": 14.86,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.23",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.81",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.23 · Risk:Reward 1:0.81",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$109 / Loss -$89"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 38.8,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 6,
"max_loss_usd": 89.16,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 38.8% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $89.16"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": 6.96,
"runner_up_value": 2.43,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "win_prob",
"label": "Highest Probability",
"primary_value": 66.0,
"runner_up_value": 66.0,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 54",
"ER 2.8% vs 2.6%",
"Score 0.61 vs 0.7",
"RS +7.0% vs -2.4%",
"R:R 1.23 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why META over ARM: Win% 66 vs 54 · ER 2.8% vs 2.6% · Score 0.61 vs 0.7 · RS +7.0% vs -2.4% · R:R 1.23 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 54",
"ER 2.8% vs 2.5%",
"Score 0.61 vs 0.68",
"RS +7.0% vs -2.0%",
"R:R 1.23 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why META over AMD: Win% 66 vs 54 · ER 2.8% vs 2.5% · Score 0.61 vs 0.68 · RS +7.0% vs -2.0% · R:R 1.23 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.8% vs 0.8%",
"Score 0.61 vs 0.39",
"RS +7.0% vs +2.4%",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why META over TQQQ: ER 2.8% vs 0.8% · Score 0.61 vs 0.39 · RS +7.0% vs +2.4% · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.8% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.61 vs 0.2",
"RS +7.0% vs +2.0%",
"R:R 1.23 vs 0.75",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why META over TSLA: ER 2.8% vs 0.6% · Score 0.61 vs 0.2 · RS +7.0% vs +2.0% · R:R 1.23 vs 0.75 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 60",
"ER 2.8% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.61 vs 0.08",
"RS +7.0% vs +0.3%",
"R:R 1.23 vs 1.13",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why META over SMH: Win% 66 vs 60 · ER 2.8% vs 0.2% · Score 0.61 vs 0.08 · RS +7.0% vs +0.3% · R:R 1.23 vs 1.13 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 66.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 41.88,
"win_scenario_usd": 109.38,
"loss_scenario_usd": 89.16,
"win_prob_pct": 66.0,
"display": "EV $+42 (win +$109 @ 66.0% · loss -$89)"
},
"levels_valid": true,
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 652.6,
"ideal_entry": 646.34,
"distance_pct": 0.97,
"new_plan": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 644.4,
"zone_high": 648.28,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
"index_trade": "NO TRADE",
"threshold_message": null,
"stock_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "ARM",
"direction": "LONG",
"confidence": 54,
"expected_move": "+2.60%",
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37% · 昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1"
},
{
"rank": 2,
"symbol": "AMD",
"direction": "LONG",
"confidence": 54,
"expected_move": "+2.52%",
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00% · 昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1"
},
{
"rank": 3,
"symbol": "META",
"direction": "LONG",
"confidence": 66,
"expected_move": "+2.82%",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +6.96% · Volume 信号"
}
],
"top_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "ARM",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"confidence": 54,
"confidence_stars": "★★☆☆☆",
"expected_move": "+2.60%",
"expected_return_pct": 2.6,
"win_prob": 54.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -16.0
},
{
"factor": "Trend",
"key": "trend",
"points": 10.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
}
],
"total": 54.0,
"raw_total": 54.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 4.3,
"final_score": 0.7,
"trade_action": "Small",
"relative_strength": -2.37,
"entry": "Above 324.2 (现价)",
"entry_source": "current",
"entry_price": 324.18,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 323.21,
"high": 325.15,
"mid": 324.18,
"anchors": [],
"display": "Entry Zone 323–325",
"entry_source": "current",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "322.2 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 322.22,
"target": "332.6 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 332.62,
"targets": [
"332.6 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 325.4,
"orb_high": 340.52,
"orb_low": 322.22,
"prev_high": null,
"prev_low": null,
"prior_close": 327.87,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37%",
"昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 1"
],
"why_chain": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37% · 昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1",
"why_vs_runner_up": "ARM RS -2.4% vs AMD -2.0%；ER 2.6% vs 2.5%；relative weakness play",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -2.37,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -2.7,
"relative_weakness_score": 3.99,
"gap_pct": 0.8,
"beta_proxy": -0.91,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 8.14
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(2.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 332.62,
"expected_low": 315.74,
"expected_close": 332.62,
"current_price": 324.18,
"upside_pct": 2.6,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.6,
"why_factors": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37%",
"昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 1"
],
"why_today": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37% · 昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1",
"gap_pct": 0.8,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 4.31,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.23,
"reward_per_share": 8.44,
"risk_per_share": 1.96,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 4.31",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.23",
"display": "Reward/Risk 4.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.23",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Trade Policy · Trade Policy",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $322.22",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 324.18,
"source": "current",
"confidence": 67,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 325.4,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 322.22,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 322.22,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 332.62,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 332.62,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(332.62-324.18)/324.18=2.60%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.6,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 ARM：在 324.18 附近入场，目标 332.62，预期 +2.60%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 51,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 99.96,
"win_usd": 430.44,
"loss_usd": 99.96,
"expected_value_usd": 186.46,
"risk_per_share": 1.96,
"reward_per_share": 8.44,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 4.31,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.23,
"reward_per_share": 8.44,
"risk_per_share": 1.96,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 4.31",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.23",
"display": "Reward/Risk 4.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.23",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$430 / Loss -$100"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 51,
"max_loss_usd": 99.96,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $99.96"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 5.2,
"runner_up_value": 5.07,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 4.3,
"runner_up_value": 1.58,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.6% vs 2.5%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.68",
"RS -2.4% vs -2.0%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over AMD: ER 2.6% vs 2.5% · Score 0.7 vs 0.68 · RS -2.4% vs -2.0% · R:R 4.3 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.6% vs 1.8%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.61",
"RS -2.4% vs +7.0%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 0.57"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over META: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.6% vs 1.8% · Score 0.7 vs 0.61 · RS -2.4% vs +7.0% · R:R 4.3 vs 0.57"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.6% vs 0.8%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.39",
"RS -2.4% vs +2.4%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 1.58",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over TQQQ: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.6% vs 0.8% · Score 0.7 vs 0.39 · RS -2.4% vs +2.4% · R:R 4.3 vs 1.58 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.6% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.2",
"RS -2.4% vs +2.0%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 0.75",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over TSLA: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.6% vs 0.6% · Score 0.7 vs 0.2 · RS -2.4% vs +2.0% · R:R 4.3 vs 0.75 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 60",
"ER 2.6% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.7 vs 0.08",
"RS -2.4% vs +0.3%",
"R:R 4.3 vs 1.13",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over SMH: Win% 54 vs 60 · ER 2.6% vs 0.2% · Score 0.7 vs 0.08 · RS -2.4% vs +0.3% · R:R 4.3 vs 1.13 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"rank_summary": "ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 54.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 186.46,
"win_scenario_usd": 430.44,
"loss_scenario_usd": 99.96,
"win_prob_pct": 54.0,
"display": "EV $+186 (win +$430 @ 54.0% · loss -$100)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 324.18,
"ideal_entry": 324.18,
"distance_pct": 0.0,
"new_plan": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 323.21,
"zone_high": 325.15,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
{
"rank": 2,
"symbol": "AMD",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"confidence": 54,
"confidence_stars": "★★☆☆☆",
"expected_move": "+2.52%",
"expected_return_pct": 2.52,
"win_prob": 54.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -16.0
},
{
"factor": "Trend",
"key": "trend",
"points": 10.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
}
],
"total": 54.0,
"raw_total": 54.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 2.53,
"final_score": 0.68,
"trade_action": "Small",
"relative_strength": -2.0,
"entry": "Above 542.5 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 542.47,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 540.84,
"high": 544.1,
"mid": 542.47,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 542.47
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 541–544",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "537.1 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 537.06,
"target": "556.2 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 556.16,
"targets": [
"556.2 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 542.47,
"orb_high": 550.98,
"orb_low": 537.06,
"prev_high": null,
"prev_low": null,
"prior_close": 546.72,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00%",
"昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 1"
],
"why_chain": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00% · 昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -2.0,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -2.33,
"relative_weakness_score": 3.4,
"gap_pct": -0.6,
"beta_proxy": -0.61,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 7.89
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(2.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 556.16,
"expected_low": 528.96,
"expected_close": 556.16,
"current_price": 542.56,
"upside_pct": 2.51,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.51,
"why_factors": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00%",
"昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 1"
],
"why_today": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00% · 昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1",
"gap_pct": -0.6,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 2.53,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.4,
"reward_per_share": 13.69,
"risk_per_share": 5.41,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 2.53",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.40",
"display": "Reward/Risk 2.53 · Risk:Reward 1:0.40",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Trade Policy · Trade Policy",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $537.06",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 542.47,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 542.47,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Above Current",
"price": 542.56,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 537.06,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 537.06,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 556.16,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 556.16,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(556.16-542.47)/542.47=2.52%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.51,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 AMD：在 542.47 附近入场，目标 556.16，预期 +2.52%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 97.6,
"shares": 18,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 97.38,
"win_usd": 246.42,
"loss_usd": 97.38,
"expected_value_usd": 88.27,
"risk_per_share": 5.41,
"reward_per_share": 13.69,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 2.53,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.4,
"reward_per_share": 13.69,
"risk_per_share": 5.41,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 2.53",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.40",
"display": "Reward/Risk 2.53 · Risk:Reward 1:0.40",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$246 / Loss -$97"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 97.6,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 18,
"max_loss_usd": 97.38,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 97.6% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $97.38"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 2.53,
"runner_up_value": 1.58,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.5% vs 2.6%",
"Score 0.68 vs 0.7",
"RS -2.0% vs -2.4%",
"R:R 2.53 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over ARM: ER 2.5% vs 2.6% · Score 0.68 vs 0.7 · RS -2.0% vs -2.4% · R:R 2.53 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.5% vs 1.8%",
"Score 0.68 vs 0.61",
"RS -2.0% vs +7.0%",
"R:R 2.53 vs 0.57"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over META: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.5% vs 1.8% · Score 0.68 vs 0.61 · RS -2.0% vs +7.0% · R:R 2.53 vs 0.57"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.5% vs 0.8%",
"Score 0.68 vs 0.39",
"RS -2.0% vs +2.4%",
"R:R 2.53 vs 1.58",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over TQQQ: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.5% vs 0.8% · Score 0.68 vs 0.39 · RS -2.0% vs +2.4% · R:R 2.53 vs 1.58 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 66",
"ER 2.5% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.68 vs 0.2",
"RS -2.0% vs +2.0%",
"R:R 2.53 vs 0.75",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over TSLA: Win% 54 vs 66 · ER 2.5% vs 0.6% · Score 0.68 vs 0.2 · RS -2.0% vs +2.0% · R:R 2.53 vs 0.75 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 60",
"ER 2.5% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.68 vs 0.08",
"RS -2.0% vs +0.3%",
"R:R 2.53 vs 1.13",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over SMH: Win% 54 vs 60 · ER 2.5% vs 0.2% · Score 0.68 vs 0.08 · RS -2.0% vs +0.3% · R:R 2.53 vs 1.13 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 54.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 88.27,
"win_scenario_usd": 246.42,
"loss_scenario_usd": 97.38,
"win_prob_pct": 54.0,
"display": "EV $+88 (win +$246 @ 54.0% · loss -$97)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 542.56,
"ideal_entry": 542.47,
"distance_pct": 0.02,
"new_plan": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 540.84,
"zone_high": 544.1,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
{
"rank": 3,
"symbol": "META",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"confidence": 66,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+2.82%",
"expected_return_pct": 2.82,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 1.23,
"final_score": 0.61,
"trade_action": "Small",
"relative_strength": 6.96,
"entry": "Above 646.3 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 646.34,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 644.4,
"high": 648.28,
"mid": 646.34,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 646.34
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 644–648",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "631.5 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 631.48,
"target": "664.6 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 664.57,
"targets": [
"664.6 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 646.34,
"orb_high": 643.0,
"orb_low": 631.48,
"prev_high": 603.12,
"prev_low": 603.12,
"prior_close": 603.12,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +6.96%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +6.96% · Volume 信号",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 6.96,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 6.63,
"relative_weakness_score": -10.94,
"gap_pct": 5.52,
"beta_proxy": 6.61,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(1.8%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 664.57,
"expected_low": 631.48,
"expected_close": 664.57,
"current_price": 652.6,
"upside_pct": 1.83,
"downside_risk_pct": 3.24,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +6.96%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +6.96% · Volume 信号",
"gap_pct": 5.52,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.23,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.81,
"reward_per_share": 18.23,
"risk_per_share": 14.86,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.23",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.81",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.23 · Risk:Reward 1:0.81",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Trade Policy · Trade Policy",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $631.48",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 646.34,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 646.34,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 643.0,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 631.48,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 631.48,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 664.57,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 664.57,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(664.57-646.34)/646.34=2.82%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 1.83,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 META：在 646.34 附近入场，目标 664.57，预期 +2.82%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 38.8,
"shares": 6,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 89.16,
"win_usd": 109.38,
"loss_usd": 89.16,
"expected_value_usd": 41.88,
"risk_per_share": 14.86,
"reward_per_share": 18.23,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.23,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.81,
"reward_per_share": 18.23,
"risk_per_share": 14.86,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.23",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.81",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.23 · Risk:Reward 1:0.81",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$109 / Loss -$89"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 38.8,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 6,
"max_loss_usd": 89.16,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 38.8% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $89.16"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": 6.96,
"runner_up_value": 2.43,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "win_prob",
"label": "Highest Probability",
"primary_value": 66.0,
"runner_up_value": 66.0,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 54",
"ER 2.8% vs 2.6%",
"Score 0.61 vs 0.7",
"RS +7.0% vs -2.4%",
"R:R 1.23 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why META over ARM: Win% 66 vs 54 · ER 2.8% vs 2.6% · Score 0.61 vs 0.7 · RS +7.0% vs -2.4% · R:R 1.23 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 54",
"ER 2.8% vs 2.5%",
"Score 0.61 vs 0.68",
"RS +7.0% vs -2.0%",
"R:R 1.23 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why META over AMD: Win% 66 vs 54 · ER 2.8% vs 2.5% · Score 0.61 vs 0.68 · RS +7.0% vs -2.0% · R:R 1.23 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.8% vs 0.8%",
"Score 0.61 vs 0.39",
"RS +7.0% vs +2.4%",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why META over TQQQ: ER 2.8% vs 0.8% · Score 0.61 vs 0.39 · RS +7.0% vs +2.4% · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.8% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.61 vs 0.2",
"RS +7.0% vs +2.0%",
"R:R 1.23 vs 0.75",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why META over TSLA: ER 2.8% vs 0.6% · Score 0.61 vs 0.2 · RS +7.0% vs +2.0% · R:R 1.23 vs 0.75 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 60",
"ER 2.8% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.61 vs 0.08",
"RS +7.0% vs +0.3%",
"R:R 1.23 vs 1.13",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why META over SMH: Win% 66 vs 60 · ER 2.8% vs 0.2% · Score 0.61 vs 0.08 · RS +7.0% vs +0.3% · R:R 1.23 vs 1.13 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 66.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 41.88,
"win_scenario_usd": 109.38,
"loss_scenario_usd": 89.16,
"win_prob_pct": 66.0,
"display": "EV $+42 (win +$109 @ 66.0% · loss -$89)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 652.6,
"ideal_entry": 646.34,
"distance_pct": 0.97,
"new_plan": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 644.4,
"zone_high": 648.28,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
}
],
"watchlist_items": [
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 4,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +2.43% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"rank": 5,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.99% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 6,
"win_prob": 60.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.23,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.33% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "MU",
"rank": 7,
"win_prob": 49.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.28,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.49% · 昨日强势 +3.2% 今日 gap 可控 · News 2 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"rank": 8,
"win_prob": 59.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.09,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
}
],
"advisory": true
},
"edges": {
"macro_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "今日有重大催化剂（含地缘/突发）：Trade Policy",
"catalyst": "Trade Policy"
},
"index_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "QQQ 盘前/开盘 +1.24%"
},
"sector_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "SMH 领先 QQQ +0.33%",
"sector": "Semiconductor"
},
"stock_edge": {
"edge": "NO",
"why": "无单票 RS+新闻+量能共振"
},
"advisory": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议"
},
"trade_candidates": [
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"win_prob": 54.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -16.0
},
{
"factor": "Trend",
"key": "trend",
"points": 10.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
}
],
"total": 54.0,
"raw_total": 54.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 2.6,
"expected_high": 332.62,
"expected_low": 315.74,
"expected_close": 332.62,
"current_price": 324.18,
"upside_pct": 2.6,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.6,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.7,
"trade_action": "Small",
"trade": "Small",
"gap_pct": 0.8,
"relative_strength": -2.37,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -2.7,
"relative_weakness_score": 3.99,
"prior_day_change_pct": 8.14,
"why_factors": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37%",
"昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 1"
],
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.37% · 昨日强势 +8.1% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1",
"score": 7,
"news_count": 1,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -2.37,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -2.7,
"relative_weakness_score": 3.99,
"gap_pct": 0.8,
"beta_proxy": -0.91,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 8.14
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(2.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "ARM RS -2.4% vs AMD -2.0%；ER 2.6% vs 2.5%；relative weakness play",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 1,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"win_prob": 54.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -16.0
},
{
"factor": "Trend",
"key": "trend",
"points": 10.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
}
],
"total": 54.0,
"raw_total": 54.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 2.51,
"expected_high": 556.16,
"expected_low": 528.96,
"expected_close": 556.16,
"current_price": 542.56,
"upside_pct": 2.51,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.51,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.68,
"trade_action": "Small",
"trade": "Small",
"gap_pct": -0.6,
"relative_strength": -2.0,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -2.33,
"relative_weakness_score": 3.4,
"prior_day_change_pct": 7.89,
"why_factors": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00%",
"昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 1"
],
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.00% · 昨日强势 +7.9% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1",
"score": 7,
"news_count": 1,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -2.0,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -2.33,
"relative_weakness_score": 3.4,
"gap_pct": -0.6,
"beta_proxy": -0.61,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 7.89
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(2.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 2,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 1.83,
"expected_high": 664.57,
"expected_low": 631.48,
"expected_close": 664.57,
"current_price": 652.6,
"upside_pct": 1.83,
"downside_risk_pct": 3.24,
"risk_reward": 0.57,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.57,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.75,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.57",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.75",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.57 · Risk:Reward 1:1.75",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.61,
"trade_action": "Small",
"trade": "Small",
"gap_pct": 5.52,
"relative_strength": 6.96,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 6.63,
"relative_weakness_score": -10.94,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +6.96%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +6.96% · Volume 信号",
"score": 6,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 6.96,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 6.63,
"relative_weakness_score": -10.94,
"gap_pct": 5.52,
"beta_proxy": 6.61,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(1.8%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 3,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"expected_high": 76.34,
"expected_low": 74.79,
"expected_close": 75.95,
"current_price": 75.39,
"upside_pct": 1.26,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 1.58,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.58,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.63,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.58",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.63",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.58 · Risk:Reward 1:0.63",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.39,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 3.27,
"relative_strength": 2.43,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 2.1,
"relative_weakness_score": -3.69,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +2.43%",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +2.43% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 4,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 2.43,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 2.1,
"relative_weakness_score": -3.69,
"gap_pct": 3.27,
"beta_proxy": 2.96,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(0.7%) × rr_weight(0.79) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.79,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 4,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"expected_high": 409.24,
"expected_low": 403.55,
"expected_close": 409.24,
"current_price": 406.81,
"upside_pct": 0.6,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 0.75,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.75,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.33,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.75",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.33",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.75 · Risk:Reward 1:1.33",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.2,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 2.52,
"relative_strength": 1.99,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.66,
"relative_weakness_score": -2.99,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.99%",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.99% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 2,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.99,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.66,
"relative_weakness_score": -2.99,
"gap_pct": 2.52,
"beta_proxy": 2.6,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(0.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 5,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"win_prob": 60.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 6.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 60.0,
"raw_total": 60.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.23,
"expected_high": 607.73,
"expected_low": 597.47,
"expected_close": 603.69,
"current_price": 602.29,
"upside_pct": 0.9,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 1.13,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.13,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.88,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.13",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.88",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.13 · Risk:Reward 1:0.88",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.08,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 2.09,
"relative_strength": 0.33,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.0,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.33,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +0.33%",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.33% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 1,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.33,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.0,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.33,
"gap_pct": 2.09,
"beta_proxy": 1.27,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 0.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(60%) × ER(0.2%) × rr_weight(0.56) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.56,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 6,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "MU",
"win_prob": 49.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -16.0
},
{
"factor": "Trend",
"key": "trend",
"points": 10.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
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"data_gaps": []
}