30 秒看懂：这不是炒股 App，也不会帮你下单。它每天自动做一套「晨会 → 盘中检查 → 收盘复盘」的研究报告，供你阅读和决策参考。
你唯一必须做的事：每个交易日收盘后花约 5 分钟去核对——告诉系统今天猜对了还是猜错了。核对越多，Agent 才会越用越准。
首页「Morning 一页纸 · 决策卡」每天 5 行 + Hypothesis。下面是一个假例子，帮你理解每行含义：
NYSE 休市日（周末、法定假日）没有当日报告，这是正常的——系统不会生成 Driver、决策卡或 Step 更新。
此时请点首页的「上一交易日」链接，查看最近一份完整报告。休市期间的新闻摘要（如有）仅供参考，不构成交易决策。
Day 22
H-2026-08-03-001Surprise：Bond mattered less than expected despite 10Y=4.68%; AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day
Lesson：AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量
{
"date": "2026-08-03",
"features": {
"dgs10": 4.68,
"dgs2": null,
"vix": 15.96,
"vix_chg": -0.19,
"qqq_chg": 2.42,
"smh_chg": 1.31,
"nvda_chg": 5.92,
"spy_chg": 0.0,
"oil_chg": 0.0,
"dxy_chg": 0.02,
"breadth_proxy": 0.8571428571428571,
"qqq_gap": 1.29,
"news_headline_count": 34,
"news_bearish_ratio": 0.25,
"news_ai_mentions": 69,
"news_macro_mentions": 6,
"news_oil_mentions": 1,
"news_risk_mentions": 2
},
"regime": {
"label": "AI Expansion",
"confidence": 0.82
},
"hypothesis": {
"id": "H-2026-08-03-001",
"statement": "弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售？（Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险）",
"evidence": [
"VIX=16.0 (low fear)",
"Breadth 86% (broad participation)"
],
"counter_evidence": [],
"confidence": 0.86,
"status": "待验证"
},
"morning": {
"bias": "Bullish Bias",
"total": 2,
"driver_type": "Fed",
"daily_driver": "Fed Headlines",
"best_opportunity": {
"direction": "LONG",
"symbol": "AMZN",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Intraday",
"confidence": 66,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"entry": "Above 275.6 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 276.0,
"stop": "273.6 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 273.55,
"target": "289.3 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 289.27,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"targets": [
"289.3 (预期收盘)"
],
"duration": "Intraday",
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +16.66%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +16.66% · Volume 信号",
"why_vs_runner_up": "AMZN RS +16.7% vs GOOGL +7.8%；ER 4.7% vs 2.2%；higher beta (24.5 vs 11.9)；relative strength",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 16.66,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 19.05,
"relative_weakness_score": -28.09,
"gap_pct": 16.52,
"beta_proxy": 24.46,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.19,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(4.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 4.81,
"expected_move": "+4.81%",
"return_calculation": "(289.27-276.0)/276.0=4.81%",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 AMZN：在 276.0 附近入场，目标 289.27，预期 +4.81%",
"risk_reward": 5.42,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 5.42,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.18,
"reward_per_share": 13.27,
"risk_per_share": 2.45,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 5.42",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.18",
"display": "Reward/Risk 5.42 · Risk:Reward 1:0.18",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"entry_zone": {
"low": 275.65,
"high": 276.35,
"mid": 276.0,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 275.65
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 276.35
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 275.65–276.35",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"rank_summary": "AMZN ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + best reward/risk",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 66.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"similar_days": null,
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 317.01,
"win_scenario_usd": 530.8,
"loss_scenario_usd": 98.0,
"win_prob_pct": 66.0,
"display": "EV $+317 (win +$531 @ 66.0% · loss -$98)"
},
"final_score": 1.54,
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 275.65,
"orb_high": 276.35,
"orb_low": 273.55,
"prev_high": 235.5,
"prev_low": 235.5,
"prior_close": 235.5,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 276.0,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 98,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 275.65,
"weight_pct": 54.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 276.35,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Above Current",
"price": 276.41,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 273.55,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 273.55,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 289.27,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 289.27,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 40,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 98.0,
"win_usd": 530.8,
"loss_usd": 98.0,
"expected_value_usd": 317.01,
"risk_per_share": 2.45,
"reward_per_share": 13.27,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 5.42,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.18,
"reward_per_share": 13.27,
"risk_per_share": 2.45,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 5.42",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.18",
"display": "Reward/Risk 5.42 · Risk:Reward 1:0.18",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$531 / Loss -$98"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 40,
"max_loss_usd": 98.0,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $98.0"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": 16.66,
"runner_up_value": 7.75,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 9.3,
"runner_up_value": 6.78,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 3,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 5.42,
"runner_up_value": 3.18,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "GOOGL",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"ER 4.8% vs 2.2%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.72",
"RS +16.7% vs +7.8%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over GOOGL: ER 4.8% vs 2.2% · Score 1.54 vs 0.72 · RS +16.7% vs +7.8% · R:R 5.42 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 4.8% vs 1.3%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.45",
"RS +16.7% vs +4.3%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 0.75",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over META: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 4.8% vs 1.3% · Score 1.54 vs 0.45 · RS +16.7% vs +4.3% · R:R 5.42 vs 0.75 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 77",
"ER 4.8% vs 0.9%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.43",
"RS +16.7% vs +1.1%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 1.23",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over NVDA: Win% 66 vs 77 · ER 4.8% vs 0.9% · Score 1.54 vs 0.43 · RS +16.7% vs +1.1% · R:R 5.42 vs 1.23 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 4.8% vs 1.2%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.42",
"RS +16.7% vs +4.4%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 0.59",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over MSFT: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 4.8% vs 1.2% · Score 1.54 vs 0.42 · RS +16.7% vs +4.4% · R:R 5.42 vs 0.59 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"ER 4.8% vs 0.6%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.21",
"RS +16.7% vs +1.5%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 0.79",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over TQQQ: ER 4.8% vs 0.6% · Score 1.54 vs 0.21 · RS +16.7% vs +1.5% · R:R 5.42 vs 0.79 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"avoid": [],
"one_liner": "做多 AMZN：在 276.0 附近入场，目标 289.27，预期 +4.81%",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"advisory": true
},
"best_trades": {
"primary": {
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "AMZN",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Intraday",
"confidence": 66,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+4.81%",
"expected_return_pct": 4.81,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 5.42,
"final_score": 1.54,
"trade_action": "Small",
"relative_strength": 16.66,
"entry": "Above 275.6 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 276.0,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 275.65,
"high": 276.35,
"mid": 276.0,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 275.65
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 276.35
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 275.65–276.35",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "273.6 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 273.55,
"target": "289.3 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 289.27,
"targets": [
"289.3 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 275.65,
"orb_high": 276.35,
"orb_low": 273.55,
"prev_high": 235.5,
"prev_low": 235.5,
"prior_close": 235.5,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +16.66%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +16.66% · Volume 信号",
"why_vs_runner_up": "AMZN RS +16.7% vs GOOGL +7.8%；ER 4.7% vs 2.2%；higher beta (24.5 vs 11.9)；relative strength",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 16.66,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 19.05,
"relative_weakness_score": -28.09,
"gap_pct": 16.52,
"beta_proxy": 24.46,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.19,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(4.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 289.27,
"expected_low": 263.55,
"expected_close": 289.27,
"current_price": 276.41,
"upside_pct": 4.65,
"downside_risk_pct": 4.65,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +16.66%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +16.66% · Volume 信号",
"gap_pct": 16.52,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 5.42,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.18,
"reward_per_share": 13.27,
"risk_per_share": 2.45,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 5.42",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.18",
"display": "Reward/Risk 5.42 · Risk:Reward 1:0.18",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $273.55 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 276.0,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 98,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 275.65,
"weight_pct": 54.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 276.35,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Above Current",
"price": 276.41,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 273.55,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 273.55,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 289.27,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 289.27,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(289.27-276.0)/276.0=4.81%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 4.65,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 AMZN：在 276.0 附近入场，目标 289.27，预期 +4.81%",
"expected_r": 3.2372,
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 40,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 98.0,
"win_usd": 530.8,
"loss_usd": 98.0,
"expected_value_usd": 317.01,
"risk_per_share": 2.45,
"reward_per_share": 13.27,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 5.42,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.18,
"reward_per_share": 13.27,
"risk_per_share": 2.45,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 5.42",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.18",
"display": "Reward/Risk 5.42 · Risk:Reward 1:0.18",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$531 / Loss -$98"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 40,
"max_loss_usd": 98.0,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $98.0"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": 16.66,
"runner_up_value": 7.75,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 9.3,
"runner_up_value": 6.78,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 3,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 5.42,
"runner_up_value": 3.18,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "GOOGL",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"ER 4.8% vs 2.2%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.72",
"RS +16.7% vs +7.8%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over GOOGL: ER 4.8% vs 2.2% · Score 1.54 vs 0.72 · RS +16.7% vs +7.8% · R:R 5.42 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 4.8% vs 1.3%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.45",
"RS +16.7% vs +4.3%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 0.75",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over META: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 4.8% vs 1.3% · Score 1.54 vs 0.45 · RS +16.7% vs +4.3% · R:R 5.42 vs 0.75 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 77",
"ER 4.8% vs 0.9%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.43",
"RS +16.7% vs +1.1%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 1.23",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over NVDA: Win% 66 vs 77 · ER 4.8% vs 0.9% · Score 1.54 vs 0.43 · RS +16.7% vs +1.1% · R:R 5.42 vs 1.23 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 4.8% vs 1.2%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.42",
"RS +16.7% vs +4.4%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 0.59",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over MSFT: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 4.8% vs 1.2% · Score 1.54 vs 0.42 · RS +16.7% vs +4.4% · R:R 5.42 vs 0.59 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"ER 4.8% vs 0.6%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.21",
"RS +16.7% vs +1.5%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 0.79",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over TQQQ: ER 4.8% vs 0.6% · Score 1.54 vs 0.21 · RS +16.7% vs +1.5% · R:R 5.42 vs 0.79 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"rank_summary": "AMZN ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + best reward/risk",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 66.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 317.01,
"win_scenario_usd": 530.8,
"loss_scenario_usd": 98.0,
"win_prob_pct": 66.0,
"display": "EV $+317 (win +$531 @ 66.0% · loss -$98)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 276.41,
"ideal_entry": 276.0,
"distance_pct": 0.15,
"remaining_er_pct": 4.65,
"live_expected_return_pct": 4.65,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 275.65,
"zone_high": 276.35,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
"secondary": {
"rank": 2,
"symbol": "GOOGL",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Intraday",
"confidence": 66,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+2.30%",
"expected_return_pct": 2.3,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 1.98,
"final_score": 0.72,
"trade_action": "Small",
"relative_strength": 7.75,
"entry": "Above 361.4 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 361.51,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 361.38,
"high": 361.65,
"mid": 361.51,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 361.38
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 361.65
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 361.38–361.65",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "357.3 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 357.32,
"target": "369.8 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 369.84,
"targets": [
"369.8 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 361.38,
"orb_high": 361.65,
"orb_low": 357.32,
"prev_high": 333.66,
"prev_low": 333.66,
"prior_close": 333.66,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +7.75%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +7.75% · Volume 信号",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 7.75,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 10.14,
"relative_weakness_score": -13.83,
"gap_pct": 8.04,
"beta_proxy": 11.92,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.19,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(2.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 369.84,
"expected_low": 353.97,
"expected_close": 369.84,
"current_price": 361.9,
"upside_pct": 2.19,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.19,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +7.75%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +7.75% · Volume 信号",
"gap_pct": 8.04,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.99,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.5,
"reward_per_share": 8.33,
"risk_per_share": 4.19,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.99",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.50",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.99 · Risk:Reward 1:0.50",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $357.32 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 361.51,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 98,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 361.38,
"weight_pct": 54.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 361.65,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Above Current",
"price": 361.9,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 357.32,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 357.32,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 369.84,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 369.84,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(369.84-361.51)/361.51=2.30%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.19,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 GOOGL：在 361.51 附近入场，目标 369.84，预期 +2.30%",
"expected_r": 0.9668,
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 83.1,
"shares": 23,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 96.37,
"win_usd": 191.59,
"loss_usd": 96.37,
"expected_value_usd": 93.68,
"risk_per_share": 4.19,
"reward_per_share": 8.33,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.99,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.5,
"reward_per_share": 8.33,
"risk_per_share": 4.19,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.99",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.50",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.99 · Risk:Reward 1:0.50",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$192 / Loss -$96"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 83.1,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 23,
"max_loss_usd": 96.37,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 83.1% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $96.37"
},
"why_wins_today": [],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "AMZN",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.3% vs 4.7%",
"Score 0.72 vs 1.54",
"RS +7.8% vs +16.7%",
"R:R 1.98 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why GOOGL over AMZN: ER 2.3% vs 4.7% · Score 0.72 vs 1.54 · RS +7.8% vs +16.7% · R:R 1.98 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 2.3% vs 1.3%",
"Score 0.72 vs 0.45",
"RS +7.8% vs +4.3%",
"R:R 1.98 vs 0.75",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why GOOGL over META: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 2.3% vs 1.3% · Score 0.72 vs 0.45 · RS +7.8% vs +4.3% · R:R 1.98 vs 0.75 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 77",
"ER 2.3% vs 0.9%",
"Score 0.72 vs 0.43",
"RS +7.8% vs +1.1%",
"R:R 1.98 vs 1.23",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why GOOGL over NVDA: Win% 66 vs 77 · ER 2.3% vs 0.9% · Score 0.72 vs 0.43 · RS +7.8% vs +1.1% · R:R 1.98 vs 1.23 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 2.3% vs 1.2%",
"Score 0.72 vs 0.42",
"RS +7.8% vs +4.4%",
"R:R 1.98 vs 0.59",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why GOOGL over MSFT: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 2.3% vs 1.2% · Score 0.72 vs 0.42 · RS +7.8% vs +4.4% · R:R 1.98 vs 0.59 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.3% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.72 vs 0.21",
"RS +7.8% vs +1.5%",
"R:R 1.98 vs 0.79",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why GOOGL over TQQQ: ER 2.3% vs 0.6% · Score 0.72 vs 0.21 · RS +7.8% vs +1.5% · R:R 1.98 vs 0.79 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 66.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 93.68,
"win_scenario_usd": 191.59,
"loss_scenario_usd": 96.37,
"win_prob_pct": 66.0,
"display": "EV $+94 (win +$192 @ 66.0% · loss -$96)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 361.9,
"ideal_entry": 361.51,
"distance_pct": 0.11,
"remaining_er_pct": 2.19,
"live_expected_return_pct": 2.19,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 361.38,
"zone_high": 361.65,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
"watchlist": null,
"index_trade": "NO TRADE",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": null,
"stock_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "AMZN",
"direction": "LONG",
"confidence": 66,
"expected_move": "+4.81%",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +16.66% · Volume 信号"
},
{
"rank": 2,
"symbol": "GOOGL",
"direction": "LONG",
"confidence": 66,
"expected_move": "+2.30%",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +7.75% · Volume 信号"
}
],
"top_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "AMZN",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Intraday",
"confidence": 66,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+4.81%",
"expected_return_pct": 4.81,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 5.42,
"final_score": 1.54,
"trade_action": "Small",
"relative_strength": 16.66,
"entry": "Above 275.6 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 276.0,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 275.65,
"high": 276.35,
"mid": 276.0,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 275.65
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 276.35
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 275.65–276.35",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "273.6 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 273.55,
"target": "289.3 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 289.27,
"targets": [
"289.3 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 275.65,
"orb_high": 276.35,
"orb_low": 273.55,
"prev_high": 235.5,
"prev_low": 235.5,
"prior_close": 235.5,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +16.66%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +16.66% · Volume 信号",
"why_vs_runner_up": "AMZN RS +16.7% vs GOOGL +7.8%；ER 4.7% vs 2.2%；higher beta (24.5 vs 11.9)；relative strength",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 16.66,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 19.05,
"relative_weakness_score": -28.09,
"gap_pct": 16.52,
"beta_proxy": 24.46,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.19,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(4.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 289.27,
"expected_low": 263.55,
"expected_close": 289.27,
"current_price": 276.41,
"upside_pct": 4.65,
"downside_risk_pct": 4.65,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +16.66%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +16.66% · Volume 信号",
"gap_pct": 16.52,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 5.42,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.18,
"reward_per_share": 13.27,
"risk_per_share": 2.45,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 5.42",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.18",
"display": "Reward/Risk 5.42 · Risk:Reward 1:0.18",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $273.55 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 276.0,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 98,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 275.65,
"weight_pct": 54.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 276.35,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Above Current",
"price": 276.41,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 273.55,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 273.55,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 289.27,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 289.27,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(289.27-276.0)/276.0=4.81%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 4.65,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 AMZN：在 276.0 附近入场，目标 289.27，预期 +4.81%",
"expected_r": 3.2372,
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 40,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 98.0,
"win_usd": 530.8,
"loss_usd": 98.0,
"expected_value_usd": 317.01,
"risk_per_share": 2.45,
"reward_per_share": 13.27,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 5.42,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.18,
"reward_per_share": 13.27,
"risk_per_share": 2.45,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 5.42",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.18",
"display": "Reward/Risk 5.42 · Risk:Reward 1:0.18",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$531 / Loss -$98"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 40,
"max_loss_usd": 98.0,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $98.0"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": 16.66,
"runner_up_value": 7.75,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 9.3,
"runner_up_value": 6.78,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 3,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 5.42,
"runner_up_value": 3.18,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "GOOGL",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"ER 4.8% vs 2.2%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.72",
"RS +16.7% vs +7.8%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over GOOGL: ER 4.8% vs 2.2% · Score 1.54 vs 0.72 · RS +16.7% vs +7.8% · R:R 5.42 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 4.8% vs 1.3%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.45",
"RS +16.7% vs +4.3%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 0.75",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over META: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 4.8% vs 1.3% · Score 1.54 vs 0.45 · RS +16.7% vs +4.3% · R:R 5.42 vs 0.75 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 77",
"ER 4.8% vs 0.9%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.43",
"RS +16.7% vs +1.1%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 1.23",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over NVDA: Win% 66 vs 77 · ER 4.8% vs 0.9% · Score 1.54 vs 0.43 · RS +16.7% vs +1.1% · R:R 5.42 vs 1.23 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 4.8% vs 1.2%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.42",
"RS +16.7% vs +4.4%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 0.59",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over MSFT: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 4.8% vs 1.2% · Score 1.54 vs 0.42 · RS +16.7% vs +4.4% · R:R 5.42 vs 0.59 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"ER 4.8% vs 0.6%",
"Score 1.54 vs 0.21",
"RS +16.7% vs +1.5%",
"R:R 5.42 vs 0.79",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why AMZN over TQQQ: ER 4.8% vs 0.6% · Score 1.54 vs 0.21 · RS +16.7% vs +1.5% · R:R 5.42 vs 0.79 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"rank_summary": "AMZN ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + best reward/risk",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 66.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 317.01,
"win_scenario_usd": 530.8,
"loss_scenario_usd": 98.0,
"win_prob_pct": 66.0,
"display": "EV $+317 (win +$531 @ 66.0% · loss -$98)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 276.41,
"ideal_entry": 276.0,
"distance_pct": 0.15,
"remaining_er_pct": 4.65,
"live_expected_return_pct": 4.65,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 275.65,
"zone_high": 276.35,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
{
"rank": 2,
"symbol": "GOOGL",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Intraday",
"confidence": 66,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+2.30%",
"expected_return_pct": 2.3,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 1.98,
"final_score": 0.72,
"trade_action": "Small",
"relative_strength": 7.75,
"entry": "Above 361.4 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 361.51,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 361.38,
"high": 361.65,
"mid": 361.51,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 361.38
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 361.65
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 361.38–361.65",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "357.3 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 357.32,
"target": "369.8 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 369.84,
"targets": [
"369.8 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 361.38,
"orb_high": 361.65,
"orb_low": 357.32,
"prev_high": 333.66,
"prev_low": 333.66,
"prior_close": 333.66,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +7.75%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +7.75% · Volume 信号",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 7.75,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 10.14,
"relative_weakness_score": -13.83,
"gap_pct": 8.04,
"beta_proxy": 11.92,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.19,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(2.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 369.84,
"expected_low": 353.97,
"expected_close": 369.84,
"current_price": 361.9,
"upside_pct": 2.19,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.19,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +7.75%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +7.75% · Volume 信号",
"gap_pct": 8.04,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.99,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.5,
"reward_per_share": 8.33,
"risk_per_share": 4.19,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.99",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.50",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.99 · Risk:Reward 1:0.50",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $357.32 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 361.51,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 98,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 361.38,
"weight_pct": 54.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 361.65,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Above Current",
"price": 361.9,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 357.32,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 357.32,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 369.84,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 369.84,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(369.84-361.51)/361.51=2.30%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.19,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 GOOGL：在 361.51 附近入场，目标 369.84，预期 +2.30%",
"expected_r": 0.9668,
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 83.1,
"shares": 23,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 96.37,
"win_usd": 191.59,
"loss_usd": 96.37,
"expected_value_usd": 93.68,
"risk_per_share": 4.19,
"reward_per_share": 8.33,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.99,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.5,
"reward_per_share": 8.33,
"risk_per_share": 4.19,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.99",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.50",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.99 · Risk:Reward 1:0.50",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$192 / Loss -$96"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 83.1,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 23,
"max_loss_usd": 96.37,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 83.1% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $96.37"
},
"why_wins_today": [],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "AMZN",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.3% vs 4.7%",
"Score 0.72 vs 1.54",
"RS +7.8% vs +16.7%",
"R:R 1.98 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why GOOGL over AMZN: ER 2.3% vs 4.7% · Score 0.72 vs 1.54 · RS +7.8% vs +16.7% · R:R 1.98 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 2.3% vs 1.3%",
"Score 0.72 vs 0.45",
"RS +7.8% vs +4.3%",
"R:R 1.98 vs 0.75",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why GOOGL over META: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 2.3% vs 1.3% · Score 0.72 vs 0.45 · RS +7.8% vs +4.3% · R:R 1.98 vs 0.75 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 77",
"ER 2.3% vs 0.9%",
"Score 0.72 vs 0.43",
"RS +7.8% vs +1.1%",
"R:R 1.98 vs 1.23",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why GOOGL over NVDA: Win% 66 vs 77 · ER 2.3% vs 0.9% · Score 0.72 vs 0.43 · RS +7.8% vs +1.1% · R:R 1.98 vs 1.23 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 2.3% vs 1.2%",
"Score 0.72 vs 0.42",
"RS +7.8% vs +4.4%",
"R:R 1.98 vs 0.59",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why GOOGL over MSFT: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 2.3% vs 1.2% · Score 0.72 vs 0.42 · RS +7.8% vs +4.4% · R:R 1.98 vs 0.59 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.3% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.72 vs 0.21",
"RS +7.8% vs +1.5%",
"R:R 1.98 vs 0.79",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why GOOGL over TQQQ: ER 2.3% vs 0.6% · Score 0.72 vs 0.21 · RS +7.8% vs +1.5% · R:R 1.98 vs 0.79 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 66.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 93.68,
"win_scenario_usd": 191.59,
"loss_scenario_usd": 96.37,
"win_prob_pct": 66.0,
"display": "EV $+94 (win +$192 @ 66.0% · loss -$96)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 361.9,
"ideal_entry": 361.51,
"distance_pct": 0.11,
"remaining_er_pct": 2.19,
"live_expected_return_pct": 2.19,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 361.38,
"zone_high": 361.65,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
}
],
"watchlist_items": [
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 3,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"expected_return_pct": 1.27,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +4.34% · News 1 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%（软门槛）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 4,
"win_prob": 77.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.91,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.07% · RS vs SMH +3.46% · News 7 · Volume 信号",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"rank": 5,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"expected_return_pct": 1.18,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +4.41% · News 5 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.13 < 0.15（EV门禁）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 6,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.63,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.52% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%（软门槛）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "DIA",
"rank": 7,
"win_prob": 76.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.24,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.84% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 3 · Volume 信号",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
}
],
"advisory": true,
"swing": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"duration": "Swing (days–weeks)",
"confidence": 76,
"entry": "Near 472.8 (swing zone)",
"entry_source": "swing_zone",
"entry_price": 472.77,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 464.55,
"high": 474.19,
"mid": 472.77,
"display": "$464.55–$474.19",
"source": "swing_pullback"
},
"stop": "448.1 (1.75xATR)",
"stop_source": "1.75xATR",
"stop_price": 448.1,
"target": "505.7 (T1 ~7.0%)",
"target_source": "2xATR_or_5pct",
"target_price": 505.66,
"targets": [
{
"price": 505.66,
"label": "T1",
"pct": 6.96
},
{
"price": 522.1,
"label": "T2",
"pct": 10.43
}
],
"expected_return_pct": 6.96,
"expected_move": "+6.96%",
"risk_reward": 1.33,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"final_score": 0.42,
"swing_quality": 7.797,
"atr": 16.4443,
"atr_source": "ATR14",
"level_formula": "stop=1.5–2×ATR or prior-week extreme; T1=max(5%, 2×ATR); T2=min(15%, max(10%, 3×ATR))",
"current_price": 474.19,
"why": [
"高流动性波段标的 MSFT",
"Prior day +0.0%",
"5D momentum +21.8%",
"RS vs QQQ +4.41%",
"News/5 catalyst hints",
"Swing score 7.8"
],
"why_chain": "高流动性波段标的 MSFT · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +21.8% · RS vs QQQ +4.41%",
"invalidation": "Close beyond stop $448.1 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)",
"trade_summary_cn": "波段做多 MSFT：理想入场 $464.55–$474.19，止损 $448.1，目标 $505.66（约 +7.0%），持仓天数–数周",
"one_liner": "波段做多 MSFT：理想入场 $464.55–$474.19，止损 $448.1，目标 $505.66（约 +7.0%），持仓天数–数周",
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"advisory": true,
"label": "长线 · Swing Trade",
"separate_from_intraday": true
}
},
"edges": {
"macro_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "今日有重大催化剂（含地缘/突发）：Fed Headlines、Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Macro Surprise",
"catalyst": "Fed Headlines、Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Macro Surprise"
},
"index_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "QQQ 盘前/开盘 +0.67%"
},
"sector_edge": {
"edge": "NO",
"why": "板块相对强度不足"
},
"stock_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "NVDA RS+新闻+量能",
"symbol": "NVDA"
},
"advisory": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议"
},
"trade_candidates": [
{
"symbol": "AMZN",
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 4.65,
"expected_high": 289.27,
"expected_low": 263.55,
"expected_close": 289.27,
"current_price": 276.41,
"upside_pct": 4.65,
"downside_risk_pct": 4.65,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.32,
"final_score": 1.54,
"trade_action": "Small",
"trade": "Small",
"gap_pct": 16.52,
"relative_strength": 16.66,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 19.05,
"relative_weakness_score": -28.09,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +16.66%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +16.66% · Volume 信号",
"score": 15,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 16.66,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 19.05,
"relative_weakness_score": -28.09,
"gap_pct": 16.52,
"beta_proxy": 24.46,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.19,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(4.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "AMZN RS +16.7% vs GOOGL +7.8%；ER 4.7% vs 2.2%；higher beta (24.5 vs 11.9)；relative strength",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 1,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "GOOGL",
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 2.19,
"expected_high": 369.84,
"expected_low": 353.97,
"expected_close": 369.84,
"current_price": 361.9,
"upside_pct": 2.19,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.19,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.32,
"final_score": 0.72,
"trade_action": "Small",
"trade": "Small",
"gap_pct": 8.04,
"relative_strength": 7.75,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 10.14,
"relative_weakness_score": -13.83,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +7.75%",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +7.75% · Volume 信号",
"score": 7,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 7.75,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 10.14,
"relative_weakness_score": -13.83,
"gap_pct": 8.04,
"beta_proxy": 11.92,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.19,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(2.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 2,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"win_prob": 71.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 71.0,
"raw_total": 71.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 1.27,
"expected_high": 573.45,
"expected_low": 556.71,
"expected_close": 573.45,
"current_price": 566.25,
"upside_pct": 1.27,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.68,
"risk_reward": 0.75,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.75,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.33,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.75",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.33",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.75 · Risk:Reward 1:1.33",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.2425,
"final_score": 0.45,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 5.04,
"relative_strength": 4.34,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 6.73,
"relative_weakness_score": -8.38,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +4.34%",
"News 1",
"Volume 信号",
"几何上行 <1.5%（软门槛）"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +4.34% · News 1 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%（软门槛）",
"score": 4,
"news_count": 1,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 4.34,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 6.73,
"relative_weakness_score": -8.38,
"gap_pct": 5.04,
"beta_proxy": 7.11,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -0.19,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(71%) × ER(1.3%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 3,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"win_prob": 77.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 77.0,
"raw_total": 77.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.91,
"expected_high": 200.75,
"expected_low": 196.7,
"expected_close": 200.32,
"current_price": 198.51,
"upside_pct": 1.13,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.91,
"risk_reward": 1.23,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.23,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.81,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.23",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.81",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.23 · Risk:Reward 1:0.81",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.7171,
"final_score": 0.43,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 3.56,
"relative_strength": 1.07,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.46,
"relative_weakness_score": -3.15,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.07%",
"RS vs SMH +3.46%",
"News 7",
"Volume 信号",
"几何上行 <1.5%（软门槛）"
],
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{
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"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -7.23% · News 6 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.39 < 0.15（EV门禁）",
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},
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},
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"trade_valid": true,
"action": "Hold"
},
"s7": {
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"attribution": {
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"bond": 0.081,
"oil": 0.0,
"macro": 0.004,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {}
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}
},
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},
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"agent_driver": "Fed Headlines",
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"hypothesis_correct": "部分对",
"scenario_primary": "A",
"scenario_actual": "A",
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"trade_recommendation": "AMZN",
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},
"surprise": "Bond mattered less than expected despite 10Y=4.68%; AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day",
"lesson": "AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量",
"playbook_refs": [
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],
"bayesian_drivers": {
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"Risk": 0.0
},
"data_gaps": []
}