Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 22

9/9 Steps

流程 Case 核对 Learning 起始日 2026-07-02（Day 1）

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET（早盘决策）完整 Morning →

Today's Opportunities

先给机会，再给分析 — 无需翻页

★★★☆☆ AMZN LONG AMZN ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + best reward/risk 66.0% Trade
★★★☆☆ GOOGL LONG 66.0% Trade
★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 77.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ MSFT Avoid 71.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Morning: AMZN LONG · TRIGGERED

AMZN LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 275.65–276.35 · Live ER +4.65% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会，再给分析 — 无需翻页

★☆☆☆☆ AMZN Avoid 54.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ MSFT Avoid 71.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 77.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ GOOGL Avoid 54.0% Avoid
★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid

#1：AMZN ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + best reward/risk

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

Primary Fed — Fed Headlines
rate hike — The Fed Held Interest Rates Steady for a 2nd Straight Meeting Under Kevin Warsh,
Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk
The Fed Held Interest Rates Steady for a 2nd Straight Meeting Under Kevin Warsh,
Tertiary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)
Trump Revives Iran Talks as Markets Watch Middle East Risks | The Pulse 8/3/2026

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Fed Headlines + Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate hike — The Fed Held Interest Rates Steady for a 2nd Straight Meeting Under Kevin Warsh,
breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 The Fed Held Interest Rates Steady for a 2nd Straight Meeting Under Kevin Warsh,
breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Trump Revives Iran Talks as Markets Watch Middle East Risks | The Pulse 8/3/2026
breaking Macro Surprise 88 ism about ai infrastructure spending. however, the article argues that selling these stocks may be premature. nvidia maintains 86% of the gpu data center market with strong revenue growth, while oracle has $638 billion in remaining performance obligations despite temporary margin pressures from heavy capex investments. both companies have solid long-term growth prospects despite near-term headwinds. ai infrastructure spending gpu market dominance capital expenditures data center investments remaining performance obligations margin compression tech stock volatility — Oracle and Nvidia Shares Have Plunged Over the Past 3 Months. Is It Time to Cut
breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate：Wait

Conditions to go LONG

IF QQQ > 683.5 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call（突破昨高）
IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce

Conditions to go SHORT

IF QQQ < 683.5 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put（破位昨低）
IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
IF QQQ between 683.5 (昨日低点) and 683.5 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range

Top 5 Trade Candidates

#	Ticker	Dir	Hz	Win%	ER%	R:R	Ideal Entry	Alt Entry	Status	Stop	Target	Why Today	Catalyst	Invalidation
1	AMZN AMZN ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + best reward/risk	LONG	Intraday	66.0%	4.81%	Reward/Risk 5.42	Entry Zone 275.65–276.35	—	EXPIRED Abandon today	$273.55	$289.27	RS vs QQQ +16.66% · Volume 信号	Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk	Close below stop $273.55 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2	GOOGL	LONG	Intraday	66.0%	2.3%	Reward/Risk 1.99	Entry Zone 361.38–361.65	—	EXPIRED Abandon today	$357.32	$369.84	RS vs QQQ +7.75% · Volume 信号	Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk	Close below stop $357.32 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

META · Pass · RS vs QQQ +4.34% · News 1 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%（软门槛）
NVDA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.07% · RS vs SMH +3.46% · News 7 · Volume 信号
MSFT · Pass · RS vs QQQ +4.41% · News 5 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.13 < 0.15（EV门禁）
TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.52% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%（软门槛）
DIA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.84% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 3 · Volume 信号

Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆

Best Trade AMZN · LONG · Stock · ER +4.81%

Direction LONG Intraday

Win Prob 66.0% (rules)

Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 275.65–276.35 Above 275.6 (VWAP) vwap

Entry Status EXPIRED Current $276.41 Dist +0.15% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +4.81%

Stop / Target $273.55 → $289.27

R:R Reward/Risk 5.42 · Risk:Reward 1:0.18

P&L +$530.8 / -$98.0

More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Fed — Fed Headlines

Confidence 66%

Index Trade NO TRADE

Why RS vs QQQ +16.66% · Volume 信号

#1：AMZN ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + best reward/risk

Why This Trade Wins Today

Highest Relative Strength 16.66 vs 7.75
Largest Expected Range 9.3 vs 6.78
Best Risk Reward 5.42 vs 3.18

Win Probability 拆解

Base +50.0
RS +12.0
Volume +4.0
Total 66.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000

成功 Win +$530.8

失败 Loss -$98.0

每股价差 Reward $13.27 / Risk $2.45 Reward/Risk 5.42 · Risk:Reward 1:0.18

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% ↓ Position 100.0% ↓ 1 unit(s) ↓ Max Loss $98.0

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $276.0 Confidence 98 vwap

✓ VWAP $275.65 54%
✓ ORB High $276.35 23%
✓ Above Current $276.41 23%

Stop $273.55 Confidence 77 orb_low

✓ ORB Low $273.55 100%

Target $289.27 Confidence 77 expected_close

✓ Expected Close $289.27 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

GOOGL (#2)
- ER 4.8% vs 2.2%
- Score 1.54 vs 0.72
- RS +16.7% vs +7.8%
- R:R 5.42 vs 1.0
META (#3)
- Win% 66 vs 71
- ER 4.8% vs 1.3%
- Score 1.54 vs 0.45
- RS +16.7% vs +4.3%
- R:R 5.42 vs 0.75
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
NVDA (#4)
- Win% 66 vs 77
- ER 4.8% vs 0.9%
- Score 1.54 vs 0.43
- RS +16.7% vs +1.1%
- R:R 5.42 vs 1.23
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
MSFT (#5)
- Win% 66 vs 71
- ER 4.8% vs 1.2%
- Score 1.54 vs 0.42
- RS +16.7% vs +4.4%
- R:R 5.42 vs 0.59
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
TQQQ (#6)
- ER 4.8% vs 0.6%
- Score 1.54 vs 0.21
- RS +16.7% vs +1.5%
- R:R 5.42 vs 0.79
- Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口：No Trade
TQQQ Pass Score 0.21 未达阈值
Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
Macro Event High uncertainty Fed Headlines、Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)