Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 25
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ AMD SHORT AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS 69.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ GOOGL Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 48.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 60.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Morning: AMD SHORT · ACTIVE

AMD SHORT · Ideal Entry Zone 471–474 · Live ER +2.74% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 69.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ GOOGL Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 48.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLE Avoid 60.0% Avoid

#1:AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  2. Secondary Positioning — XLF Rotation

    XLF leading vs XLK

  3. Tertiary Momentum — Index Momentum

    QQQ -1.4%

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Trade Policy

  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 723.9 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 723.9 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 723.9 (昨日低点) and 723.9 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 AMD
AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS
SHORT Intraday 69.0% 1.56% Reward/Risk 0.98 Entry Zone 471–474 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$480.0 $465.09 RS弱于QQQ -6.41% · RS弱于SMH -6.97% · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 Trade Policy Close above stop $480.0

Watchlist

  • MU · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -2.72% · RS弱于SMH -3.28% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.06 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • ARM · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.33% · RS弱于SMH -1.89% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • GOOGL · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -2.95% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -2.64% · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation · 期望R -0.25 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • TSLA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.34% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
Bias Neutral ★★★☆☆
Best Trade AMD · SHORT · Stock · ER +1.56%
Direction SHORT Intraday
Win Prob 69.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 471–474 Below 472.5 (ORB低点) orb_low
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $478.20 Dist -1.21% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +1.56%
Stop / Target $480.0 → $465.09
R:R Reward/Risk 0.98 · Risk:Reward 1:1.02
P&L +$95.94 / -$97.89
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Trade Policy
Confidence 69%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS弱于QQQ -6.41% · RS弱于SMH -6.97% · News 1 (利空做空)

#1:AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength -6.41 vs 6.07

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +20.0
  • Catalyst -5.0
  • Volume +4.0
  • Total 69.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$95.94
失败 Loss -$97.89
每股价差 Reward $7.38 / Risk $7.53 Reward/Risk 0.98 · Risk:Reward 1:1.02

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 61.4% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $97.89

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $472.47 Confidence 77 orb_low
  • ORB Low $472.47 100%
Stop $480.0 Confidence 77 orb_high
  • ORB High $480.0 100%
Target $465.09 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $465.09 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • MU (#2)
    • Win% 69 vs 74
    • ER 1.6% vs 1.2%
    • Score 0.95 vs 0.43
    • RS -6.4% vs -2.7%
    • R:R 0.98 vs 0.27
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • ARM (#3)
    • Win% 69 vs 74
    • ER 1.6% vs 0.7%
    • Score 0.95 vs 0.3
    • RS -6.4% vs -1.3%
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • GOOGL (#4)
    • Win% 69 vs 66
    • ER 1.6% vs 0.9%
    • Score 0.95 vs 0.29
    • RS -6.4% vs -3.0%
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TQQQ (#5)
    • Win% 69 vs 48
    • ER 1.6% vs 0.8%
    • Score 0.95 vs 0.19
    • RS -6.4% vs -2.6%
    • R:R 0.98 vs 0.56
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TSLA (#6)
    • Win% 69 vs 60
    • ER 1.6% vs 0.2%
    • Score 0.95 vs 0.1
    • RS -6.4% vs -0.3%
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.19 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -1.38%
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Trade Policy
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -1

Today's Biggest Risk

Extended Gap on AMD

  • Extended Gap on AMD
  • Low Breadth
  • Trade Policy Whipsaw
  • Don't Buy First Green Candle
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Expected Value

EV $+36 (win +$96 @ 69.0% · loss -$98)

「做空 AMD:在 472.47 附近入场,目标 465.09,预期 +1.56%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $217.21–$221.87
Stop · Target $209.2 → $237.23 / T2 $245.23
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +15.4%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $209.2 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 NVDA:理想入场 $217.21–$221.87,止损 $209.2,目标 $237.23(约 +7.2%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-06-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Trade Policy 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Stock Edge

Why vs #2:AMD RS -6.4% vs MU -2.7%;ER 2.7% vs 1.2%;higher beta (5.6 vs 3.0);relative weakness play

final = win_prob(69%) × ER(2.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS弱于QQQ -6.41%
  • RS弱于SMH -6.97%
  • News 1 (利空做空)
  • Volume 信号

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (-0.96%)

Driver「Political — Trade Policy」→ SMH, NVDA, SPY

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
SMH -1.03% -0.07%
NVDA 3.88% +4.84%
SPY -0.45% +0.51%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →