Step 3 — S3 10:00 Market Update
盘中 Driver 是否切换,重新计算 Score 与置信度
| 字段 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 判断 | Driver变了吗:NO · 若变,新Driver:无 · 新Total:-1 |
| 置信度 | 68% |
| 一句话 | Driver未变:Political·Trade Policy延续,Total维持-1 |
- 触发条件检查
- macro_releases:空列表,无surprise_flag=true项 → 不触发强制重评
- breaking_news_signals:空列表,has_high=false → 不触发强制重评
- headlines_since_open:空,无新增催化剂
- 说明:本次未满足强制重新评估Driver的两个触发条件(无宏观surprise,无high severity breaking news),因此按规则可维持NO CHANGE判断;intraday_news_errors为API限流(429),非信号缺失导致的判断依据,已知悉但不影响Driver评估逻辑
- Driver Tree(盘中未更新)
- Primary [Political]: Trade Policy — tariff争端(Arabica Coffee/US-Colombia)仍是最强证据,score 73
- Secondary [Positioning]: XLF Rotation — score 55,无新证据推翻
- Tertiary [Momentum]: Index Momentum — QQQ -1.4%,与S2 Weak开盘一致
- Score 表:昨日→更新后
- | 项 | 昨日(Morning) | 更新后(10:00) |
- |---|---|---|
- | Bias | Neutral | Neutral |
- | Total | -1 | -1 |
- | Driver | Political·Trade Policy | Political·Trade Policy(未变)|
- | Confidence | 0.75 | 0.68(因盘中信号缺失,小幅下调)|
- 市场状态:S2开盘Weak(Gap Down),与Trade Policy下行压力叙事一致,未出现反转证据
- 风险提示:科技七巨头新闻源(AAPL/AMZN/META/GOOGL/TSLA/AMD/MU/AVGO)因429限流未能拉取,需在下一轮更新时补充确认是否有个股层面催化剂影响Positioning/Momentum子驱动
10:00 Session Update · Best Trade
- No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none)
- Live ER (Morning primary, current→target): 2.74%