Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 20
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★☆☆☆ META SHORT META ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + best catalyst alignment 58.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 45.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 45.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 63.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 40.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU SHORT 33.0% Trade

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 unchanged vs Morning: META · ADVISORY

Morning: META SHORT · TRIGGERED

META SHORT · Ideal Entry Zone 529–533 · Live ER +2.90% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★☆☆☆ META SHORT META ranked #1 because largest expected range + best catalyst alignment 58.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 48.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 63.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SPY Avoid 68.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 51.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 21.0% Avoid

#1:META ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + best catalyst alignment

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Fed — Fed Headlines

    hawkish — Stock Market Today, July 29: Stocks Slide on Hawkish Fed and Increased Middle Ea

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    Stock Market Today, July 29: Stocks Slide on Hawkish Fed and Increased Middle Ea

  3. Tertiary Macro — GDP

    Scheduled: National Accounts - GDP (Eurostat)

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Fed Headlines + Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

  • breaking Fed Headlines 88 hawkish — Stock Market Today, July 29: Stocks Slide on Hawkish Fed and Increased Middle Ea
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Stock Market Today, July 29: Stocks Slide on Hawkish Fed and Increased Middle Ea
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 US Launches Fresh Wave of Iran Strikes as Conflict Widens Across Middle East
  • scheduled GDP 78 Scheduled: National Accounts - GDP (Eurostat)
  • commodity Oil Selloff 74 XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — From World’s Highest Tariff to Duty-Free: Lesotho Lauds US Shift
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:No Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 675.5 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth
  • IF SMH reclaims strength + QQQ > 675.5 (昨日高点) THEN SHORT-cover / tactical LONG

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 675.5 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH
  • IF SMH continues lower + QQQ < 675.5 (昨日低点) THEN avoid dip-buy; SHORT semis

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 675.5 (昨日低点) and 675.5 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility
  • IF chip selloff continues without QQQ breakdown THEN WAIT

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 META
META ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + best catalyst alignment
SHORT Intraday 58.0% 3.68% Reward/Risk 0.38 Entry Zone 534.15–534.63 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$585.61 $514.73 RS弱于QQQ -10.21% · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风) Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $585.61 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 MU SHORT Intraday 33.0% 1.43% Reward/Risk 1.00 Entry Zone 763–768 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$776.12 $754.3 板块内相对强势 +4.19% · 半导体内领涨 +5.74% · 昨日弱势 -6.7% 延续下行 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风) Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $776.12 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • TQQQ · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.60% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风) · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation
  • SMH · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.55% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风) · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation
  • TSLA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.71% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风) · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • NVDA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.24% · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风)
  • QQQ · Pass · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风) · 上行空间 <1.0%
Bias Bear ★★☆☆☆
Best Trade META · SHORT · Stock · ER +3.68%
Direction SHORT Intraday
Win Prob 58.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 534.15–534.63 Below 534.6 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $529.00 Dist +1.01% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +3.68%
Stop / Target $585.61 → $514.73
R:R Reward/Risk 0.38 · Risk:Reward 1:2.63
P&L +$19.66 / -$51.22
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Fed — Fed Headlines
Confidence 58%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS弱于QQQ -10.21% · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号

#1:META ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + best catalyst alignment

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength -10.21 vs 4.83
  2. Largest Expected Range 13.4 vs 4.81
  3. Best Catalyst Alignment 1.0 vs 1.0

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +12.0
  • Catalyst -5.0
  • Volume +4.0
  • Macro -3.0
  • Total 58.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$19.66
失败 Loss -$51.22
每股价差 Reward $19.66 / Risk $51.22 Reward/Risk 0.38 · Risk:Reward 1:2.63

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 5.3% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $51.22

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $534.39 Confidence 89 vwap
  • ORB Low $534.15 30%
  • VWAP $534.63 70%
Stop $585.61 Confidence 77 orb_high
  • ORB High $585.61 100%
Target $514.73 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $514.73 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • TQQQ (#2)
    • Win% 58 vs 45
    • ER 3.7% vs 0.8%
    • Score 0.78 vs 0.52
    • RS -10.2% vs -1.6%
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • SMH (#3)
    • Win% 58 vs 45
    • ER 3.7% vs 0.7%
    • Score 0.78 vs 0.46
    • RS -10.2% vs -1.6%
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TSLA (#4)
    • Win% 58 vs 63
    • ER 3.7% vs 0.4%
    • Score 0.78 vs 0.34
    • RS -10.2% vs -0.7%
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • NVDA (#5)
    • Win% 58 vs 40
    • ER 3.7% vs 0.4%
    • Score 0.78 vs 0.27
    • RS -10.2% vs -1.2%
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • MU (#6)
    • Win% 58 vs 33
    • ER 3.7% vs 1.4%
    • Score 0.78 vs 0.24
    • RS -10.2% vs +4.2%

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.52 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.64%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Fed Headlines、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -3

Today's Biggest Risk

Extended Gap on META

  • Extended Gap on META
  • Low Breadth
  • Fed Headlines / Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Whipsaw
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Buy First Green Candle
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Expected Value

EV $-10 (win +$20 @ 58.0% · loss -$51)

「做空 META:在 534.39 附近入场,目标 514.73,预期 +3.68%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $529.00–$542.24
Stop · Target $565.55 → $483.98 / T2 $460.67
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -6.6%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $565.55 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 META:理想入场 $529.00–$542.24,止损 $565.55,目标 $483.98(约 +8.8%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-30-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Fed Headlines 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Relative Weakness

Why vs #2:META RS -10.2% vs TQQQ -1.6%;ER 2.7% vs 0.8%;Win% 58 vs 45;higher beta (16.9 vs 3.5);relative weakness play

final = win_prob(58%) × ER(2.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS弱于QQQ -10.21%
  • News 1 (利空做空)
  • Volume 信号
  • VIX 回落 (做空逆风)

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (6.14%)

Driver「Fed — Fed Headlines」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT
IEF
UUP

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →