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Step 7 — Attribution
16:10 ET · 涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
Agent 结论
真正 Driver:NFP · Attribution:AI 53% · Bond 11% · Hypothesis:错 · Scenario A→A 命中
NFP 主导;Scenario A→A 命中
Step 7 — S7 16:10 Evening Review
今日真正 Driver、Morning 对错、Decision Log
| 字段 |
内容 |
| 判断 |
真正 Driver:NFP · Attribution:AI 53% · Bond 11% · Hypothesis:错 · Scenario A→A 命中 |
| 置信度 |
N/A |
| 一句话 |
NFP 主导;Scenario A→A 命中 |
Step 7 — Evening Review (Attribution Engine)
7.1 Outcome Attribution
| Driver |
Contribution |
| AI / Semiconductor |
53% |
| Bond / Rates |
11% |
| Oil / Geo |
0% |
| Macro Data |
31% |
| Other |
5% |
7.2 True Driver
- Morning/Hypothesis: Fed Headlines
- Actual: NFP
- Hypothesis result: 错
7.2b Scenario (P15)
- Morning primary: A
- Actual played out: A
- Scenario hit: ✓
- Scores: {'A': 0.75, 'B': 0.0, 'C': 0.65}
7.3 Surprise
- No major surprises vs typical driver mix
7.4 Decision Log
| Field |
Value |
| Today's Driver |
NFP |
| Driver Splits |
NFP 37% |
| Hypothesis |
H-2026-07-30-001 · 错 |
| Scenario (P15) |
预测 A → 实际 A · 命中 |
| Attribution |
NFP 37% |
| Surprise |
No major surprises vs typical driver mix |
| Trade Decision |
Trade |
7.5 Prediction Error (P18 learning stub)
- Primary: META
- Predicted ER: 3.68%
- Actual: None%
- Error: None%