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Step 7 — Attribution

16:10 ET · 涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log

Day 63
9/9 Steps
Agent 结论 真正 Driver:Bond/Rates · Attribution:AI 28% · Bond 63% · Hypothesis:错 · Scenario A→C 未命中 Bond/Rates 主导;Scenario A→C 未命中

Step 7 — S7 16:10 Evening Review

今日真正 Driver、Morning 对错、Decision Log

字段 内容
判断 真正 Driver:Bond/Rates · Attribution:AI 28% · Bond 63% · Hypothesis:错 · Scenario A→C 未命中
置信度 N/A
一句话 Bond/Rates 主导;Scenario A→C 未命中

Step 7 — Evening Review (Attribution Engine)

7.1 Outcome Attribution

Driver Contribution
AI / Semiconductor 28%
Bond / Rates 63%
Oil / Geo 0%
Macro Data 4%
Other 5%

7.2 True Driver

7.2b Scenario (P15)

7.3 Surprise

7.4 Decision Log

Field Value
Today's Driver Bond/Rates
Driver Splits —
Hypothesis H-2026-09-30-001 · 错
Scenario (P15) 预测 A → 实际 C · 未命中
Attribution AI 28% · Bond 63% · Oil 0% · Macro 4% · Other 5%
Surprise No major surprises vs typical driver mix
Trade Decision No Trade

7.5 Prediction Error (P18 learning stub)