Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 63
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 59.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 60.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SPY Avoid 49.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    JPMorgan and Goldman See Mideast Oil Flows Near Pre-War Levels

  2. Secondary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 JPMorgan and Goldman See Mideast Oil Flows Near Pre-War Levels
  • commodity Oil Selloff 74 XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 736.5 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 736.5 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 736.5 (昨日低点) and 736.5 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk
LONG Intraday 59.0% 1.04% Reward/Risk 2.61 Entry Zone 292–294 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$291.52 $295.74 昨日强势 +3.2% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 Geopolitical Risk · Oil Selloff Close below stop $291.52 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 META LONG Intraday 71.0% 0.99% Reward/Risk 0.45 Entry Zone 729–734 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$715.62 $738.79 RS vs QQQ +2.17% · News 1 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Oil Selloff Close below stop $715.62 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 SMH LONG Intraday 71.0% 0.36% Reward/Risk 0.42 Entry Zone 604–607 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$600.64 $608.02 RS vs QQQ +0.77% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Oil Selloff Close below stop $600.64 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 MU LONG Intraday 60.0% 0.9% Reward/Risk 2.37 Entry Zone 1066–1072 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$1065.08 $1078.68 RS vs QQQ +0.21% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Oil Selloff Close below stop $1065.08 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 TQQQ LONG Intraday 59.0% 0.65% Reward/Risk 4.55 Entry Zone 76.91–77.13 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$76.91 $77.52 Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% Geopolitical Risk · Oil Selloff Close below stop $76.91 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • AVGO · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • SPY · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • NVDA · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -0.52% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 8 · Volume 信号
  • AMD · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -0.76% · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0%
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • Index Edge NO 指数方向不明或幅度不足
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.03 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Geopolitical Risk / Oil Selloff Whipsaw

  • Geopolitical Risk / Oil Selloff Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction TSLA · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $350.14–$356.69
Stop · Target $367.68 → $329.2 / T2 $316.07
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 TSLA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -6.9%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $367.68 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 TSLA:理想入场 $350.14–$356.69,止损 $367.68,目标 $329.2(约 +6.3%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-30-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (1.77%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 1.42% -0.35% ▼
UUP 0.52% -1.25% ▼
QQQ 1.77% +0.00% —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →