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Step 7 — Attribution
16:10 ET · 涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
Agent 结论
真正 Driver:AI Chip Selloff · Attribution:AI 86% · Bond 8% · Hypothesis:部分对 · Scenario A→B 未命中
AI Chip Selloff 主导;Scenario A→B 未命中
Step 7 — S7 16:10 Evening Review
今日真正 Driver、Morning 对错、Decision Log
| 字段 |
内容 |
| 判断 |
真正 Driver:AI Chip Selloff · Attribution:AI 86% · Bond 8% · Hypothesis:部分对 · Scenario A→B 未命中 |
| 置信度 |
N/A |
| 一句话 |
AI Chip Selloff 主导;Scenario A→B 未命中 |
Step 7 — Evening Review (Attribution Engine)
7.1 Outcome Attribution
| Driver |
Contribution |
| AI / Semiconductor |
86% |
| Bond / Rates |
8% |
| Oil / Geo |
0% |
| Macro Data |
1% |
| Other |
5% |
7.2 True Driver
- Morning/Hypothesis: Fed Headlines
- Actual: AI Chip Selloff
- Hypothesis result: 部分对
7.2b Scenario (P15)
- Morning primary: A
- Actual played out: B
- Scenario hit: ✗
- Scores: {'A': 0.1, 'B': 1.0, 'C': 0.0}
7.3 Surprise
- Bond mattered less than expected despite 10Y=4.67%; AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day
7.4 Decision Log
| Field |
Value |
| Today's Driver |
AI Chip Selloff |
| Driver Splits |
AI Chip Selloff 86% |
| Hypothesis |
H-2026-07-24-001 · 部分对 |
| Scenario (P15) |
预测 A → 实际 B · 未命中 |
| Attribution |
AI Chip Selloff 86% |
| Surprise |
Bond mattered less than expected despite 10Y=4.67%; AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day |
| Trade Decision |
Trade |
7.5 Prediction Error (P18 learning stub)
- Primary: TSLA
- Predicted ER: 3.71%
- Actual: None%
- Error: None%