Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 16
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ TSLA SHORT TSLA ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 66.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 48.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 39.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 58.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 unchanged vs Morning: TSLA · ADVISORY

Morning: TSLA SHORT · READY

TSLA SHORT · Ideal Entry Zone 318–320 · Live ER +3.75% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ TSLA SHORT TSLA ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + best reward/risk 66.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ AMD SHORT 75.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ ARM SHORT 79.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ MU SHORT 78.0% Trade
  • ★★☆☆☆ AVGO SHORT 53.0% Trade
  • ★★☆☆☆ TQQQ Wait 48.0% Wait

#1:TSLA ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Fed — Fed Headlines

    rate hike — The Probability of a July Fed Rate Hike Has Tripled Over the Last Week -- Here's

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Wheat Extends July Rally as War Risks Stoke Fears Over Supply

  3. Tertiary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    The Probability of a July Fed Rate Hike Has Tripled Over the Last Week -- Here's

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Fed Headlines + Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk

  • breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate hike — The Probability of a July Fed Rate Hike Has Tripled Over the Last Week -- Here's
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Wheat Extends July Rally as War Risks Stoke Fears Over Supply
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Geopolitics and Tech Woes Put Traders on Edge Before Weekend
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — The Trump Administration Launches "Project Prometheus" With These Nuclear Energy
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 The Probability of a July Fed Rate Hike Has Tripled Over the Last Week -- Here's
  • commodity Oil Selloff 74 XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:No Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 705.4 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 705.4 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 705.4 (昨日低点) and 705.4 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 TSLA
TSLA ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
SHORT Swing 66.0% 3.71% Reward/Risk 6.22 Entry Zone 322–324 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$325.29 $311.36 RS弱于QQQ -12.05% · Volume 信号 Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $325.29 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • TQQQ · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -3.39% · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation
  • META · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.82% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • NVDA · Pass · RS弱于SMH -0.68% · News 8 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind NVDA short vs escalation
  • MU · Pass · RS弱于SMH -0.62% · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • QQQ · Pass · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
Bias Bear ★★☆☆☆
Best Trade TSLA · SHORT · Stock · ER +3.71%
Direction SHORT Swing
Win Prob 66.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 322–324 Below 323.4 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $322.86 Dist +0.15% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +3.71%
Stop / Target $325.29 → $311.36
R:R Reward/Risk 6.22 · Risk:Reward 1:0.16
P&L +$612.0 / -$98.43
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Fed — Fed Headlines
Confidence 66%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS弱于QQQ -12.05% · Volume 信号

#1:TSLA ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength -12.05 vs 3.27
  2. Largest Expected Range 7.12 vs 2.4
  3. Highest Probability 66.0 vs 66.0
  4. Best Risk Reward 6.22 vs 1.6

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +12.0
  • Volume +4.0
  • Total 66.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$612.0
失败 Loss -$98.43
每股价差 Reward $12.0 / Risk $1.93 Reward/Risk 6.22 · Risk:Reward 1:0.16

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 100.0% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $98.43

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $323.36 Confidence 89 vwap
  • VWAP $323.36 70%
  • Below Current $322.86 30%
Stop $325.29 Confidence 89 orb_high
  • ORB High $325.29 70%
  • VWAP $323.36 30%
Target $311.36 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $311.36 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • TQQQ (#2)
    • Win% 66 vs 48
    • ER 3.7% vs 1.2%
    • Score 1.18 vs 0.29
    • RS -12.1% vs -3.4%
    • R:R 6.22 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • META (#3)
    • ER 3.7% vs 0.6%
    • Score 1.18 vs 0.26
    • RS -12.1% vs -1.8%
    • R:R 6.22 vs 1.31
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • NVDA (#4)
    • Win% 66 vs 39
    • ER 3.7% vs 0.3%
    • Score 1.18 vs 0.09
    • RS -12.1% vs +0.0%
    • R:R 6.22 vs 1.6
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • MU (#5)
    • Win% 66 vs 58
    • ER 3.7% vs 0.2%
    • Score 1.18 vs 0.06
    • RS -12.1% vs +0.1%
    • R:R 6.22 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • QQQ (#6)
    • Win% 66 vs 54
    • ER 3.7% vs 0.1%
    • Score 1.18 vs 0.06
    • RS -12.1% vs +0.0%
    • R:R 6.22 vs 1.6
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.29 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -1.62%
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Fed Headlines、Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -4

Today's Biggest Risk

Extended Gap on TSLA

  • Extended Gap on TSLA
  • Low Breadth
  • Fed Headlines / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw
  • Don't Buy First Green Candle
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Expected Value

EV $+370 (win +$612 @ 66.0% · loss -$98)

「做空 TSLA:在 323.36 附近入场,目标 311.36,预期 +3.71%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction TSLA · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $322.86–$332.69
Stop · Target $350.4 → $288.41 / T2 $275.26
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 TSLA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -18.2%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $350.4 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 TSLA:理想入场 $322.86–$332.69,止损 $350.4,目标 $288.41(约 +10.9%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-24-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Fed Headlines 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Relative Weakness

Why vs #2:TSLA RS -12.1% vs TQQQ -3.4%;ER 3.6% vs 1.2%;Win% 66 vs 48;higher beta (8.4 vs 3.1);relative weakness play

final = win_prob(66%) × ER(3.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS弱于QQQ -12.05%
  • Volume 信号

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (1.64%)

Driver「Fed — Fed Headlines」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT
IEF
UUP

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →