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Step 7 — Attribution
16:10 ET · 涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
Agent 结论
真正 Driver:AI/Semiconductor · Attribution:AI 68% · Bond 0% · Hypothesis:对 · Scenario B→B 命中
AI/Semiconductor 主导;Scenario B→B 命中
Step 7 — S7 16:10 Evening Review
今日真正 Driver、Morning 对错、Decision Log
| 字段 |
内容 |
| 判断 |
真正 Driver:AI/Semiconductor · Attribution:AI 68% · Bond 0% · Hypothesis:对 · Scenario B→B 命中 |
| 置信度 |
N/A |
| 一句话 |
AI/Semiconductor 主导;Scenario B→B 命中 |
Step 7 — Evening Review (Attribution Engine)
7.1 Outcome Attribution
| Driver |
Contribution |
| AI / Semiconductor |
68% |
| Bond / Rates |
0% |
| Oil / Geo |
0% |
| Macro Data |
28% |
| Other |
5% |
7.2 True Driver
- Morning/Hypothesis: AI Chip Selloff
- Actual: AI/Semiconductor
- Hypothesis result: 对
7.2b Scenario (P15)
- Morning primary: B
- Actual played out: B
- Scenario hit: ✓
- Scores: {'A': 0.425, 'B': 0.675, 'C': 0.0}
7.3 Surprise
- AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day
7.4 Decision Log
| Field |
Value |
| Today's Driver |
AI/Semiconductor |
| Driver Splits |
— |
| Hypothesis |
H-2026-07-08-001 · 对 |
| Scenario (P15) |
预测 B → 实际 B · 命中 |
| Attribution |
AI 68% · Bond 0% · Oil 0% · Macro 28% · Other 5% |
| Surprise |
AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day |
| Trade Decision |
Trade |
7.5 Prediction Error (P18 learning stub)
- Primary: NVDA
- Predicted ER: 0.61%
- Actual: 6.61%
- Error: -6.0%