Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 4
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★★☆ ARM SHORT ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability 85.0% Trade
  • ★★★★☆ MU SHORT 84.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ AMD SHORT 64.0% Trade
  • ★★☆☆☆ TQQQ Wait 62.0% Wait
  • ★★★☆☆ SMH SHORT 61.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 72.0% Avoid

#1:ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    Indian Stocks, Rupee Slide After Trump Reignites Iran Tensions

  2. Secondary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  3. Tertiary AI — AI Chip Rotation

    SMH -2.3% · semis lagging · AI headline flow

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Indian Stocks, Rupee Slide After Trump Reignites Iran Tensions
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Stocks Fall as US-Iran Truce Comes Under Strain: Markets Wrap
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:No Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 714.9 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF SMH reclaims strength + QQQ > 714.9 (昨日高点) THEN SHORT-cover / tactical LONG

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 714.9 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF SMH continues lower + QQQ < 714.9 (昨日低点) THEN avoid dip-buy; SHORT semis

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 714.9 (昨日低点) and 714.9 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF chip selloff continues without QQQ breakdown THEN WAIT

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability
SHORT 85.0% 2.29% Reward/Risk 0.53 Entry Zone 289–291 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$302.65 $283.36 RS弱于QQQ -0.58% · 昨日弱势 -7.6% 延续下行 · Gap 未过度延伸 · VIX 走高 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $302.65 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 MU SHORT 84.0% 1.22% Reward/Risk 0.21 Entry Zone 886–892 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$940.15 $878.13 RS弱于QQQ -2.12% · RS弱于SMH -1.73% · 昨日弱势 -4.0% 延续下行 · VIX 走高 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $940.15 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 AMD SHORT 64.0% 2.67% Reward/Risk 0.88 Entry Zone 506.00–506.64 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$521.7 $492.82 昨日弱势 -6.6% 延续下行 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 (利空做空) · VIX 走高 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $521.7 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 TQQQ SHORT 62.0% 2.22% Reward/Risk 0.51 Entry Zone 69.61–69.79 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$72.75 $68.15 RS弱于QQQ -3.80% · 昨日弱势 -3.2% 延续下行 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $72.75 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 SMH SHORT 61.0% 1.03% Reward/Risk 0.34 Entry Zone 569.00–569.74 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$586.47 $563.48 RS弱于QQQ -0.39% · 昨日弱势 -3.2% 延续下行 · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close above stop $586.47 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • TSLA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -2.92% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高
  • SPY · Pass · 板块内相对强势 +0.83% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高
  • AVGO · Pass · 板块内相对强势 +1.28% · 半导体内领涨 +1.67% · 昨日强势 +3.8% 做空逆风 · Gap 未过度延伸
  • META · Pass · 板块内相对强势 +2.17% · News 2 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高
Bias Bear ★★☆☆☆
Best Trade ARM · SHORT · ETF · ER +2.29%
Direction SHORT Intraday
Win Prob 85.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 289–291 Below 290.0 (ORB低点) orb_low
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $293.00 Dist -1.03% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +2.29%
Stop / Target $302.65 → $283.36
R:R Reward/Risk 0.53 · Risk:Reward 1:1.89
P&L +$46.55 / -$88.48
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)
Confidence 85%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS弱于QQQ -0.58% · 昨日弱势 -7.6% 延续下行 · Gap 未过度延伸

#1:ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Largest Expected Range 6.58 vs 5.85
  2. Highest Probability 85.0 vs 84.0

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +16.0
  • Trend +8.0
  • Gap +5.0
  • Macro +6.0
  • Total 85.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$46.55
失败 Loss -$88.48
每股价差 Reward $6.65 / Risk $12.64 Reward/Risk 0.53 · Risk:Reward 1:1.89

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 20.3% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $88.48

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $290.01 Confidence 89 orb_low
  • ORB Low $290.01 70%
  • VWAP $290.98 30%
Stop $302.65 Confidence 77 orb_high
  • ORB High $302.65 100%
Target $283.36 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $283.36 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • MU (#2)
    • Win% 85 vs 84
    • ER 2.3% vs 2.5%
    • Score 1.4 vs 1.06
    • RS -0.6% vs -2.1%
  • AMD (#3)
    • Win% 85 vs 64
    • ER 2.3% vs 2.6%
    • Score 1.4 vs 0.85
    • RS -0.6% vs -0.0%
  • TQQQ (#4)
    • Win% 85 vs 62
    • ER 2.3% vs 2.3%
    • Score 1.4 vs 0.71
    • RS -0.6% vs -3.8%
  • SMH (#5)
    • Win% 85 vs 61
    • ER 2.3% vs 1.4%
    • Score 1.4 vs 0.44
    • RS -0.6% vs -0.4%
  • TSLA (#6)
    • Win% 85 vs 72
    • ER 2.3% vs 0.9%
    • Score 1.4 vs 0.33
    • RS -0.6% vs -2.9%
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -1.89%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Trade Policy
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -3

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk (Iran) / Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Whipsaw
  • VIX Spike
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release
  • Don't Fight Volatility

Expected Value

EV $+26 (win +$47 @ 85.0% · loss -$88)

「做空 ARM:在 290.01 附近入场,目标 283.36,预期 +2.29%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →
Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-08-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Stock Edge

Why vs #2:ARM RS -0.6% vs MU -2.1%;ER 3.3% vs 2.5%;Win% 85 vs 84;relative weakness play

final = win_prob(85%) × ER(3.3%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS弱于QQQ -0.58%
  • 昨日弱势 -7.6% 延续下行
  • Gap 未过度延伸
  • VIX 走高

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (0.28%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 19.58% +19.30%
UUP
QQQ 0.28% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
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12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
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