30 秒看懂：这不是炒股 App，也不会帮你下单。它每天自动做一套「晨会 → 盘中检查 → 收盘复盘」的研究报告，供你阅读和决策参考。
你唯一必须做的事：每个交易日收盘后花约 5 分钟去核对——告诉系统今天猜对了还是猜错了。核对越多，Agent 才会越用越准。
首页「Morning 一页纸 · 决策卡」每天 5 行 + Hypothesis。下面是一个假例子，帮你理解每行含义：
NYSE 休市日（周末、法定假日）没有当日报告，这是正常的——系统不会生成 Driver、决策卡或 Step 更新。
此时请点首页的「上一交易日」链接，查看最近一份完整报告。休市期间的新闻摘要（如有）仅供参考，不构成交易决策。
Day 65
| 事件 | 预定 | 状态 | 实际值 | Consensus | Surprise | 典型影响（参考） | 实测反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 08:30 | ✅ | 159,044 | 175.0 | +90782.3% ⬆️ | NFP 大超预期 → 收益率+、金价压、成长承压 | QQQ +0.2% / SMH +0.3% (5min post-release) |
| Unemployment Rate | 08:30 | ✅ | 4.2% | 4.1% | +2.4% ⬆️ | 失业率意外上行 → 降息预期 → 债券+ | QQQ +0.2% / SMH +0.3% (5min post-release) |
H-2026-10-02-001Surprise：No major surprises vs typical driver mix
Lesson：NFP 日优先看 Macro Driver 链条：数据 → 利率 → 成长/价值轮动
{
"date": "2026-10-02",
"features": {
"dgs10": 5.29,
"dgs2": null,
"vix": 15.95,
"vix_chg": -2.68,
"qqq_chg": 1.35,
"smh_chg": 3.5,
"nvda_chg": 2.4,
"spy_chg": 0.0,
"oil_chg": 0.0,
"dxy_chg": -0.07,
"breadth_proxy": 0.8571428571428571,
"qqq_gap": 0.98,
"news_headline_count": 28,
"news_bearish_ratio": 0.273,
"news_ai_mentions": 31,
"news_macro_mentions": 6,
"news_oil_mentions": 5,
"news_risk_mentions": 0
},
"regime": {
"label": "Range",
"confidence": 0.5
},
"hypothesis": {
"id": "H-2026-10-02-001",
"statement": "弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售？（Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险）",
"evidence": [
"VIX=15.9 (low fear)",
"Breadth 71% (broad participation)"
],
"counter_evidence": [
"10Y=5.29% (elevated rates)"
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"status": "待验证"
},
"morning": {
"bias": "Bullish Bias",
"total": 4,
"driver_type": "Macro",
"daily_driver": "NFP",
"best_opportunity": {
"direction": "NO TRADE",
"symbol": "—",
"instrument": "—",
"horizon": "—",
"confidence": 45,
"entry": "—",
"stop": "—",
"target": "—",
"targets": [],
"duration": "—",
"why": [
"今日无任何标的达到交易阈值"
],
"why_chain": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"avoid": [],
"one_liner": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"advisory": true
},
"best_trades": {
"primary": null,
"secondary": null,
"watchlist": null,
"index_trade": "NO TRADE",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"stock_trades": [],
"top_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "SMH",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "ETF",
"horizon": "Swing",
"confidence": 66,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+0.50%",
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 0.45,
"final_score": 0.18,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 1.88,
"entry": "Above 626.0 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 625.98,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 625.95,
"high": 626.01,
"mid": 625.98,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 625.95
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 626.01
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 625.95–626.01",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "619.1 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 619.06,
"target": "629.1 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 629.14,
"targets": [
"629.1 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 625.95,
"orb_high": 626.01,
"orb_low": 619.06,
"prev_high": 609.0,
"prev_low": 609.0,
"prior_close": 609.0,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.88%",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +1.88% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"why_vs_runner_up": "SMH RS +1.9% vs NVDA +1.9%；ER 0.6% vs 0.5%；relative strength",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.88,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.0,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.88,
"gap_pct": 2.17,
"beta_proxy": 3.19,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -2.68,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(0.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 629.14,
"expected_low": 617.81,
"expected_close": 629.14,
"current_price": 625.7,
"upside_pct": 0.55,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.26,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.88%",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +1.88% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"gap_pct": 2.17,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.46,
"risk_reward_ratio": 2.17,
"reward_per_share": 3.16,
"risk_per_share": 6.92,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.46",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.17",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.46 · Risk:Reward 1:2.17",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "NFP · Oil Selloff",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $619.06",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 625.98,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 625.95,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 626.01,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 619.06,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 619.06,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 629.14,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 629.14,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(629.14-625.98)/625.98=0.50%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 SMH：在 625.98 附近入场，目标 629.14，预期 +0.50%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 87.6,
"shares": 14,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 96.88,
"win_usd": 44.24,
"loss_usd": 96.88,
"expected_value_usd": -3.74,
"risk_per_share": 6.92,
"reward_per_share": 3.16,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.46,
"risk_reward_ratio": 2.17,
"reward_per_share": 3.16,
"risk_per_share": 6.92,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.46",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.17",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.46 · Risk:Reward 1:2.17",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$44 / Loss -$97"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 87.6,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 14,
"max_loss_usd": 96.88,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 87.6% → 14 unit(s) → Max Loss $96.88"
},
"why_wins_today": [],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 0.5% vs 0.5%",
"R:R 0.45 vs 0.31"
],
"summary": "Why SMH over NVDA: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 0.5% vs 0.5% · R:R 0.45 vs 0.31"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"ER 0.5% vs 0.5%",
"RS +1.9% vs +1.6%",
"R:R 0.45 vs 0.35"
],
"summary": "Why SMH over TQQQ: ER 0.5% vs 0.5% · RS +1.9% vs +1.6% · R:R 0.45 vs 0.35"
},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 0.5% vs 0.4%",
"Score 0.18 vs 0.15",
"RS +1.9% vs +1.2%"
],
"summary": "Why SMH over ARM: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 0.5% vs 0.4% · Score 0.18 vs 0.15 · RS +1.9% vs +1.2%"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 0.5% vs 0.3%",
"Score 0.18 vs 0.1",
"RS +1.9% vs +0.9%"
],
"summary": "Why SMH over AMD: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 0.5% vs 0.3% · Score 0.18 vs 0.1 · RS +1.9% vs +0.9%"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 59",
"ER 0.5% vs 0.1%",
"Score 0.18 vs 0.02",
"RS +1.9% vs +0.0%"
],
"summary": "Why SMH over QQQ: Win% 66 vs 59 · ER 0.5% vs 0.1% · Score 0.18 vs 0.02 · RS +1.9% vs +0.0%"
}
],
"rank_summary": "SMH ranked #1 as top trade candidate today",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 66.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"similar_days": [
{
"date": "2026-08-28",
"outcome": "win",
"return_pct": 3.92,
"match_score": 3,
"direction": "LONG"
}
],
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": -3.74,
"win_scenario_usd": 44.24,
"loss_scenario_usd": 96.88,
"win_prob_pct": 66.0,
"display": "EV $-4 (win +$44 @ 66.0% · loss -$97)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 625.7,
"ideal_entry": 625.98,
"distance_pct": -0.04,
"remaining_er_pct": 0.55,
"live_expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 625.95,
"zone_high": 626.01,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
{
"rank": 2,
"symbol": "NVDA",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"confidence": 71,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+1.12%",
"expected_return_pct": 1.12,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 71.0,
"raw_total": 71.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 1.1,
"final_score": 0.18,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 1.89,
"entry": "Above 233.6 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 233.24,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 232.89,
"high": 233.58,
"mid": 233.24,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 233.58
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 232.89
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 232.89–233.58",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "230.9 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 230.86,
"target": "235.9 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 235.86,
"targets": [
"235.9 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 233.58,
"orb_high": 232.89,
"orb_low": 230.86,
"prev_high": 228.38,
"prev_low": 228.38,
"prior_close": 228.38,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.89%",
"News 8",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +1.89% · News 8 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.89,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.01,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.9,
"gap_pct": 1.59,
"beta_proxy": 3.2,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 8,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -2.68,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(71%) × ER(0.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 235.86,
"expected_low": 230.86,
"expected_close": 235.86,
"current_price": 234.67,
"upside_pct": 0.51,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.62,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.89%",
"News 8",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +1.89% · News 8 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"gap_pct": 1.59,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.1,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.91,
"reward_per_share": 2.62,
"risk_per_share": 2.38,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.10",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.91",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.10 · Risk:Reward 1:0.91",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "NFP · Oil Selloff",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $230.86",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 233.24,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 233.58,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 232.89,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 230.86,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 230.86,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 235.86,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 235.86,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(235.86-233.24)/233.24=1.12%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 0.51,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 NVDA：在 233.24 附近入场，目标 235.86，预期 +1.12%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 98.0,
"shares": 42,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 99.96,
"win_usd": 110.04,
"loss_usd": 99.96,
"expected_value_usd": 49.14,
"risk_per_share": 2.38,
"reward_per_share": 2.62,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.1,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.91,
"reward_per_share": 2.62,
"risk_per_share": 2.38,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.10",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.91",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.10 · Risk:Reward 1:0.91",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$110 / Loss -$100"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 98.0,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 42,
"max_loss_usd": 99.96,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 98.0% → 42 unit(s) → Max Loss $99.96"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": 1.89,
"runner_up_value": 1.88,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 2.13,
"runner_up_value": 2.08,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 3,
"dimension": "win_prob",
"label": "Highest Probability",
"primary_value": 71.0,
"runner_up_value": 71.0,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 4,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 1.1,
"runner_up_value": 1.0,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 5,
"dimension": "catalyst",
"label": "Best Catalyst Alignment",
"primary_value": 9.0,
"runner_up_value": 1.0,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 66",
"ER 1.1% vs 0.6%",
"R:R 1.1 vs 0.44"
],
"summary": "Why NVDA over SMH: Win% 71 vs 66 · ER 1.1% vs 0.6% · R:R 1.1 vs 0.44"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 66",
"ER 1.1% vs 0.5%",
"RS +1.9% vs +1.6%",
"R:R 1.1 vs 0.35"
],
"summary": "Why NVDA over TQQQ: Win% 71 vs 66 · ER 1.1% vs 0.5% · RS +1.9% vs +1.6% · R:R 1.1 vs 0.35"
},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"ER 1.1% vs 0.4%",
"Score 0.18 vs 0.15",
"RS +1.9% vs +1.2%",
"R:R 1.1 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why NVDA over ARM: ER 1.1% vs 0.4% · Score 0.18 vs 0.15 · RS +1.9% vs +1.2% · R:R 1.1 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"ER 1.1% vs 0.3%",
"Score 0.18 vs 0.1",
"RS +1.9% vs +0.9%",
"R:R 1.1 vs 1.0"
],
"summary": "Why NVDA over AMD: ER 1.1% vs 0.3% · Score 0.18 vs 0.1 · RS +1.9% vs +0.9% · R:R 1.1 vs 1.0"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 59",
"ER 1.1% vs 0.1%",
"Score 0.18 vs 0.02",
"RS +1.9% vs +0.0%",
"R:R 1.1 vs 0.62"
],
"summary": "Why NVDA over QQQ: Win% 71 vs 59 · ER 1.1% vs 0.1% · Score 0.18 vs 0.02 · RS +1.9% vs +0.0% · R:R 1.1 vs 0.62"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 71.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"similar_days": [
{
"date": "2026-08-28",
"outcome": "win",
"return_pct": 3.92,
"match_score": 3,
"direction": "LONG"
}
],
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 49.14,
"win_scenario_usd": 110.04,
"loss_scenario_usd": 99.96,
"win_prob_pct": 71.0,
"display": "EV $+49 (win +$110 @ 71.0% · loss -$100)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 234.67,
"ideal_entry": 233.24,
"distance_pct": 0.61,
"remaining_er_pct": 0.51,
"live_expected_return_pct": 0.51,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 232.89,
"zone_high": 233.58,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
{
"rank": 3,
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "ETF",
"horizon": "Swing",
"confidence": 66,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+0.55%",
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 0.61,
"final_score": 0.18,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 1.61,
"entry": "Above 80.0 (现价)",
"entry_source": "current",
"entry_price": 79.96,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 79.72,
"high": 80.2,
"mid": 79.96,
"anchors": [],
"display": "Entry Zone 79.72–80.20",
"entry_source": "current",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "79.2 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 79.24,
"target": "80.4 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 80.4,
"targets": [
"80.4 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 80.35,
"orb_high": 80.64,
"orb_low": 79.24,
"prev_high": 78.03,
"prev_low": 78.03,
"prior_close": 78.03,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.61%",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +1.61% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.61,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -0.27,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.45,
"gap_pct": 2.78,
"beta_proxy": 2.87,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -2.68,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(0.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 80.4,
"expected_low": 78.73,
"expected_close": 80.4,
"current_price": 79.96,
"upside_pct": 0.54,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.54,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.61%",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +1.61% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"gap_pct": 2.78,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.61,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.64,
"reward_per_share": 0.44,
"risk_per_share": 0.72,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.61",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.64",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.61 · Risk:Reward 1:1.64",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "NFP · Oil Selloff",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $79.24",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 79.96,
"source": "current",
"confidence": 67,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 80.35,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 79.24,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 79.24,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 80.4,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 80.4,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(80.4-79.96)/79.96=0.55%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 0.54,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 TQQQ：在 79.96 附近入场，目标 80.4，预期 +0.55%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 138,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 99.36,
"win_usd": 60.72,
"loss_usd": 99.36,
"expected_value_usd": 6.29,
"risk_per_share": 0.72,
"reward_per_share": 0.44,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.61,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.64,
"reward_per_share": 0.44,
"risk_per_share": 0.72,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.61",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.64",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.61 · Risk:Reward 1:1.64",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$61 / Loss -$99"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 138,
"max_loss_usd": 99.36,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 138 unit(s) → Max Loss $99.36"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "liquidity",
"label": "Highest Liquidity",
"primary_value": 5.0,
"runner_up_value": 5.0,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"RS +1.6% vs +1.9%",
"R:R 0.61 vs 0.44"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over SMH: RS +1.6% vs +1.9% · R:R 0.61 vs 0.44"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 0.6% vs 0.5%",
"RS +1.6% vs +1.9%",
"R:R 0.61 vs 0.31"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over NVDA: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 0.6% vs 0.5% · RS +1.6% vs +1.9% · R:R 0.61 vs 0.31"
},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 0.6% vs 0.4%",
"Score 0.18 vs 0.15",
"RS +1.6% vs +1.2%"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over ARM: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 0.6% vs 0.4% · Score 0.18 vs 0.15 · RS +1.6% vs +1.2%"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 71",
"ER 0.6% vs 0.3%",
"Score 0.18 vs 0.1",
"RS +1.6% vs +0.9%"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over AMD: Win% 66 vs 71 · ER 0.6% vs 0.3% · Score 0.18 vs 0.1 · RS +1.6% vs +0.9%"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 66 vs 59",
"ER 0.6% vs 0.1%",
"Score 0.18 vs 0.02",
"RS +1.6% vs +0.0%"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over QQQ: Win% 66 vs 59 · ER 0.6% vs 0.1% · Score 0.18 vs 0.02 · RS +1.6% vs +0.0%"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 66.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"similar_days": [
{
"date": "2026-08-28",
"outcome": "win",
"return_pct": 3.92,
"match_score": 3,
"direction": "LONG"
}
],
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 6.29,
"win_scenario_usd": 60.72,
"loss_scenario_usd": 99.36,
"win_prob_pct": 66.0,
"display": "EV $+6 (win +$61 @ 66.0% · loss -$99)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 79.96,
"ideal_entry": 79.96,
"distance_pct": 0.0,
"remaining_er_pct": 0.55,
"live_expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 79.72,
"zone_high": 80.2,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
{
"rank": 4,
"symbol": "ARM",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"confidence": 71,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+1.09%",
"expected_return_pct": 1.09,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 6.0
},
{
"factor": "Trend",
"key": "trend",
"points": 10.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
}
],
"total": 71.0,
"raw_total": 71.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 0.61,
"final_score": 0.15,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 1.2,
"entry": "Above 298.1 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 298.1,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 298.09,
"high": 298.1,
"mid": 298.1,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 298.09
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 298.1
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 298.09–298.10",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "292.7 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 292.73,
"target": "301.3 (预期高点)",
"target_source": "expected_high",
"target_price": 301.34,
"targets": [
"301.3 (预期高点)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 298.09,
"orb_high": 298.1,
"orb_low": 292.73,
"prev_high": null,
"prev_low": null,
"prior_close": 292.34,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.20%",
"昨日强势 +3.0% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +1.20% · 昨日强势 +3.0% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.2,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -0.68,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.79,
"gap_pct": 0.91,
"beta_proxy": 2.4,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -2.68,
"prior_day_change_pct": 3.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(71%) × ER(0.4%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 301.34,
"expected_low": 295.38,
"expected_close": 299.59,
"current_price": 298.36,
"upside_pct": 1.0,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.20%",
"昨日强势 +3.0% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +1.20% · 昨日强势 +3.0% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"gap_pct": 0.91,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.6,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.67,
"reward_per_share": 3.24,
"risk_per_share": 5.37,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.60",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.67",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.60 · Risk:Reward 1:1.67",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "NFP · Oil Selloff",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $292.73",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 298.1,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 98,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 298.09,
"weight_pct": 54.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 298.1,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Above Current",
"price": 298.36,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 292.73,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 292.73,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 301.34,
"source": "expected_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_high",
"label": "Expected High",
"price": 301.34,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(301.34-298.1)/298.1=1.09%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 0.41,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 ARM：在 298.1 附近入场，目标 301.34，预期 +1.09%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 53.7,
"shares": 18,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 96.66,
"win_usd": 58.32,
"loss_usd": 96.66,
"expected_value_usd": 13.38,
"risk_per_share": 5.37,
"reward_per_share": 3.24,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.6,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.67,
"reward_per_share": 3.24,
"risk_per_share": 5.37,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.60",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.67",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.60 · Risk:Reward 1:1.67",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$58 / Loss -$97"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 53.7,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 18,
"max_loss_usd": 96.66,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 53.7% → 18 unit(s) → Max Loss $96.66"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "win_prob",
"label": "Highest Probability",
"primary_value": 71.0,
"runner_up_value": 71.0,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 66",
"ER 1.1% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.15 vs 0.18",
"RS +1.2% vs +1.9%",
"R:R 0.61 vs 0.44"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over SMH: Win% 71 vs 66 · ER 1.1% vs 0.6% · Score 0.15 vs 0.18 · RS +1.2% vs +1.9% · R:R 0.61 vs 0.44"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"ER 1.1% vs 0.5%",
"Score 0.15 vs 0.18",
"RS +1.2% vs +1.9%",
"R:R 0.61 vs 0.31"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over NVDA: ER 1.1% vs 0.5% · Score 0.15 vs 0.18 · RS +1.2% vs +1.9% · R:R 0.61 vs 0.31"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 66",
"ER 1.1% vs 0.5%",
"Score 0.15 vs 0.18",
"RS +1.2% vs +1.6%",
"R:R 0.61 vs 0.35"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over TQQQ: Win% 71 vs 66 · ER 1.1% vs 0.5% · Score 0.15 vs 0.18 · RS +1.2% vs +1.6% · R:R 0.61 vs 0.35"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"ER 1.1% vs 0.3%",
"Score 0.15 vs 0.1",
"RS +1.2% vs +0.9%"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over AMD: ER 1.1% vs 0.3% · Score 0.15 vs 0.1 · RS +1.2% vs +0.9%"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 59",
"ER 1.1% vs 0.1%",
"Score 0.15 vs 0.02",
"RS +1.2% vs +0.0%"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over QQQ: Win% 71 vs 59 · ER 1.1% vs 0.1% · Score 0.15 vs 0.02 · RS +1.2% vs +0.0%"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 71.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"similar_days": [
{
"date": "2026-08-28",
"outcome": "win",
"return_pct": 3.92,
"match_score": 3,
"direction": "LONG"
}
],
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 13.38,
"win_scenario_usd": 58.32,
"loss_scenario_usd": 96.66,
"win_prob_pct": 71.0,
"display": "EV $+13 (win +$58 @ 71.0% · loss -$97)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 298.36,
"ideal_entry": 298.1,
"distance_pct": 0.09,
"remaining_er_pct": 1.0,
"live_expected_return_pct": 1.0,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 298.09,
"zone_high": 298.1,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
{
"rank": 5,
"symbol": "AMD",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"confidence": 71,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+1.20%",
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 6.0
},
{
"factor": "Trend",
"key": "trend",
"points": 10.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
}
],
"total": 71.0,
"raw_total": 71.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 0.97,
"final_score": 0.1,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 0.86,
"entry": "Above 624.5 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 625.06,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 624.52,
"high": 625.6,
"mid": 625.06,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 624.52
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 625.6
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 625–626",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "617.3 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 617.33,
"target": "632.6 (预期高点)",
"target_source": "expected_high",
"target_price": 632.56,
"targets": [
"632.6 (预期高点)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 624.52,
"orb_high": 625.6,
"orb_low": 617.33,
"prev_high": null,
"prev_low": null,
"prior_close": 615.73,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +0.86%",
"昨日强势 +2.4% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +0.86% · 昨日强势 +2.4% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.86,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -1.02,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.25,
"gap_pct": 1.19,
"beta_proxy": 2.0,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -2.68,
"prior_day_change_pct": 2.38
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(71%) × ER(0.3%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 632.56,
"expected_low": 620.04,
"expected_close": 628.1,
"current_price": 626.3,
"upside_pct": 1.0,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +0.86%",
"昨日强势 +2.4% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +0.86% · 昨日强势 +2.4% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"gap_pct": 1.19,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.97,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.03,
"reward_per_share": 7.5,
"risk_per_share": 7.73,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.97",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.03",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.97 · Risk:Reward 1:1.03",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "NFP · Oil Selloff",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $617.33",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 625.06,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 98,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 624.52,
"weight_pct": 54.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 625.6,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Above Current",
"price": 626.3,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 617.33,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 617.33,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 632.56,
"source": "expected_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_high",
"label": "Expected High",
"price": 632.56,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(632.56-625.06)/625.06=1.20%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 0.29,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 AMD：在 625.06 附近入场，目标 632.56，预期 +1.20%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 75.0,
"shares": 12,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 92.76,
"win_usd": 90.0,
"loss_usd": 92.76,
"expected_value_usd": 37.0,
"risk_per_share": 7.73,
"reward_per_share": 7.5,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.97,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.03,
"reward_per_share": 7.5,
"risk_per_share": 7.73,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.97",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.03",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.97 · Risk:Reward 1:1.03",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$90 / Loss -$93"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 75.0,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 12,
"max_loss_usd": 92.76,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 75.0% → 12 unit(s) → Max Loss $92.76"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "win_prob",
"label": "Highest Probability",
"primary_value": 71.0,
"runner_up_value": 71.0,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 66",
"ER 1.2% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.1 vs 0.18",
"RS +0.9% vs +1.9%",
"R:R 0.97 vs 0.44"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over SMH: Win% 71 vs 66 · ER 1.2% vs 0.6% · Score 0.1 vs 0.18 · RS +0.9% vs +1.9% · R:R 0.97 vs 0.44"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"ER 1.2% vs 0.5%",
"Score 0.1 vs 0.18",
"RS +0.9% vs +1.9%",
"R:R 0.97 vs 0.31"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over NVDA: ER 1.2% vs 0.5% · Score 0.1 vs 0.18 · RS +0.9% vs +1.9% · R:R 0.97 vs 0.31"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 66",
"ER 1.2% vs 0.5%",
"Score 0.1 vs 0.18",
"RS +0.9% vs +1.6%",
"R:R 0.97 vs 0.35"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over TQQQ: Win% 71 vs 66 · ER 1.2% vs 0.5% · Score 0.1 vs 0.18 · RS +0.9% vs +1.6% · R:R 0.97 vs 0.35"
},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"ER 1.2% vs 0.4%",
"Score 0.1 vs 0.15",
"RS +0.9% vs +1.2%"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over ARM: ER 1.2% vs 0.4% · Score 0.1 vs 0.15 · RS +0.9% vs +1.2%"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 71 vs 59",
"ER 1.2% vs 0.1%",
"Score 0.1 vs 0.02",
"RS +0.9% vs +0.0%",
"R:R 0.97 vs 0.62"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over QQQ: Win% 71 vs 59 · ER 1.2% vs 0.1% · Score 0.1 vs 0.02 · RS +0.9% vs +0.0% · R:R 0.97 vs 0.62"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 71.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 37.0,
"win_scenario_usd": 90.0,
"loss_scenario_usd": 92.76,
"win_prob_pct": 71.0,
"display": "EV $+37 (win +$90 @ 71.0% · loss -$93)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 626.3,
"ideal_entry": 625.06,
"distance_pct": 0.2,
"remaining_er_pct": 1.0,
"live_expected_return_pct": 1.0,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 624.52,
"zone_high": 625.6,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
}
],
"watchlist_items": [
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"rank": 6,
"win_prob": 59.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.08,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"rank": 7,
"win_prob": 59.0,
"expected_return_pct": -0.01,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 8,
"win_prob": 59.0,
"expected_return_pct": -0.06,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"rank": 9,
"win_prob": 59.0,
"expected_return_pct": -0.08,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "AVGO",
"rank": 10,
"win_prob": 55.0,
"expected_return_pct": -0.15,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.21% · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
}
],
"advisory": true,
"swing": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"duration": "Swing (days–weeks)",
"confidence": 76,
"entry": "Near 234.0 (swing zone)",
"entry_source": "swing_zone",
"entry_price": 233.96,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 231.3,
"high": 234.67,
"mid": 233.96,
"display": "$231.30–$234.67",
"source": "swing_pullback"
},
"stop": "226.0 (1.75xATR)",
"stop_source": "1.75xATR",
"stop_price": 225.98,
"target": "245.7 (T1 ~5.0%)",
"target_source": "2xATR_or_5pct",
"target_price": 245.66,
"targets": [
{
"price": 245.66,
"label": "T1",
"pct": 5.0
},
{
"price": 257.36,
"label": "T2",
"pct": 10.0
}
],
"expected_return_pct": 5.0,
"expected_move": "+5.00%",
"risk_reward": 1.47,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"final_score": 0.18,
"swing_quality": 5.397,
"atr": 5.3171,
"atr_source": "ATR14",
"level_formula": "stop=1.5–2×ATR or prior-week extreme; T1=max(5%, 2×ATR); T2=min(15%, max(10%, 3×ATR))",
"current_price": 234.67,
"why": [
"高流动性波段标的 NVDA",
"Prior day +0.0%",
"5D momentum +2.8%",
"RS vs QQQ +1.89%",
"News/8 catalyst hints",
"Swing score 5.4"
],
"why_chain": "高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +2.8% · RS vs QQQ +1.89%",
"invalidation": "Close beyond stop $225.98 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)",
"trade_summary_cn": "波段做多 NVDA：理想入场 $231.30–$234.67，止损 $225.98，目标 $245.66（约 +5.0%），持仓天数–数周",
"one_liner": "波段做多 NVDA：理想入场 $231.30–$234.67，止损 $225.98，目标 $245.66（约 +5.0%），持仓天数–数周",
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"advisory": true,
"label": "长线 · Swing Trade",
"separate_from_intraday": true
}
},
"edges": {
"macro_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "今日有重大催化剂（含地缘/突发）：NFP、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy",
"catalyst": "NFP、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy"
},
"index_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "QQQ 盘前/开盘 +0.81%"
},
"sector_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "SMH 领先 QQQ +1.98%",
"sector": "Semiconductor"
},
"stock_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "NVDA RS+新闻+量能",
"symbol": "NVDA"
},
"advisory": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议"
},
"trade_candidates": [
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"expected_high": 629.14,
"expected_low": 617.81,
"expected_close": 629.14,
"current_price": 625.7,
"upside_pct": 0.55,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.26,
"risk_reward": 0.44,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.44,
"risk_reward_ratio": 2.27,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.44",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.27",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.44 · Risk:Reward 1:2.27",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.18,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 2.17,
"relative_strength": 1.88,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.0,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.88,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.88%",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.88% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 2,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.88,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.0,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.88,
"gap_pct": 2.17,
"beta_proxy": 3.19,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -2.68,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(0.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "SMH RS +1.9% vs NVDA +1.9%；ER 0.6% vs 0.5%；relative strength",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 1,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"win_prob": 71.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 71.0,
"raw_total": 71.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.51,
"expected_high": 235.86,
"expected_low": 230.86,
"expected_close": 235.86,
"current_price": 234.67,
"upside_pct": 0.51,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.62,
"risk_reward": 0.31,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.31,
"risk_reward_ratio": 3.23,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.31",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:3.23",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.31 · Risk:Reward 1:3.23",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.18,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 1.59,
"relative_strength": 1.89,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.01,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.9,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.89%",
"News 8",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.89% · News 8 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 2,
"news_count": 8,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.89,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.01,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.9,
"gap_pct": 1.59,
"beta_proxy": 3.2,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 8,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -2.68,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(71%) × ER(0.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 2,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.54,
"expected_high": 80.4,
"expected_low": 78.73,
"expected_close": 80.4,
"current_price": 79.96,
"upside_pct": 0.54,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.54,
"risk_reward": 0.35,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.35,
"risk_reward_ratio": 2.86,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.35",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.86",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.35 · Risk:Reward 1:2.86",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.18,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 2.78,
"relative_strength": 1.61,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -0.27,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.45,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.61%",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.61% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 2,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.61,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -0.27,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.45,
"gap_pct": 2.78,
"beta_proxy": 2.87,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -2.68,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(66%) × ER(0.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 3,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"win_prob": 71.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 6.0
},
{
"factor": "Trend",
"key": "trend",
"points": 10.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
}
],
"total": 71.0,
"raw_total": 71.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.41,
"expected_high": 301.34,
"expected_low": 295.38,
"expected_close": 299.59,
"current_price": 298.36,
"upside_pct": 1.0,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.0,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.15,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 0.91,
"relative_strength": 1.2,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -0.68,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.79,
"prior_day_change_pct": 3.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.20%",
"昨日强势 +3.0% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.20% · 昨日强势 +3.0% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
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{
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},
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},
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},
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"scenario_primary": "A",
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"primary_symbol": "—",
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},
"surprise": "No major surprises vs typical driver mix",
"lesson": "NFP 日优先看 Macro Driver 链条：数据 → 利率 → 成长/价值轮动",
"playbook_refs": [
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],
"bayesian_drivers": {
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},
"data_gaps": []
}