Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 65
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 set at session re-eval: ARM · ADVISORY

Primary changed vs Morning Ideal

↻ ARM LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 306–308 · Live ER +3.71% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★★☆ ARM LONG ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 83.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ AMD LONG 77.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 71.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Macro — NFP

    Scheduled: Employment Situation (NFP — holiday-adjusted)

  2. Secondary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 5 oil headlines

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

NFP + Oil Selloff

  • scheduled NFP 95 Scheduled: Employment Situation (NFP — holiday-adjusted)
  • commodity Oil Selloff 78 XLE +0.0% · 5 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 export ban — France Floats Diesel, Crude Release Amid US Export Ban Risk

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 739.8 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 739.8 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 739.8 (昨日低点) and 739.8 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 SMH
SMH ranked #1 as top trade candidate today
LONG Swing 66.0% 0.5% Reward/Risk 0.46 Entry Zone 625.95–626.01 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$619.06 $629.14 RS vs QQQ +1.88% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% NFP · Oil Selloff Close below stop $619.06
2 NVDA LONG Swing 71.0% 1.12% Reward/Risk 1.10 Entry Zone 232.89–233.58 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$230.86 $235.86 RS vs QQQ +1.89% · News 8 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% NFP · Oil Selloff Close below stop $230.86
3 TQQQ LONG Swing 66.0% 0.55% Reward/Risk 0.61 Entry Zone 79.72–80.20 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$79.24 $80.4 RS vs QQQ +1.61% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% NFP · Oil Selloff Close below stop $79.24
4 ARM LONG Swing 71.0% 1.09% Reward/Risk 0.60 Entry Zone 298.09–298.10 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$292.73 $301.34 RS vs QQQ +1.20% · 昨日强势 +3.0% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0% NFP · Oil Selloff Close below stop $292.73
5 AMD LONG Swing 71.0% 1.2% Reward/Risk 0.97 Entry Zone 625–626 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$617.33 $632.56 RS vs QQQ +0.86% · 昨日强势 +2.4% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0% NFP · Oil Selloff Close below stop $617.33

Watchlist

  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • SPY · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • META · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • TSLA · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • AVGO · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.21% · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0%
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Macro — NFP
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.18 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty NFP、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

NFP / Oil Selloff Whipsaw

  • NFP / Oil Selloff Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $231.30–$234.67
Stop · Target $225.98 → $245.66 / T2 $257.36
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +2.8%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $225.98 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 NVDA:理想入场 $231.30–$234.67,止损 $225.98,目标 $245.66(约 +5.0%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-10-02-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 NFP 符合预期但 SMH 续跌 → QQQ < 昨低,放弃追多 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡(±0.25%)→ 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (1.32%)

Driver「Macro — NFP」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT -0.26% -1.58% ▼
IEF -0.23% -1.55% ▼
UUP -0.21% -1.53% ▼

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →