30 秒看懂：这不是炒股 App，也不会帮你下单。它每天自动做一套「晨会 → 盘中检查 → 收盘复盘」的研究报告，供你阅读和决策参考。
你唯一必须做的事：每个交易日收盘后花约 5 分钟去核对——告诉系统今天猜对了还是猜错了。核对越多，Agent 才会越用越准。
首页「Morning 一页纸 · 决策卡」每天 5 行 + Hypothesis。下面是一个假例子，帮你理解每行含义：
NYSE 休市日（周末、法定假日）没有当日报告，这是正常的——系统不会生成 Driver、决策卡或 Step 更新。
此时请点首页的「上一交易日」链接，查看最近一份完整报告。休市期间的新闻摘要（如有）仅供参考，不构成交易决策。
Day 46
| 事件 | 预定 | 状态 | 实际值 | Consensus | Surprise | 典型影响（参考） | 实测反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 08:30 | ✅ | 159,075 | 175.0 | +90800.0% ⬆️ | NFP 大超预期 → 收益率+、金价压、成长承压 | QQQ +0.0% / SMH +0.1% (5min post-release) |
| Unemployment Rate | 08:30 | ✅ | 4.1% | 4.1% | +0.0% | 失业率意外上行 → 降息预期 → 债券+ | QQQ +0.0% / SMH +0.1% (5min post-release) |
H-2026-09-04-001Surprise：AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day
Lesson：NFP 日优先看 Macro Driver 链条：数据 → 利率 → 成长/价值轮动
{
"date": "2026-09-04",
"features": {
"dgs10": 4.79,
"dgs2": null,
"vix": 14.12,
"vix_chg": -1.4,
"qqq_chg": 1.24,
"smh_chg": 2.91,
"nvda_chg": 2.4,
"spy_chg": 0.0,
"oil_chg": 0.0,
"dxy_chg": 0.08,
"breadth_proxy": 0.7142857142857143,
"qqq_gap": 1.65,
"news_headline_count": 26,
"news_bearish_ratio": 0.182,
"news_ai_mentions": 40,
"news_macro_mentions": 12,
"news_oil_mentions": 0,
"news_risk_mentions": 0
},
"regime": {
"label": "AI Expansion",
"confidence": 0.82
},
"hypothesis": {
"id": "H-2026-09-04-001",
"statement": "弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售？（Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险）",
"evidence": [
"VIX=14.1 (low fear)",
"Breadth 100% (broad participation)"
],
"counter_evidence": [
"10Y=4.79% (elevated rates)"
],
"confidence": 0.81,
"status": "待验证"
},
"morning": {
"bias": "Bullish Bias",
"total": 4,
"driver_type": "Macro",
"daily_driver": "NFP",
"best_opportunity": {
"direction": "NO TRADE",
"symbol": "—",
"instrument": "—",
"horizon": "—",
"confidence": 45,
"entry": "—",
"stop": "—",
"target": "—",
"targets": [],
"duration": "—",
"why": [
"今日无任何标的达到交易阈值"
],
"why_chain": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"avoid": [],
"one_liner": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"advisory": true
},
"best_trades": {
"primary": null,
"secondary": null,
"watchlist": null,
"index_trade": "NO TRADE",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"stock_trades": [],
"top_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "ARM",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"confidence": 72,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+1.45%",
"expected_return_pct": 1.45,
"win_prob": 72.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 72.0,
"raw_total": 72.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 0.86,
"final_score": 0.56,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 3.82,
"entry": "Above 247.9 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 248.21,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 247.91,
"high": 248.51,
"mid": 248.21,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 247.91
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 248.51
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 247.91–248.51",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "244.0 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 244.02,
"target": "251.8 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 251.81,
"targets": [
"251.8 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 247.91,
"orb_high": 248.51,
"orb_low": 244.02,
"prev_high": 234.86,
"prev_low": 234.86,
"prior_close": 234.86,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +3.82%",
"RS vs SMH +3.44%",
"Volume 信号",
"Geometric upside 1.45% < soft 1.5%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +3.82% · RS vs SMH +3.44% · Volume 信号",
"why_vs_runner_up": "ARM RS +3.8% vs TSLA +0.6%；ER 1.6% vs 0.4%；Win% 72 vs 66；higher beta (3.2 vs 1.4)；relative strength",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 3.82,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.44,
"relative_weakness_score": -5.88,
"gap_pct": 4.75,
"beta_proxy": 3.18,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -1.4,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(72%) × ER(1.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 251.81,
"expected_low": 242.59,
"expected_close": 251.81,
"current_price": 247.95,
"upside_pct": 1.56,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.16,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +3.82%",
"RS vs SMH +3.44%",
"Volume 信号",
"Geometric upside 1.45% < soft 1.5%"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +3.82% · RS vs SMH +3.44% · Volume 信号",
"gap_pct": 4.75,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.86,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.16,
"reward_per_share": 3.6,
"risk_per_share": 4.19,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.86",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.16",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.86 · Risk:Reward 1:1.16",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "NFP · Trade Policy",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $244.02",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 248.21,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 98,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 247.91,
"weight_pct": 54.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 248.51,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Above Current",
"price": 247.95,
"weight_pct": 23.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 244.02,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 244.02,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 251.81,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 251.81,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(251.81-248.21)/248.21=1.45%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 1.56,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 ARM：在 248.21 附近入场，目标 251.81，预期 +1.45%",
"expected_r": 0.3392,
"rr_below_hard_min": true,
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 57.1,
"shares": 23,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 96.37,
"win_usd": 82.8,
"loss_usd": 96.37,
"expected_value_usd": 32.63,
"risk_per_share": 4.19,
"reward_per_share": 3.6,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.86,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.16,
"reward_per_share": 3.6,
"risk_per_share": 4.19,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.86",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.16",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.86 · Risk:Reward 1:1.16",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$83 / Loss -$96"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 57.1,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 23,
"max_loss_usd": 96.37,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 57.1% → 23 unit(s) → Max Loss $96.37"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": 3.82,
"runner_up_value": 3.39,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"Win% 72 vs 66",
"ER 1.4% vs 0.4%",
"Score 0.56 vs 0.42",
"RS +3.8% vs +0.6%"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over TSLA: Win% 72 vs 66 · ER 1.4% vs 0.4% · Score 0.56 vs 0.42 · RS +3.8% vs +0.6%"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 72 vs 66",
"ER 1.4% vs 1.0%",
"Score 0.56 vs 0.33",
"RS +3.8% vs +3.4%",
"R:R 0.86 vs 0.63"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over TQQQ: Win% 72 vs 66 · ER 1.4% vs 1.0% · Score 0.56 vs 0.33 · RS +3.8% vs +3.4% · R:R 0.86 vs 0.63"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 72 vs 77",
"ER 1.4% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.56 vs 0.22",
"RS +3.8% vs +1.3%",
"R:R 0.86 vs 0.48"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over NVDA: Win% 72 vs 77 · ER 1.4% vs 0.6% · Score 0.56 vs 0.22 · RS +3.8% vs +1.3% · R:R 0.86 vs 0.48"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 72 vs 66",
"ER 1.4% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.56 vs 0.21",
"RS +3.8% vs +1.7%",
"R:R 0.86 vs 0.78"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over META: Win% 72 vs 66 · ER 1.4% vs 0.6% · Score 0.56 vs 0.21 · RS +3.8% vs +1.7% · R:R 0.86 vs 0.78"
},
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 72 vs 71",
"ER 1.4% vs 0.3%",
"Score 0.56 vs 0.12",
"RS +3.8% vs +0.6%",
"R:R 0.86 vs 0.62"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over MSFT: Win% 72 vs 71 · ER 1.4% vs 0.3% · Score 0.56 vs 0.12 · RS +3.8% vs +0.6% · R:R 0.86 vs 0.62"
}
],
"rank_summary": "ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 72.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"similar_days": [
{
"date": "2026-08-28",
"outcome": "win",
"return_pct": 3.92,
"match_score": 5,
"direction": "LONG"
}
],
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 32.63,
"win_scenario_usd": 82.8,
"loss_scenario_usd": 96.37,
"win_prob_pct": 72.0,
"display": "EV $+33 (win +$83 @ 72.0% · loss -$96)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 247.95,
"ideal_entry": 248.21,
"distance_pct": -0.1,
"remaining_er_pct": 1.56,
"live_expected_return_pct": 1.56,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 247.91,
"zone_high": 248.51,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
}
],
"watchlist_items": [
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"rank": 2,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.43,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.61% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%（软门槛）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 3,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"expected_return_pct": 1.0,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +3.39% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.08 < 0.20（EV门禁）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 4,
"win_prob": 77.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.58,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.29% · RS vs SMH +0.91% · News 8 · Volume 信号",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 5,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.63,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.73% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.17 < 0.20（EV门禁）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"rank": 6,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.32,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.64% · News 1 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.15 < 0.20（EV门禁）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
}
],
"advisory": true,
"swing": {
"symbol": "META",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"duration": "Swing (days–weeks)",
"confidence": 71,
"entry": "Near 611.6 (swing zone)",
"entry_source": "swing_zone",
"entry_price": 611.64,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 601.82,
"high": 613.48,
"mid": 611.64,
"display": "$601.82–$613.48",
"source": "swing_pullback"
},
"stop": "582.2 (1.75xATR)",
"stop_source": "1.75xATR",
"stop_price": 582.17,
"target": "650.9 (T1 ~6.4%)",
"target_source": "2xATR_or_5pct",
"target_price": 650.94,
"targets": [
{
"price": 650.94,
"label": "T1",
"pct": 6.43
},
{
"price": 672.8,
"label": "T2",
"pct": 10.0
}
],
"expected_return_pct": 6.43,
"expected_move": "+6.43%",
"risk_reward": 1.33,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"final_score": 0.21,
"swing_quality": 5.844,
"atr": 19.6479,
"atr_source": "ATR14",
"level_formula": "stop=1.5–2×ATR or prior-week extreme; T1=max(5%, 2×ATR); T2=min(15%, max(10%, 3×ATR))",
"current_price": 613.48,
"why": [
"高流动性波段标的 META",
"Prior day +0.0%",
"5D momentum +6.9%",
"RS vs QQQ +1.73%",
"Swing score 5.8"
],
"why_chain": "高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +6.9% · RS vs QQQ +1.73%",
"invalidation": "Close beyond stop $582.17 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)",
"trade_summary_cn": "波段做多 META：理想入场 $601.82–$613.48，止损 $582.17，目标 $650.94（约 +6.4%），持仓天数–数周",
"one_liner": "波段做多 META：理想入场 $601.82–$613.48，止损 $582.17，目标 $650.94（约 +6.4%），持仓天数–数周",
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"advisory": true,
"label": "长线 · Swing Trade",
"separate_from_intraday": true
}
},
"edges": {
"macro_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "今日有重大催化剂（含地缘/突发）：NFP、Trade Policy",
"catalyst": "NFP、Trade Policy"
},
"index_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "QQQ 盘前/开盘 +1.76%"
},
"sector_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "SMH 领先 QQQ +0.35%",
"sector": "Semiconductor"
},
"stock_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "NVDA RS+新闻+量能",
"symbol": "NVDA"
},
"advisory": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议"
},
"trade_candidates": [
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"win_prob": 72.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 72.0,
"raw_total": 72.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 1.56,
"expected_high": 251.81,
"expected_low": 242.59,
"expected_close": 251.81,
"current_price": 247.95,
"upside_pct": 1.56,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.16,
"risk_reward": 0.72,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.72,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.39,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.72",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.39",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.72 · Risk:Reward 1:1.39",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.2384,
"final_score": 0.56,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 4.75,
"relative_strength": 3.82,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.44,
"relative_weakness_score": -5.88,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +3.82%",
"RS vs SMH +3.44%",
"Volume 信号",
"Geometric upside 1.45% < soft 1.5%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +3.82% · RS vs SMH +3.44% · Volume 信号",
"score": 6,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 3.82,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.44,
"relative_weakness_score": -5.88,
"gap_pct": 4.75,
"beta_proxy": 3.18,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": -1.4,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(72%) × ER(1.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "ARM RS +3.8% vs TSLA +0.6%；ER 1.6% vs 0.4%；Win% 72 vs 66；higher beta (3.2 vs 1.4)；relative strength",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 1,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.43,
"expected_high": 376.37,
"expected_low": 362.51,
"expected_close": 367.0,
"current_price": 365.43,
"upside_pct": 2.99,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 3.74,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 3.74,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.27,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 3.74",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.27",
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"action": "N/A"
},
"s7": {
"actual_driver": "NFP",
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.611,
"bond": 0.148,
"oil": 0.0,
"macro": 0.191,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {
"NFP": 0.252
}
}
}
},
"trade_plan": {},
"actual": {},
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.611,
"bond": 0.148,
"oil": 0.0,
"macro": 0.191,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {
"NFP": 0.252
}
},
"labels": {
"actual_driver": "NFP",
"agent_driver": "NFP",
"agent_driver_type": "Macro",
"corrected_driver_from_verify": null,
"driver_splits": {
"NFP": 0.25244023636852
},
"hypothesis_correct": "对",
"scenario_primary": "A",
"scenario_actual": "A",
"scenario_correct": true,
"trade_recommendation": "—",
"trade_direction": "NO TRADE",
"primary_symbol": "—",
"predicted_return_pct": null,
"prediction_error_pct": null
},
"surprise": "AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day",
"lesson": "NFP 日优先看 Macro Driver 链条：数据 → 利率 → 成长/价值轮动",
"playbook_refs": [
"Case-44"
],
"bayesian_drivers": {
"AI": 1.0,
"Bond": 0.0,
"Macro": 0.0,
"Oil": 0.0,
"Risk": 0.0
},
"data_gaps": []
}