Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 46
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MSFT Avoid 71.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 60.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 76.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Macro — NFP

    Scheduled: Employment Situation (NFP — holiday-adjusted)

  2. Secondary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  3. Tertiary Momentum — AI Momentum

    SMH +2.1% leading

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

NFP

  • scheduled NFP 95 Scheduled: Employment Situation (NFP — holiday-adjusted)
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 709.2 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 709.2 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 709.2 (昨日低点) and 709.2 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS
LONG Swing 72.0% 1.45% Reward/Risk 0.86 Entry Zone 247.91–248.51 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$244.02 $251.81 RS vs QQQ +3.82% · RS vs SMH +3.44% · Volume 信号 NFP · Trade Policy Close below stop $244.02

Watchlist

  • TSLA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.61% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +3.39% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.08 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • NVDA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.29% · RS vs SMH +0.91% · News 8 · Volume 信号
  • META · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.73% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.17 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • MSFT · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.64% · News 1 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.15 < 0.20(EV门禁)
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Macro — NFP
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.33 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty NFP、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

NFP / Trade Policy Whipsaw

  • NFP / Trade Policy Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $601.82–$613.48
Stop · Target $582.17 → $650.94 / T2 $672.8
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +6.9%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $582.17 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 META:理想入场 $601.82–$613.48,止损 $582.17,目标 $650.94(约 +6.4%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-04-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 NFP 符合预期但 SMH 续跌 → QQQ < 昨低,放弃追多 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡(±0.25%)→ 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (5.68%)

Driver「Macro — NFP」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT — — —
IEF — — —
UUP — — —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →