30 秒看懂：这不是炒股 App，也不会帮你下单。它每天自动做一套「晨会 → 盘中检查 → 收盘复盘」的研究报告，供你阅读和决策参考。
你唯一必须做的事：每个交易日收盘后花约 5 分钟去核对——告诉系统今天猜对了还是猜错了。核对越多，Agent 才会越用越准。
首页「Morning 一页纸 · 决策卡」每天 5 行 + Hypothesis。下面是一个假例子，帮你理解每行含义：
NYSE 休市日（周末、法定假日）没有当日报告，这是正常的——系统不会生成 Driver、决策卡或 Step 更新。
此时请点首页的「上一交易日」链接，查看最近一份完整报告。休市期间的新闻摘要（如有）仅供参考，不构成交易决策。
Day 37
H-2026-08-24-001Surprise：AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day
Lesson：AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量
{
"date": "2026-08-24",
"features": {
"dgs10": 4.69,
"dgs2": null,
"vix": 16.03,
"vix_chg": 5.95,
"qqq_chg": -0.58,
"smh_chg": -2.94,
"nvda_chg": -3.84,
"spy_chg": 0.0,
"oil_chg": 0.0,
"dxy_chg": 0.19,
"breadth_proxy": 0.7142857142857143,
"qqq_gap": -0.48,
"news_headline_count": 34,
"news_bearish_ratio": 0.125,
"news_ai_mentions": 72,
"news_macro_mentions": 8,
"news_oil_mentions": 4,
"news_risk_mentions": 3
},
"regime": {
"label": "AI Expansion",
"confidence": 0.82
},
"hypothesis": {
"id": "H-2026-08-24-001",
"statement": "AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable",
"evidence": [
"VIX=16.0 (low fear)"
],
"counter_evidence": [
"VIX↑ 6.0% (risk-off pressure)",
"NVDA -1.1%",
"SMH -1.5%"
],
"confidence": 0.46,
"status": "待验证"
},
"morning": {
"bias": "Strong Bear",
"total": -5,
"driver_type": "Political",
"daily_driver": "Geopolitical Risk",
"best_opportunity": {
"direction": "SHORT",
"symbol": "ARM",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"confidence": 80,
"confidence_stars": "★★★★☆",
"entry": "Below 238.0 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 238.0,
"stop": "239.5 (ORB高点)",
"stop_source": "orb_high",
"stop_price": 239.49,
"target": "233.2 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 233.15,
"target_action": "买入/平空仓",
"targets": [
"233.2 (预期收盘)"
],
"duration": "Swing",
"why": [
"RS弱于QQQ -5.08%",
"RS弱于SMH -3.74%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高"
],
"why_chain": "RS弱于QQQ -5.08% · RS弱于SMH -3.74% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高",
"why_vs_runner_up": "ARM RS -5.1% vs MU -3.5%；ER 1.9% vs 1.3%；higher beta (37.3 vs 25.7)；relative weakness play",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -5.08,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -3.74,
"relative_weakness_score": 7.32,
"gap_pct": -5.24,
"beta_proxy": 37.29,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 5.95,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(80%) × ER(1.9%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"win_prob": 80.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 20.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 80.0,
"raw_total": 80.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 2.04,
"expected_move": "+2.04%",
"return_calculation": "(238.0-233.15)/238.0=2.04%",
"trade_summary_cn": "做空 ARM：在 238.0 附近入场，目标 233.15，预期 +2.04%",
"risk_reward": 3.26,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 3.26,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.31,
"reward_per_share": 4.85,
"risk_per_share": 1.49,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 3.26",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"display": "Reward/Risk 3.26 · Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"entry_zone": {
"low": 237.29,
"high": 238.71,
"mid": 238.0,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 238.0
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 237–239",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"rank_summary": "ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 80.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"similar_days": null,
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 239.99,
"win_scenario_usd": 324.95,
"loss_scenario_usd": 99.83,
"win_prob_pct": 80.0,
"display": "EV $+240 (win +$325 @ 80.0% · loss -$100)"
},
"final_score": 0.75,
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 238.0,
"orb_high": 239.49,
"orb_low": 235.17,
"prev_high": 250.72,
"prev_low": 250.72,
"prior_close": 250.72,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 238.0,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 238.0,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Below Current",
"price": 237.63,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 239.49,
"source": "orb_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 239.49,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 233.15,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 233.15,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 67,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 99.83,
"win_usd": 324.95,
"loss_usd": 99.83,
"expected_value_usd": 239.99,
"risk_per_share": 1.49,
"reward_per_share": 4.85,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 3.26,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.31,
"reward_per_share": 4.85,
"risk_per_share": 1.49,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 3.26",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"display": "Reward/Risk 3.26 · Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$325 / Loss -$100"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 67,
"max_loss_usd": 99.83,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $99.83"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": -5.08,
"runner_up_value": 4.9,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 4.27,
"runner_up_value": 4.19,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 3,
"dimension": "win_prob",
"label": "Highest Probability",
"primary_value": 80.0,
"runner_up_value": 80.0,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 4,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 3.26,
"runner_up_value": 1.6,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "MU",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.0% vs 1.3%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.5",
"RS -5.1% vs -3.5%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 0.43",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over MU: ER 2.0% vs 1.3% · Score 0.75 vs 0.5 · RS -5.1% vs -3.5% · R:R 3.26 vs 0.43 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 80 vs 54",
"ER 2.0% vs 0.4%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.11",
"RS -5.1% vs -1.3%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 0.73",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over SMH: Win% 80 vs 54 · ER 2.0% vs 0.4% · Score 0.75 vs 0.11 · RS -5.1% vs -1.3% · R:R 3.26 vs 0.73 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 80 vs 54",
"ER 2.0% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.09",
"RS -5.1% vs -0.9%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 1.6",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over NVDA: Win% 80 vs 54 · ER 2.0% vs 0.2% · Score 0.75 vs 0.09 · RS -5.1% vs -0.9% · R:R 3.26 vs 1.6 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 80 vs 48",
"ER 2.0% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.05",
"RS -5.1% vs -0.4%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 0.53",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over TQQQ: Win% 80 vs 48 · ER 2.0% vs 0.2% · Score 0.75 vs 0.05 · RS -5.1% vs -0.4% · R:R 3.26 vs 0.53 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "XLK",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 80 vs 71",
"ER 2.0% vs 0.1%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.05",
"RS -5.1% vs -0.5%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 1.07",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over XLK: Win% 80 vs 71 · ER 2.0% vs 0.1% · Score 0.75 vs 0.05 · RS -5.1% vs -0.5% · R:R 3.26 vs 1.07 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"avoid": [],
"one_liner": "做空 ARM：在 238.0 附近入场，目标 233.15，预期 +2.04%",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"advisory": true
},
"best_trades": {
"primary": {
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "ARM",
"direction": "SHORT",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"confidence": 80,
"confidence_stars": "★★★★☆",
"expected_move": "+2.04%",
"expected_return_pct": 2.04,
"win_prob": 80.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 20.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 80.0,
"raw_total": 80.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 3.26,
"final_score": 0.75,
"trade_action": "Small",
"relative_strength": -5.08,
"entry": "Below 238.0 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 238.0,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 237.29,
"high": 238.71,
"mid": 238.0,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 238.0
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 237–239",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "239.5 (ORB高点)",
"stop_source": "orb_high",
"stop_price": 239.49,
"target": "233.2 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 233.15,
"targets": [
"233.2 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 238.0,
"orb_high": 239.49,
"orb_low": 235.17,
"prev_high": 250.72,
"prev_low": 250.72,
"prior_close": 250.72,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS弱于QQQ -5.08%",
"RS弱于SMH -3.74%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高"
],
"why_chain": "RS弱于QQQ -5.08% · RS弱于SMH -3.74% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高",
"why_vs_runner_up": "ARM RS -5.1% vs MU -3.5%；ER 1.9% vs 1.3%；higher beta (37.3 vs 25.7)；relative weakness play",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -5.08,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -3.74,
"relative_weakness_score": 7.32,
"gap_pct": -5.24,
"beta_proxy": 37.29,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 5.95,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(80%) × ER(1.9%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 243.32,
"expected_low": 233.15,
"expected_close": 233.15,
"current_price": 237.63,
"upside_pct": 1.88,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.39,
"why_factors": [
"RS弱于QQQ -5.08%",
"RS弱于SMH -3.74%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高"
],
"why_today": "RS弱于QQQ -5.08% · RS弱于SMH -3.74% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高",
"gap_pct": -5.24,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 3.26,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.31,
"reward_per_share": 4.85,
"risk_per_share": 1.49,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 3.26",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"display": "Reward/Risk 3.26 · Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk",
"invalidation": "Close above stop $239.49 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 238.0,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 238.0,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Below Current",
"price": 237.63,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 239.49,
"source": "orb_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 239.49,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 233.15,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 233.15,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(238.0-233.15)/238.0=2.04%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 1.88,
"target_action": "买入/平空仓",
"trade_summary_cn": "做空 ARM：在 238.0 附近入场，目标 233.15，预期 +2.04%",
"expected_r": 2.408,
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 67,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 99.83,
"win_usd": 324.95,
"loss_usd": 99.83,
"expected_value_usd": 239.99,
"risk_per_share": 1.49,
"reward_per_share": 4.85,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 3.26,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.31,
"reward_per_share": 4.85,
"risk_per_share": 1.49,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 3.26",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"display": "Reward/Risk 3.26 · Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$325 / Loss -$100"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 67,
"max_loss_usd": 99.83,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $99.83"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": -5.08,
"runner_up_value": 4.9,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 4.27,
"runner_up_value": 4.19,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 3,
"dimension": "win_prob",
"label": "Highest Probability",
"primary_value": 80.0,
"runner_up_value": 80.0,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 4,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 3.26,
"runner_up_value": 1.6,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "MU",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.0% vs 1.3%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.5",
"RS -5.1% vs -3.5%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 0.43",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over MU: ER 2.0% vs 1.3% · Score 0.75 vs 0.5 · RS -5.1% vs -3.5% · R:R 3.26 vs 0.43 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 80 vs 54",
"ER 2.0% vs 0.4%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.11",
"RS -5.1% vs -1.3%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 0.73",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over SMH: Win% 80 vs 54 · ER 2.0% vs 0.4% · Score 0.75 vs 0.11 · RS -5.1% vs -1.3% · R:R 3.26 vs 0.73 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 80 vs 54",
"ER 2.0% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.09",
"RS -5.1% vs -0.9%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 1.6",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over NVDA: Win% 80 vs 54 · ER 2.0% vs 0.2% · Score 0.75 vs 0.09 · RS -5.1% vs -0.9% · R:R 3.26 vs 1.6 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 80 vs 48",
"ER 2.0% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.05",
"RS -5.1% vs -0.4%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 0.53",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over TQQQ: Win% 80 vs 48 · ER 2.0% vs 0.2% · Score 0.75 vs 0.05 · RS -5.1% vs -0.4% · R:R 3.26 vs 0.53 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "XLK",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 80 vs 71",
"ER 2.0% vs 0.1%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.05",
"RS -5.1% vs -0.5%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 1.07",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over XLK: Win% 80 vs 71 · ER 2.0% vs 0.1% · Score 0.75 vs 0.05 · RS -5.1% vs -0.5% · R:R 3.26 vs 1.07 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"rank_summary": "ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 80.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 239.99,
"win_scenario_usd": 324.95,
"loss_scenario_usd": 99.83,
"win_prob_pct": 80.0,
"display": "EV $+240 (win +$325 @ 80.0% · loss -$100)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 237.63,
"ideal_entry": 238.0,
"distance_pct": 0.16,
"remaining_er_pct": 1.89,
"live_expected_return_pct": 1.89,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 237.29,
"zone_high": 238.71,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
"secondary": null,
"watchlist": null,
"index_trade": "NO TRADE",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": null,
"stock_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "ARM",
"direction": "SHORT",
"confidence": 80,
"expected_move": "+2.04%",
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -5.08% · RS弱于SMH -3.74% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高"
}
],
"top_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "ARM",
"direction": "SHORT",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"confidence": 80,
"confidence_stars": "★★★★☆",
"expected_move": "+2.04%",
"expected_return_pct": 2.04,
"win_prob": 80.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 20.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 80.0,
"raw_total": 80.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 3.26,
"final_score": 0.75,
"trade_action": "Small",
"relative_strength": -5.08,
"entry": "Below 238.0 (VWAP)",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"entry_price": 238.0,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 237.29,
"high": 238.71,
"mid": 238.0,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 238.0
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 237–239",
"entry_source": "vwap",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "239.5 (ORB高点)",
"stop_source": "orb_high",
"stop_price": 239.49,
"target": "233.2 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 233.15,
"targets": [
"233.2 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 238.0,
"orb_high": 239.49,
"orb_low": 235.17,
"prev_high": 250.72,
"prev_low": 250.72,
"prior_close": 250.72,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS弱于QQQ -5.08%",
"RS弱于SMH -3.74%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高"
],
"why_chain": "RS弱于QQQ -5.08% · RS弱于SMH -3.74% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高",
"why_vs_runner_up": "ARM RS -5.1% vs MU -3.5%；ER 1.9% vs 1.3%；higher beta (37.3 vs 25.7)；relative weakness play",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -5.08,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -3.74,
"relative_weakness_score": 7.32,
"gap_pct": -5.24,
"beta_proxy": 37.29,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 5.95,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(80%) × ER(1.9%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 243.32,
"expected_low": 233.15,
"expected_close": 233.15,
"current_price": 237.63,
"upside_pct": 1.88,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.39,
"why_factors": [
"RS弱于QQQ -5.08%",
"RS弱于SMH -3.74%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高"
],
"why_today": "RS弱于QQQ -5.08% · RS弱于SMH -3.74% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高",
"gap_pct": -5.24,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 3.26,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.31,
"reward_per_share": 4.85,
"risk_per_share": 1.49,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 3.26",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"display": "Reward/Risk 3.26 · Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk",
"invalidation": "Close above stop $239.49 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 238.0,
"source": "vwap",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 238.0,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "current",
"label": "Below Current",
"price": 237.63,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 239.49,
"source": "orb_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 239.49,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 233.15,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 233.15,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(238.0-233.15)/238.0=2.04%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 1.88,
"target_action": "买入/平空仓",
"trade_summary_cn": "做空 ARM：在 238.0 附近入场，目标 233.15，预期 +2.04%",
"expected_r": 2.408,
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 67,
"contracts": 1,
"max_loss_usd": 99.83,
"win_usd": 324.95,
"loss_usd": 99.83,
"expected_value_usd": 239.99,
"risk_per_share": 1.49,
"reward_per_share": 4.85,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 3.26,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.31,
"reward_per_share": 4.85,
"risk_per_share": 1.49,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 3.26",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"display": "Reward/Risk 3.26 · Risk:Reward 1:0.31",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$325 / Loss -$100"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 1,
"shares": 67,
"max_loss_usd": 99.83,
"size_label": "Small",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 1 unit(s) → Max Loss $99.83"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": -5.08,
"runner_up_value": 4.9,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 4.27,
"runner_up_value": 4.19,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 3,
"dimension": "win_prob",
"label": "Highest Probability",
"primary_value": 80.0,
"runner_up_value": 80.0,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 4,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 3.26,
"runner_up_value": 1.6,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "MU",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"ER 2.0% vs 1.3%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.5",
"RS -5.1% vs -3.5%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 0.43",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over MU: ER 2.0% vs 1.3% · Score 0.75 vs 0.5 · RS -5.1% vs -3.5% · R:R 3.26 vs 0.43 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 80 vs 54",
"ER 2.0% vs 0.4%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.11",
"RS -5.1% vs -1.3%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 0.73",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over SMH: Win% 80 vs 54 · ER 2.0% vs 0.4% · Score 0.75 vs 0.11 · RS -5.1% vs -1.3% · R:R 3.26 vs 0.73 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 80 vs 54",
"ER 2.0% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.09",
"RS -5.1% vs -0.9%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 1.6",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over NVDA: Win% 80 vs 54 · ER 2.0% vs 0.2% · Score 0.75 vs 0.09 · RS -5.1% vs -0.9% · R:R 3.26 vs 1.6 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 80 vs 48",
"ER 2.0% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.05",
"RS -5.1% vs -0.4%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 0.53",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over TQQQ: Win% 80 vs 48 · ER 2.0% vs 0.2% · Score 0.75 vs 0.05 · RS -5.1% vs -0.4% · R:R 3.26 vs 0.53 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
},
{
"symbol": "XLK",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 80 vs 71",
"ER 2.0% vs 0.1%",
"Score 0.75 vs 0.05",
"RS -5.1% vs -0.5%",
"R:R 3.26 vs 1.07",
"Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
],
"summary": "Why ARM over XLK: Win% 80 vs 71 · ER 2.0% vs 0.1% · Score 0.75 vs 0.05 · RS -5.1% vs -0.5% · R:R 3.26 vs 1.07 · Tradeable (Small) vs Pass"
}
],
"rank_summary": "ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 80.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 239.99,
"win_scenario_usd": 324.95,
"loss_scenario_usd": 99.83,
"win_prob_pct": 80.0,
"display": "EV $+240 (win +$325 @ 80.0% · loss -$100)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 237.63,
"ideal_entry": 238.0,
"distance_pct": 0.16,
"remaining_er_pct": 1.89,
"live_expected_return_pct": 1.89,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 237.29,
"zone_high": 238.71,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
}
],
"watchlist_items": [
{
"symbol": "MU",
"rank": 2,
"win_prob": 80.0,
"expected_return_pct": 1.26,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -3.46% · RS弱于SMH -2.12% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 3,
"win_prob": 54.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.41,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -1.34% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 4,
"win_prob": 54.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.2,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -0.93% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 8 (利空做空) · Volume 信号",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 5,
"win_prob": 48.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.2,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -0.39% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "XLK",
"rank": 6,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.12,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -0.49% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
}
],
"advisory": true,
"swing": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"direction": "SHORT",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"duration": "Swing (days–weeks)",
"confidence": 59,
"entry": "Near 215.2 (swing zone)",
"entry_source": "swing_zone",
"entry_price": 215.18,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 214.54,
"high": 218.06,
"mid": 215.18,
"display": "$214.54–$218.06",
"source": "swing_pullback"
},
"stop": "223.8 (1.75xATR)",
"stop_source": "1.75xATR",
"stop_price": 223.81,
"target": "203.7 (T1 ~5.3%)",
"target_source": "2xATR_or_5pct",
"target_price": 203.68,
"targets": [
{
"price": 203.68,
"label": "T1",
"pct": 5.34
},
{
"price": 193.66,
"label": "T2",
"pct": 10.0
}
],
"expected_return_pct": 5.34,
"expected_move": "+5.34%",
"risk_reward": 1.33,
"win_prob": 54.0,
"final_score": 0.09,
"swing_quality": 5.699,
"atr": 5.7507,
"atr_source": "ATR14",
"level_formula": "stop=1.5–2×ATR or prior-week extreme; T1=max(5%, 2×ATR); T2=min(15%, max(10%, 3×ATR))",
"current_price": 214.54,
"why": [
"高流动性波段标的 NVDA",
"Prior day +0.0%",
"5D momentum -4.6%",
"RS vs QQQ -0.93%",
"News/8 catalyst hints",
"Swing score 5.7"
],
"why_chain": "高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -4.6% · RS vs QQQ -0.93%",
"invalidation": "Close beyond stop $223.81 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)",
"trade_summary_cn": "波段做空 NVDA：理想入场 $214.54–$218.06，止损 $223.81，目标 $203.68（约 +5.3%），持仓天数–数周",
"one_liner": "波段做空 NVDA：理想入场 $214.54–$218.06，止损 $223.81，目标 $203.68（约 +5.3%），持仓天数–数周",
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"advisory": true,
"label": "长线 · Swing Trade",
"separate_from_intraday": true
}
},
"edges": {
"macro_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "今日有重大催化剂（含地缘/突发）：Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy",
"catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy"
},
"index_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "SPY 盘前/开盘 +0.24%"
},
"sector_edge": {
"edge": "NO",
"why": "板块相对强度不足"
},
"stock_edge": {
"edge": "NO",
"why": "无单票 RS+新闻+量能共振"
},
"advisory": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议"
},
"trade_candidates": [
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"win_prob": 80.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 20.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 80.0,
"raw_total": 80.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 1.88,
"expected_high": 243.32,
"expected_low": 233.15,
"expected_close": 233.15,
"current_price": 237.63,
"upside_pct": 1.88,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.39,
"risk_reward": 0.79,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.79,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.27,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.79",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.27",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.79 · Risk:Reward 1:1.27",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.432,
"final_score": 0.75,
"trade_action": "Small",
"trade": "Small",
"gap_pct": -5.24,
"relative_strength": -5.08,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -3.74,
"relative_weakness_score": 7.32,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS弱于QQQ -5.08%",
"RS弱于SMH -3.74%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高"
],
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -5.08% · RS弱于SMH -3.74% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高",
"score": 8,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -5.08,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -3.74,
"relative_weakness_score": 7.32,
"gap_pct": -5.24,
"beta_proxy": 37.29,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 5.95,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(80%) × ER(1.9%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "ARM RS -5.1% vs MU -3.5%；ER 1.9% vs 1.3%；higher beta (37.3 vs 25.7)；relative weakness play",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 1,
"direction": "SHORT"
},
{
"symbol": "MU",
"win_prob": 80.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 20.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 80.0,
"raw_total": 80.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 1.26,
"expected_high": 966.78,
"expected_low": 927.42,
"expected_close": 927.42,
"current_price": 939.25,
"upside_pct": 1.26,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.93,
"risk_reward": 0.43,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.43,
"risk_reward_ratio": 2.33,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.43",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.33",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.43 · Risk:Reward 1:2.33",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.144,
"final_score": 0.5,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -3.91,
"relative_strength": -3.46,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -2.12,
"relative_weakness_score": 4.73,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS弱于QQQ -3.46%",
"RS弱于SMH -2.12%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高",
"期望R 0.14 < 0.20（EV门禁）"
],
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -3.46% · RS弱于SMH -2.12% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高",
"score": 5,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -3.46,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -2.12,
"relative_weakness_score": 4.73,
"gap_pct": -3.91,
"beta_proxy": 25.71,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 5.95,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(80%) × ER(1.3%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 2,
"direction": "SHORT"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"win_prob": 54.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": -12.0
}
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"期望R -0.24 < 0.20（EV门禁）"
],
"why": "板块内相对强势 +4.90% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 期望R -0.24 < 0.20（EV门禁）",
"score": 0,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 4.9,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 6.24,
"relative_weakness_score": -8.64,
"gap_pct": 4.73,
"beta_proxy": -34.0,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 5.95,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(48%) × ER(-1.4%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 19,
"direction": "SHORT"
}
]
},
"intraday": {
"s5": {
"driver_still_valid": true,
"action": "Hold"
},
"s6": {
"trade_valid": true,
"action": "Hold"
},
"s7": {
"actual_driver": "AI Chip Selloff",
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.712,
"bond": 0.104,
"oil": 0.0,
"macro": 0.135,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {
"AI Chip Selloff": 0.725
}
}
}
},
"trade_plan": {},
"actual": {},
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.712,
"bond": 0.104,
"oil": 0.0,
"macro": 0.135,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {
"AI Chip Selloff": 0.725
}
},
"labels": {
"actual_driver": "AI Chip Selloff",
"agent_driver": "Geopolitical Risk",
"agent_driver_type": "Political",
"corrected_driver_from_verify": null,
"driver_splits": {
"AI Chip Selloff": 0.7253263286236821
},
"hypothesis_correct": "部分对",
"scenario_primary": "A",
"scenario_actual": "B",
"scenario_correct": false,
"trade_recommendation": "ARM",
"trade_direction": "SHORT",
"primary_symbol": "ARM",
"predicted_return_pct": 2.04,
"prediction_error_pct": null
},
"surprise": "AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day",
"lesson": "AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量",
"playbook_refs": [
"Case-35"
],
"bayesian_drivers": {
"AI": 1.0,
"Bond": 0.0,
"Macro": 0.0,
"Oil": 0.0,
"Risk": 0.0
},
"data_gaps": []
}