Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 37
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★★☆ ARM SHORT ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 80.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 80.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 48.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLK Avoid 71.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Morning: ARM SHORT · READY

ARM SHORT · Ideal Entry Zone 237–239 · Live ER +1.89% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 80.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 80.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid

#1:ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    nuclear — Vistra Is the Quietest Big Winner of the AI Power Boom. Here's Why.

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    Treasury’s Bessent to Detail US Plan to Economically Isolate Iran

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — Vistra Is the Quietest Big Winner of the AI Power Boom. Here's Why.
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — 2 Energy Stocks Riding the Data Center Power Crunch
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Treasury’s Bessent to Detail US Plan to Economically Isolate Iran
  • commodity Oil Selloff 76 XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:No Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 710.9 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 710.9 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 710.9 (昨日低点) and 710.9 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
SHORT Swing 80.0% 2.04% Reward/Risk 3.26 Entry Zone 237–239 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$239.49 $233.15 RS弱于QQQ -5.08% · RS弱于SMH -3.74% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $239.49 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • MU · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -3.46% · RS弱于SMH -2.12% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高
  • SMH · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.34% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation
  • NVDA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.93% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 8 (利空做空) · Volume 信号
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.39% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation
  • XLK · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.49% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高
Bias Strong Bear ★☆☆☆☆
Best Trade ARM · SHORT · Stock · ER +2.04%
Direction SHORT Swing
Win Prob 80.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 237–239 Below 238.0 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $237.63 Dist +0.16% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +2.04%
Stop / Target $239.49 → $233.15
R:R Reward/Risk 3.26 · Risk:Reward 1:0.31
P&L +$324.95 / -$99.83
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 80%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS弱于QQQ -5.08% · RS弱于SMH -3.74% · Volume 信号

#1:ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength -5.08 vs 4.9
  2. Largest Expected Range 4.27 vs 4.19
  3. Highest Probability 80.0 vs 80.0
  4. Best Risk Reward 3.26 vs 1.6

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +20.0
  • Volume +4.0
  • Macro +6.0
  • Total 80.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$324.95
失败 Loss -$99.83
每股价差 Reward $4.85 / Risk $1.49 Reward/Risk 3.26 · Risk:Reward 1:0.31

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% ↓ Position 100.0% ↓ 1 unit(s) ↓ Max Loss $99.83

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $238.0 Confidence 89 vwap
  • ✓ VWAP $238.0 70%
  • ✓ Below Current $237.63 30%
Stop $239.49 Confidence 77 orb_high
  • ✓ ORB High $239.49 100%
Target $233.15 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • ✓ Expected Close $233.15 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • MU (#2)
    • ER 2.0% vs 1.3%
    • Score 0.75 vs 0.5
    • RS -5.1% vs -3.5%
    • R:R 3.26 vs 0.43
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • SMH (#3)
    • Win% 80 vs 54
    • ER 2.0% vs 0.4%
    • Score 0.75 vs 0.11
    • RS -5.1% vs -1.3%
    • R:R 3.26 vs 0.73
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • NVDA (#4)
    • Win% 80 vs 54
    • ER 2.0% vs 0.2%
    • Score 0.75 vs 0.09
    • RS -5.1% vs -0.9%
    • R:R 3.26 vs 1.6
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TQQQ (#5)
    • Win% 80 vs 48
    • ER 2.0% vs 0.2%
    • Score 0.75 vs 0.05
    • RS -5.1% vs -0.4%
    • R:R 3.26 vs 0.53
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • XLK (#6)
    • Win% 80 vs 71
    • ER 2.0% vs 0.1%
    • Score 0.75 vs 0.05
    • RS -5.1% vs -0.5%
    • R:R 3.26 vs 1.07
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.05 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.14%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -5

Today's Biggest Risk

Extended Gap on ARM

  • Extended Gap on ARM
  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw
  • VIX Spike
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Buy First Green Candle
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release
  • Don't Fight Volatility

Expected Value

EV $+240 (win +$325 @ 80.0% · loss -$100)

「做空 ARM:在 238.0 附近入场,目标 233.15,预期 +2.04%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $214.54–$218.06
Stop · Target $223.81 → $203.68 / T2 $193.66
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -4.6%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $223.81 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 NVDA:理想入场 $214.54–$218.06,止损 $223.81,目标 $203.68(约 +5.3%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-24-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Relative Weakness

Why vs #2:ARM RS -5.1% vs MU -3.5%;ER 1.9% vs 1.3%;higher beta (37.3 vs 25.7);relative weakness play

final = win_prob(80%) × ER(1.9%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS弱于QQQ -5.08%
  • RS弱于SMH -3.74%
  • Volume 信号
  • VIX 走高

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (5.43%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE -1.2% -6.63% ▼
UUP — — —
QQQ 5.43% +0.00% —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →