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Market Case · 2026-08-17

Day 32

Day 32
9/9 Steps

Regime · Hypothesis

R0 Regime
AI Expansion (82.0%)
Hypothesis
弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)
ID
H-2026-08-17-001

Labels · Attribution

真正 Driver
Macro
Hypothesis 结果
部分对
Scenario 预测
A
Scenario 实际
none
Scenario 命中
AI 贡献
2%
Bond
37%

Surprise · Lesson

Surprise:No major surprises vs typical driver mix

Lesson:AI Expansion 背景下 Macro 主导;关注 Regime vs Driver 分离

Evidence / Counter

Evidence

  • VIX=14.9 (low fear)
  • Breadth 71% (broad participation)

Counter

Step 快捷入口

原始 JSON
{
  "date": "2026-08-17",
  "features": {
    "dgs10": 4.63,
    "dgs2": null,
    "vix": 14.91,
    "vix_chg": 4.63,
    "qqq_chg": -0.34,
    "smh_chg": 0.79,
    "nvda_chg": -0.14,
    "spy_chg": 0.0,
    "oil_chg": 0.0,
    "dxy_chg": -0.2,
    "breadth_proxy": 0.0,
    "qqq_gap": 0.39,
    "news_headline_count": 32,
    "news_bearish_ratio": 0.0,
    "news_ai_mentions": 84,
    "news_macro_mentions": 9,
    "news_oil_mentions": 3,
    "news_risk_mentions": 0
  },
  "regime": {
    "label": "AI Expansion",
    "confidence": 0.82
  },
  "hypothesis": {
    "id": "H-2026-08-17-001",
    "statement": "弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)",
    "evidence": [
      "VIX=14.9 (low fear)",
      "Breadth 71% (broad participation)"
    ],
    "counter_evidence": [],
    "confidence": 0.89,
    "status": "待验证"
  },
  "morning": {
    "bias": "Bullish Bias",
    "total": 3,
    "driver_type": "Political",
    "daily_driver": "Geopolitical Risk",
    "best_opportunity": {
      "direction": "NO TRADE",
      "symbol": "—",
      "instrument": "—",
      "horizon": "—",
      "confidence": 45,
      "entry": "—",
      "stop": "—",
      "target": "—",
      "targets": [],
      "duration": "—",
      "why": [
        "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值"
      ],
      "why_chain": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
      "avoid": [],
      "one_liner": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
      "p16_gate": "No Trade",
      "threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
      "advisory": true
    },
    "best_trades": {
      "primary": null,
      "secondary": null,
      "watchlist": null,
      "index_trade": "NO TRADE",
      "p16_gate": "No Trade",
      "threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
      "stock_trades": [],
      "top_trades": [
        {
          "rank": 1,
          "symbol": "AMD",
          "direction": "LONG",
          "instrument": "Stock",
          "horizon": "Intraday",
          "confidence": 77,
          "confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
          "expected_move": "+1.38%",
          "expected_return_pct": 1.38,
          "win_prob": 77.0,
          "win_prob_breakdown": {
            "components": [
              {
                "factor": "Base",
                "key": "base",
                "points": 50.0
              },
              {
                "factor": "RS",
                "key": "rs",
                "points": 18.0
              },
              {
                "factor": "Catalyst",
                "key": "catalyst",
                "points": 5.0
              },
              {
                "factor": "Volume",
                "key": "volume",
                "points": 4.0
              }
            ],
            "total": 77.0,
            "raw_total": 77.0,
            "was_clamped": false
          },
          "risk_reward": 1.31,
          "final_score": 1.03,
          "trade_action": "Pass",
          "relative_strength": 6.77,
          "entry": "Above 524.0 (ORB高点)",
          "entry_source": "orb_high",
          "entry_price": 524.04,
          "entry_zone": {
            "low": 522.47,
            "high": 525.61,
            "mid": 524.04,
            "anchors": [
              {
                "source": "orb_high",
                "label": "ORB高点",
                "price": 524.04
              }
            ],
            "display": "Entry Zone 522–526",
            "entry_source": "orb_high",
            "tolerance_pct": 0.3
          },
          "stop": "518.5 (ORB低点)",
          "stop_source": "orb_low",
          "stop_price": 518.5,
          "target": "531.3 (预期收盘)",
          "target_source": "expected_close",
          "target_price": 531.27,
          "targets": [
            "531.3 (预期收盘)"
          ],
          "level_anchors": {
            "vwap": 520.4,
            "orb_high": 524.04,
            "orb_low": 518.5,
            "prev_high": 483.01,
            "prev_low": 483.01,
            "prior_close": 483.01,
            "orb_from_minute": true
          },
          "levels_valid": true,
          "why": [
            "RS vs QQQ +6.77%",
            "RS vs SMH +6.15%",
            "News 1",
            "Volume 信号",
            "Geometric upside 1.38% < soft 1.5%"
          ],
          "why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +6.77% · RS vs SMH +6.15% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
          "why_vs_runner_up": "AMD RS +6.8% vs MU +5.0%;ER 2.7% vs 2.0%;higher beta (20.9 vs 15.8);relative strength",
          "factor_breakdown": {
            "relative_strength_vs_qqq": 6.77,
            "relative_strength_vs_smh": 6.15,
            "relative_weakness_score": -10.46,
            "gap_pct": 7.41,
            "beta_proxy": 20.91,
            "volume_signal": true,
            "news_count": 1,
            "extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
            "vix_change_pct": 4.63,
            "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
          },
          "edge_type": "Sector Edge",
          "score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(77%) × ER(2.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
          "expected_high": 531.27,
          "expected_low": 503.48,
          "expected_close": 531.27,
          "current_price": 517.38,
          "upside_pct": 2.68,
          "downside_risk_pct": 2.68,
          "why_factors": [
            "RS vs QQQ +6.77%",
            "RS vs SMH +6.15%",
            "News 1",
            "Volume 信号",
            "Geometric upside 1.38% < soft 1.5%"
          ],
          "why_today": "RS vs QQQ +6.77% · RS vs SMH +6.15% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
          "gap_pct": 7.41,
          "rr_display": {
            "reward_risk_ratio": 1.31,
            "risk_reward_ratio": 0.76,
            "reward_per_share": 7.23,
            "risk_per_share": 5.54,
            "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.31",
            "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.76",
            "display": "Reward/Risk 1.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.76",
            "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
          },
          "catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk",
          "invalidation": "Close below stop $518.5 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
          "advisory": true,
          "level_reasons": {
            "entry": {
              "price": 524.04,
              "source": "orb_high",
              "confidence": 77,
              "reasons": [
                {
                  "source": "orb_high",
                  "label": "ORB High",
                  "price": 524.04,
                  "weight_pct": 100.0,
                  "matched": true,
                  "primary": true
                }
              ]
            },
            "stop": {
              "price": 518.5,
              "source": "orb_low",
              "confidence": 89,
              "reasons": [
                {
                  "source": "orb_low",
                  "label": "ORB Low",
                  "price": 518.5,
                  "weight_pct": 70.0,
                  "matched": true,
                  "primary": true
                },
                {
                  "source": "vwap",
                  "label": "VWAP",
                  "price": 520.4,
                  "weight_pct": 30.0,
                  "matched": true,
                  "primary": false
                }
              ]
            },
            "target": {
              "price": 531.27,
              "source": "expected_close",
              "confidence": 77,
              "reasons": [
                {
                  "source": "expected_close",
                  "label": "Expected Close",
                  "price": 531.27,
                  "weight_pct": 100.0,
                  "matched": true,
                  "primary": true
                }
              ]
            }
          },
          "return_calculation": "(531.27-524.04)/524.04=1.38%",
          "heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.68,
          "target_action": "卖出/获利",
          "trade_summary_cn": "做多 AMD:在 524.04 附近入场,目标 531.27,预期 +1.38%",
          "expected_r": 0.7787,
          "rr_below_hard_min": true,
          "trade_economics": {
            "account_size": 10000.0,
            "risk_pct": 1.0,
            "position_pct": 94.3,
            "shares": 18,
            "contracts": 0,
            "max_loss_usd": 99.72,
            "win_usd": 130.14,
            "loss_usd": 99.72,
            "expected_value_usd": 77.27,
            "risk_per_share": 5.54,
            "reward_per_share": 7.23,
            "rr_display": {
              "reward_risk_ratio": 1.31,
              "risk_reward_ratio": 0.76,
              "reward_per_share": 7.23,
              "risk_per_share": 5.54,
              "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.31",
              "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.76",
              "display": "Reward/Risk 1.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.76",
              "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
            },
            "size_label": "None",
            "display": "$10,000 → Win +$130 / Loss -$100"
          },
          "position_sizing": {
            "risk_pct": 1.0,
            "position_pct": 94.3,
            "contracts": 0,
            "shares": 18,
            "max_loss_usd": 99.72,
            "size_label": "None",
            "display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 94.3% → 18 unit(s) → Max Loss $99.72"
          },
          "why_wins_today": [
            {
              "rank": 1,
              "dimension": "relative_strength",
              "label": "Highest Relative Strength",
              "primary_value": 6.77,
              "runner_up_value": 5.05,
              "wins": true
            },
            {
              "rank": 2,
              "dimension": "expected_range",
              "label": "Largest Expected Range",
              "primary_value": 5.36,
              "runner_up_value": 4.94,
              "wins": true
            },
            {
              "rank": 3,
              "dimension": "win_prob",
              "label": "Highest Probability",
              "primary_value": 77.0,
              "runner_up_value": 77.0,
              "wins": true
            },
            {
              "rank": 4,
              "dimension": "risk_reward",
              "label": "Best Risk Reward",
              "primary_value": 1.31,
              "runner_up_value": 0.77,
              "wins": true
            }
          ],
          "why_not_alternatives": [
            {
              "symbol": "MU",
              "rank": 2,
              "reasons": [
                "ER 1.4% vs 2.0%",
                "Score 1.03 vs 0.77",
                "RS +6.8% vs +5.0%",
                "R:R 1.31 vs 0.68"
              ],
              "summary": "Why AMD over MU: ER 1.4% vs 2.0% · Score 1.03 vs 0.77 · RS +6.8% vs +5.0% · R:R 1.31 vs 0.68"
            },
            {
              "symbol": "ARM",
              "rank": 3,
              "reasons": [
                "Win% 77 vs 72",
                "ER 1.4% vs 0.8%",
                "Score 1.03 vs 0.28",
                "RS +6.8% vs +1.8%",
                "R:R 1.31 vs 0.42"
              ],
              "summary": "Why AMD over ARM: Win% 77 vs 72 · ER 1.4% vs 0.8% · Score 1.03 vs 0.28 · RS +6.8% vs +1.8% · R:R 1.31 vs 0.42"
            },
            {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "rank": 4,
              "reasons": [
                "Win% 77 vs 71",
                "ER 1.4% vs 0.3%",
                "Score 1.03 vs 0.1",
                "RS +6.8% vs +0.9%",
                "R:R 1.31 vs 0.62"
              ],
              "summary": "Why AMD over XLE: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 1.4% vs 0.3% · Score 1.03 vs 0.1 · RS +6.8% vs +0.9% · R:R 1.31 vs 0.62"
            },
            {
              "symbol": "TQQQ",
              "rank": 5,
              "reasons": [
                "Win% 77 vs 71",
                "ER 1.4% vs 0.2%",
                "Score 1.03 vs 0.08",
                "RS +6.8% vs +0.6%",
                "R:R 1.31 vs 0.36"
              ],
              "summary": "Why AMD over TQQQ: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 1.4% vs 0.2% · Score 1.03 vs 0.08 · RS +6.8% vs +0.6% · R:R 1.31 vs 0.36"
            },
            {
              "symbol": "SMH",
              "rank": 6,
              "reasons": [
                "Win% 77 vs 71",
                "ER 1.4% vs 0.2%",
                "Score 1.03 vs 0.07",
                "RS +6.8% vs +0.6%",
                "R:R 1.31 vs 0.43"
              ],
              "summary": "Why AMD over SMH: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 1.4% vs 0.2% · Score 1.03 vs 0.07 · RS +6.8% vs +0.6% · R:R 1.31 vs 0.43"
            }
          ],
          "rank_summary": "AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability",
          "win_prob_source": "rules",
          "calibration": {
            "calibrated_win_prob": 77.0,
            "sample_size": 0,
            "confidence_interval": null,
            "source": "rules_fallback",
            "match_quality": "insufficient",
            "win_prob_source": "rules",
            "disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
          },
          "ev_distribution": {
            "expected_value_usd": 77.27,
            "win_scenario_usd": 130.14,
            "loss_scenario_usd": 99.72,
            "win_prob_pct": 77.0,
            "display": "EV $+77 (win +$130 @ 77.0% · loss -$100)"
          },
          "entry_status": {
            "current_price": 517.38,
            "ideal_entry": 524.04,
            "distance_pct": -1.27,
            "remaining_er_pct": 2.68,
            "live_expected_return_pct": 2.68,
            "new_plan": null,
            "alternate_entry": null,
            "advisory": true,
            "advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
            "zone_low": 522.47,
            "zone_high": 525.61,
            "miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
            "status": "PREMARKET",
            "status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
            "action_hint": "Entry still valid"
          }
        },
        {
          "rank": 2,
          "symbol": "MU",
          "direction": "LONG",
          "instrument": "Stock",
          "horizon": "Intraday",
          "confidence": 77,
          "confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
          "expected_move": "+1.11%",
          "expected_return_pct": 1.11,
          "win_prob": 77.0,
          "win_prob_breakdown": {
            "components": [
              {
                "factor": "Base",
                "key": "base",
                "points": 50.0
              },
              {
                "factor": "RS",
                "key": "rs",
                "points": 18.0
              },
              {
                "factor": "Catalyst",
                "key": "catalyst",
                "points": 5.0
              },
              {
                "factor": "Volume",
                "key": "volume",
                "points": 4.0
              }
            ],
            "total": 77.0,
            "raw_total": 77.0,
            "was_clamped": false
          },
          "risk_reward": 0.54,
          "final_score": 0.77,
          "trade_action": "Pass",
          "relative_strength": 5.05,
          "entry": "Above 1009.9 (ORB高点)",
          "entry_source": "orb_high",
          "entry_price": 1009.86,
          "entry_zone": {
            "low": 1006.83,
            "high": 1012.89,
            "mid": 1009.86,
            "anchors": [
              {
                "source": "orb_high",
                "label": "ORB高点",
                "price": 1009.86
              }
            ],
            "display": "Entry Zone 1007–1013",
            "entry_source": "orb_high",
            "tolerance_pct": 0.3
          },
          "stop": "989.0 (ORB低点)",
          "stop_source": "orb_low",
          "stop_price": 989.01,
          "target": "1021.1 (预期收盘)",
          "target_source": "expected_close",
          "target_price": 1021.1,
          "targets": [
            "1021.1 (预期收盘)"
          ],
          "level_anchors": {
            "vwap": 1003.8,
            "orb_high": 1009.86,
            "orb_low": 989.01,
            "prev_high": 949.83,
            "prev_low": 949.83,
            "prior_close": 949.83,
            "orb_from_minute": true
          },
          "levels_valid": true,
          "why": [
            "RS vs QQQ +5.05%",
            "RS vs SMH +4.43%",
            "News 1",
            "Volume 信号",
            "Geometric upside 1.11% < soft 1.5%"
          ],
          "why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +5.05% · RS vs SMH +4.43% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
          "why_vs_runner_up": "—",
          "factor_breakdown": {
            "relative_strength_vs_qqq": 5.05,
            "relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.43,
            "relative_weakness_score": -7.71,
            "gap_pct": 5.81,
            "beta_proxy": 15.85,
            "volume_signal": true,
            "news_count": 1,
            "extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
            "vix_change_pct": 4.63,
            "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
          },
          "edge_type": "Sector Edge",
          "score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(77%) × ER(2.0%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
          "expected_high": 1021.1,
          "expected_low": 971.66,
          "expected_close": 1021.1,
          "current_price": 1001.01,
          "upside_pct": 2.01,
          "downside_risk_pct": 2.93,
          "why_factors": [
            "RS vs QQQ +5.05%",
            "RS vs SMH +4.43%",
            "News 1",
            "Volume 信号",
            "Geometric upside 1.11% < soft 1.5%"
          ],
          "why_today": "RS vs QQQ +5.05% · RS vs SMH +4.43% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
          "gap_pct": 5.81,
          "rr_display": {
            "reward_risk_ratio": 0.54,
            "risk_reward_ratio": 1.85,
            "reward_per_share": 11.24,
            "risk_per_share": 20.85,
            "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.54",
            "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.85",
            "display": "Reward/Risk 0.54 · Risk:Reward 1:1.85",
            "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
          },
          "catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk",
          "invalidation": "Close below stop $989.01 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
          "advisory": true,
          "level_reasons": {
            "entry": {
              "price": 1009.86,
              "source": "orb_high",
              "confidence": 77,
              "reasons": [
                {
                  "source": "orb_high",
                  "label": "ORB High",
                  "price": 1009.86,
                  "weight_pct": 100.0,
                  "matched": true,
                  "primary": true
                }
              ]
            },
            "stop": {
              "price": 989.01,
              "source": "orb_low",
              "confidence": 77,
              "reasons": [
                {
                  "source": "orb_low",
                  "label": "ORB Low",
                  "price": 989.01,
                  "weight_pct": 100.0,
                  "matched": true,
                  "primary": true
                }
              ]
            },
            "target": {
              "price": 1021.1,
              "source": "expected_close",
              "confidence": 77,
              "reasons": [
                {
                  "source": "expected_close",
                  "label": "Expected Close",
                  "price": 1021.1,
                  "weight_pct": 100.0,
                  "matched": true,
                  "primary": true
                }
              ]
            }
          },
          "return_calculation": "(1021.1-1009.86)/1009.86=1.11%",
          "heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.01,
          "target_action": "卖出/获利",
          "trade_summary_cn": "做多 MU:在 1009.86 附近入场,目标 1021.1,预期 +1.11%",
          "expected_r": 0.1858,
          "rr_below_hard_min": true,
          "trade_economics": {
            "account_size": 10000.0,
            "risk_pct": 1.0,
            "position_pct": 40.4,
            "shares": 4,
            "contracts": 0,
            "max_loss_usd": 83.4,
            "win_usd": 44.96,
            "loss_usd": 83.4,
            "expected_value_usd": 15.44,
            "risk_per_share": 20.85,
            "reward_per_share": 11.24,
            "rr_display": {
              "reward_risk_ratio": 0.54,
              "risk_reward_ratio": 1.85,
              "reward_per_share": 11.24,
              "risk_per_share": 20.85,
              "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.54",
              "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.85",
              "display": "Reward/Risk 0.54 · Risk:Reward 1:1.85",
              "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
            },
            "size_label": "None",
            "display": "$10,000 → Win +$45 / Loss -$83"
          },
          "position_sizing": {
            "risk_pct": 1.0,
            "position_pct": 40.4,
            "contracts": 0,
            "shares": 4,
            "max_loss_usd": 83.4,
            "size_label": "None",
            "display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 40.4% → 4 unit(s) → Max Loss $83.4"
          },
          "why_wins_today": [
            {
              "rank": 1,
              "dimension": "win_prob",
              "label": "Highest Probability",
              "primary_value": 77.0,
              "runner_up_value": 77.0,
              "wins": true
            }
          ],
          "why_not_alternatives": [
            {
              "symbol": "AMD",
              "rank": 1,
              "reasons": [
                "ER 1.1% vs 2.7%",
                "Score 0.77 vs 1.03",
                "RS +5.0% vs +6.8%"
              ],
              "summary": "Why MU over AMD: ER 1.1% vs 2.7% · Score 0.77 vs 1.03 · RS +5.0% vs +6.8%"
            },
            {
              "symbol": "ARM",
              "rank": 3,
              "reasons": [
                "Win% 77 vs 72",
                "ER 1.1% vs 0.8%",
                "Score 0.77 vs 0.28",
                "RS +5.0% vs +1.8%",
                "R:R 0.54 vs 0.42"
              ],
              "summary": "Why MU over ARM: Win% 77 vs 72 · ER 1.1% vs 0.8% · Score 0.77 vs 0.28 · RS +5.0% vs +1.8% · R:R 0.54 vs 0.42"
            },
            {
              "symbol": "XLE",
              "rank": 4,
              "reasons": [
                "Win% 77 vs 71",
                "ER 1.1% vs 0.3%",
                "Score 0.77 vs 0.1",
                "RS +5.0% vs +0.9%"
              ],
              "summary": "Why MU over XLE: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 1.1% vs 0.3% · Score 0.77 vs 0.1 · RS +5.0% vs +0.9%"
            },
            {
              "symbol": "TQQQ",
              "rank": 5,
              "reasons": [
                "Win% 77 vs 71",
                "ER 1.1% vs 0.2%",
                "Score 0.77 vs 0.08",
                "RS +5.0% vs +0.6%",
                "R:R 0.54 vs 0.36"
              ],
              "summary": "Why MU over TQQQ: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 1.1% vs 0.2% · Score 0.77 vs 0.08 · RS +5.0% vs +0.6% · R:R 0.54 vs 0.36"
            },
            {
              "symbol": "SMH",
              "rank": 6,
              "reasons": [
                "Win% 77 vs 71",
                "ER 1.1% vs 0.2%",
                "Score 0.77 vs 0.07",
                "RS +5.0% vs +0.6%",
                "R:R 0.54 vs 0.43"
              ],
              "summary": "Why MU over SMH: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 1.1% vs 0.2% · Score 0.77 vs 0.07 · RS +5.0% vs +0.6% · R:R 0.54 vs 0.43"
            }
          ],
          "win_prob_source": "rules",
          "calibration": {
            "calibrated_win_prob": 77.0,
            "sample_size": 0,
            "confidence_interval": null,
            "source": "rules_fallback",
            "match_quality": "insufficient",
            "win_prob_source": "rules",
            "disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
          },
          "ev_distribution": {
            "expected_value_usd": 15.44,
            "win_scenario_usd": 44.96,
            "loss_scenario_usd": 83.4,
            "win_prob_pct": 77.0,
            "display": "EV $+15 (win +$45 @ 77.0% · loss -$83)"
          },
          "entry_status": {
            "current_price": 1001.01,
            "ideal_entry": 1009.86,
            "distance_pct": -0.88,
            "remaining_er_pct": 2.01,
            "live_expected_return_pct": 2.01,
            "new_plan": null,
            "alternate_entry": null,
            "advisory": true,
            "advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
            "zone_low": 1006.83,
            "zone_high": 1012.89,
            "miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
            "status": "PREMARKET",
            "status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
            "action_hint": "Entry still valid"
          }
        }
      ],
      "watchlist_items": [
        {
          "symbol": "ARM",
          "rank": 3,
          "win_prob": 72.0,
          "expected_return_pct": 0.77,
          "trade_action": "Pass",
          "why": "RS vs QQQ +1.80% · RS vs SMH +1.18% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
          "note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
        },
        {
          "symbol": "XLE",
          "rank": 4,
          "win_prob": 71.0,
          "expected_return_pct": 0.27,
          "trade_action": "Pass",
          "why": "RS vs QQQ +0.86% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)",
          "note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
        },
        {
          "symbol": "TQQQ",
          "rank": 5,
          "win_prob": 71.0,
          "expected_return_pct": 0.22,
          "trade_action": "Pass",
          "why": "RS vs QQQ +0.61% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.03 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
          "note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
        },
        {
          "symbol": "SMH",
          "rank": 6,
          "win_prob": 71.0,
          "expected_return_pct": 0.2,
          "trade_action": "Pass",
          "why": "RS vs QQQ +0.62% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
          "note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
        },
        {
          "symbol": "TSLA",
          "rank": 7,
          "win_prob": 59.0,
          "expected_return_pct": 0.1,
          "trade_action": "Pass",
          "why": "Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.04 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
          "note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
        }
      ],
      "advisory": true,
      "swing": {
        "symbol": "META",
        "direction": "SHORT",
        "instrument": "Stock",
        "horizon": "Swing",
        "duration": "Swing (days–weeks)",
        "confidence": 59,
        "entry": "Near 590.9 (swing zone)",
        "entry_source": "swing_zone",
        "entry_price": 590.92,
        "entry_zone": {
          "low": 589.15,
          "high": 601.7,
          "mid": 590.92,
          "display": "$589.15–$601.70",
          "source": "swing_pullback"
        },
        "stop": "623.3 (1.75xATR)",
        "stop_source": "1.75xATR",
        "stop_price": 623.27,
        "target": "547.8 (T1 ~7.3%)",
        "target_source": "2xATR_or_5pct",
        "target_price": 547.79,
        "targets": [
          {
            "price": 547.79,
            "label": "T1",
            "pct": 7.3
          },
          {
            "price": 526.23,
            "label": "T2",
            "pct": 10.95
          }
        ],
        "expected_return_pct": 7.3,
        "expected_move": "+7.30%",
        "risk_reward": 1.33,
        "win_prob": 54.0,
        "final_score": 0.0,
        "swing_quality": 4.687,
        "atr": 21.5643,
        "atr_source": "ATR14",
        "level_formula": "stop=1.5–2×ATR or prior-week extreme; T1=max(5%, 2×ATR); T2=min(15%, max(10%, 3×ATR))",
        "current_price": 589.15,
        "why": [
          "高流动性波段标的 META",
          "Prior day +0.0%",
          "5D momentum -0.4%",
          "RS vs QQQ -1.32%",
          "News/2 catalyst hints",
          "Swing score 4.7"
        ],
        "why_chain": "高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -0.4% · RS vs QQQ -1.32%",
        "invalidation": "Close beyond stop $623.27 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)",
        "trade_summary_cn": "波段做空 META:理想入场 $589.15–$601.70,止损 $623.27,目标 $547.79(约 +7.3%),持仓天数–数周",
        "one_liner": "波段做空 META:理想入场 $589.15–$601.70,止损 $623.27,目标 $547.79(约 +7.3%),持仓天数–数周",
        "edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
        "advisory": true,
        "label": "长线 · Swing Trade",
        "separate_from_intraday": true
      }
    },
    "edges": {
      "macro_edge": {
        "edge": "YES",
        "why": "今日有重大催化剂(含地缘/突发):Geopolitical Risk、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy",
        "catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy"
      },
      "index_edge": {
        "edge": "YES",
        "why": "QQQ 盘前/开盘 +0.35%"
      },
      "sector_edge": {
        "edge": "YES",
        "why": "SMH 领先 QQQ +0.56%",
        "sector": "Semiconductor"
      },
      "stock_edge": {
        "edge": "NO",
        "why": "无单票 RS+新闻+量能共振"
      },
      "advisory": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议"
    },
    "trade_candidates": [
      {
        "symbol": "AMD",
        "win_prob": 77.0,
        "win_prob_breakdown": {
          "components": [
            {
              "factor": "Base",
              "key": "base",
              "points": 50.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "RS",
              "key": "rs",
              "points": 18.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Catalyst",
              "key": "catalyst",
              "points": 5.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Volume",
              "key": "volume",
              "points": 4.0
            }
          ],
          "total": 77.0,
          "raw_total": 77.0,
          "was_clamped": false
        },
        "expected_return_pct": 2.68,
        "expected_high": 531.27,
        "expected_low": 503.48,
        "expected_close": 531.27,
        "current_price": 517.38,
        "upside_pct": 2.68,
        "downside_risk_pct": 2.68,
        "risk_reward": 1.0,
        "rr_display": {
          "reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
          "risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
          "reward_per_share": null,
          "risk_per_share": null,
          "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
          "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
          "display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
          "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
        },
        "expected_r": 0.54,
        "final_score": 1.03,
        "trade_action": "Pass",
        "trade": "Pass",
        "gap_pct": 7.41,
        "relative_strength": 6.77,
        "relative_strength_vs_smh": 6.15,
        "relative_weakness_score": -10.46,
        "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
        "why_factors": [
          "RS vs QQQ +6.77%",
          "RS vs SMH +6.15%",
          "News 1",
          "Volume 信号",
          "Geometric upside 1.38% < soft 1.5%"
        ],
        "why": "RS vs QQQ +6.77% · RS vs SMH +6.15% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
        "score": 10,
        "news_count": 1,
        "factor_breakdown": {
          "relative_strength_vs_qqq": 6.77,
          "relative_strength_vs_smh": 6.15,
          "relative_weakness_score": -10.46,
          "gap_pct": 7.41,
          "beta_proxy": 20.91,
          "volume_signal": true,
          "news_count": 1,
          "extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
          "vix_change_pct": 4.63,
          "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
        },
        "edge_type": "Sector Edge",
        "score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(77%) × ER(2.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
        "rr_weight": 0.5,
        "why_vs_runner_up": "AMD RS +6.8% vs MU +5.0%;ER 2.7% vs 2.0%;higher beta (20.9 vs 15.8);relative strength",
        "advisory": true,
        "rank": 1,
        "direction": "LONG"
      },
      {
        "symbol": "MU",
        "win_prob": 77.0,
        "win_prob_breakdown": {
          "components": [
            {
              "factor": "Base",
              "key": "base",
              "points": 50.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "RS",
              "key": "rs",
              "points": 18.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Catalyst",
              "key": "catalyst",
              "points": 5.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Volume",
              "key": "volume",
              "points": 4.0
            }
          ],
          "total": 77.0,
          "raw_total": 77.0,
          "was_clamped": false
        },
        "expected_return_pct": 2.01,
        "expected_high": 1021.1,
        "expected_low": 971.66,
        "expected_close": 1021.1,
        "current_price": 1001.01,
        "upside_pct": 2.01,
        "downside_risk_pct": 2.93,
        "risk_reward": 0.68,
        "rr_display": {
          "reward_risk_ratio": 0.68,
          "risk_reward_ratio": 1.47,
          "reward_per_share": null,
          "risk_per_share": null,
          "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.68",
          "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.47",
          "display": "Reward/Risk 0.68 · Risk:Reward 1:1.47",
          "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
        },
        "expected_r": 0.2936,
        "final_score": 0.77,
        "trade_action": "Pass",
        "trade": "Pass",
        "gap_pct": 5.81,
        "relative_strength": 5.05,
        "relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.43,
        "relative_weakness_score": -7.71,
        "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
        "why_factors": [
          "RS vs QQQ +5.05%",
          "RS vs SMH +4.43%",
          "News 1",
          "Volume 信号",
          "Geometric upside 1.11% < soft 1.5%"
        ],
        "why": "RS vs QQQ +5.05% · RS vs SMH +4.43% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
        "score": 8,
        "news_count": 1,
        "factor_breakdown": {
          "relative_strength_vs_qqq": 5.05,
          "relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.43,
          "relative_weakness_score": -7.71,
          "gap_pct": 5.81,
          "beta_proxy": 15.85,
          "volume_signal": true,
          "news_count": 1,
          "extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
          "vix_change_pct": 4.63,
          "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
        },
        "edge_type": "Sector Edge",
        "score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(77%) × ER(2.0%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
        "rr_weight": 0.5,
        "why_vs_runner_up": "—",
        "advisory": true,
        "rank": 2,
        "direction": "LONG"
      },
      {
        "symbol": "ARM",
        "win_prob": 72.0,
        "win_prob_breakdown": {
          "components": [
            {
              "factor": "Base",
              "key": "base",
              "points": 50.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "RS",
              "key": "rs",
              "points": 18.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Volume",
              "key": "volume",
              "points": 4.0
            }
          ],
          "total": 72.0,
          "raw_total": 72.0,
          "was_clamped": false
        },
        "expected_return_pct": 0.77,
        "expected_high": 286.79,
        "expected_low": 279.44,
        "expected_close": 286.79,
        "current_price": 284.61,
        "upside_pct": 0.77,
        "downside_risk_pct": 1.82,
        "risk_reward": 0.42,
        "rr_display": {
          "reward_risk_ratio": 0.42,
          "risk_reward_ratio": 2.38,
          "reward_per_share": null,
          "risk_per_share": null,
          "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.42",
          "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.38",
          "display": "Reward/Risk 0.42 · Risk:Reward 1:2.38",
          "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
        },
        "expected_r": 0.0224,
        "final_score": 0.28,
        "trade_action": "Pass",
        "trade": "Pass",
        "gap_pct": 3.32,
        "relative_strength": 1.8,
        "relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.18,
        "relative_weakness_score": -2.51,
        "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
        "why_factors": [
          "RS vs QQQ +1.80%",
          "RS vs SMH +1.18%",
          "Volume 信号",
          "期望R 0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)"
        ],
        "why": "RS vs QQQ +1.80% · RS vs SMH +1.18% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
        "score": 3,
        "news_count": 0,
        "factor_breakdown": {
          "relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.8,
          "relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.18,
          "relative_weakness_score": -2.51,
          "gap_pct": 3.32,
          "beta_proxy": 6.29,
          "volume_signal": true,
          "news_count": 0,
          "extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
          "vix_change_pct": 4.63,
          "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
        },
        "edge_type": "Sector Edge",
        "score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(72%) × ER(0.8%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
        "rr_weight": 0.5,
        "why_vs_runner_up": "—",
        "advisory": true,
        "rank": 3,
        "direction": "LONG"
      },
      {
        "symbol": "XLE",
        "win_prob": 71.0,
        "win_prob_breakdown": {
          "components": [
            {
              "factor": "Base",
              "key": "base",
              "points": 50.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "RS",
              "key": "rs",
              "points": 12.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Gap",
              "key": "gap",
              "points": 5.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Volume",
              "key": "volume",
              "points": 4.0
            }
          ],
          "total": 71.0,
          "raw_total": 71.0,
          "was_clamped": false
        },
        "expected_return_pct": 0.27,
        "expected_high": 62.1,
        "expected_low": 61.3,
        "expected_close": 61.96,
        "current_price": 61.79,
        "upside_pct": 0.5,
        "downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
        "risk_reward": 0.62,
        "rr_display": {
          "reward_risk_ratio": 0.62,
          "risk_reward_ratio": 1.61,
          "reward_per_share": null,
          "risk_per_share": null,
          "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.62",
          "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
          "display": "Reward/Risk 0.62 · Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
          "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
        },
        "expected_r": 0.1502,
        "final_score": 0.1,
        "trade_action": "Pass",
        "trade": "Pass",
        "gap_pct": 1.2,
        "relative_strength": 0.86,
        "relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.24,
        "relative_weakness_score": -1.0,
        "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
        "why_factors": [
          "RS vs QQQ +0.86%",
          "Gap 未过度延伸",
          "Volume 信号",
          "几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)"
        ],
        "why": "RS vs QQQ +0.86% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)",
        "score": 1,
        "news_count": 0,
        "factor_breakdown": {
          "relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.86,
          "relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.24,
          "relative_weakness_score": -1.0,
          "gap_pct": 1.2,
          "beta_proxy": 3.53,
          "volume_signal": true,
          "news_count": 0,
          "extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
          "vix_change_pct": 4.63,
          "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
        },
        "edge_type": "Relative Strength",
        "score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(71%) × ER(0.3%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
        "rr_weight": 0.5,
        "why_vs_runner_up": "—",
        "advisory": true,
        "rank": 4,
        "direction": "LONG"
      },
      {
        "symbol": "TQQQ",
        "win_prob": 71.0,
        "win_prob_breakdown": {
          "components": [
            {
              "factor": "Base",
              "key": "base",
              "points": 50.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "RS",
              "key": "rs",
              "points": 12.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Gap",
              "key": "gap",
              "points": 5.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Volume",
              "key": "volume",
              "points": 4.0
            }
          ],
          "total": 71.0,
          "raw_total": 71.0,
          "was_clamped": false
        },
        "expected_return_pct": 0.22,
        "expected_high": 78.27,
        "expected_low": 76.79,
        "expected_close": 78.05,
        "current_price": 77.88,
        "upside_pct": 0.5,
        "downside_risk_pct": 1.4,
        "risk_reward": 0.36,
        "rr_display": {
          "reward_risk_ratio": 0.36,
          "risk_reward_ratio": 2.78,
          "reward_per_share": null,
          "risk_per_share": null,
          "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.36",
          "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.78",
          "display": "Reward/Risk 0.36 · Risk:Reward 1:2.78",
          "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
        },
        "expected_r": -0.0344,
        "final_score": 0.08,
        "trade_action": "Pass",
        "trade": "Pass",
        "gap_pct": 1.19,
        "relative_strength": 0.61,
        "relative_strength_vs_smh": -0.01,
        "relative_weakness_score": -0.6,
        "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
        "why_factors": [
          "RS vs QQQ +0.61%",
          "Gap 未过度延伸",
          "Volume 信号",
          "期望R -0.03 < 0.15(EV门禁)"
        ],
        "why": "RS vs QQQ +0.61% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.03 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
        "score": 1,
        "news_count": 0,
        "factor_breakdown": {
          "relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.61,
          "relative_strength_vs_smh": -0.01,
          "relative_weakness_score": -0.6,
          "gap_pct": 1.19,
          "beta_proxy": 2.79,
          "volume_signal": true,
          "news_count": 0,
          "extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
          "vix_change_pct": 4.63,
          "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
        },
        "edge_type": "Relative Strength",
        "score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(71%) × ER(0.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
        "rr_weight": 0.5,
        "why_vs_runner_up": "—",
        "advisory": true,
        "rank": 5,
        "direction": "LONG"
      },
      {
        "symbol": "SMH",
        "win_prob": 71.0,
        "win_prob_breakdown": {
          "components": [
            {
              "factor": "Base",
              "key": "base",
              "points": 50.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "RS",
              "key": "rs",
              "points": 12.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Gap",
              "key": "gap",
              "points": 5.0
            },
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        "downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
        "risk_reward": 0.62,
        "rr_display": {
          "reward_risk_ratio": 0.62,
          "risk_reward_ratio": 1.61,
          "reward_per_share": null,
          "risk_per_share": null,
          "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.62",
          "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
          "display": "Reward/Risk 0.62 · Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
          "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
        },
        "expected_r": -0.0442,
        "final_score": 0.0,
        "trade_action": "Pass",
        "trade": "Pass",
        "gap_pct": -0.08,
        "relative_strength": -0.43,
        "relative_strength_vs_smh": -1.05,
        "relative_weakness_score": 1.06,
        "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
        "why_factors": [
          "Gap 未过度延伸",
          "Volume 信号",
          "期望R -0.04 < 0.15(EV门禁)"
        ],
        "why": "Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.04 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
        "score": 0,
        "news_count": 0,
        "factor_breakdown": {
          "relative_strength_vs_qqq": -0.43,
          "relative_strength_vs_smh": -1.05,
          "relative_weakness_score": 1.06,
          "gap_pct": -0.08,
          "beta_proxy": -0.26,
          "volume_signal": true,
          "news_count": 0,
          "extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
          "vix_change_pct": 4.63,
          "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
        },
        "edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
        "score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(59%) × ER(-0.1%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
        "rr_weight": 0.5,
        "why_vs_runner_up": "—",
        "advisory": true,
        "rank": 14,
        "direction": "LONG"
      },
      {
        "symbol": "XLF",
        "win_prob": 49.0,
        "win_prob_breakdown": {
          "components": [
            {
              "factor": "Base",
              "key": "base",
              "points": 50.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "RS",
              "key": "rs",
              "points": -10.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Gap",
              "key": "gap",
              "points": 5.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Volume",
              "key": "volume",
              "points": 4.0
            }
          ],
          "total": 49.0,
          "raw_total": 49.0,
          "was_clamped": false
        },
        "expected_return_pct": -0.17,
        "expected_high": 58.29,
        "expected_low": 57.54,
        "expected_close": 57.9,
        "current_price": 58.0,
        "upside_pct": 0.5,
        "downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
        "risk_reward": 0.62,
        "rr_display": {
          "reward_risk_ratio": 0.62,
          "risk_reward_ratio": 1.61,
          "reward_per_share": null,
          "risk_per_share": null,
          "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.62",
          "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
          "display": "Reward/Risk 0.62 · Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
          "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
        },
        "expected_r": -0.2062,
        "final_score": 0.0,
        "trade_action": "Pass",
        "trade": "Pass",
        "gap_pct": -0.17,
        "relative_strength": -0.79,
        "relative_strength_vs_smh": -1.41,
        "relative_weakness_score": 1.64,
        "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
        "why_factors": [
          "RS 弱于 QQQ -0.79%",
          "Gap 未过度延伸",
          "Volume 信号",
          "期望R -0.21 < 0.15(EV门禁)"
        ],
        "why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -0.79% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.21 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
        "score": 0,
        "news_count": 0,
        "factor_breakdown": {
          "relative_strength_vs_qqq": -0.79,
          "relative_strength_vs_smh": -1.41,
          "relative_weakness_score": 1.64,
          "gap_pct": -0.17,
          "beta_proxy": -1.32,
          "volume_signal": true,
          "news_count": 0,
          "extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
          "vix_change_pct": 4.63,
          "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
        },
        "edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
        "score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(49%) × ER(-0.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
        "rr_weight": 0.5,
        "why_vs_runner_up": "—",
        "advisory": true,
        "rank": 15,
        "direction": "LONG"
      },
      {
        "symbol": "DIA",
        "win_prob": 54.0,
        "win_prob_breakdown": {
          "components": [
            {
              "factor": "Base",
              "key": "base",
              "points": 50.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "RS",
              "key": "rs",
              "points": -10.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Gap",
              "key": "gap",
              "points": 5.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Catalyst",
              "key": "catalyst",
              "points": 5.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Volume",
              "key": "volume",
              "points": 4.0
            }
          ],
          "total": 54.0,
          "raw_total": 54.0,
          "was_clamped": false
        },
        "expected_return_pct": -0.17,
        "expected_high": 538.39,
        "expected_low": 531.42,
        "expected_close": 534.78,
        "current_price": 535.71,
        "upside_pct": 0.5,
        "downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
        "risk_reward": 0.62,
        "rr_display": {
          "reward_risk_ratio": 0.62,
          "risk_reward_ratio": 1.61,
          "reward_per_share": null,
          "risk_per_share": null,
          "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.62",
          "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
          "display": "Reward/Risk 0.62 · Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
          "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
        },
        "expected_r": -0.1252,
        "final_score": 0.0,
        "trade_action": "Pass",
        "trade": "Pass",
        "gap_pct": -0.29,
        "relative_strength": -0.75,
        "relative_strength_vs_smh": -1.37,
        "relative_weakness_score": 1.57,
        "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
        "why_factors": [
          "RS 弱于 QQQ -0.75%",
          "Gap 未过度延伸",
          "News 3",
          "Volume 信号",
          "期望R -0.13 < 0.15(EV门禁)"
        ],
        "why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -0.75% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 3 · Volume 信号",
        "score": 0,
        "news_count": 3,
        "factor_breakdown": {
          "relative_strength_vs_qqq": -0.75,
          "relative_strength_vs_smh": -1.37,
          "relative_weakness_score": 1.57,
          "gap_pct": -0.29,
          "beta_proxy": -1.21,
          "volume_signal": true,
          "news_count": 3,
          "extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
          "vix_change_pct": 4.63,
          "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
        },
        "edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
        "score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(-0.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
        "rr_weight": 0.5,
        "why_vs_runner_up": "—",
        "advisory": true,
        "rank": 16,
        "direction": "LONG"
      },
      {
        "symbol": "MSFT",
        "win_prob": 54.0,
        "win_prob_breakdown": {
          "components": [
            {
              "factor": "Base",
              "key": "base",
              "points": 50.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "RS",
              "key": "rs",
              "points": -10.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Gap",
              "key": "gap",
              "points": 5.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Catalyst",
              "key": "catalyst",
              "points": 5.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Volume",
              "key": "volume",
              "points": 4.0
            }
          ],
          "total": 54.0,
          "raw_total": 54.0,
          "was_clamped": false
        },
        "expected_return_pct": -0.31,
        "expected_high": 495.4,
        "expected_low": 488.41,
        "expected_close": 490.83,
        "current_price": 492.35,
        "upside_pct": 0.62,
        "downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
        "risk_reward": 0.77,
        "rr_display": {
          "reward_risk_ratio": 0.77,
          "risk_reward_ratio": 1.3,
          "reward_per_share": null,
          "risk_per_share": null,
          "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.77",
          "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.30",
          "display": "Reward/Risk 0.77 · Risk:Reward 1:1.30",
          "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
        },
        "expected_r": -0.0442,
        "final_score": 0.0,
        "trade_action": "Pass",
        "trade": "Pass",
        "gap_pct": -0.74,
        "relative_strength": -1.25,
        "relative_strength_vs_smh": -1.87,
        "relative_weakness_score": 2.37,
        "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
        "why_factors": [
          "RS 弱于 QQQ -1.25%",
          "Gap 未过度延伸",
          "News 6",
          "Volume 信号",
          "期望R -0.04 < 0.15(EV门禁)"
        ],
        "why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -1.25% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 6 · Volume 信号",
        "score": 0,
        "news_count": 6,
        "factor_breakdown": {
          "relative_strength_vs_qqq": -1.25,
          "relative_strength_vs_smh": -1.87,
          "relative_weakness_score": 2.37,
          "gap_pct": -0.74,
          "beta_proxy": -2.68,
          "volume_signal": true,
          "news_count": 6,
          "extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
          "vix_change_pct": 4.63,
          "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
        },
        "edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
        "score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(-0.3%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
        "rr_weight": 0.5,
        "why_vs_runner_up": "—",
        "advisory": true,
        "rank": 17,
        "direction": "LONG"
      },
      {
        "symbol": "META",
        "win_prob": 54.0,
        "win_prob_breakdown": {
          "components": [
            {
              "factor": "Base",
              "key": "base",
              "points": 50.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "RS",
              "key": "rs",
              "points": -10.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Gap",
              "key": "gap",
              "points": 5.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Catalyst",
              "key": "catalyst",
              "points": 5.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Volume",
              "key": "volume",
              "points": 4.0
            }
          ],
          "total": 54.0,
          "raw_total": 54.0,
          "was_clamped": false
        },
        "expected_return_pct": -0.33,
        "expected_high": 592.1,
        "expected_low": 584.44,
        "expected_close": 587.22,
        "current_price": 589.15,
        "upside_pct": 0.5,
        "downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
        "risk_reward": 0.62,
        "rr_display": {
          "reward_risk_ratio": 0.62,
          "risk_reward_ratio": 1.61,
          "reward_per_share": null,
          "risk_per_share": null,
          "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.62",
          "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
          "display": "Reward/Risk 0.62 · Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
          "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
        },
        "expected_r": -0.1252,
        "final_score": 0.0,
        "trade_action": "Pass",
        "trade": "Pass",
        "gap_pct": -0.79,
        "relative_strength": -1.32,
        "relative_strength_vs_smh": -1.94,
        "relative_weakness_score": 2.48,
        "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
        "why_factors": [
          "RS 弱于 QQQ -1.32%",
          "Gap 未过度延伸",
          "News 2",
          "Volume 信号",
          "期望R -0.13 < 0.15(EV门禁)"
        ],
        "why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -1.32% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 2 · Volume 信号",
        "score": 0,
        "news_count": 2,
        "factor_breakdown": {
          "relative_strength_vs_qqq": -1.32,
          "relative_strength_vs_smh": -1.94,
          "relative_weakness_score": 2.48,
          "gap_pct": -0.79,
          "beta_proxy": -2.88,
          "volume_signal": true,
          "news_count": 2,
          "extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
          "vix_change_pct": 4.63,
          "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
        },
        "edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
        "score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(-0.3%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
        "rr_weight": 0.5,
        "why_vs_runner_up": "—",
        "advisory": true,
        "rank": 18,
        "direction": "LONG"
      },
      {
        "symbol": "AVGO",
        "win_prob": 38.0,
        "win_prob_breakdown": {
          "components": [
            {
              "factor": "Base",
              "key": "base",
              "points": 50.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "RS",
              "key": "rs",
              "points": -16.0
            },
            {
              "factor": "Volume",
              "key": "volume",
              "points": 4.0
            }
          ],
          "total": 38.0,
          "raw_total": 38.0,
          "was_clamped": false
        },
        "expected_return_pct": -2.19,
        "expected_high": 399.08,
        "expected_low": 388.38,
        "expected_close": 388.38,
        "current_price": 397.09,
        "upside_pct": 0.5,
        "downside_risk_pct": 2.19,
        "risk_reward": 0.23,
        "rr_display": {
          "reward_risk_ratio": 0.23,
          "risk_reward_ratio": 4.35,
          "reward_per_share": null,
          "risk_per_share": null,
          "label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.23",
          "label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:4.35",
          "display": "Reward/Risk 0.23 · Risk:Reward 1:4.35",
          "convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
        },
        "expected_r": -0.5326,
        "final_score": 0.0,
        "trade_action": "Pass",
        "trade": "Pass",
        "gap_pct": -5.29,
        "relative_strength": -5.3,
        "relative_strength_vs_smh": -5.92,
        "relative_weakness_score": 8.85,
        "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
        "why_factors": [
          "RS 弱于 QQQ -5.30%",
          "Volume 信号",
          "期望R -0.53 < 0.15(EV门禁)"
        ],
        "why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -5.30% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.53 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
        "score": 0,
        "news_count": 0,
        "factor_breakdown": {
          "relative_strength_vs_qqq": -5.3,
          "relative_strength_vs_smh": -5.92,
          "relative_weakness_score": 8.85,
          "gap_pct": -5.29,
          "beta_proxy": -14.59,
          "volume_signal": true,
          "news_count": 0,
          "extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
          "vix_change_pct": 4.63,
          "prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
        },
        "edge_type": "Sector Edge",
        "score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(38%) × ER(-2.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
        "rr_weight": 0.5,
        "why_vs_runner_up": "—",
        "advisory": true,
        "rank": 19,
        "direction": "LONG"
      }
    ]
  },
  "intraday": {
    "s5": {
      "driver_still_valid": true,
      "action": "Hold"
    },
    "s6": {
      "trade_valid": false,
      "action": "N/A"
    },
    "s7": {
      "actual_driver": "Macro",
      "attribution": {
        "ai": 0.021,
        "bond": 0.368,
        "oil": 0.0,
        "macro": 0.562,
        "other": 0.05,
        "splits": {}
      }
    }
  },
  "trade_plan": {},
  "actual": {},
  "attribution": {
    "ai": 0.021,
    "bond": 0.368,
    "oil": 0.0,
    "macro": 0.562,
    "other": 0.05,
    "splits": {}
  },
  "labels": {
    "actual_driver": "Macro",
    "agent_driver": "Geopolitical Risk",
    "agent_driver_type": "Political",
    "corrected_driver_from_verify": null,
    "driver_splits": {},
    "hypothesis_correct": "部分对",
    "scenario_primary": "A",
    "scenario_actual": "none",
    "scenario_correct": false,
    "trade_recommendation": "—",
    "trade_direction": "NO TRADE",
    "primary_symbol": "—",
    "predicted_return_pct": null,
    "prediction_error_pct": null
  },
  "surprise": "No major surprises vs typical driver mix",
  "lesson": "AI Expansion 背景下 Macro 主导;关注 Regime vs Driver 分离",
  "playbook_refs": [
    "Case-31"
  ],
  "bayesian_drivers": {
    "AI": 1.0,
    "Bond": 0.0,
    "Macro": 0.0,
    "Oil": 0.0,
    "Risk": 0.0
  },
  "data_gaps": []
}