30 秒看懂:这不是炒股 App,也不会帮你下单。它每天自动做一套「晨会 → 盘中检查 → 收盘复盘」的研究报告,供你阅读和决策参考。
你唯一必须做的事:每个交易日收盘后花约 5 分钟去核对——告诉系统今天猜对了还是猜错了。核对越多,Agent 才会越用越准。
首页「Morning 一页纸 · 决策卡」每天 5 行 + Hypothesis。下面是一个假例子,帮你理解每行含义:
NYSE 休市日(周末、法定假日)没有当日报告,这是正常的——系统不会生成 Driver、决策卡或 Step 更新。
此时请点首页的「上一交易日」链接,查看最近一份完整报告。休市期间的新闻摘要(如有)仅供参考,不构成交易决策。
Day 32
H-2026-08-17-001Surprise:No major surprises vs typical driver mix
Lesson:AI Expansion 背景下 Macro 主导;关注 Regime vs Driver 分离
{
"date": "2026-08-17",
"features": {
"dgs10": 4.63,
"dgs2": null,
"vix": 14.91,
"vix_chg": 4.63,
"qqq_chg": -0.34,
"smh_chg": 0.79,
"nvda_chg": -0.14,
"spy_chg": 0.0,
"oil_chg": 0.0,
"dxy_chg": -0.2,
"breadth_proxy": 0.0,
"qqq_gap": 0.39,
"news_headline_count": 32,
"news_bearish_ratio": 0.0,
"news_ai_mentions": 84,
"news_macro_mentions": 9,
"news_oil_mentions": 3,
"news_risk_mentions": 0
},
"regime": {
"label": "AI Expansion",
"confidence": 0.82
},
"hypothesis": {
"id": "H-2026-08-17-001",
"statement": "弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)",
"evidence": [
"VIX=14.9 (low fear)",
"Breadth 71% (broad participation)"
],
"counter_evidence": [],
"confidence": 0.89,
"status": "待验证"
},
"morning": {
"bias": "Bullish Bias",
"total": 3,
"driver_type": "Political",
"daily_driver": "Geopolitical Risk",
"best_opportunity": {
"direction": "NO TRADE",
"symbol": "—",
"instrument": "—",
"horizon": "—",
"confidence": 45,
"entry": "—",
"stop": "—",
"target": "—",
"targets": [],
"duration": "—",
"why": [
"今日无任何标的达到交易阈值"
],
"why_chain": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"avoid": [],
"one_liner": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"advisory": true
},
"best_trades": {
"primary": null,
"secondary": null,
"watchlist": null,
"index_trade": "NO TRADE",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"stock_trades": [],
"top_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "AMD",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Intraday",
"confidence": 77,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+1.38%",
"expected_return_pct": 1.38,
"win_prob": 77.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 77.0,
"raw_total": 77.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 1.31,
"final_score": 1.03,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 6.77,
"entry": "Above 524.0 (ORB高点)",
"entry_source": "orb_high",
"entry_price": 524.04,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 522.47,
"high": 525.61,
"mid": 524.04,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 524.04
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 522–526",
"entry_source": "orb_high",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "518.5 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 518.5,
"target": "531.3 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 531.27,
"targets": [
"531.3 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 520.4,
"orb_high": 524.04,
"orb_low": 518.5,
"prev_high": 483.01,
"prev_low": 483.01,
"prior_close": 483.01,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +6.77%",
"RS vs SMH +6.15%",
"News 1",
"Volume 信号",
"Geometric upside 1.38% < soft 1.5%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +6.77% · RS vs SMH +6.15% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
"why_vs_runner_up": "AMD RS +6.8% vs MU +5.0%;ER 2.7% vs 2.0%;higher beta (20.9 vs 15.8);relative strength",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 6.77,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 6.15,
"relative_weakness_score": -10.46,
"gap_pct": 7.41,
"beta_proxy": 20.91,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 4.63,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(77%) × ER(2.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 531.27,
"expected_low": 503.48,
"expected_close": 531.27,
"current_price": 517.38,
"upside_pct": 2.68,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.68,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +6.77%",
"RS vs SMH +6.15%",
"News 1",
"Volume 信号",
"Geometric upside 1.38% < soft 1.5%"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +6.77% · RS vs SMH +6.15% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
"gap_pct": 7.41,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.31,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.76,
"reward_per_share": 7.23,
"risk_per_share": 5.54,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.31",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.76",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.76",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $518.5 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 524.04,
"source": "orb_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 524.04,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 518.5,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 518.5,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 520.4,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 531.27,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 531.27,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(531.27-524.04)/524.04=1.38%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.68,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 AMD:在 524.04 附近入场,目标 531.27,预期 +1.38%",
"expected_r": 0.7787,
"rr_below_hard_min": true,
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 94.3,
"shares": 18,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 99.72,
"win_usd": 130.14,
"loss_usd": 99.72,
"expected_value_usd": 77.27,
"risk_per_share": 5.54,
"reward_per_share": 7.23,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.31,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.76,
"reward_per_share": 7.23,
"risk_per_share": 5.54,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.31",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.76",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.31 · Risk:Reward 1:0.76",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$130 / Loss -$100"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 94.3,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 18,
"max_loss_usd": 99.72,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 94.3% → 18 unit(s) → Max Loss $99.72"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": 6.77,
"runner_up_value": 5.05,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 5.36,
"runner_up_value": 4.94,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 3,
"dimension": "win_prob",
"label": "Highest Probability",
"primary_value": 77.0,
"runner_up_value": 77.0,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 4,
"dimension": "risk_reward",
"label": "Best Risk Reward",
"primary_value": 1.31,
"runner_up_value": 0.77,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "MU",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"ER 1.4% vs 2.0%",
"Score 1.03 vs 0.77",
"RS +6.8% vs +5.0%",
"R:R 1.31 vs 0.68"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over MU: ER 1.4% vs 2.0% · Score 1.03 vs 0.77 · RS +6.8% vs +5.0% · R:R 1.31 vs 0.68"
},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 72",
"ER 1.4% vs 0.8%",
"Score 1.03 vs 0.28",
"RS +6.8% vs +1.8%",
"R:R 1.31 vs 0.42"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over ARM: Win% 77 vs 72 · ER 1.4% vs 0.8% · Score 1.03 vs 0.28 · RS +6.8% vs +1.8% · R:R 1.31 vs 0.42"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 71",
"ER 1.4% vs 0.3%",
"Score 1.03 vs 0.1",
"RS +6.8% vs +0.9%",
"R:R 1.31 vs 0.62"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over XLE: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 1.4% vs 0.3% · Score 1.03 vs 0.1 · RS +6.8% vs +0.9% · R:R 1.31 vs 0.62"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 71",
"ER 1.4% vs 0.2%",
"Score 1.03 vs 0.08",
"RS +6.8% vs +0.6%",
"R:R 1.31 vs 0.36"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over TQQQ: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 1.4% vs 0.2% · Score 1.03 vs 0.08 · RS +6.8% vs +0.6% · R:R 1.31 vs 0.36"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 71",
"ER 1.4% vs 0.2%",
"Score 1.03 vs 0.07",
"RS +6.8% vs +0.6%",
"R:R 1.31 vs 0.43"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over SMH: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 1.4% vs 0.2% · Score 1.03 vs 0.07 · RS +6.8% vs +0.6% · R:R 1.31 vs 0.43"
}
],
"rank_summary": "AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 77.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 77.27,
"win_scenario_usd": 130.14,
"loss_scenario_usd": 99.72,
"win_prob_pct": 77.0,
"display": "EV $+77 (win +$130 @ 77.0% · loss -$100)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 517.38,
"ideal_entry": 524.04,
"distance_pct": -1.27,
"remaining_er_pct": 2.68,
"live_expected_return_pct": 2.68,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 522.47,
"zone_high": 525.61,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
{
"rank": 2,
"symbol": "MU",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Intraday",
"confidence": 77,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+1.11%",
"expected_return_pct": 1.11,
"win_prob": 77.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 77.0,
"raw_total": 77.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 0.54,
"final_score": 0.77,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 5.05,
"entry": "Above 1009.9 (ORB高点)",
"entry_source": "orb_high",
"entry_price": 1009.86,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 1006.83,
"high": 1012.89,
"mid": 1009.86,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 1009.86
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 1007–1013",
"entry_source": "orb_high",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "989.0 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 989.01,
"target": "1021.1 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 1021.1,
"targets": [
"1021.1 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 1003.8,
"orb_high": 1009.86,
"orb_low": 989.01,
"prev_high": 949.83,
"prev_low": 949.83,
"prior_close": 949.83,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +5.05%",
"RS vs SMH +4.43%",
"News 1",
"Volume 信号",
"Geometric upside 1.11% < soft 1.5%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +5.05% · RS vs SMH +4.43% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 5.05,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.43,
"relative_weakness_score": -7.71,
"gap_pct": 5.81,
"beta_proxy": 15.85,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 4.63,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(77%) × ER(2.0%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 1021.1,
"expected_low": 971.66,
"expected_close": 1021.1,
"current_price": 1001.01,
"upside_pct": 2.01,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.93,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +5.05%",
"RS vs SMH +4.43%",
"News 1",
"Volume 信号",
"Geometric upside 1.11% < soft 1.5%"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +5.05% · RS vs SMH +4.43% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
"gap_pct": 5.81,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.54,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.85,
"reward_per_share": 11.24,
"risk_per_share": 20.85,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.54",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.85",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.54 · Risk:Reward 1:1.85",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $989.01 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 1009.86,
"source": "orb_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 1009.86,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 989.01,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 989.01,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 1021.1,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 1021.1,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(1021.1-1009.86)/1009.86=1.11%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.01,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 MU:在 1009.86 附近入场,目标 1021.1,预期 +1.11%",
"expected_r": 0.1858,
"rr_below_hard_min": true,
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 40.4,
"shares": 4,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 83.4,
"win_usd": 44.96,
"loss_usd": 83.4,
"expected_value_usd": 15.44,
"risk_per_share": 20.85,
"reward_per_share": 11.24,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.54,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.85,
"reward_per_share": 11.24,
"risk_per_share": 20.85,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.54",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.85",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.54 · Risk:Reward 1:1.85",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$45 / Loss -$83"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 40.4,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 4,
"max_loss_usd": 83.4,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 40.4% → 4 unit(s) → Max Loss $83.4"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "win_prob",
"label": "Highest Probability",
"primary_value": 77.0,
"runner_up_value": 77.0,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"ER 1.1% vs 2.7%",
"Score 0.77 vs 1.03",
"RS +5.0% vs +6.8%"
],
"summary": "Why MU over AMD: ER 1.1% vs 2.7% · Score 0.77 vs 1.03 · RS +5.0% vs +6.8%"
},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 72",
"ER 1.1% vs 0.8%",
"Score 0.77 vs 0.28",
"RS +5.0% vs +1.8%",
"R:R 0.54 vs 0.42"
],
"summary": "Why MU over ARM: Win% 77 vs 72 · ER 1.1% vs 0.8% · Score 0.77 vs 0.28 · RS +5.0% vs +1.8% · R:R 0.54 vs 0.42"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 71",
"ER 1.1% vs 0.3%",
"Score 0.77 vs 0.1",
"RS +5.0% vs +0.9%"
],
"summary": "Why MU over XLE: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 1.1% vs 0.3% · Score 0.77 vs 0.1 · RS +5.0% vs +0.9%"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 71",
"ER 1.1% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.77 vs 0.08",
"RS +5.0% vs +0.6%",
"R:R 0.54 vs 0.36"
],
"summary": "Why MU over TQQQ: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 1.1% vs 0.2% · Score 0.77 vs 0.08 · RS +5.0% vs +0.6% · R:R 0.54 vs 0.36"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 71",
"ER 1.1% vs 0.2%",
"Score 0.77 vs 0.07",
"RS +5.0% vs +0.6%",
"R:R 0.54 vs 0.43"
],
"summary": "Why MU over SMH: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 1.1% vs 0.2% · Score 0.77 vs 0.07 · RS +5.0% vs +0.6% · R:R 0.54 vs 0.43"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 77.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 15.44,
"win_scenario_usd": 44.96,
"loss_scenario_usd": 83.4,
"win_prob_pct": 77.0,
"display": "EV $+15 (win +$45 @ 77.0% · loss -$83)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 1001.01,
"ideal_entry": 1009.86,
"distance_pct": -0.88,
"remaining_er_pct": 2.01,
"live_expected_return_pct": 2.01,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 1006.83,
"zone_high": 1012.89,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
}
],
"watchlist_items": [
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 3,
"win_prob": 72.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.77,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.80% · RS vs SMH +1.18% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"rank": 4,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.27,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.86% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 5,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.22,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.61% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.03 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 6,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.2,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.62% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"rank": 7,
"win_prob": 59.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.1,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.04 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
}
],
"advisory": true,
"swing": {
"symbol": "META",
"direction": "SHORT",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"duration": "Swing (days–weeks)",
"confidence": 59,
"entry": "Near 590.9 (swing zone)",
"entry_source": "swing_zone",
"entry_price": 590.92,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 589.15,
"high": 601.7,
"mid": 590.92,
"display": "$589.15–$601.70",
"source": "swing_pullback"
},
"stop": "623.3 (1.75xATR)",
"stop_source": "1.75xATR",
"stop_price": 623.27,
"target": "547.8 (T1 ~7.3%)",
"target_source": "2xATR_or_5pct",
"target_price": 547.79,
"targets": [
{
"price": 547.79,
"label": "T1",
"pct": 7.3
},
{
"price": 526.23,
"label": "T2",
"pct": 10.95
}
],
"expected_return_pct": 7.3,
"expected_move": "+7.30%",
"risk_reward": 1.33,
"win_prob": 54.0,
"final_score": 0.0,
"swing_quality": 4.687,
"atr": 21.5643,
"atr_source": "ATR14",
"level_formula": "stop=1.5–2×ATR or prior-week extreme; T1=max(5%, 2×ATR); T2=min(15%, max(10%, 3×ATR))",
"current_price": 589.15,
"why": [
"高流动性波段标的 META",
"Prior day +0.0%",
"5D momentum -0.4%",
"RS vs QQQ -1.32%",
"News/2 catalyst hints",
"Swing score 4.7"
],
"why_chain": "高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -0.4% · RS vs QQQ -1.32%",
"invalidation": "Close beyond stop $623.27 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)",
"trade_summary_cn": "波段做空 META:理想入场 $589.15–$601.70,止损 $623.27,目标 $547.79(约 +7.3%),持仓天数–数周",
"one_liner": "波段做空 META:理想入场 $589.15–$601.70,止损 $623.27,目标 $547.79(约 +7.3%),持仓天数–数周",
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"advisory": true,
"label": "长线 · Swing Trade",
"separate_from_intraday": true
}
},
"edges": {
"macro_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "今日有重大催化剂(含地缘/突发):Geopolitical Risk、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy",
"catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy"
},
"index_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "QQQ 盘前/开盘 +0.35%"
},
"sector_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "SMH 领先 QQQ +0.56%",
"sector": "Semiconductor"
},
"stock_edge": {
"edge": "NO",
"why": "无单票 RS+新闻+量能共振"
},
"advisory": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议"
},
"trade_candidates": [
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"win_prob": 77.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 77.0,
"raw_total": 77.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 2.68,
"expected_high": 531.27,
"expected_low": 503.48,
"expected_close": 531.27,
"current_price": 517.38,
"upside_pct": 2.68,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.68,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.54,
"final_score": 1.03,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 7.41,
"relative_strength": 6.77,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 6.15,
"relative_weakness_score": -10.46,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +6.77%",
"RS vs SMH +6.15%",
"News 1",
"Volume 信号",
"Geometric upside 1.38% < soft 1.5%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +6.77% · RS vs SMH +6.15% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
"score": 10,
"news_count": 1,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 6.77,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 6.15,
"relative_weakness_score": -10.46,
"gap_pct": 7.41,
"beta_proxy": 20.91,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 4.63,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(77%) × ER(2.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "AMD RS +6.8% vs MU +5.0%;ER 2.7% vs 2.0%;higher beta (20.9 vs 15.8);relative strength",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 1,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "MU",
"win_prob": 77.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 77.0,
"raw_total": 77.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 2.01,
"expected_high": 1021.1,
"expected_low": 971.66,
"expected_close": 1021.1,
"current_price": 1001.01,
"upside_pct": 2.01,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.93,
"risk_reward": 0.68,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.68,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.47,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.68",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.47",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.68 · Risk:Reward 1:1.47",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.2936,
"final_score": 0.77,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 5.81,
"relative_strength": 5.05,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.43,
"relative_weakness_score": -7.71,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +5.05%",
"RS vs SMH +4.43%",
"News 1",
"Volume 信号",
"Geometric upside 1.11% < soft 1.5%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +5.05% · RS vs SMH +4.43% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
"score": 8,
"news_count": 1,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 5.05,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.43,
"relative_weakness_score": -7.71,
"gap_pct": 5.81,
"beta_proxy": 15.85,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 4.63,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(77%) × ER(2.0%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 2,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"win_prob": 72.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 72.0,
"raw_total": 72.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.77,
"expected_high": 286.79,
"expected_low": 279.44,
"expected_close": 286.79,
"current_price": 284.61,
"upside_pct": 0.77,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.82,
"risk_reward": 0.42,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.42,
"risk_reward_ratio": 2.38,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.42",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.38",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.42 · Risk:Reward 1:2.38",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.0224,
"final_score": 0.28,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 3.32,
"relative_strength": 1.8,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.18,
"relative_weakness_score": -2.51,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.80%",
"RS vs SMH +1.18%",
"Volume 信号",
"期望R 0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.80% · RS vs SMH +1.18% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
"score": 3,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.8,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.18,
"relative_weakness_score": -2.51,
"gap_pct": 3.32,
"beta_proxy": 6.29,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 4.63,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(72%) × ER(0.8%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 3,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "XLE",
"win_prob": 71.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 71.0,
"raw_total": 71.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.27,
"expected_high": 62.1,
"expected_low": 61.3,
"expected_close": 61.96,
"current_price": 61.79,
"upside_pct": 0.5,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 0.62,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.62,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.61,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.62",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.62 · Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.1502,
"final_score": 0.1,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 1.2,
"relative_strength": 0.86,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.24,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.0,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +0.86%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号",
"几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.86% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)",
"score": 1,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.86,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.24,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.0,
"gap_pct": 1.2,
"beta_proxy": 3.53,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 4.63,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(71%) × ER(0.3%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 4,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"win_prob": 71.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 71.0,
"raw_total": 71.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.22,
"expected_high": 78.27,
"expected_low": 76.79,
"expected_close": 78.05,
"current_price": 77.88,
"upside_pct": 0.5,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.4,
"risk_reward": 0.36,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.36,
"risk_reward_ratio": 2.78,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.36",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.78",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.36 · Risk:Reward 1:2.78",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": -0.0344,
"final_score": 0.08,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 1.19,
"relative_strength": 0.61,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -0.01,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.6,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +0.61%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号",
"期望R -0.03 < 0.15(EV门禁)"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.61% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.03 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
"score": 1,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.61,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -0.01,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.6,
"gap_pct": 1.19,
"beta_proxy": 2.79,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 4.63,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(71%) × ER(0.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 5,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"win_prob": 71.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 71.0,
"raw_total": 71.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.2,
"expected_high": 597.73,
"expected_low": 587.82,
"expected_close": 595.93,
"current_price": 594.76,
"upside_pct": 0.5,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.17,
"risk_reward": 0.43,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.43,
"risk_reward_ratio": 2.33,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.43",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.33",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.43 · Risk:Reward 1:2.33",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.0153,
"final_score": 0.07,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 0.9,
"relative_strength": 0.62,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.0,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.62,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +0.62%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号",
"期望R 0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.62% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
"score": 1,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.62,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.0,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.62,
"gap_pct": 0.9,
"beta_proxy": 2.82,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 4.63,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Sector Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(71%) × ER(0.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 6,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"win_prob": 59.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 59.0,
"raw_total": 59.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.1,
"expected_high": 342.82,
"expected_low": 338.38,
"expected_close": 341.45,
"current_price": 341.11,
"upside_pct": 0.5,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 0.62,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.62,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.61,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
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"expected_return_pct": -0.17,
"expected_high": 538.39,
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"upside_pct": 0.5,
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"risk_reward_ratio": 1.61,
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"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.62",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.62 · Risk:Reward 1:1.61",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": -0.1252,
"final_score": 0.0,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
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"relative_strength": -0.75,
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"relative_weakness_score": 1.57,
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"why_factors": [
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"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 3",
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"期望R -0.13 < 0.15(EV门禁)"
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"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -0.75% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 3 · Volume 信号",
"score": 0,
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"factor_breakdown": {
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"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 16,
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},
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
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"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
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{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -10.0
},
{
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{
"factor": "Catalyst",
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{
"factor": "Volume",
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],
"total": 54.0,
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},
"expected_return_pct": -0.31,
"expected_high": 495.4,
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"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.77",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.30",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.77 · Risk:Reward 1:1.30",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": -0.0442,
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"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -1.25% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 6 · Volume 信号",
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"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
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},
{
"symbol": "META",
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{
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"points": -10.0
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{
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{
"factor": "Catalyst",
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{
"factor": "Volume",
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"points": 4.0
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],
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},
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"expected_high": 592.1,
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"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
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"trade": "Pass",
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"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 2",
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"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 18,
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},
{
"symbol": "AVGO",
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{
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"points": 50.0
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{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -16.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
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],
"total": 38.0,
"raw_total": 38.0,
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},
"expected_return_pct": -2.19,
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"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.23",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:4.35",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.23 · Risk:Reward 1:4.35",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": -0.5326,
"final_score": 0.0,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
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"why_factors": [
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"Volume 信号",
"期望R -0.53 < 0.15(EV门禁)"
],
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -5.30% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.53 < 0.15(EV门禁)",
"score": 0,
"news_count": 0,
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"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(38%) × ER(-2.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
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"advisory": true,
"rank": 19,
"direction": "LONG"
}
]
},
"intraday": {
"s5": {
"driver_still_valid": true,
"action": "Hold"
},
"s6": {
"trade_valid": false,
"action": "N/A"
},
"s7": {
"actual_driver": "Macro",
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.021,
"bond": 0.368,
"oil": 0.0,
"macro": 0.562,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {}
}
}
},
"trade_plan": {},
"actual": {},
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"ai": 0.021,
"bond": 0.368,
"oil": 0.0,
"macro": 0.562,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {}
},
"labels": {
"actual_driver": "Macro",
"agent_driver": "Geopolitical Risk",
"agent_driver_type": "Political",
"corrected_driver_from_verify": null,
"driver_splits": {},
"hypothesis_correct": "部分对",
"scenario_primary": "A",
"scenario_actual": "none",
"scenario_correct": false,
"trade_recommendation": "—",
"trade_direction": "NO TRADE",
"primary_symbol": "—",
"predicted_return_pct": null,
"prediction_error_pct": null
},
"surprise": "No major surprises vs typical driver mix",
"lesson": "AI Expansion 背景下 Macro 主导;关注 Regime vs Driver 分离",
"playbook_refs": [
"Case-31"
],
"bayesian_drivers": {
"AI": 1.0,
"Bond": 0.0,
"Macro": 0.0,
"Oil": 0.0,
"Risk": 0.0
},
"data_gaps": []
}