Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 32
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLE Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 71.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 set at session re-eval: MU · ADVISORY

Primary changed vs Morning Ideal

↻ MU LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 1008–1014 · Live ER +2.74% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ MU LONG MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 77.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ AMD LONG 77.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLE Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 65.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    nuclear — Google, Amazon, and Meta All Just Raised Capex Guidance Again. This Boring Indus

  2. Secondary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — Google, Amazon, and Meta All Just Raised Capex Guidance Again. This Boring Indus
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 nuclear — 2 Best Nuclear Power Stocks Right Now
  • commodity Oil Selloff 74 XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 732.1 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 732.1 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 732.1 (昨日低点) and 732.1 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 AMD
AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
LONG Intraday 77.0% 1.38% Reward/Risk 1.31 Entry Zone 522–526 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$518.5 $531.27 RS vs QQQ +6.77% · RS vs SMH +6.15% · News 1 · Volume 信号 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $518.5 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 MU LONG Intraday 77.0% 1.11% Reward/Risk 0.54 Entry Zone 1007–1013 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$989.01 $1021.1 RS vs QQQ +5.05% · RS vs SMH +4.43% · News 1 · Volume 信号 Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $989.01 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • ARM · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.80% · RS vs SMH +1.18% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • XLE · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.86% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.61% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.03 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.62% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.02 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • TSLA · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.04 < 0.15(EV门禁)
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE
Win Prob
Ideal Entry (frozen)
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target
R:R
P&L
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.08 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk、Oil Selloff

Today's Biggest Risk

Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw

  • Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $589.15–$601.70
Stop · Target $623.27 → $547.79 / T2 $526.23
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -0.4%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $623.27 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 META:理想入场 $589.15–$601.70,止损 $623.27,目标 $547.79(约 +7.3%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-17-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (-2.07%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 5.03% +7.10%
UUP -0.14% +1.93%
QQQ -2.07% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →