30 秒看懂：这不是炒股 App，也不会帮你下单。它每天自动做一套「晨会 → 盘中检查 → 收盘复盘」的研究报告，供你阅读和决策参考。
你唯一必须做的事：每个交易日收盘后花约 5 分钟去核对——告诉系统今天猜对了还是猜错了。核对越多，Agent 才会越用越准。
首页「Morning 一页纸 · 决策卡」每天 5 行 + Hypothesis。下面是一个假例子，帮你理解每行含义：
NYSE 休市日（周末、法定假日）没有当日报告，这是正常的——系统不会生成 Driver、决策卡或 Step 更新。
此时请点首页的「上一交易日」链接，查看最近一份完整报告。休市期间的新闻摘要（如有）仅供参考，不构成交易决策。
Day 11
H-2026-07-17-001Surprise：AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day
Lesson：AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量；SMH -6.2% + QQQ -3.2%：半导体拖累纳指
{
"date": "2026-07-17",
"features": {
"dgs10": 4.55,
"dgs2": null,
"vix": 18.11,
"vix_chg": 8.25,
"qqq_chg": -3.22,
"smh_chg": -6.18,
"nvda_chg": -4.82,
"spy_chg": 0.0,
"oil_chg": 0.0,
"dxy_chg": 0.07,
"breadth_proxy": 0.14285714285714285,
"qqq_gap": -3.38,
"news_headline_count": 30,
"news_bearish_ratio": 0.2,
"news_ai_mentions": 56,
"news_macro_mentions": 1,
"news_oil_mentions": 2,
"news_risk_mentions": 1
},
"regime": {
"label": "AI Expansion",
"confidence": 0.82
},
"hypothesis": {
"id": "H-2026-07-17-001",
"statement": "AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds?",
"evidence": [
"Regime=AI Expansion (conf=82%)"
],
"counter_evidence": [
"VIX↑ 8.2% (risk-off pressure)",
"Breadth 14% (narrow market)"
],
"confidence": 0.48,
"status": "待验证"
},
"morning": {
"bias": "Strong Bear",
"total": -5,
"driver_type": "Political",
"daily_driver": "Geopolitical Risk",
"best_opportunity": {
"direction": "NO TRADE",
"symbol": "—",
"instrument": "—",
"horizon": "—",
"confidence": 45,
"entry": "—",
"stop": "—",
"target": "—",
"targets": [],
"duration": "—",
"why": [
"今日无任何标的达到交易阈值"
],
"why_chain": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"avoid": [],
"one_liner": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"advisory": true
},
"best_trades": {
"primary": null,
"secondary": null,
"watchlist": null,
"index_trade": "NO TRADE",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"stock_trades": [],
"top_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"direction": "SHORT",
"instrument": "ETF",
"horizon": "Swing",
"confidence": 54,
"confidence_stars": "★★☆☆☆",
"expected_move": "+0.36%",
"expected_return_pct": 0.36,
"win_prob": 54.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": -12.0
}
],
"total": 54.0,
"raw_total": 54.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 0.05,
"final_score": 0.56,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": -6.35,
"entry": "Below 66.2 (ORB低点)",
"entry_source": "orb_low",
"entry_price": 66.17,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 66.0,
"high": 66.35,
"mid": 66.17,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB低点",
"price": 66.15
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 66.00–66.35",
"entry_source": "orb_low",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "70.7 (ORB高点)",
"stop_source": "orb_high",
"stop_price": 70.74,
"target": "65.9 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 65.93,
"targets": [
"65.9 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 67.08,
"orb_high": 70.74,
"orb_low": 66.15,
"prev_high": 74.44,
"prev_low": 74.44,
"prior_close": 74.44,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS弱于QQQ -6.35%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高",
"Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation",
"Price ER 0.36% < 1.0%"
],
"why_chain": "RS弱于QQQ -6.35% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation",
"why_vs_runner_up": "TQQQ RS -6.3% vs AVGO +1.3%；Win% 54 vs 42；higher beta (3.0 vs 0.6)；relative weakness play",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -6.35,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -3.13,
"relative_weakness_score": 8.23,
"gap_pct": -10.06,
"beta_proxy": 2.98,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 8.25,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(2.1%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 70.74,
"expected_low": 65.93,
"expected_close": 65.93,
"current_price": 67.33,
"upside_pct": 2.07,
"downside_risk_pct": 5.06,
"why_factors": [
"RS弱于QQQ -6.35%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高",
"Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation",
"Price ER 0.36% < 1.0%"
],
"why_today": "RS弱于QQQ -6.35% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation",
"gap_pct": -10.06,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.05,
"risk_reward_ratio": 20.0,
"reward_per_share": 0.24,
"risk_per_share": 4.57,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.05",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:20.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.05 · Risk:Reward 1:20.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk · Macro Surprise",
"invalidation": "Close above stop $70.74 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 66.17,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 66.15,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 70.74,
"source": "orb_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 70.74,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 65.93,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 65.93,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(66.17-65.93)/66.17=0.36%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.07,
"target_action": "买入/平空仓",
"trade_summary_cn": "做空 TQQQ：在 66.17 附近入场，目标 65.93，预期 +0.36%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 13.9,
"shares": 21,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 95.97,
"win_usd": 5.04,
"loss_usd": 95.97,
"expected_value_usd": -41.42,
"risk_per_share": 4.57,
"reward_per_share": 0.24,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.05,
"risk_reward_ratio": 20.0,
"reward_per_share": 0.24,
"risk_per_share": 4.57,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.05",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:20.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.05 · Risk:Reward 1:20.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$5 / Loss -$96"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 13.9,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 21,
"max_loss_usd": 95.97,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 13.9% → 21 unit(s) → Max Loss $95.97"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": -6.35,
"runner_up_value": 1.95,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 7.13,
"runner_up_value": 4.2,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 3,
"dimension": "liquidity",
"label": "Highest Liquidity",
"primary_value": 5.0,
"runner_up_value": 5.0,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "AVGO",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 42",
"ER 0.4% vs 2.1%",
"Score 0.56 vs 0.44",
"RS -6.3% vs +1.3%"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over AVGO: Win% 54 vs 42 · ER 0.4% vs 2.1% · Score 0.56 vs 0.44 · RS -6.3% vs +1.3%"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"ER 0.4% vs 1.2%",
"Score 0.56 vs 0.32",
"RS -6.3% vs -3.2%"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over SMH: ER 0.4% vs 1.2% · Score 0.56 vs 0.32 · RS -6.3% vs -3.2%"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 72",
"ER 0.4% vs 0.5%",
"Score 0.56 vs 0.18",
"RS -6.3% vs -0.8%"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over META: Win% 54 vs 72 · ER 0.4% vs 0.5% · Score 0.56 vs 0.18 · RS -6.3% vs -0.8%"
},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 46",
"ER 0.4% vs 0.5%",
"Score 0.56 vs 0.11",
"RS -6.3% vs -0.1%"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over ARM: Win% 54 vs 46 · ER 0.4% vs 0.5% · Score 0.56 vs 0.11 · RS -6.3% vs -0.1%"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 54 vs 39",
"ER 0.4% vs 0.5%",
"Score 0.56 vs 0.1",
"RS -6.3% vs -1.5%"
],
"summary": "Why TQQQ over NVDA: Win% 54 vs 39 · ER 0.4% vs 0.5% · Score 0.56 vs 0.1 · RS -6.3% vs -1.5%"
}
],
"rank_summary": "TQQQ ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + acceptable liquidity",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 54.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": -41.42,
"win_scenario_usd": 5.04,
"loss_scenario_usd": 95.97,
"win_prob_pct": 54.0,
"display": "EV $-41 (win +$5 @ 54.0% · loss -$96)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 67.33,
"ideal_entry": 66.17,
"distance_pct": -1.75,
"remaining_er_pct": 2.08,
"live_expected_return_pct": 2.08,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 66.0,
"zone_high": 66.35,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
},
{
"rank": 2,
"symbol": "AVGO",
"direction": "SHORT",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"confidence": 42,
"confidence_stars": "★★☆☆☆",
"expected_move": "+0.90%",
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"win_prob": 42.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -22.0
},
{
"factor": "Trend",
"key": "trend",
"points": 8.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 42.0,
"raw_total": 42.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 0.29,
"final_score": 0.44,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 1.34,
"entry": "Below 363.1 (ORB低点)",
"entry_source": "orb_low",
"entry_price": 363.08,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 361.99,
"high": 364.17,
"mid": 363.08,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB低点",
"price": 363.08
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 362–364",
"entry_source": "orb_low",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "374.4 (ORB高点)",
"stop_source": "orb_high",
"stop_price": 374.45,
"target": "359.8 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 359.8,
"targets": [
"359.8 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 366.26,
"orb_high": 374.45,
"orb_low": 363.08,
"prev_high": null,
"prev_low": null,
"prior_close": 374.45,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"板块内相对强势 +1.34%",
"半导体内领涨 +4.56%",
"昨日弱势 -6.7% 延续下行",
"VIX 走高",
"Price ER 0.90% < 1.0%"
],
"why_chain": "板块内相对强势 +1.34% · 半导体内领涨 +4.56% · 昨日弱势 -6.7% 延续下行 · VIX 走高",
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.34,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.56,
"relative_weakness_score": -4.08,
"gap_pct": -2.2,
"beta_proxy": 0.58,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 8.25,
"prior_day_change_pct": -6.67
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(42%) × ER(2.1%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 375.2,
"expected_low": 359.8,
"expected_close": 359.8,
"current_price": 367.5,
"upside_pct": 2.1,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.1,
"why_factors": [
"板块内相对强势 +1.34%",
"半导体内领涨 +4.56%",
"昨日弱势 -6.7% 延续下行",
"VIX 走高",
"Price ER 0.90% < 1.0%"
],
"why_today": "板块内相对强势 +1.34% · 半导体内领涨 +4.56% · 昨日弱势 -6.7% 延续下行 · VIX 走高",
"gap_pct": -2.2,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.29,
"risk_reward_ratio": 3.45,
"reward_per_share": 3.28,
"risk_per_share": 11.37,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.29",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:3.45",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.29 · Risk:Reward 1:3.45",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk · Macro Surprise",
"invalidation": "Close above stop $374.45 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 363.08,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 363.08,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 374.45,
"source": "orb_high",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 374.45,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 359.8,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 359.8,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(363.08-359.8)/363.08=0.90%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.1,
"target_action": "买入/平空仓",
"trade_summary_cn": "做空 AVGO：在 363.08 附近入场，目标 359.8，预期 +0.90%",
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 29.0,
"shares": 8,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 90.96,
"win_usd": 26.24,
"loss_usd": 90.96,
"expected_value_usd": -41.74,
"risk_per_share": 11.37,
"reward_per_share": 3.28,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.29,
"risk_reward_ratio": 3.45,
"reward_per_share": 3.28,
"risk_per_share": 11.37,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.29",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:3.45",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.29 · Risk:Reward 1:3.45",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$26 / Loss -$91"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 29.0,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 8,
"max_loss_usd": 90.96,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 29.0% → 8 unit(s) → Max Loss $90.96"
},
"why_wins_today": [],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 1,
"reasons": [
"Win% 42 vs 54",
"ER 0.9% vs 2.1%",
"Score 0.44 vs 0.56",
"RS +1.3% vs -6.3%"
],
"summary": "Why AVGO over TQQQ: Win% 42 vs 54 · ER 0.9% vs 2.1% · Score 0.44 vs 0.56 · RS +1.3% vs -6.3%"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"Win% 42 vs 54",
"ER 0.9% vs 1.2%",
"Score 0.44 vs 0.32",
"RS +1.3% vs -3.2%"
],
"summary": "Why AVGO over SMH: Win% 42 vs 54 · ER 0.9% vs 1.2% · Score 0.44 vs 0.32 · RS +1.3% vs -3.2%"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 42 vs 72",
"ER 0.9% vs 0.5%",
"Score 0.44 vs 0.18",
"RS +1.3% vs -0.8%"
],
"summary": "Why AVGO over META: Win% 42 vs 72 · ER 0.9% vs 0.5% · Score 0.44 vs 0.18 · RS +1.3% vs -0.8%"
},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 42 vs 46",
"ER 0.9% vs 0.5%",
"Score 0.44 vs 0.11",
"RS +1.3% vs -0.1%"
],
"summary": "Why AVGO over ARM: Win% 42 vs 46 · ER 0.9% vs 0.5% · Score 0.44 vs 0.11 · RS +1.3% vs -0.1%"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 42 vs 39",
"ER 0.9% vs 0.5%",
"Score 0.44 vs 0.1",
"RS +1.3% vs -1.5%"
],
"summary": "Why AVGO over NVDA: Win% 42 vs 39 · ER 0.9% vs 0.5% · Score 0.44 vs 0.1 · RS +1.3% vs -1.5%"
}
],
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 42.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": -41.74,
"win_scenario_usd": 26.24,
"loss_scenario_usd": 90.96,
"win_prob_pct": 42.0,
"display": "EV $-42 (win +$26 @ 42.0% · loss -$91)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 367.5,
"ideal_entry": 363.08,
"distance_pct": -1.22,
"remaining_er_pct": 2.1,
"live_expected_return_pct": 2.1,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 361.99,
"zone_high": 364.17,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
}
],
"watchlist_items": [
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 3,
"win_prob": 54.0,
"expected_return_pct": 1.18,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -3.22% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 4,
"win_prob": 72.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -0.80% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"rank": 5,
"win_prob": 46.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.49,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "半导体内领涨 +3.09% · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 6,
"win_prob": 39.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.53,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -1.53% · 半导体内领涨 +1.69% · News 8 (利空做空) · Volume 信号",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"rank": 7,
"win_prob": 46.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.44,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "半导体内领涨 +3.34% · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
}
],
"advisory": true,
"swing": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"direction": "SHORT",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"duration": "Swing (days–weeks)",
"confidence": 51,
"entry": "Near 487.0 (swing zone)",
"entry_source": "swing_zone",
"entry_price": 486.96,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 485.5,
"high": 506.75,
"mid": 486.96,
"display": "$485.50–$506.75",
"source": "swing_pullback"
},
"stop": "546.3 (1.75xATR)",
"stop_source": "1.75xATR",
"stop_price": 546.32,
"target": "407.8 (T1 ~16.3%)",
"target_source": "2xATR_or_5pct",
"target_price": 407.81,
"targets": [
{
"price": 407.81,
"label": "T1",
"pct": 16.25
},
{
"price": 391.5,
"label": "T2",
"pct": 19.6
}
],
"expected_return_pct": 16.25,
"expected_move": "+16.25%",
"risk_reward": 1.33,
"win_prob": 46.0,
"final_score": 0.1,
"swing_quality": 6.227,
"atr": 39.5743,
"atr_source": "ATR14",
"level_formula": "stop=1.5–2×ATR or prior-week extreme; T1=max(5%, 2×ATR); T2=min(15%, max(10%, 3×ATR))",
"current_price": 485.5,
"why": [
"高流动性波段标的 AMD",
"Prior day -8.2%",
"5D momentum -8.4%",
"RS vs QQQ +0.12%",
"Swing score 6.2"
],
"why_chain": "高流动性波段标的 AMD · Prior day -8.2% · 5D momentum -8.4% · RS vs QQQ +0.12%",
"invalidation": "Close beyond stop $546.32 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)",
"trade_summary_cn": "波段做空 AMD：理想入场 $485.50–$506.75，止损 $546.32，目标 $407.81（约 +16.2%），持仓天数–数周",
"one_liner": "波段做空 AMD：理想入场 $485.50–$506.75，止损 $546.32，目标 $407.81（约 +16.2%），持仓天数–数周",
"edge_type": "Range",
"advisory": true,
"label": "长线 · Swing Trade",
"separate_from_intraday": true
}
},
"edges": {
"macro_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "今日有重大催化剂（含地缘/突发）：Geopolitical Risk、Macro Surprise、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy",
"catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk、Macro Surprise、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy"
},
"index_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "QQQ 走弱 -3.18%（做空 edge）"
},
"sector_edge": {
"edge": "NO",
"why": "板块相对强度不足"
},
"stock_edge": {
"edge": "NO",
"why": "无单票 RS+新闻+量能共振"
},
"advisory": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议"
},
"trade_candidates": [
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"win_prob": 54.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": -12.0
}
],
"total": 54.0,
"raw_total": 54.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 2.07,
"expected_high": 70.74,
"expected_low": 65.93,
"expected_close": 65.93,
"current_price": 67.33,
"upside_pct": 2.07,
"downside_risk_pct": 5.06,
"risk_reward": 0.41,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.41,
"risk_reward_ratio": 2.44,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.41",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.44",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.41 · Risk:Reward 1:2.44",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.56,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -10.06,
"relative_strength": -6.35,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -3.13,
"relative_weakness_score": 8.23,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS弱于QQQ -6.35%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高",
"Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation",
"Price ER 0.36% < 1.0%"
],
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -6.35% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation",
"score": 6,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -6.35,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": -3.13,
"relative_weakness_score": 8.23,
"gap_pct": -10.06,
"beta_proxy": 2.98,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 8.25,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(2.1%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "TQQQ RS -6.3% vs AVGO +1.3%；Win% 54 vs 42；higher beta (3.0 vs 0.6)；relative weakness play",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 1,
"direction": "SHORT"
},
{
"symbol": "AVGO",
"win_prob": 42.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -22.0
},
{
"factor": "Trend",
"key": "trend",
"points": 8.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 42.0,
"raw_total": 42.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 2.1,
"expected_high": 375.2,
"expected_low": 359.8,
"expected_close": 359.8,
"current_price": 367.5,
"upside_pct": 2.1,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.1,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.44,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -2.2,
"relative_strength": 1.34,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.56,
"relative_weakness_score": -4.08,
"prior_day_change_pct": -6.67,
"why_factors": [
"板块内相对强势 +1.34%",
"半导体内领涨 +4.56%",
"昨日弱势 -6.7% 延续下行",
"VIX 走高",
"Price ER 0.90% < 1.0%"
],
"why": "板块内相对强势 +1.34% · 半导体内领涨 +4.56% · 昨日弱势 -6.7% 延续下行 · VIX 走高",
"score": 4,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.34,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.56,
"relative_weakness_score": -4.08,
"gap_pct": -2.2,
"beta_proxy": 0.58,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 8.25,
"prior_day_change_pct": -6.67
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(42%) × ER(2.1%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 2,
"direction": "SHORT"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"win_prob": 54.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": -12.0
}
],
"total": 54.0,
"raw_total": 54.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 1.18,
"expected_high": 568.92,
"expected_low": 546.27,
"expected_close": 546.27,
"current_price": 552.82,
"upside_pct": 1.18,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.91,
"risk_reward": 0.41,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.41,
"risk_reward_ratio": 2.44,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.41",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.44",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.41 · Risk:Reward 1:2.44",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.32,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -6.76,
"relative_strength": -3.22,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.0,
"relative_weakness_score": 3.22,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS弱于QQQ -3.22%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高",
"Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation"
],
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -3.22% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation",
"score": 3,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -3.22,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 0.0,
"relative_weakness_score": 3.22,
"gap_pct": -6.76,
"beta_proxy": 2.01,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 8.25,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(1.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 3,
"direction": "SHORT"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"win_prob": 72.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 72.0,
"raw_total": 72.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"expected_high": 664.54,
"expected_low": 648.83,
"expected_close": 650.8,
"current_price": 654.06,
"upside_pct": 0.8,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.6,
"risk_reward": 0.5,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.5,
"risk_reward_ratio": 2.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.50",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.50 · Risk:Reward 1:2.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.18,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -4.23,
"relative_strength": -0.8,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 2.42,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.65,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS弱于QQQ -0.80%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -0.80% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 2,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -0.8,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 2.42,
"relative_weakness_score": -0.65,
"gap_pct": -4.23,
"beta_proxy": 1.25,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 8.25,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(72%) × ER(0.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 4,
"direction": "SHORT"
},
{
"symbol": "ARM",
"win_prob": 46.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -10.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 46.0,
"raw_total": 46.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.49,
"expected_high": 255.81,
"expected_low": 250.75,
"expected_close": 252.03,
"current_price": 253.28,
"upside_pct": 1.0,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.0,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.11,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -4.04,
"relative_strength": -0.13,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.09,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.72,
"prior_day_change_pct": -8.57,
"why_factors": [
"半导体内领涨 +3.09%",
"VIX 走高",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "半导体内领涨 +3.09% · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 1,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -0.13,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.09,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.72,
"gap_pct": -4.04,
"beta_proxy": 1.04,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 8.25,
"prior_day_change_pct": -8.57
},
"edge_type": "Range",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(46%) × ER(0.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 5,
"direction": "SHORT"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"win_prob": 39.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 2.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": -5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": -12.0
}
],
"total": 39.0,
"raw_total": 39.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.53,
"expected_high": 207.4,
"expected_low": 200.84,
"expected_close": 201.39,
"current_price": 202.46,
"upside_pct": 0.8,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.44,
"risk_reward": 0.33,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.33,
"risk_reward_ratio": 3.03,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.33",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:3.03",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.33 · Risk:Reward 1:3.03",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.1,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -5.3,
"relative_strength": -1.53,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.69,
"relative_weakness_score": 0.52,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS弱于QQQ -1.53%",
"半导体内领涨 +1.69%",
"News 8 (利空做空)",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高",
"Geo-risk day — avoid blind NVDA short vs escalation"
],
"why": "RS弱于QQQ -1.53% · 半导体内领涨 +1.69% · News 8 (利空做空) · Volume 信号",
"score": 1,
"news_count": 8,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -1.53,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 1.69,
"relative_weakness_score": 0.52,
"gap_pct": -5.3,
"beta_proxy": 1.48,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 8,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 8.25,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(39%) × ER(0.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 6,
"direction": "SHORT"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"win_prob": 46.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -10.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 46.0,
"raw_total": 46.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.44,
"expected_high": 490.36,
"expected_low": 480.64,
"expected_close": 483.35,
"current_price": 485.5,
"upside_pct": 1.0,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.0,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.1,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -4.65,
"relative_strength": 0.12,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.34,
"relative_weakness_score": -2.12,
"prior_day_change_pct": -8.25,
"why_factors": [
"半导体内领涨 +3.34%",
"VIX 走高",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "半导体内领涨 +3.34% · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 1,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.12,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.34,
"relative_weakness_score": -2.12,
"gap_pct": -4.65,
"beta_proxy": 0.96,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 8.25,
"prior_day_change_pct": -8.25
},
"edge_type": "Range",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(46%) × ER(0.4%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 7,
"direction": "SHORT"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"win_prob": 60.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 60.0,
"raw_total": 60.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.27,
"expected_high": 705.94,
"expected_low": 689.24,
"expected_close": 692.92,
"current_price": 694.8,
"upside_pct": 0.8,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.6,
"risk_reward": 0.5,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.5,
"risk_reward_ratio": 2.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.50",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.50 · Risk:Reward 1:2.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.08,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -3.38,
"relative_strength": 0.0,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.22,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.93,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 1,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.0,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.22,
"relative_weakness_score": -1.93,
"gap_pct": -3.38,
"beta_proxy": 1.0,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 8.25,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Index Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(60%) × ER(0.3%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 8,
"direction": "SHORT"
},
{
"symbol": "MU",
"win_prob": 29.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -22.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": -5.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 29.0,
"raw_total": 29.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.17,
"expected_high": 843.15,
"expected_low": 826.45,
"expected_close": 833.42,
"current_price": 834.8,
"upside_pct": 1.0,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.0,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.02,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -5.31,
"relative_strength": 1.04,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.26,
"relative_weakness_score": -3.6,
"prior_day_change_pct": -7.66,
"why_factors": [
"板块内相对强势 +1.04%",
"半导体内领涨 +4.26%",
"News 1 (利空做空)",
"VIX 走高",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "板块内相对强势 +1.04% · 半导体内领涨 +4.26% · News 1 (利空做空) · VIX 走高",
"score": 0,
"news_count": 1,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.04,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 4.26,
"relative_weakness_score": -3.6,
"gap_pct": -5.31,
"beta_proxy": 0.68,
"volume_signal": false,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 8.25,
"prior_day_change_pct": -7.66
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(29%) × ER(0.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 9,
"direction": "SHORT"
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"win_prob": 48.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 48.0,
"raw_total": 48.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.05,
"expected_high": 391.06,
"expected_low": 381.53,
"expected_close": 384.41,
"current_price": 384.61,
"upside_pct": 0.8,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.68,
"risk_reward": 0.48,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.48,
"risk_reward_ratio": 2.08,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.48",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:2.08",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.48 · Risk:Reward 1:2.08",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.01,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -2.41,
"relative_strength": 0.7,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.92,
"relative_weakness_score": -3.05,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"板块内相对强势 +0.70%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "板块内相对强势 +0.70% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 0,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.7,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.92,
"relative_weakness_score": -3.05,
"gap_pct": -2.41,
"beta_proxy": 0.78,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 8.25,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(48%) × ER(0.1%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 10,
"direction": "SHORT"
},
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"win_prob": 48.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": -12.0
},
{
"factor": "Gap",
"key": "gap",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": -5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
},
{
"factor": "Macro",
"key": "macro",
"points": 6.0
}
],
"total": 48.0,
"raw_total": 48.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": -0.28,
"expected_high": 750.72,
"expected_low": 739.43,
"expected_close": 747.47,
"current_price": 745.39,
"upside_pct": 0.8,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.71,
"risk_reward": 1.12,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.12,
"risk_reward_ratio": 0.89,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.12",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:0.89",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.12 · Risk:Reward 1:0.89",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"final_score": 0.0,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -1.39,
"relative_strength": 1.95,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 5.17,
"relative_weakness_score": -5.05,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"板块内相对强势 +1.95%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 1 (利空做空)",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 走高",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "板块内相对强势 +1.95% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号",
"score": 0,
"news_count": 1,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.95,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 5.17,
"relative_weakness_score": -5.05,
"gap_pct": -1.39,
"beta_proxy": 0.39,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 8.25,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(48%) × ER(-0.3%) × rr_weight(0.56) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.56,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 11,
"direction": "SHORT"
}
]
},
"intraday": {
"s5": {
"driver_still_valid": true,
"action": "Hold"
},
"s6": {
"trade_valid": false,
"action": "N/A"
},
"s7": {
"actual_driver": "AI Chip Selloff",
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.834,
"bond": 0.016,
"oil": 0.0,
"macro": 0.101,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {
"AI Chip Selloff": 0.844
}
}
}
},
"trade_plan": {},
"actual": {},
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.834,
"bond": 0.016,
"oil": 0.0,
"macro": 0.101,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {
"AI Chip Selloff": 0.844
}
},
"labels": {
"actual_driver": "AI Chip Selloff",
"agent_driver": "Geopolitical Risk",
"agent_driver_type": "Political",
"corrected_driver_from_verify": null,
"driver_splits": {
"AI Chip Selloff": 0.843638425367234
},
"hypothesis_correct": "部分对",
"scenario_primary": "A",
"scenario_actual": "B",
"scenario_correct": false,
"trade_recommendation": "—",
"trade_direction": "NO TRADE",
"primary_symbol": "—",
"predicted_return_pct": null,
"prediction_error_pct": null
},
"surprise": "AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day",
"lesson": "AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量；SMH -6.2% + QQQ -3.2%：半导体拖累纳指",
"playbook_refs": [
"Case-11"
],
"bayesian_drivers": {
"AI": 1.0,
"Bond": 0.0,
"Macro": 0.0,
"Oil": 0.0,
"Risk": 0.0
},
"data_gaps": []
}