Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 11
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 42.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 46.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 39.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 set at session re-eval: AVGO · ADVISORY

Primary changed vs Morning Ideal

↻ AVGO SHORT · Ideal Entry Zone 363–365 · Live ER +2.53% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★☆☆☆ TQQQ Wait 54.0% Wait
  • ★★☆☆☆ AVGO SHORT 42.0% Trade
  • ★★☆☆☆ SMH SHORT 54.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 58.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 39.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Billionaire Israel Englander 1000X'd His Stake in a Vanguard ETF That's Been a S

  2. Secondary Macro — Macro Surprise

    ism around superconductor technology commercialization. a microsoft blog post highlighting the viability of high-temperature superconductors in data centers and an ohio state study on room-temperature superconductors boosted investor sentiment. while the company's current revenue is primarily from conventional utility equipment, superconductor technology represents significant long-term upside potential. superconductor technology high-temperature superconductors ai data centers electrical grid modernization commercialization earnings beat cloud infrastructure — Why American Superconductor Corporation Rallied in the First Half of 2026

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Macro Surprise + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Billionaire Israel Englander 1000X'd His Stake in a Vanguard ETF That's Been a S
  • breaking Macro Surprise 88 ism around superconductor technology commercialization. a microsoft blog post highlighting the viability of high-temperature superconductors in data centers and an ohio state study on room-temperature superconductors boosted investor sentiment. while the company's current revenue is primarily from conventional utility equipment, superconductor technology represents significant long-term upside potential. superconductor technology high-temperature superconductors ai data centers electrical grid modernization commercialization earnings beat cloud infrastructure — Why American Superconductor Corporation Rallied in the First Half of 2026
  • commodity Oil Selloff 72 XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:No Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 717.7 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth
  • IF SMH reclaims strength + QQQ > 717.7 (昨日高点) THEN SHORT-cover / tactical LONG

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 717.7 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH
  • IF SMH continues lower + QQQ < 717.7 (昨日低点) THEN avoid dip-buy; SHORT semis

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 717.7 (昨日低点) and 717.7 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility
  • IF chip selloff continues without QQQ breakdown THEN WAIT

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 TQQQ
TQQQ ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + acceptable liquidity
SHORT Swing 54.0% 0.36% Reward/Risk 0.05 Entry Zone 66.00–66.35 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$70.74 $65.93 RS弱于QQQ -6.35% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation Geopolitical Risk · Macro Surprise Close above stop $70.74 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 AVGO SHORT Swing 42.0% 0.9% Reward/Risk 0.29 Entry Zone 362–364 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$374.45 $359.8 板块内相对强势 +1.34% · 半导体内领涨 +4.56% · 昨日弱势 -6.7% 延续下行 · VIX 走高 Geopolitical Risk · Macro Surprise Close above stop $374.45 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • SMH · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -3.22% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation
  • META · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.80% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • ARM · Pass · 半导体内领涨 +3.09% · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • NVDA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.53% · 半导体内领涨 +1.69% · News 8 (利空做空) · Volume 信号
  • AMD · Pass · 半导体内领涨 +3.34% · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%
Bias Strong Bear ★☆☆☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE
Win Prob
Ideal Entry (frozen)
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target
R:R
P&L
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.56 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -3.20%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Macro Surprise、Oil Selloff
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -5

Today's Biggest Risk

High Gap (-3.4%)

  • High Gap (-3.4%)
  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk / Macro Surprise Whipsaw
  • VIX Spike
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Chase
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release
  • Don't Fight Volatility

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction AMD · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $485.50–$506.75
Stop · Target $546.32 → $407.81 / T2 $391.5
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 AMD · Prior day -8.2% · 5D momentum -8.4%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $546.32 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 AMD:理想入场 $485.50–$506.75,止损 $546.32,目标 $407.81(约 +16.2%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-07-17-001 · AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds?

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (-0.11%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 13.5% +13.61%
UUP
QQQ -0.11% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →