30 秒看懂：这不是炒股 App，也不会帮你下单。它每天自动做一套「晨会 → 盘中检查 → 收盘复盘」的研究报告，供你阅读和决策参考。
你唯一必须做的事：每个交易日收盘后花约 5 分钟去核对——告诉系统今天猜对了还是猜错了。核对越多，Agent 才会越用越准。
首页「Morning 一页纸 · 决策卡」每天 5 行 + Hypothesis。下面是一个假例子，帮你理解每行含义：
NYSE 休市日（周末、法定假日）没有当日报告，这是正常的——系统不会生成 Driver、决策卡或 Step 更新。
此时请点首页的「上一交易日」链接，查看最近一份完整报告。休市期间的新闻摘要（如有）仅供参考，不构成交易决策。
Day 3
| 事件 | 预定 | 状态 | 实际值 | Consensus | Surprise | 典型影响（参考） | 实测反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP QoQ (Advance/2nd/Final) | 08:30 | ⏳ | — | 29,500 | — | GDP 意外强 → 收益率+ 美元+；弱则相反 | — |
H-2026-07-07-001Surprise：AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day
Lesson：AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量；SMH -4.8% + QQQ -1.6%：半导体拖累纳指
{
"date": "2026-07-07",
"features": {
"dgs10": 4.48,
"dgs2": null,
"vix": 15.94,
"vix_chg": 2.38,
"qqq_chg": -2.35,
"smh_chg": -5.32,
"nvda_chg": -0.39,
"spy_chg": -0.2,
"oil_chg": 0.94,
"dxy_chg": 0.08,
"breadth_proxy": 0.2857142857142857,
"qqq_gap": -1.17,
"news_headline_count": 36,
"news_bearish_ratio": 0.562,
"news_ai_mentions": 103,
"news_macro_mentions": 10,
"news_oil_mentions": 6,
"news_risk_mentions": 5
},
"regime": {
"label": "Macro Fear",
"confidence": 0.8
},
"hypothesis": {
"id": "H-2026-07-07-001",
"statement": "Macro is today's primary market driver",
"evidence": [
"VIX=15.9 (low fear)"
],
"counter_evidence": [
"Breadth 29% (narrow market)"
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"status": "待验证"
},
"morning": {
"bias": "Bear",
"total": -2,
"driver_type": "Macro",
"daily_driver": "GDP",
"best_opportunity": {
"direction": "SHORT",
"symbol": "TSLA",
"instrument": "ETF",
"confidence": 81,
"entry": "Below 412.0 (ORB低点)",
"stop": "419.8 (ORB高点)",
"target": "406.4 (预期低点)",
"targets": [
"406.4 (预期低点)"
],
"duration": "Intraday",
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.30%",
"昨日强势 +6.0% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +1.30% · 昨日强势 +6.0% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号",
"avoid": [],
"one_liner": "做空 TSLA：在 412.0 附近入场，目标 406.45，预期 +1.35%",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"expected_return_pct": 1.35,
"win_prob": 81.0,
"risk_reward": 0.72,
"final_score": 1.08,
"advisory": true,
"confidence_stars": "★★★★☆",
"entry_source": "orb_low",
"entry_price": 412.0,
"stop_source": "orb_high",
"stop_price": 419.77,
"target_source": "expected_low",
"target_price": 406.45,
"why_vs_runner_up": "TSLA RS +1.3% vs TQQQ -2.3%；ER 2.7% vs 1.2%；Win% 81 vs 54；relative strength",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.3,
"gap_pct": -0.63,
"beta_proxy": -0.1,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 2.38,
"prior_day_change_pct": 6.01
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(81%) × ER(2.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 415.69,
"orb_high": 419.77,
"orb_low": 412.0,
"prev_high": 419.55,
"prev_low": 390.5,
"prior_close": 417.11,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"target_action": "买入/平空仓",
"expected_move": "+1.35%",
"return_calculation": "(412.0-406.45)/412.0=1.35%",
"trade_summary_cn": "做空 TSLA：在 412.0 附近入场，目标 406.45，预期 +1.35%"
},
"best_trades": {
"primary": {
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "TSLA",
"direction": "SHORT",
"instrument": "ETF",
"confidence": 81,
"expected_move": "+1.35%",
"expected_return_pct": 1.35,
"win_prob": 81.0,
"risk_reward": 0.72,
"final_score": 1.08,
"trade_action": "Small",
"entry": "Below 412.0 (ORB低点)",
"stop": "419.8 (ORB高点)",
"target": "406.4 (预期低点)",
"targets": [
"406.4 (预期低点)"
],
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.30%",
"昨日强势 +6.0% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +1.30% · 昨日强势 +6.0% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号",
"expected_high": 428.78,
"expected_low": 406.45,
"expected_close": 428.78,
"current_price": 417.62,
"upside_pct": 2.67,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.30%",
"昨日强势 +6.0% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号"
],
"advisory": true,
"confidence_stars": "★★★★☆",
"entry_source": "orb_low",
"entry_price": 412.0,
"stop_source": "orb_high",
"stop_price": 419.77,
"target_source": "expected_low",
"target_price": 406.45,
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 415.69,
"orb_high": 419.77,
"orb_low": 412.0,
"prev_high": 419.55,
"prev_low": 390.5,
"prior_close": 417.11,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"why_vs_runner_up": "TSLA RS +1.3% vs TQQQ -2.3%；ER 2.7% vs 1.2%；Win% 81 vs 54；relative strength",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.3,
"gap_pct": -0.63,
"beta_proxy": -0.1,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 2.38,
"prior_day_change_pct": 6.01
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(81%) × ER(2.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"return_calculation": "(412.0-406.45)/412.0=1.35%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 2.67,
"target_action": "买入/平空仓",
"trade_summary_cn": "做空 TSLA：在 412.0 附近入场，目标 406.45，预期 +1.35%"
},
"secondary": null,
"watchlist": null,
"index_trade": "NO TRADE",
"threshold_message": null,
"stock_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "TSLA",
"direction": "SHORT",
"confidence": 81,
"expected_move": "+1.35%",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.30% · 昨日强势 +6.0% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号"
}
],
"advisory": true
},
"edges": {
"macro_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "今日有 GDP 发布",
"catalyst": "GDP"
},
"index_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "QQQ 走弱 -1.18%（做空 edge）"
},
"sector_edge": {
"edge": "NO",
"why": "板块相对强度不足"
},
"stock_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "MSFT RS+新闻+量能",
"symbol": "MSFT"
},
"advisory": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议"
},
"trade_candidates": [
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"win_prob": 81.0,
"expected_return_pct": 2.67,
"expected_high": 428.78,
"expected_low": 406.45,
"expected_close": 428.78,
"current_price": 417.62,
"upside_pct": 2.67,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.67,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"final_score": 1.08,
"trade_action": "Small",
"trade": "Small",
"gap_pct": -0.63,
"relative_strength": 1.3,
"prior_day_change_pct": 6.01,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.30%",
"昨日强势 +6.0% 今日 gap 可控",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.30% · 昨日强势 +6.0% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号",
"score": 11,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 1.3,
"gap_pct": -0.63,
"beta_proxy": -0.1,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 2.38,
"prior_day_change_pct": 6.01
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(81%) × ER(2.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "TSLA RS +1.3% vs TQQQ -2.3%；ER 2.7% vs 1.2%；Win% 81 vs 54；relative strength",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 1
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"win_prob": 54.0,
"expected_return_pct": 1.19,
"expected_high": 75.01,
"expected_low": 73.25,
"expected_close": 75.01,
"current_price": 74.13,
"upside_pct": 1.19,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.19,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"final_score": 0.32,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -3.57,
"relative_strength": -2.33,
"prior_day_change_pct": 4.74,
"why_factors": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -2.33%",
"昨日强势 +4.7% 今日 gap 可控",
"Volume 信号"
],
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.33% · 昨日强势 +4.7% 今日 gap 可控 · Volume 信号",
"score": 3,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -2.33,
"gap_pct": -3.57,
"beta_proxy": 2.97,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 2.38,
"prior_day_change_pct": 4.74
},
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(1.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 2
},
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"win_prob": 71.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.22,
"expected_high": 753.88,
"expected_low": 744.13,
"expected_close": 751.77,
"current_price": 750.13,
"upside_pct": 0.5,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 0.62,
"final_score": 0.08,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -0.34,
"relative_strength": 0.94,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.96,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +0.94%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.94% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 1,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.94,
"gap_pct": -0.34,
"beta_proxy": 0.2,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 2.38,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.96
},
"edge_type": "Relative Strength",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(71%) × ER(0.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 3
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"win_prob": 64.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.0,
"expected_high": 719.09,
"expected_low": 709.79,
"expected_close": 715.53,
"current_price": 715.51,
"upside_pct": 0.5,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 0.62,
"final_score": 0.0,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -1.17,
"relative_strength": 0.0,
"prior_day_change_pct": 1.61,
"why_factors": [
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 3",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "Gap 未过度延伸 · News 3 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 0,
"news_count": 3,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 0.0,
"gap_pct": -1.17,
"beta_proxy": 1.0,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 3,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 2.38,
"prior_day_change_pct": 1.61
},
"edge_type": "Index Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(64%) × ER(0.0%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 4
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"win_prob": 54.0,
"expected_return_pct": -0.33,
"expected_high": 192.6,
"expected_low": 190.11,
"expected_close": 191.01,
"current_price": 191.64,
"upside_pct": 0.5,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 0.62,
"final_score": 0.0,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -1.35,
"relative_strength": -1.37,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.93,
"why_factors": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -1.37%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 8",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -1.37% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 8 · Volume 信号",
"score": 0,
"news_count": 8,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -1.37,
"gap_pct": -1.35,
"beta_proxy": 2.16,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 8,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 2.38,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.93
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(-0.3%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 5
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"win_prob": 54.0,
"expected_return_pct": -0.58,
"expected_high": 588.72,
"expected_low": 581.1,
"expected_close": 582.41,
"current_price": 585.79,
"upside_pct": 0.5,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 0.62,
"final_score": 0.0,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -2.95,
"relative_strength": -2.51,
"prior_day_change_pct": 2.69,
"why_factors": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -2.51%",
"昨日强势 +2.7% 今日 gap 可控",
"Volume 信号",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -2.51% · 昨日强势 +2.7% 今日 gap 可控 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%",
"score": 0,
"news_count": 0,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": -2.51,
"gap_pct": -2.95,
"beta_proxy": 3.13,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 0,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 2.38,
"prior_day_change_pct": 2.69
},
"edge_type": "Relative Weakness",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(54%) × ER(-0.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "—",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 6
}
]
},
"intraday": {
"s5": {
"driver_still_valid": true,
"action": "Hold"
},
"s6": {
"trade_valid": true,
"action": "Hold"
},
"s7": {
"actual_driver": "AI Chip Selloff",
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.83,
"bond": 0.0,
"oil": 0.06,
"macro": 0.059,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {
"AI Chip Selloff": 0.836
}
}
}
},
"trade_plan": {},
"actual": {},
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.83,
"bond": 0.0,
"oil": 0.06,
"macro": 0.059,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {
"AI Chip Selloff": 0.836
}
},
"labels": {
"actual_driver": "AI Chip Selloff",
"agent_driver": "GDP",
"agent_driver_type": "Macro",
"corrected_driver_from_verify": null,
"driver_splits": {
"AI Chip Selloff": 0.8363962662084049
},
"hypothesis_correct": "对",
"scenario_primary": "B",
"scenario_actual": "B",
"scenario_correct": true,
"trade_recommendation": "TSLA",
"trade_direction": "SHORT",
"primary_symbol": "TSLA",
"predicted_return_pct": 1.35,
"prediction_error_pct": null
},
"surprise": "AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day",
"lesson": "AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量；SMH -4.8% + QQQ -1.6%：半导体拖累纳指",
"playbook_refs": [
"Case-3"
],
"bayesian_drivers": {
"AI": 0.9979,
"Bond": 0.0003,
"Macro": 0.0014,
"Oil": 0.0002,
"Risk": 0.0003
},
"data_gaps": []
}