Market Case · 2026-07-02

{
  "date": "2026-07-02",
  "features": {
    "dgs10": 4.48,
    "dgs2": null,
    "vix": 15.81,
    "vix_chg": -2.11,
    "qqq_chg": -1.73,
    "smh_chg": -4.54,
    "nvda_chg": -1.39,
    "spy_chg": -0.13,
    "oil_chg": 0.78,
    "dxy_chg": -0.02,
    "breadth_proxy": 0.42857142857142855,
    "qqq_gap": 0.056538466842268965,
    "news_headline_count": 37,
    "news_bearish_ratio": 0.167,
    "news_ai_mentions": 82,
    "news_macro_mentions": 9,
    "news_oil_mentions": 2,
    "news_risk_mentions": 9
  },
  "regime": {
    "label": "AI Expansion",
    "confidence": 0.82
  },
  "hypothesis": {
    "id": "H-2026-07-02-001",
    "statement": "弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售？（Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险）",
    "evidence": [
      "VIX=15.8 (low fear)"
    ],
    "counter_evidence": [],
    "confidence": 0.78,
    "status": "待验证"
  },
  "morning": {
    "bias": "Neutral",
    "total": -1
  },
  "intraday": {
    "s5": {
      "driver_still_valid": true,
      "action": "Hold"
    },
    "s6": {
      "trade_valid": false,
      "action": "N/A"
    },
    "s7": {
      "actual_driver": "NFP + AI Chip Selloff",
      "attribution": {
        "ai": 0.6,
        "bond": 0.0,
        "oil": 0.02,
        "macro": 0.4,
        "other": 0.0,
        "splits": {
          "AI Chip Selloff": 0.6,
          "NFP": 0.4
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "trade_plan": {},
  "actual": {},
  "attribution": {
    "ai": 0.6,
    "bond": 0.0,
    "oil": 0.02,
    "macro": 0.4,
    "other": 0.0,
    "splits": {
      "AI Chip Selloff": 0.6,
      "NFP": 0.4
    }
  },
  "labels": {
    "actual_driver": "NFP",
    "agent_driver": "NFP + AI Chip Selloff",
    "corrected_driver_from_verify": "NFP",
    "driver_splits": {
      "AI Chip Selloff": 0.6,
      "NFP": 0.4
    },
    "hypothesis_correct": "错",
    "scenario_primary": "C",
    "scenario_actual": "B",
    "scenario_correct": false
  },
  "surprise": "Split attribution: NFP 40% + Chip Selloff 60%",
  "lesson": "【核对纠正】\n2026-07-02: P2 Agent 说「Driver：AI Chip Selloff」→ 用户纠正：真正最大的Driver：\r\n\r\nAI Chip Selloff\r\n\r\n苹果只是Noise。\r\n\r\n昨天真正决定指数的是：\r\n\r\nMeta关于AI算力利用的消息引发全球AI和半导体抛售，费城半导体指数重挫约5.5%，压制Nasdaq；与此同时，疲弱的就业数据压低利率预期，支撑Dow和价值股，因此形成明显分化。\r\n\r\n所以：\r\n\r\nDriver：\r\n\r\nAI Chip Selloff\r\n\r\n不是App\n2026-07-02: P3 Agent 说「本周关键事件：NFP（今日）→ FOMC/ECB（次日，节前）」→ 用户纠正：应该改成\r\n\r\nNFP\n2026-07-02: P10 Agent 说「NFP + AI Chip Selloff」→ 用户纠正：NFP\r\n\r\n不是FOMC。\n2026-07-02: P15 Agent 说「最可能 Scenario：B」→ 用户纠正：Scenario\r\n\r\n应该围绕\r\n\r\nNFP\r\n\r\n而不是FOMC。\r\n\r\n例如：\r\n\r\nScenario A\r\n\r\nNFP弱 + Yield继续跌\r\n\r\n→ Growth反弹\r\n\r\nScenario B\r\n\r\nChip继续杀\r\n\r\n→ Nasdaq继续弱\r\n\r\nScenario C\r\n\r\nDow继续Carry Index\r\n\r\n→ SPY横盘\n2026-07-02: P17 Agent 说「Hypothesis：H-2026-07-02-001 · 待验证」→ 用户纠正：Hypothesis：\r\n\r\n不是：\r\n\r\nAI Lead Today\r\n\r\n因为昨天已经知道AI在跌。\r\n\r\nMorning真正Hypothesis应该是：\r\n\r\n弱于预期的NFP是否足以抵消AI板块抛售，推动成长股反弹？\r\n\r\n这是当天最值得验证的问题。\n2026-07-02: S7 Agent 说「真正 Driver：NFP + AI Chip Selloff · Attribution：AI 60% · Bond 0% · Hypothesis：部分对 · Scenario C→B 未命中」→ 用户纠正：真正Driver我会写：\r\n\r\nDriver Attribution\r\n\r\nNFP：\r\n\r\n40%\r\n\r\nChip Selloff：\r\n\r\n60%\r\n\r\n因为：\r\n\r\n如果没有NFP\r\n\r\nQQQ会跌更多。\r\n\r\n如果没有Chip\r\n\r\nQQQ不会跌。\r\n\r\n两个共同决定。\n\n当长期 AI Expansion Regime 与短期 Macro 利率利好（弱 NFP）冲突时，半导体风险仍可主导 Nasdaq；Dow/价值股可因利率改善走强；SMH -4.5% + QQQ -1.7%：半导体拖累纳指",
  "playbook_refs": [
    "Case-1"
  ],
  "bayesian_drivers": {
    "AI": 0.9157,
    "Bond": 0.0143,
    "Macro": 0.0488,
    "Oil": 0.0083,
    "Risk": 0.013
  },
  "data_gaps": []
}