Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 61
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ META SHORT META ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range 67.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 81.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 changed vs Morning: META SHORT → ARM SHORT · ADVISORY

Primary changed vs Morning Ideal

Morning: META SHORT · ACTIVE

↻ ARM SHORT · Ideal Entry Zone 290–292 · Live ER +5.11% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★★☆ ARM SHORT ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 84.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ META SHORT 67.0% Trade
  • ★★★★☆ AMD SHORT 84.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 59.0% Avoid

#1:META ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    US Stocks Decline as Middle East Stalemate Pushes Oil Higher

  2. Secondary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 5 oil headlines

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 US Stocks Decline as Middle East Stalemate Pushes Oil Higher
  • commodity Oil Selloff 78 XLE +0.0% · 5 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 741.1 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 741.1 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 741.1 (昨日低点) and 741.1 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 META
META ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range
SHORT Intraday 67.0% 1.52% Reward/Risk 1.97 Entry Zone 730.18–730.54 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$736.0 $719.23 RS弱于QQQ -5.66% · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 Geopolitical Risk · Oil Selloff Close above stop $736.0 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • ARM · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -2.37% · RS弱于SMH -2.50% · VIX 走高
  • AMD · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.53% · RS弱于SMH -1.66% · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • TSLA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.66% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • MU · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.25% · RS弱于SMH -1.38% · News 1 (利空做空) · VIX 走高
  • AVGO · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.51% · RS弱于SMH -0.64% · Gap 未过度延伸 · VIX 走高
Bias Neutral ★★★☆☆
Best Trade META · SHORT · Stock · ER +1.52%
Direction SHORT Intraday
Win Prob 67.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 730.18–730.54 Below 730.5 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $730.76 Dist -0.05% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +1.52%
Stop / Target $736.0 → $719.23
R:R Reward/Risk 1.97 · Risk:Reward 1:0.51
P&L +$189.21 / -$95.88
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 67%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS弱于QQQ -5.66% · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号

#1:META ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength -5.66 vs 1.8
  2. Largest Expected Range 4.44 vs 3.32

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +12.0
  • Catalyst -5.0
  • Volume +4.0
  • Macro +6.0
  • Total 67.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$189.21
失败 Loss -$95.88
每股价差 Reward $11.13 / Risk $5.64 Reward/Risk 1.97 · Risk:Reward 1:0.51

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% ↓ Position 100.0% ↓ 1 unit(s) ↓ Max Loss $95.88

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $730.36 Confidence 89 vwap
  • ✓ ORB Low $730.18 30%
  • ✓ VWAP $730.54 70%
Stop $736.0 Confidence 77 orb_high
  • ✓ ORB High $736.0 100%
Target $719.23 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • ✓ Expected Close $719.23 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • ARM (#2)
    • Win% 67 vs 76
    • ER 1.5% vs 1.1%
    • Score 0.53 vs 0.43
    • RS -5.7% vs -2.4%
    • R:R 1.97 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • AMD (#3)
    • Win% 67 vs 76
    • ER 1.5% vs 0.8%
    • Score 0.53 vs 0.3
    • RS -5.7% vs -1.5%
    • R:R 1.97 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TSLA (#4)
    • Win% 67 vs 72
    • ER 1.5% vs 0.5%
    • Score 0.53 vs 0.29
    • RS -5.7% vs -1.7%
    • R:R 1.97 vs 1.55
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • MU (#5)
    • Win% 67 vs 71
    • ER 1.5% vs 0.7%
    • Score 0.53 vs 0.24
    • RS -5.7% vs -1.2%
    • R:R 1.97 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • AVGO (#6)
    • Win% 67 vs 81
    • ER 1.5% vs 0.3%
    • Score 0.53 vs 0.11
    • RS -5.7% vs -0.5%
    • R:R 1.97 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.08 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.36%
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -1

Today's Biggest Risk

Extended Gap on META

  • Extended Gap on META
  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk / Oil Selloff Whipsaw
  • VIX Spike
  • Don't Buy First Green Candle
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release
  • Don't Fight Volatility

Expected Value

EV $+95 (win +$189 @ 67.0% · loss -$96)

「做空 META:在 730.36 附近入场,目标 719.23,预期 +1.52%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $713.77–$730.76
Stop · Target $684.16 → $787.79 / T2 $817.39
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +13.0%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $684.16 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 META:理想入场 $713.77–$730.76,止损 $684.16,目标 $787.79(约 +8.1%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-28-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Stock Edge

Why vs #2:META RS -5.7% vs ARM -2.4%;ER 1.6% vs 1.1%;higher beta (16.7 vs 7.6);relative weakness play

final = win_prob(67%) × ER(1.6%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS弱于QQQ -5.66%
  • News 1 (利空做空)
  • Volume 信号
  • VIX 走高

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (1.14%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 0.61% -0.53% ▼
UUP 0.98% -0.16% ▼
QQQ 1.14% +0.00% —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →