Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 30
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ MU LONG MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 77.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLK Avoid 66.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 unchanged vs Morning: MU · ADVISORY

Morning: MU LONG · TRIGGERED

MU LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 921–926 · Live ER +2.35% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ MU LONG MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + highest probability + best reward/risk 77.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid

#1:MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  2. Secondary Momentum — AI Momentum

    SMH +2.0% leading

  3. Tertiary Momentum — Index Momentum

    QQQ +0.8%

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Trade Policy

  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 718.5 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 718.5 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 718.5 (昨日低点) and 718.5 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 MU
MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
LONG Swing 77.0% 2.07% Reward/Risk 2.26 Entry Zone 906–911 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$900.09 $927.18 RS vs QQQ +4.16% · RS vs SMH +3.00% · News 1 · Volume 信号 Trade Policy Close below stop $900.09

Watchlist

  • NVDA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.13% · RS vs SMH +0.97% · News 7 · Volume 信号
  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.16% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.08 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.54% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.07 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • AMD · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.86% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.07 < 0.15(EV门禁)
  • XLK · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.75% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.07 < 0.15(EV门禁)
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade MU · LONG · Stock · ER +2.07%
Direction LONG Swing
Win Prob 77.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 906–911 Above 908.4 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $911.73 Dist +0.37% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +2.07%
Stop / Target $900.09 → $927.18
R:R Reward/Risk 2.26 · Risk:Reward 1:0.44
P&L +$225.36 / -$99.72
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Trade Policy
Confidence 77%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS vs QQQ +4.16% · RS vs SMH +3.00% · News 1

#1:MU ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength 4.16 vs 2.13
  2. Largest Expected Range 3.38 vs 1.6
  3. Highest Probability 77.0 vs 77.0
  4. Best Risk Reward 2.26 vs 1.0

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +18.0
  • Catalyst +5.0
  • Volume +4.0
  • Total 77.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$225.36
失败 Loss -$99.72
每股价差 Reward $18.78 / Risk $8.31 Reward/Risk 2.26 · Risk:Reward 1:0.44

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 100.0% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $99.72

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $908.4 Confidence 89 vwap
  • VWAP $908.4 70%
  • Above Current $911.73 30%
Stop $900.09 Confidence 77 orb_low
  • ORB Low $900.09 100%
Target $927.18 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $927.18 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • NVDA (#2)
    • ER 2.1% vs 0.8%
    • Score 0.65 vs 0.31
    • RS +4.2% vs +2.1%
    • R:R 2.26 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • SMH (#3)
    • Win% 77 vs 66
    • ER 2.1% vs 0.5%
    • Score 0.65 vs 0.17
    • RS +4.2% vs +1.2%
    • R:R 2.26 vs 0.63
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TQQQ (#4)
    • Win% 77 vs 66
    • ER 2.1% vs 0.5%
    • Score 0.65 vs 0.16
    • RS +4.2% vs +1.5%
    • R:R 2.26 vs 0.62
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • AMD (#5)
    • Win% 77 vs 66
    • ER 2.1% vs 0.3%
    • Score 0.65 vs 0.1
    • RS +4.2% vs +0.9%
    • R:R 2.26 vs 0.62
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • XLK (#6)
    • Win% 77 vs 66
    • ER 2.1% vs 0.3%
    • Score 0.65 vs 0.09
    • RS +4.2% vs +0.8%
    • R:R 2.26 vs 0.62
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.16 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Extended Gap on MU

  • Extended Gap on MU
  • Trade Policy Whipsaw
  • Don't Buy First Green Candle
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Expected Value

EV $+151 (win +$225 @ 77.0% · loss -$100)

「做多 MU:在 908.4 附近入场,目标 927.18,预期 +2.07%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $219.30–$223.89
Stop · Target $211.47 → $238.89 / T2 $246.72
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +2.2%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $211.47 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 NVDA:理想入场 $219.30–$223.89,止损 $211.47,目标 $238.89(约 +7.0%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-13-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Trade Policy 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Stock Edge

Why vs #2:MU RS +4.2% vs NVDA +2.1%;ER 1.7% vs 0.8%;higher beta (6.1 vs 3.6);relative strength

final = win_prob(77%) × ER(1.7%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS vs QQQ +4.16%
  • RS vs SMH +3.00%
  • News 1
  • Volume 信号

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (-0.21%)

Driver「Political — Trade Policy」→ SMH, NVDA, SPY

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
SMH -0.55% -0.34%
NVDA 1.24% +1.45%
SPY -0.35% -0.14%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →