Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 28
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ ARM SHORT ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk 69.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 51.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 53.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AAPL Avoid 61.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 71.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 unchanged vs Morning: ARM · ADVISORY

Morning: ARM SHORT · READY

ARM SHORT · Ideal Entry Zone 270–272 · Live ER +1.52% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ ARM SHORT ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range 69.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 74.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 79.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 51.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AAPL Avoid 61.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 75.0% Avoid

#1:ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    Stocks Climb as Oil Retreats on Iran Deal Hopes: Markets Wrap

  2. Secondary Macro — Macro Surprise

    ism about ai hype and concerns about limited upside potential, increased competition from tech companies developing their own chips, and vulnerability to a potential tech bubble collapse. nvidia ai chips valuation peg multiple tech bubble semiconductor competition growth stocks — Is Nvidia Stock Still a Good Buy at $220?

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Macro Surprise + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Stocks Climb as Oil Retreats on Iran Deal Hopes: Markets Wrap
  • breaking Macro Surprise 88 ism about ai hype and concerns about limited upside potential, increased competition from tech companies developing their own chips, and vulnerability to a potential tech bubble collapse. nvidia ai chips valuation peg multiple tech bubble semiconductor competition growth stocks — Is Nvidia Stock Still a Good Buy at $220?
  • commodity Oil Selloff 72 XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 723.0 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 723.0 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 723.0 (昨日低点) and 723.0 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk
SHORT Intraday 69.0% 1.65% Reward/Risk 13.97 Entry Zone 270.60–271.24 EXPIRED
Abandon today
$271.24 $266.45 RS弱于QQQ -4.24% · RS弱于SMH -2.96% · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Macro Surprise Close above stop $271.24 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • AMD · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -2.18% · RS弱于SMH -0.90% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • NVDA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.79% · RS弱于SMH -0.51% · News 3 (利空做空) · Volume 信号
  • SMH · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.28% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation
  • AAPL · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.35% · News 2 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • MU · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.12% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
Bias Neutral ★★★☆☆
Best Trade ARM · SHORT · Stock · ER +1.65%
Direction SHORT Intraday
Win Prob 69.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 270.60–271.24 Below 270.6 (现价) current
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $270.60 Dist +0.12% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +1.65%
Stop / Target $271.24 → $266.45
R:R Reward/Risk 13.97 · Risk:Reward 1:0.07
P&L +$1394.64 / -$99.84
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)
Confidence 69%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS弱于QQQ -4.24% · RS弱于SMH -2.96% · News 1 (利空做空)

#1:ARM ranked #1 because largest expected range + best reward/risk

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Largest Expected Range 3.06 vs 2.07
  2. Best Risk Reward 13.97 vs 2.04

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +20.0
  • Catalyst -5.0
  • Volume +4.0
  • Total 69.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$1394.64
失败 Loss -$99.84
每股价差 Reward $4.47 / Risk $0.32 Reward/Risk 13.97 · Risk:Reward 1:0.07

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% Position 100.0% 1 unit(s) Max Loss $99.84

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $270.92 Confidence 55 current
Stop $271.24 Confidence 77 orb_high
  • ORB High $271.24 100%
Target $266.45 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • Expected Close $266.45 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • AMD (#2)
    • Win% 69 vs 74
    • ER 1.6% vs 0.7%
    • Score 0.53 vs 0.29
    • RS -4.2% vs -2.2%
    • R:R 13.97 vs 1.11
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • NVDA (#3)
    • Win% 69 vs 51
    • ER 1.6% vs 0.6%
    • Score 0.53 vs 0.28
    • RS -4.2% vs -1.8%
    • R:R 13.97 vs 1.79
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • SMH (#4)
    • Win% 69 vs 53
    • ER 1.6% vs 0.4%
    • Score 0.53 vs 0.2
    • RS -4.2% vs -1.3%
    • R:R 13.97 vs 2.04
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • AAPL (#5)
    • Win% 69 vs 61
    • ER 1.6% vs 0.4%
    • Score 0.53 vs 0.19
    • RS -4.2% vs -1.4%
    • R:R 13.97 vs 1.6
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • MU (#6)
    • Win% 69 vs 71
    • ER 1.6% vs 0.3%
    • Score 0.53 vs 0.16
    • RS -4.2% vs -1.1%
    • R:R 13.97 vs 1.6
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.02 未达阈值
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Macro Surprise、Oil Selloff
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -1

Today's Biggest Risk

Extended Gap on ARM

  • Extended Gap on ARM
  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk (Iran) / Macro Surprise Whipsaw
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Buy First Green Candle
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Expected Value

EV $+931 (win +$1395 @ 69.0% · loss -$100)

「做空 ARM:在 270.92 附近入场,目标 266.45,预期 +1.65%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $215.30–$219.95
Stop · Target $209.05 → $235.24 / T2 $243.21
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +5.3%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $209.05 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 NVDA:理想入场 $215.30–$219.95,止损 $209.05,目标 $235.24(约 +7.3%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-08-11-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Relative Weakness

Why vs #2:ARM RS -4.2% vs AMD -2.2%;ER 1.5% vs 0.7%;relative weakness play

final = win_prob(69%) × ER(1.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS弱于QQQ -4.24%
  • RS弱于SMH -2.96%
  • News 1 (利空做空)
  • Volume 信号

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (-0.92%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 11.32% +12.24%
UUP -0.25% +0.67%
QQQ -0.92% +0.00%

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →