30 秒看懂：这不是炒股 App，也不会帮你下单。它每天自动做一套「晨会 → 盘中检查 → 收盘复盘」的研究报告，供你阅读和决策参考。
你唯一必须做的事：每个交易日收盘后花约 5 分钟去核对——告诉系统今天猜对了还是猜错了。核对越多，Agent 才会越用越准。
首页「Morning 一页纸 · 决策卡」每天 5 行 + Hypothesis。下面是一个假例子，帮你理解每行含义：
NYSE 休市日（周末、法定假日）没有当日报告，这是正常的——系统不会生成 Driver、决策卡或 Step 更新。
此时请点首页的「上一交易日」链接，查看最近一份完整报告。休市期间的新闻摘要（如有）仅供参考，不构成交易决策。
Day 39
H-2026-08-26-001Surprise：AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day
Lesson：AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量；Morning Hypothesis 被 Chip/Macro 冲突推翻——复盘 P10/P15 权重
{
"date": "2026-08-26",
"features": {
"dgs10": 4.7,
"dgs2": null,
"vix": 15.62,
"vix_chg": 1.1,
"qqq_chg": 0.91,
"smh_chg": 1.73,
"nvda_chg": 0.81,
"spy_chg": 0.0,
"oil_chg": 0.0,
"dxy_chg": 0.1,
"breadth_proxy": 0.5714285714285714,
"qqq_gap": 0.41,
"news_headline_count": 31,
"news_bearish_ratio": 0.133,
"news_ai_mentions": 49,
"news_macro_mentions": 7,
"news_oil_mentions": 4,
"news_risk_mentions": 2
},
"regime": {
"label": "AI Expansion",
"confidence": 0.82
},
"hypothesis": {
"id": "H-2026-08-26-001",
"statement": "Inflation is today's primary market driver",
"evidence": [
"VIX=15.6 (low fear)"
],
"counter_evidence": [],
"confidence": 0.83,
"status": "待验证"
},
"morning": {
"bias": "Neutral",
"total": 1,
"driver_type": "Political",
"daily_driver": "Geopolitical Risk",
"best_opportunity": {
"direction": "NO TRADE",
"symbol": "—",
"instrument": "—",
"horizon": "—",
"confidence": 45,
"entry": "—",
"stop": "—",
"target": "—",
"targets": [],
"duration": "—",
"why": [
"今日无任何标的达到交易阈值"
],
"why_chain": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"avoid": [],
"one_liner": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"advisory": true
},
"best_trades": {
"primary": null,
"secondary": null,
"watchlist": null,
"index_trade": "NO TRADE",
"p16_gate": "No Trade",
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"stock_trades": [],
"top_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "AMD",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Intraday",
"confidence": 77,
"confidence_stars": "★★★☆☆",
"expected_move": "+0.61%",
"expected_return_pct": 0.61,
"win_prob": 77.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 77.0,
"raw_total": 77.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"risk_reward": 0.84,
"final_score": 0.6,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"relative_strength": 4.03,
"entry": "Above 481.7 (ORB高点)",
"entry_source": "orb_high",
"entry_price": 481.68,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 480.23,
"high": 483.13,
"mid": 481.68,
"anchors": [
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB高点",
"price": 481.68
}
],
"display": "Entry Zone 480–483",
"entry_source": "orb_high",
"tolerance_pct": 0.3
},
"stop": "478.2 (ORB低点)",
"stop_source": "orb_low",
"stop_price": 478.2,
"target": "484.6 (预期收盘)",
"target_source": "expected_close",
"target_price": 484.6,
"targets": [
"484.6 (预期收盘)"
],
"level_anchors": {
"vwap": 479.78,
"orb_high": 481.68,
"orb_low": 478.2,
"prev_high": 456.75,
"prev_low": 456.75,
"prior_close": 456.75,
"orb_from_minute": true
},
"levels_valid": true,
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +4.03%",
"RS vs SMH +3.01%",
"News 1",
"Volume 信号",
"Geometric upside 0.61% < soft 1.5%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +4.03% · RS vs SMH +3.01% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
"why_vs_runner_up": "AMD RS +4.0% vs META +3.0%；ER 1.6% vs 0.8%；Win% 77 vs 66；higher beta (10.0 vs 7.6)；relative strength",
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 4.03,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.01,
"relative_weakness_score": -5.84,
"gap_pct": 4.75,
"beta_proxy": 9.96,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 1.1,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(77%) × ER(1.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"expected_high": 484.6,
"expected_low": 469.83,
"expected_close": 484.6,
"current_price": 477.21,
"upside_pct": 1.55,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.55,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +4.03%",
"RS vs SMH +3.01%",
"News 1",
"Volume 信号",
"Geometric upside 0.61% < soft 1.5%"
],
"why_today": "RS vs QQQ +4.03% · RS vs SMH +3.01% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
"gap_pct": 4.75,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.84,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.19,
"reward_per_share": 2.92,
"risk_per_share": 3.48,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.84",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.19",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.84 · Risk:Reward 1:1.19",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk",
"invalidation": "Close below stop $478.2 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion",
"advisory": true,
"level_reasons": {
"entry": {
"price": 481.68,
"source": "orb_high",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 479.78,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
},
{
"source": "orb_high",
"label": "ORB High",
"price": 481.68,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
},
"stop": {
"price": 478.2,
"source": "orb_low",
"confidence": 89,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "orb_low",
"label": "ORB Low",
"price": 478.2,
"weight_pct": 70.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
},
{
"source": "vwap",
"label": "VWAP",
"price": 479.78,
"weight_pct": 30.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": false
}
]
},
"target": {
"price": 484.6,
"source": "expected_close",
"confidence": 77,
"reasons": [
{
"source": "expected_close",
"label": "Expected Close",
"price": 484.6,
"weight_pct": 100.0,
"matched": true,
"primary": true
}
]
}
},
"return_calculation": "(484.6-481.68)/481.68=0.61%",
"heuristic_expected_return_pct": 1.55,
"target_action": "卖出/获利",
"trade_summary_cn": "做多 AMD：在 481.68 附近入场，目标 484.6，预期 +0.61%",
"expected_r": 0.4168,
"rr_below_hard_min": true,
"trade_economics": {
"account_size": 10000.0,
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"shares": 28,
"contracts": 0,
"max_loss_usd": 97.44,
"win_usd": 81.76,
"loss_usd": 97.44,
"expected_value_usd": 40.54,
"risk_per_share": 3.48,
"reward_per_share": 2.92,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.84,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.19,
"reward_per_share": 2.92,
"risk_per_share": 3.48,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.84",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.19",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.84 · Risk:Reward 1:1.19",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"size_label": "None",
"display": "$10,000 → Win +$82 / Loss -$97"
},
"position_sizing": {
"risk_pct": 1.0,
"position_pct": 100.0,
"contracts": 0,
"shares": 28,
"max_loss_usd": 97.44,
"size_label": "None",
"display": "Risk 1.0% → Position 100.0% → 28 unit(s) → Max Loss $97.44"
},
"why_wins_today": [
{
"rank": 1,
"dimension": "relative_strength",
"label": "Highest Relative Strength",
"primary_value": 4.03,
"runner_up_value": 2.97,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 2,
"dimension": "expected_range",
"label": "Largest Expected Range",
"primary_value": 3.1,
"runner_up_value": 2.15,
"wins": true
},
{
"rank": 3,
"dimension": "win_prob",
"label": "Highest Probability",
"primary_value": 77.0,
"runner_up_value": 77.0,
"wins": true
}
],
"why_not_alternatives": [
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 2,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 66",
"ER 0.6% vs 0.8%",
"Score 0.6 vs 0.25",
"RS +4.0% vs +3.0%",
"R:R 0.84 vs 0.54"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over META: Win% 77 vs 66 · ER 0.6% vs 0.8% · Score 0.6 vs 0.25 · RS +4.0% vs +3.0% · R:R 0.84 vs 0.54"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 3,
"reasons": [
"ER 0.6% vs 0.6%",
"Score 0.6 vs 0.24",
"RS +4.0% vs +1.7%",
"R:R 0.84 vs 0.78"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over NVDA: ER 0.6% vs 0.6% · Score 0.6 vs 0.24 · RS +4.0% vs +1.7% · R:R 0.84 vs 0.78"
},
{
"symbol": "MU",
"rank": 4,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 71",
"ER 0.6% vs 0.5%",
"Score 0.6 vs 0.18",
"RS +4.0% vs +1.5%",
"R:R 0.84 vs 0.67"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over MU: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 0.6% vs 0.5% · Score 0.6 vs 0.18 · RS +4.0% vs +1.5% · R:R 0.84 vs 0.67"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 5,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 66",
"ER 0.6% vs 0.3%",
"Score 0.6 vs 0.12",
"RS +4.0% vs +1.0%",
"R:R 0.84 vs 0.62"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over SMH: Win% 77 vs 66 · ER 0.6% vs 0.3% · Score 0.6 vs 0.12 · RS +4.0% vs +1.0% · R:R 0.84 vs 0.62"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 6,
"reasons": [
"Win% 77 vs 71",
"ER 0.6% vs 0.3%",
"Score 0.6 vs 0.09",
"RS +4.0% vs +0.9%",
"R:R 0.84 vs 0.63"
],
"summary": "Why AMD over TQQQ: Win% 77 vs 71 · ER 0.6% vs 0.3% · Score 0.6 vs 0.09 · RS +4.0% vs +0.9% · R:R 0.84 vs 0.63"
}
],
"rank_summary": "AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"calibration": {
"calibrated_win_prob": 77.0,
"sample_size": 0,
"confidence_interval": null,
"source": "rules_fallback",
"match_quality": "insufficient",
"win_prob_source": "rules",
"disclaimer": "No historical matches; using rules breakdown"
},
"ev_distribution": {
"expected_value_usd": 40.54,
"win_scenario_usd": 81.76,
"loss_scenario_usd": 97.44,
"win_prob_pct": 77.0,
"display": "EV $+41 (win +$82 @ 77.0% · loss -$97)"
},
"entry_status": {
"current_price": 477.21,
"ideal_entry": 481.68,
"distance_pct": -0.93,
"remaining_er_pct": 1.55,
"live_expected_return_pct": 1.55,
"new_plan": null,
"alternate_entry": null,
"advisory": true,
"advisory_tag": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议",
"zone_low": 480.23,
"zone_high": 483.13,
"miss_threshold_pct": 1.0,
"status": "PREMARKET",
"status_reason": "Premarket Ideal Entry — plan not yet live",
"action_hint": "Entry still valid"
}
}
],
"watchlist_items": [
{
"symbol": "META",
"rank": 2,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +2.97% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.02 < 0.20（EV门禁）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"rank": 3,
"win_prob": 77.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.63,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.70% · RS vs SMH +0.68% · News 8 · Volume 信号",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "MU",
"rank": 4,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.48% · News 2 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.19 < 0.20（EV门禁）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"rank": 5,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.02% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.07 < 0.20（EV门禁）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
},
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"rank": 6,
"win_prob": 71.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.27,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +0.87% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.16 < 0.20（EV门禁）",
"note": "Monitor — below trade threshold"
}
],
"advisory": true,
"swing": {
"symbol": "META",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"horizon": "Swing",
"duration": "Swing (days–weeks)",
"confidence": 71,
"entry": "Near 576.4 (swing zone)",
"entry_source": "swing_zone",
"entry_price": 576.43,
"entry_zone": {
"low": 568.22,
"high": 578.16,
"mid": 576.43,
"display": "$568.22–$578.16",
"source": "swing_pullback"
},
"stop": "551.8 (1.75xATR)",
"stop_source": "1.75xATR",
"stop_price": 551.81,
"target": "609.2 (T1 ~5.7%)",
"target_source": "2xATR_or_5pct",
"target_price": 609.25,
"targets": [
{
"price": 609.25,
"label": "T1",
"pct": 5.69
},
{
"price": 634.07,
"label": "T2",
"pct": 10.0
}
],
"expected_return_pct": 5.69,
"expected_move": "+5.69%",
"risk_reward": 1.33,
"win_prob": 66.0,
"final_score": 0.25,
"swing_quality": 5.8,
"atr": 16.4121,
"atr_source": "ATR14",
"level_formula": "stop=1.5–2×ATR or prior-week extreme; T1=max(5%, 2×ATR); T2=min(15%, max(10%, 3×ATR))",
"current_price": 578.16,
"why": [
"高流动性波段标的 META",
"Prior day +0.0%",
"5D momentum +4.8%",
"RS vs QQQ +2.97%",
"Swing score 5.8"
],
"why_chain": "高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +4.8% · RS vs QQQ +2.97%",
"invalidation": "Close beyond stop $551.81 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)",
"trade_summary_cn": "波段做多 META：理想入场 $568.22–$578.16，止损 $551.81，目标 $609.25（约 +5.7%），持仓天数–数周",
"one_liner": "波段做多 META：理想入场 $568.22–$578.16，止损 $551.81，目标 $609.25（约 +5.7%），持仓天数–数周",
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"advisory": true,
"label": "长线 · Swing Trade",
"separate_from_intraday": true
}
},
"edges": {
"macro_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "今日有重大催化剂（含地缘/突发）：Geopolitical Risk、Macro Surprise、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy",
"catalyst": "Geopolitical Risk、Macro Surprise、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy"
},
"index_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "QQQ 盘前/开盘 +0.44%"
},
"sector_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "SMH 领先 QQQ +1.03%",
"sector": "Semiconductor"
},
"stock_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "NVDA RS+新闻+量能",
"symbol": "NVDA"
},
"advisory": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议"
},
"trade_candidates": [
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"win_prob": 77.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 18.0
},
{
"factor": "Catalyst",
"key": "catalyst",
"points": 5.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 77.0,
"raw_total": 77.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 1.55,
"expected_high": 484.6,
"expected_low": 469.83,
"expected_close": 484.6,
"current_price": 477.21,
"upside_pct": 1.55,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.55,
"risk_reward": 1.0,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 1.0,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.0,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 1.00",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"display": "Reward/Risk 1.00 · Risk:Reward 1:1.00",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
"expected_r": 0.54,
"final_score": 0.6,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 4.75,
"relative_strength": 4.03,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.01,
"relative_weakness_score": -5.84,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +4.03%",
"RS vs SMH +3.01%",
"News 1",
"Volume 信号",
"Geometric upside 0.61% < soft 1.5%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +4.03% · RS vs SMH +3.01% · News 1 · Volume 信号",
"score": 6,
"news_count": 1,
"factor_breakdown": {
"relative_strength_vs_qqq": 4.03,
"relative_strength_vs_smh": 3.01,
"relative_weakness_score": -5.84,
"gap_pct": 4.75,
"beta_proxy": 9.96,
"volume_signal": true,
"news_count": 1,
"extended_gap_penalty": 0.0,
"vix_change_pct": 1.1,
"prior_day_change_pct": 0.0
},
"edge_type": "Stock Edge",
"score_formula_display": "final = win_prob(77%) × ER(1.5%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100",
"rr_weight": 0.5,
"why_vs_runner_up": "AMD RS +4.0% vs META +3.0%；ER 1.6% vs 0.8%；Win% 77 vs 66；higher beta (10.0 vs 7.6)；relative strength",
"advisory": true,
"rank": 1,
"direction": "LONG"
},
{
"symbol": "META",
"win_prob": 66.0,
"win_prob_breakdown": {
"components": [
{
"factor": "Base",
"key": "base",
"points": 50.0
},
{
"factor": "RS",
"key": "rs",
"points": 12.0
},
{
"factor": "Volume",
"key": "volume",
"points": 4.0
}
],
"total": 66.0,
"raw_total": 66.0,
"was_clamped": false
},
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"expected_high": 582.51,
"expected_low": 570.05,
"expected_close": 582.51,
"current_price": 578.16,
"upside_pct": 0.75,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.4,
"risk_reward": 0.54,
"rr_display": {
"reward_risk_ratio": 0.54,
"risk_reward_ratio": 1.85,
"reward_per_share": null,
"risk_per_share": null,
"label_reward_risk": "Reward/Risk 0.54",
"label_risk_reward": "Risk:Reward 1:1.85",
"display": "Reward/Risk 0.54 · Risk:Reward 1:1.85",
"convention": "reward_risk_ratio = reward ÷ risk; Risk:Reward shows risk per unit reward"
},
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"bond": 0.213,
"oil": 0.0,
"macro": 0.057,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {}
}
}
},
"trade_plan": {},
"actual": {},
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.68,
"bond": 0.213,
"oil": 0.0,
"macro": 0.057,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {}
},
"labels": {
"actual_driver": "AI/Semiconductor",
"agent_driver": "Geopolitical Risk",
"agent_driver_type": "Political",
"corrected_driver_from_verify": null,
"driver_splits": {},
"hypothesis_correct": "错",
"scenario_primary": "A",
"scenario_actual": "A",
"scenario_correct": true,
"trade_recommendation": "—",
"trade_direction": "NO TRADE",
"primary_symbol": "—",
"predicted_return_pct": null,
"prediction_error_pct": null
},
"surprise": "AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day",
"lesson": "AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量；Morning Hypothesis 被 Chip/Macro 冲突推翻——复盘 P10/P15 权重",
"playbook_refs": [
"Case-37"
],
"bayesian_drivers": {
"AI": 1.0,
"Bond": 0.0,
"Macro": 0.0,
"Oil": 0.0,
"Risk": 0.0
},
"data_gaps": []
}