Market Case · 2026-08-19

Day 34

9/9 Steps

流程 Case 核对 Learning 起始日 2026-07-02（Day 1）

Regime · Hypothesis

R0 Regime: Range (50.0%)
Hypothesis: Macro is today's primary market driver
ID: H-2026-08-19-001

Labels · Attribution

真正 Driver: AI Chip Selloff
Hypothesis 结果: 错
Scenario 预测: A
Scenario 实际: B
Scenario 命中: ✗
AI 贡献: 83%
Bond: 10%

Surprise · Lesson

Surprise：Bond mattered less than expected despite 10Y=4.72%; AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day

Lesson：AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量；SMH -5.5% + QQQ -1.9%：半导体拖累纳指；Morning Hypothesis 被 Chip/Macro 冲突推翻——复盘 P10/P15 权重

Evidence / Counter

Evidence

VIX=15.8 (low fear)

Counter

10Y=4.72% (elevated rates)
Breadth 14% (narrow market)

Step 快捷入口

S0 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8

原始 JSON

{
  "date": "2026-08-19",
  "features": {
    "dgs10": 4.72,
    "dgs2": null,
    "vix": 15.76,
    "vix_chg": -0.51,
    "qqq_chg": -1.85,
    "smh_chg": -5.48,
    "nvda_chg": -3.21,
    "spy_chg": 0.0,
    "oil_chg": 0.0,
    "dxy_chg": -0.23,
    "breadth_proxy": 0.7142857142857143,
    "qqq_gap": -1.62,
    "news_headline_count": 23,
    "news_bearish_ratio": 0.5,
    "news_ai_mentions": 36,
    "news_macro_mentions": 2,
    "news_oil_mentions": 2,
    "news_risk_mentions": 1
  },
  "regime": {
    "label": "Range",
    "confidence": 0.5
  },
  "hypothesis": {
    "id": "H-2026-08-19-001",
    "statement": "Macro is today's primary market driver",
    "evidence": [
      "VIX=15.8 (low fear)"
    ],
    "counter_evidence": [
      "10Y=4.72% (elevated rates)",
      "Breadth 14% (narrow market)"
    ],
    "confidence": 0.4,
    "status": "待验证"
  },
  "morning": {
    "bias": "Bear",
    "total": -2,
    "driver_type": "Political",
    "daily_driver": "Geopolitical Risk (Iran)",
    "best_opportunity": {},
    "best_trades": {},
    "edges": {},
    "trade_candidates": []
  },
  "intraday": {
    "s5": {
      "driver_still_valid": true,
      "action": "Hold"
    },
    "s6": {
      "trade_valid": false,
      "action": "N/A"
    },
    "s7": {
      "actual_driver": "AI Chip Selloff",
      "attribution": {
        "ai": 0.832,
        "bond": 0.097,
        "oil": 0.0,
        "macro": 0.021,
        "other": 0.05,
        "splits": {
          "AI Chip Selloff": 0.834
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "trade_plan": {},
  "actual": {},
  "attribution": {
    "ai": 0.832,
    "bond": 0.097,
    "oil": 0.0,
    "macro": 0.021,
    "other": 0.05,
    "splits": {
      "AI Chip Selloff": 0.834
    }
  },
  "labels": {
    "actual_driver": "AI Chip Selloff",
    "agent_driver": "Geopolitical Risk (Iran)",
    "agent_driver_type": "Political",
    "corrected_driver_from_verify": null,
    "driver_splits": {
      "AI Chip Selloff": 0.8339813740280843
    },
    "hypothesis_correct": "错",
    "scenario_primary": "A",
    "scenario_actual": "B",
    "scenario_correct": false,
    "trade_recommendation": null,
    "trade_direction": null,
    "primary_symbol": null,
    "predicted_return_pct": null,
    "prediction_error_pct": null
  },
  "surprise": "Bond mattered less than expected despite 10Y=4.72%; AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day",
  "lesson": "AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量；SMH -5.5% + QQQ -1.9%：半导体拖累纳指；Morning Hypothesis 被 Chip/Macro 冲突推翻——复盘 P10/P15 权重",
  "playbook_refs": [
    "Case-32"
  ],
  "bayesian_drivers": {
    "AI": 1.0,
    "Bond": 0.0,
    "Macro": 0.0,
    "Oil": 0.0,
    "Risk": 0.0
  },
  "data_gaps": []
}