30 秒看懂：这不是炒股 App，也不会帮你下单。它每天自动做一套「晨会 → 盘中检查 → 收盘复盘」的研究报告，供你阅读和决策参考。
你唯一必须做的事：每个交易日收盘后花约 5 分钟去核对——告诉系统今天猜对了还是猜错了。核对越多，Agent 才会越用越准。
首页「Morning 一页纸 · 决策卡」每天 5 行 + Hypothesis。下面是一个假例子，帮你理解每行含义：
NYSE 休市日（周末、法定假日）没有当日报告，这是正常的——系统不会生成 Driver、决策卡或 Step 更新。
此时请点首页的「上一交易日」链接，查看最近一份完整报告。休市期间的新闻摘要（如有）仅供参考，不构成交易决策。
Day 2
H-2026-07-06-001Surprise：AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day
Lesson：【核对纠正】 2026-07-06: P3 Agent 说「N/A」→ 用户纠正：LLM Failed，属于系统失败，不应该留空。 AI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量
{
"date": "2026-07-06",
"features": {
"dgs10": 4.48,
"dgs2": null,
"vix": 15.62,
"vix_chg": -3.28,
"qqq_chg": 1.61,
"smh_chg": 2.69,
"nvda_chg": 0.93,
"spy_chg": 0.96,
"oil_chg": -0.06,
"dxy_chg": 0.03,
"breadth_proxy": 0.8571428571428571,
"qqq_gap": 0.9963513892787009,
"news_headline_count": 41,
"news_bearish_ratio": 0.13,
"news_ai_mentions": 111,
"news_macro_mentions": 12,
"news_oil_mentions": 1,
"news_risk_mentions": 6
},
"regime": {
"label": "AI Expansion",
"confidence": 0.82
},
"hypothesis": {
"id": "H-2026-07-06-001",
"statement": "AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable",
"evidence": [
"VIX=15.6 (low fear)",
"VIX↓ -3.3% (risk-on)",
"SMH +2.7%",
"Breadth 86% (broad participation)"
],
"counter_evidence": [],
"confidence": 0.91,
"status": "待验证"
},
"morning": {
"bias": "Bullish Bias",
"total": 4,
"driver_type": "Momentum",
"daily_driver": "AI Momentum",
"best_opportunity": {
"direction": "LONG",
"symbol": "TSLA",
"instrument": "Stock",
"confidence": 80,
"entry": "Above 417.1",
"stop": "390.5",
"target": "419.6",
"targets": [
"419.6"
],
"duration": "Swing",
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +4.40%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 回落",
"Momentum driver",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +4.40% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落",
"avoid": [],
"one_liner": "Today buy TSLA above 417.1, expected +0.51%",
"p16_gate": "Trade",
"advisory": true,
"threshold_message": "今日无任何标的达到交易阈值",
"expected_return_pct": 0.51,
"win_prob": 80.0,
"risk_reward": 0.09,
"final_score": 0.2
},
"trade_candidates": [
{
"symbol": "TQQQ",
"win_prob": 75.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"expected_high": 77.45,
"expected_low": 75.11,
"expected_close": 77.25,
"current_price": 76.83,
"upside_pct": 0.81,
"downside_risk_pct": 2.24,
"risk_reward": 0.36,
"final_score": 0.2,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 2.97,
"relative_strength": 3.13,
"prior_day_change_pct": -5.31,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +3.13%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 回落",
"Momentum driver",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +3.13% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 · Momentum driver",
"score": 2,
"news_count": 0,
"advisory": true,
"rank": 1
},
{
"symbol": "TSLA",
"win_prob": 80.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.51,
"expected_high": 419.55,
"expected_low": 390.5,
"expected_close": 419.23,
"current_price": 417.11,
"upside_pct": 0.58,
"downside_risk_pct": 6.38,
"risk_reward": 0.09,
"final_score": 0.2,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 0.98,
"relative_strength": 4.4,
"prior_day_change_pct": -7.49,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +4.40%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 回落",
"Momentum driver",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +4.40% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落",
"score": 2,
"news_count": 0,
"advisory": true,
"rank": 2
},
{
"symbol": "SMH",
"win_prob": 75.0,
"expected_return_pct": 0.14,
"expected_high": 618.2,
"expected_low": 603.36,
"expected_close": 609.09,
"current_price": 608.23,
"upside_pct": 1.64,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 2.05,
"final_score": 0.11,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 2.48,
"relative_strength": 1.08,
"prior_day_change_pct": -4.54,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +1.08%",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 回落",
"Momentum driver",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS vs QQQ +1.08% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 · Momentum driver",
"score": 1,
"news_count": 0,
"advisory": true,
"rank": 3
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"win_prob": 68.0,
"expected_return_pct": -0.02,
"expected_high": 727.7,
"expected_low": 718.29,
"expected_close": 723.91,
"current_price": 724.08,
"upside_pct": 0.5,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 0.62,
"final_score": 0.0,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 1.0,
"relative_strength": 0.0,
"prior_day_change_pct": -1.73,
"why_factors": [
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 4",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 回落",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "Gap 未过度延伸 · News 4 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落",
"score": 0,
"news_count": 4,
"advisory": true,
"rank": 4
},
{
"symbol": "SPY",
"win_prob": 58.0,
"expected_return_pct": -0.1,
"expected_high": 755.67,
"expected_low": 745.89,
"expected_close": 751.19,
"current_price": 751.91,
"upside_pct": 0.5,
"downside_risk_pct": 0.8,
"risk_reward": 0.62,
"final_score": 0.0,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": 0.53,
"relative_strength": -0.65,
"prior_day_change_pct": -0.13,
"why_factors": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -0.65%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 4",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 回落",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -0.65% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 4 · Volume 信号",
"score": 0,
"news_count": 4,
"advisory": true,
"rank": 5
},
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"win_prob": 63.0,
"expected_return_pct": -0.24,
"expected_high": 197.63,
"expected_low": 194.0,
"expected_close": 196.18,
"current_price": 196.65,
"upside_pct": 0.5,
"downside_risk_pct": 1.35,
"risk_reward": 0.37,
"final_score": 0.0,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"trade": "Pass",
"gap_pct": -0.23,
"relative_strength": -0.68,
"prior_day_change_pct": -1.39,
"why_factors": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -0.68%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 8",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 回落",
"Momentum driver"
],
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -0.68% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 8 · Volume 信号",
"score": 0,
"news_count": 8,
"advisory": true,
"rank": 6
}
],
"best_trades": {
"primary": {
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "TSLA",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"confidence": 80,
"expected_move": "+0.51%",
"expected_return_pct": 0.51,
"win_prob": 80.0,
"risk_reward": 0.09,
"final_score": 0.2,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"entry": "Above 417.1",
"stop": "390.5",
"target": "419.6",
"targets": [
"419.6"
],
"why": [
"RS vs QQQ +4.40%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 回落",
"Momentum driver",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"why_chain": "RS vs QQQ +4.40% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落",
"expected_high": 419.55,
"expected_low": 390.5,
"expected_close": 419.23,
"current_price": 417.11,
"upside_pct": 0.58,
"why_factors": [
"RS vs QQQ +4.40%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 回落",
"Momentum driver",
"上行空间 <1.0%"
],
"advisory": true
},
"secondary": {
"rank": 2,
"symbol": "NVDA",
"direction": "LONG",
"instrument": "Stock",
"confidence": 63,
"expected_move": "-0.24%",
"expected_return_pct": -0.24,
"win_prob": 63.0,
"risk_reward": 0.37,
"final_score": 0.0,
"trade_action": "Pass",
"entry": "Above 196.7",
"stop": "194.0",
"target": "197.6",
"targets": [
"197.6"
],
"why": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -0.68%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 8",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 回落",
"Momentum driver"
],
"why_chain": "RS 弱于 QQQ -0.68% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 8 · Volume 信号",
"expected_high": 197.63,
"expected_low": 194.0,
"expected_close": 196.18,
"current_price": 196.65,
"upside_pct": 0.5,
"why_factors": [
"RS 弱于 QQQ -0.68%",
"Gap 未过度延伸",
"News 8",
"Volume 信号",
"VIX 回落",
"Momentum driver"
],
"advisory": true
},
"watchlist": null,
"index_trade": "NO TRADE",
"threshold_message": null,
"stock_trades": [
{
"rank": 1,
"symbol": "TSLA",
"direction": "LONG",
"confidence": 80,
"expected_move": "+0.51%",
"why": "RS vs QQQ +4.40% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落"
},
{
"rank": 2,
"symbol": "NVDA",
"direction": "LONG",
"confidence": 63,
"expected_move": "-0.24%",
"why": "RS 弱于 QQQ -0.68% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 8 · Volume 信号"
}
],
"advisory": true
},
"edges": {
"macro_edge": {
"edge": "NO",
"why": "今日无重大宏观数据发布"
},
"index_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "QQQ 盘前/开盘 +1.46%"
},
"sector_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "SMH 领先 QQQ +0.91%",
"sector": "AI"
},
"stock_edge": {
"edge": "YES",
"why": "META RS+新闻+量能",
"symbol": "META"
},
"advisory": "ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议"
}
},
"intraday": {
"s5": {
"driver_still_valid": true,
"action": "Hold"
},
"s6": {
"trade_valid": false,
"action": "N/A"
},
"s7": {
"actual_driver": "AI/Semiconductor",
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.808,
"bond": 0.0,
"oil": 0.004,
"macro": 0.138,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {}
}
}
},
"trade_plan": {},
"actual": {},
"attribution": {
"ai": 0.808,
"bond": 0.0,
"oil": 0.004,
"macro": 0.138,
"other": 0.05,
"splits": {}
},
"labels": {
"actual_driver": "AI/Semiconductor",
"agent_driver": "AI Momentum",
"agent_driver_type": "Momentum",
"corrected_driver_from_verify": null,
"driver_splits": {},
"hypothesis_correct": "对",
"scenario_primary": "A",
"scenario_actual": "A",
"scenario_correct": true,
"trade_recommendation": "TSLA",
"trade_direction": "LONG",
"primary_symbol": "TSLA",
"predicted_return_pct": 0.51,
"prediction_error_pct": null
},
"surprise": "AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day",
"lesson": "【核对纠正】\n2026-07-06: P3 Agent 说「N/A」→ 用户纠正：LLM Failed，属于系统失败，不应该留空。\n\nAI Expansion Regime 下，单日 SMH/NVDA 抛售可压过 Macro 利好，指数分化（Dow+ / QQQ-）比「大盘涨跌」更有信息量",
"playbook_refs": [
"Case-2"
],
"bayesian_drivers": {
"AI": 0.9993,
"Bond": 0.0001,
"Macro": 0.0005,
"Oil": 0.0001,
"Risk": 0.0001
},
"data_gaps": []
}