Market Case · 2026-07-03

NYSE 休市 · Independence Day (observed)

非交易日 · 无 Step 进度

流程 Case 核对 Learning 起始日 2026-07-02（Day 1）

当日催化剂

快照 2026-07-03T11:58:56

事件	预定	状态	实际值	Consensus	Surprise	典型影响（参考）	实测反应
CPI (Headline YoY)	08:30	✅	334.0	315.5	+5.9% ⬆️	CPI 意外偏高 → 收益率上行、成长股承压；偏低相反	QQQ -1.7% / SMH -4.5% (全日)
PCE Price Index	08:30	✅	131.5	126.3	+4.1% ⬆️	PCE 意外偏高 → Fed 更鹰、贵金属/成长承压	QQQ -1.7% / SMH -4.5% (全日)
PPI	08:30	✅	292.5	258.0	+13.4% ⬆️	PPI 高于预期 → 通胀传导预期升温	QQQ -1.7% / SMH -4.5% (全日)
Retail Sales	08:30	✅	763,705	720,000	+6.1% ⬆️	零售超预期 → 消费韧性 → 收益率上行 + 顺周期偏强	QQQ -1.7% / SMH -4.5% (全日)
Initial Jobless Claims	08:30	✅	215,000	225,000	-4.4% ⬇️	初请骤增 → 就业转弱 → 降息预期 → 债券偏强	QQQ -1.7% / SMH -4.5% (全日)
GDP QoQ (Advance/2nd/Final)	08:30	⏳	31,866	29,500	+8.0% ⬆️	GDP 意外强 → 收益率+ 美元+；弱则相反	—
ISM Manufacturing PMI	10:00	❌ fallback to news	—	49.50	—	ISM > 50 且超预期 → 顺周期偏强、油/铜偏强	—
JOLTS Job Openings	10:00	✅	7,594	7,600	-0.1% ⬇️	JOLTS 强 → 劳动力紧俏 → Fed 更鹰	QQQ -1.7% / SMH -4.5% (全日)
Nonfarm Payrolls	08:30	✅	158,984	175.0	+90748.0% ⬆️	NFP 大超预期 → 收益率+、金价压、成长承压	QQQ -1.7% / SMH -4.5% (全日)
Unemployment Rate	08:30	✅	4.2%	4.1%	+2.4% ⬆️	失业率意外上行 → 降息预期 → 债券+	QQQ -1.7% / SMH -4.5% (全日)

Regime · Hypothesis

R0 Regime: AI Expansion (82.0%)
Hypothesis: AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable
ID: H-2026-07-03-001

Labels · Attribution

真正 Driver: AI/Semiconductor
Hypothesis 结果: 部分对
Scenario 预测: —
Scenario 实际: —
Scenario 命中: —
AI 贡献: 87%
Bond: 0%

Surprise · Lesson

Surprise：AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day

Lesson：—

Evidence / Counter

Evidence

VIX=15.8 (low fear)

Counter

NVDA -1.4%
SMH -4.5%

Step 快捷入口

S0 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8

原始 JSON

{
  "date": "2026-07-03",
  "features": {
    "dgs10": 4.48,
    "dgs2": null,
    "vix": 15.81,
    "vix_chg": -2.11,
    "qqq_chg": -1.73,
    "smh_chg": -4.54,
    "nvda_chg": -1.39,
    "spy_chg": -0.13,
    "oil_chg": 0.78,
    "dxy_chg": -0.01,
    "breadth_proxy": 0.42857142857142855,
    "qqq_gap": 1.8214987370193683,
    "news_headline_count": 30,
    "news_bearish_ratio": 0.154,
    "news_ai_mentions": 21,
    "news_macro_mentions": 2,
    "news_oil_mentions": 2,
    "news_risk_mentions": 5
  },
  "regime": {
    "label": "AI Expansion",
    "confidence": 0.82
  },
  "hypothesis": {
    "id": "H-2026-07-03-001",
    "statement": "AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable",
    "evidence": [
      "VIX=15.8 (low fear)"
    ],
    "counter_evidence": [
      "NVDA -1.4%",
      "SMH -4.5%"
    ],
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "status": "待验证"
  },
  "morning": {
    "bias": "Neutral",
    "total": -1
  },
  "intraday": {
    "s5": {
      "driver_still_valid": true,
      "action": "Hold"
    },
    "s6": {
      "trade_valid": false,
      "action": "N/A"
    },
    "s7": {
      "actual_driver": "AI/Semiconductor",
      "attribution": {
        "ai": 0.867,
        "bond": 0.0,
        "oil": 0.031,
        "macro": 0.052,
        "other": 0.05
      }
    }
  },
  "trade_plan": {},
  "actual": {},
  "attribution": {
    "ai": 0.867,
    "bond": 0.0,
    "oil": 0.031,
    "macro": 0.052,
    "other": 0.05
  },
  "labels": {
    "actual_driver": "AI/Semiconductor",
    "hypothesis_correct": "部分对"
  },
  "surprise": "AI/Semiconductor dominated more than typical day",
  "lesson": null,
  "playbook_refs": [],
  "bayesian_drivers": {},
  "data_gaps": []
}