Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 64
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 62.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 70.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 59.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 50.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 82.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 60.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 65.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 50.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ QQQ Avoid 64.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Fed — Fed Headlines

    rate hike — Will the Stock Market Crash? History Gives a 95% Reason to Stay Calm

  2. Secondary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Fed Headlines + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate hike — Will the Stock Market Crash? History Gives a 95% Reason to Stay Calm
  • commodity Oil Selloff 72 XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 737.9 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 737.9 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 737.9 (昨日低点) and 737.9 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 TQQQ
TQQQ ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + acceptable liquidity
LONG Intraday 66.0% 0.88% Reward/Risk 0.53 Entry Zone 79.10–79.58 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$78.03 $80.04 RS vs QQQ +1.81% · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% Fed Headlines · Oil Selloff Close below stop $78.03
2 ARM LONG Intraday 62.0% 0.93% Reward/Risk 0.88 Entry Zone 294.00–294.39 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$291.06 $296.94 RS vs QQQ +0.55% · 上行空间 <1.0% Fed Headlines · Oil Selloff Close below stop $291.06
3 NVDA LONG Intraday 70.0% 0.45% Reward/Risk 0.50 Entry Zone 230–231 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$228.38 $231.48 RS vs QQQ +0.42% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 6 · Volume 信号 Fed Headlines · Oil Selloff Close below stop $228.38
4 SMH LONG Intraday 54.0% 0.37% Reward/Risk 0.45 Entry Zone 613–615 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$609.0 $616.43 Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% Fed Headlines · Oil Selloff Close below stop $609.0
5 TSLA LONG Intraday 59.0% 0.6% Reward/Risk 0.87 Entry Zone 355–357 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$353.83 $358.39 Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0% Fed Headlines · Oil Selloff Close below stop $353.83

Watchlist

  • AMD · Pass · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • SPY · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -0.76% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • AVGO · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -0.65% · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • MU · Pass · RS 弱于 QQQ -1.48% · Gap 未过度延伸 · 上行空间 <1.0%
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Fed — Fed Headlines
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.18 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Fed Headlines、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Fed Headlines / Oil Selloff Whipsaw

  • Fed Headlines / Oil Selloff Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $726.50–$743.50
Stop · Target $773.15 → $669.38 / T2 $639.73
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -2.5%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $773.15 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 META:理想入场 $726.50–$743.50,止损 $773.15,目标 $669.38(约 +8.1%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-10-01-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Fed Headlines 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (1.58%)

Driver「Fed — Fed Headlines」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT 0.05% -1.53% ▼
IEF 0.1% -1.48% ▼
UUP 0.45% -1.13% ▼

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →