Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 60
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★★☆ AMD LONG AMD ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk 87.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 70.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 75.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 86.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 71.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 unchanged vs Morning: AMD · ADVISORY

Morning: AMD LONG · READY

AMD LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 633–636 · Live ER +1.54% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ AMD LONG AMD ranked #1 as top trade candidate today 75.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ ARM LONG 77.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 58.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 75.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 75.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 65.0% Avoid

#1:AMD ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    Bond Selloff Fades, US-Iran Said to be Exploring Phased Deal, Trump-Xi Summit

  2. Secondary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 Bond Selloff Fades, US-Iran Said to be Exploring Phased Deal, Trump-Xi Summit
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 US, Iran Said to Be Exploring Phased Deal to Open Hormuz
  • commodity Oil Selloff 76 XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 741.2 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 741.2 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 741.2 (昨日低点) and 741.2 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 AMD
AMD ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk
LONG Swing 87.0% 2.14% Reward/Risk 1.06 Entry Zone 640–644 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$629.26 $656.06 RS vs QQQ +1.28% · RS vs SMH +0.66% · 昨日强势 +4.4% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $629.26 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • ARM · Pass · RS vs QQQ +3.91% · RS vs SMH +3.29% · Gap 未过度延伸 · VIX 回落
  • META · Pass · RS vs QQQ +3.04% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 · 上行空间 <1.0%
  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.31% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落
  • MU · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.53% · 昨日强势 +2.0% 今日 gap 可控 · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 2
  • AVGO · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.82% · Gap 未过度延伸 · VIX 回落 · 上行空间 <1.0%
Bias Bull ★★★★★
Best Trade AMD · LONG · Stock · ER +2.14%
Direction LONG Swing
Win Prob 87.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 640–644 Above 642.3 (VWAP) vwap
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $641.75 Dist -0.08% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +2.14%
Stop / Target $629.26 → $656.06
R:R Reward/Risk 1.06 · Risk:Reward 1:0.94
P&L +$96.39 / -$91.21
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)
Confidence 87%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS vs QQQ +1.28% · RS vs SMH +0.66% · 昨日强势 +4.4% 今日 gap 可控

#1:AMD ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Largest Expected Range 4.46 vs 2.57
  2. Highest Probability 87.0 vs 86.0
  3. Best Risk Reward 1.05 vs 1.0

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +18.0
  • Trend +10.0
  • Gap +5.0
  • Macro +4.0
  • Total 87.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$96.39
失败 Loss -$91.21
每股价差 Reward $13.77 / Risk $13.03 Reward/Risk 1.06 · Risk:Reward 1:0.94

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% ↓ Position 45.0% ↓ 1 unit(s) ↓ Max Loss $91.21

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $642.29 Confidence 89 vwap
  • ✓ VWAP $642.29 70%
  • ✓ ORB High $644.75 30%
Stop $629.26 Confidence 77 orb_low
  • ✓ ORB Low $629.26 100%
Target $656.06 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • ✓ Expected Close $656.06 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • ARM (#2)
    • Win% 87 vs 77
    • ER 2.1% vs 1.1%
    • Score 0.97 vs 0.42
    • RS +1.3% vs +3.9%
    • R:R 1.05 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • META (#3)
    • Win% 87 vs 70
    • ER 2.1% vs 1.0%
    • Score 0.97 vs 0.34
    • RS +1.3% vs +3.0%
    • R:R 1.05 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • TQQQ (#4)
    • Win% 87 vs 75
    • ER 2.1% vs 0.3%
    • Score 0.97 vs 0.13
    • R:R 1.05 vs 0.24
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • MU (#5)
    • Win% 87 vs 86
    • ER 2.1% vs 0.3%
    • Score 0.97 vs 0.12
    • RS +1.3% vs +0.5%
    • R:R 1.05 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • AVGO (#6)
    • Win% 87 vs 71
    • ER 2.1% vs 0.3%
    • Score 0.97 vs 0.11
    • RS +1.3% vs +0.8%
    • R:R 1.05 vs 1.0
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.13 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Oil Selloff

Today's Biggest Risk

Geopolitical Risk (Iran) / Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Whipsaw

  • Geopolitical Risk (Iran) / Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Similar Days (Historical)

  • 2026-08-28 win 3.92%

Expected Value

EV $+72 (win +$96 @ 87.0% · loss -$91)

「做多 AMD:在 642.29 附近入场,目标 656.06,预期 +2.14%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction AMD · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $626.39–$641.75
Stop · Target $599.52 → $693.56 / T2 $720.43
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 AMD · Prior day +4.4% · 5D momentum +15.4%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $599.52 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 AMD:理想入场 $626.39–$641.75,止损 $599.52,目标 $693.56(约 +8.4%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-25-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Sector Edge

Why vs #2:AMD RS +1.3% vs ARM +3.9%;ER 2.2% vs 1.1%;Win% 87 vs 77;relative strength

final = win_prob(87%) × ER(2.2%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS vs QQQ +1.28%
  • RS vs SMH +0.66%
  • 昨日强势 +4.4% 今日 gap 可控
  • Gap 未过度延伸
  • VIX 回落

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (1.13%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE 0.98% -0.15% ▼
UUP 0.73% -0.40% ▼
QQQ 1.13% +0.00% —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
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