Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 57
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ ARM LONG ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability 72.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ AMD LONG 72.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★★☆☆☆ TQQQ Wait 66.0% Wait
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 unchanged vs Morning: ARM · ADVISORY

Morning: ARM LONG · ACTIVE

ARM LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 322–324 · Live ER +5.72% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ ARM LONG ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + best reward/risk 60.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ AMD LONG 60.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid

#1:ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Fed — Fed Headlines

    rate hike — Prediction: A Stock Market Crash Is Coming. Here's What Investors Should Do Base

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Prediction: A Stock Market Crash Is Coming. Here's What Investors Should Do Base

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 7 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Fed Headlines + Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk

  • breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate hike — Prediction: A Stock Market Crash Is Coming. Here's What Investors Should Do Base
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Prediction: A Stock Market Crash Is Coming. Here's What Investors Should Do Base
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Dimon Says US Shouldn’t Punish India Over Russian Oil: CNBC TV18
  • commodity Oil Selloff 78 XLE +0.0% · 7 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 721.5 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 721.5 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 721.5 (昨日低点) and 721.5 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
LONG Intraday 72.0% 2.94% Reward/Risk 0.91 Entry Zone 325–327 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$315.67 $335.79 RS vs QQQ +12.88% · RS vs SMH +12.37% · Volume 信号 Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $315.67 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 AMD LONG Intraday 72.0% 2.48% Reward/Risk 33.29 Entry Zone 604.10–605.00 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$604.1 $619.53 RS vs QQQ +5.32% · RS vs SMH +4.81% · Volume 信号 Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $604.1 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 TQQQ LONG Intraday 66.0% 1.81% Reward/Risk 1.86 Entry Zone 78.67–79.15 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$78.14 $80.34 RS vs QQQ +5.84% · Volume 信号 Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk Close below stop $78.14 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • META · Pass · RS vs QQQ +7.87% · Volume 信号
  • TSLA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.03% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.07 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.51% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • QQQ · Pass · News 1 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.04 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • XLK · Pass · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.13 < 0.20(EV门禁)
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade ARM · LONG · Stock · ER +2.94%
Direction LONG Intraday
Win Prob 72.0% (rules)
Ideal Entry (frozen) Entry Zone 325–327 Above 326.2 (ORB高点) orb_high
Entry Status EXPIRED Current $318.68 Dist -2.30% Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today Ideal ER +2.94%
Stop / Target $315.67 → $335.79
R:R Reward/Risk 0.91 · Risk:Reward 1:1.10
P&L +$86.4 / -$94.68
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Fed — Fed Headlines
Confidence 72%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why RS vs QQQ +12.88% · RS vs SMH +12.37% · Volume 信号

#1:ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability

Why This Trade Wins Today

  1. Highest Relative Strength 12.88 vs 7.87
  2. Largest Expected Range 10.74 vs 5.06
  3. Highest Probability 72.0 vs 72.0

Win Probability 拆解

  • Base +50.0
  • RS +18.0
  • Volume +4.0
  • Total 72.0%

美元盈亏 · 非抽象 ER%

账户 Account $10,000
成功 Win +$86.4
失败 Loss -$94.68
每股价差 Reward $9.6 / Risk $10.52 Reward/Risk 0.91 · Risk:Reward 1:1.10

仓位 Position Size

Risk 1.0% ↓ Position 29.4% ↓ 1 unit(s) ↓ Max Loss $94.68

价位来源 Level Reasons

Entry $326.19 Confidence 77 orb_high
  • ✓ ORB High $326.19 100%
Stop $315.67 Confidence 77 orb_low
  • ✓ ORB Low $315.67 100%
Target $335.79 Confidence 77 expected_close
  • ✓ Expected Close $335.79 100%

Why Not the Alternatives

  • AMD (#2)
    • ER 2.9% vs 2.4%
    • Score 1.93 vs 0.86
    • RS +12.9% vs +5.3%
  • META (#3)
    • Win% 72 vs 66
    • ER 2.9% vs 2.5%
    • Score 1.93 vs 0.83
    • RS +12.9% vs +7.9%
  • TQQQ (#4)
    • Win% 72 vs 66
    • ER 2.9% vs 1.9%
    • Score 1.93 vs 0.61
    • RS +12.9% vs +5.8%
  • TSLA (#5)
    • Win% 72 vs 66
    • ER 2.9% vs 0.5%
    • Score 1.93 vs 0.15
    • RS +12.9% vs +1.0%
    • R:R 0.91 vs 0.62
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass
  • SMH (#6)
    • Win% 72 vs 66
    • ER 2.9% vs 0.4%
    • Score 1.93 vs 0.12
    • RS +12.9% vs +0.5%
    • Tradeable (Small) vs Pass

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Fed Headlines、Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk

Today's Biggest Risk

Extended Gap on ARM

  • Extended Gap on ARM
  • Fed Headlines / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw
  • Don't Buy First Green Candle
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

Similar Days (Historical)

  • 2026-08-28 win 3.92%

Expected Value

EV $+36 (win +$86 @ 72.0% · loss -$95)

「做多 ARM:在 326.19 附近入场,目标 335.79,预期 +2.94%」

Watch ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $720.56–$736.45
Stop · Target $693.2 → $788.96 / T2 $816.32
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +11.4%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $693.2 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 META:理想入场 $720.56–$736.45,止损 $693.2,目标 $788.96(约 +7.5%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-22-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Fed Headlines 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Edge:Sector Edge

Why vs #2:ARM RS +12.9% vs AMD +5.3%;ER 5.4% vs 2.4%;higher beta (5.7 vs 2.9);relative strength

final = win_prob(72%) × ER(5.4%) × rr_weight(0.5) / 100

  • RS vs QQQ +12.88%
  • RS vs SMH +12.37%
  • Volume 信号

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (3.9%)

Driver「Fed — Fed Headlines」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT -4.86% -8.76% ▼
IEF -1.92% -5.82% ▼
UUP 1.47% -2.43% ▼

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →