Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 56
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 set at session re-eval: MU · ADVISORY

Primary changed vs Morning Ideal

↻ MU LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 1047–1054 · Live ER +1.86% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 60.0% Avoid
  • ★★★☆☆ MU LONG MU ranked #1 because highest probability 77.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 60.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Fed — Fed Headlines

    rate hike — What Higher Interest Rates Mean for Caterpillar, GE Vernova, and Vertiv

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk (Iran)

    President Donald Trump Just Admonished the Fed for "Doing the Wrong Thing" on In

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Fed Headlines + Geopolitical Risk (Iran) + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate hike — What Higher Interest Rates Mean for Caterpillar, GE Vernova, and Vertiv
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk (Iran) 88 President Donald Trump Just Admonished the Fed for "Doing the Wrong Thing" on In
  • commodity Oil Selloff 74 XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — US LNG Producers Eye Bonanza If Trump and Xi Can Ease Tariffs
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — President Donald Trump Just Admonished the Fed for "Doing the Wrong Thing" on In

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 716.9 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 716.9 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 716.9 (昨日低点) and 716.9 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range
LONG Swing 72.0% 2.41% Reward/Risk 1.28 Entry Zone 288–289 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$283.07 $295.45 RS vs QQQ +7.10% · RS vs SMH +4.55% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.15 < 0.20(EV门禁) Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $283.07 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 MU LONG Swing 77.0% 1.11% Reward/Risk 0.73 Entry Zone 1035.42–1036.35 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$1020.07 $1047.42 RS vs QQQ +4.04% · RS vs SMH +1.49% · News 1 · Volume 信号 Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $1020.07 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 AMD LONG Swing 72.0% 1.41% Reward/Risk 1.05 Entry Zone 574.47–574.94 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$567.0 $582.81 RS vs QQQ +3.90% · RS vs SMH +1.35% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.08 < 0.20(EV门禁) Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $567.0 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 TQQQ LONG Swing 66.0% 1.27% Reward/Risk 0.86 Entry Zone 74.77–74.94 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$73.74 $75.8 RS vs QQQ +3.47% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.12 < 0.20(EV门禁) Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $73.74 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 AVGO LONG Swing 66.0% 1.05% Reward/Risk 1.13 Entry Zone 362.80–362.95 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$359.52 $366.69 RS vs QQQ +2.96% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.07 < 0.20(EV门禁) Fed Headlines · Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Close below stop $359.52 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +2.55% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.07 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • XLK · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.43% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.15 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • AMZN · Pass · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.13 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.10 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • NVDA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.74% · News 8 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.03 < 0.20(EV门禁)
Bias Bull ★★★★★
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Fed — Fed Headlines
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.35 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Fed Headlines、Geopolitical Risk (Iran)、Oil Selloff

Today's Biggest Risk

Fed Headlines / Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Whipsaw

  • Fed Headlines / Geopolitical Risk (Iran) Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction MSFT · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $495.52–$501.94
Stop · Target $509.95 → $472.16 / T2 $447.31
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 MSFT · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -0.4%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $509.95 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 MSFT:理想入场 $495.52–$501.94,止损 $509.95,目标 $472.16(约 +5.0%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-21-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Fed Headlines 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (4.55%)

Driver「Fed — Fed Headlines」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT — — —
IEF — — —
UUP — — —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →