Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 55
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 77.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ GOOGL Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 set at session re-eval: AMD · ADVISORY

Primary changed vs Morning Ideal

↻ AMD LONG · Ideal Entry Zone 546–549 · Live ER +2.20% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ AMD LONG AMD ranked #1 because highest probability + best reward/risk 77.0% Trade
  • ★★★☆☆ ARM LONG 60.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 60.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 54.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Fed — Fed Headlines

    rate hike — HSBC’s Kettner Sees Stocks Riding Out Rate Hikes, Buoyed by Earnings

  2. Secondary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Fed Headlines + Fed Headlines + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate hike — HSBC’s Kettner Sees Stocks Riding Out Rate Hikes, Buoyed by Earnings
  • breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate hike — The Fed Just Hiked Interest Rates. Are There More Hikes on the Way?
  • commodity Oil Selloff 74 XLE +0.0% · 3 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 704.7 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 704.7 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 704.7 (昨日低点) and 704.7 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range
LONG Intraday 72.0% 1.12% Reward/Risk 0.37 Entry Zone 274–276 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$266.58 $277.92 RS vs QQQ +8.15% · RS vs SMH +6.99% · Volume 信号 Fed Headlines · Fed Headlines Close below stop $266.58
2 AMD LONG Intraday 77.0% 0.49% Reward/Risk 0.27 Entry Zone 553–557 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$545.09 $557.89 RS vs QQQ +4.68% · RS vs SMH +3.52% · News 1 · Volume 信号 Fed Headlines · Fed Headlines Close below stop $545.09
3 MU LONG Intraday 72.0% 0.94% Reward/Risk 0.54 Entry Zone 992–998 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$977.5 $1003.89 RS vs QQQ +4.38% · RS vs SMH +3.22% · Volume 信号 Fed Headlines · Fed Headlines Close below stop $977.5

Watchlist

  • TQQQ · Pass · RS vs QQQ +4.01% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
  • GOOGL · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.53% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.17 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.16% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.08 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • TSLA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.78% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.07 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • NVDA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.74% · News 7 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.15 < 0.20(EV门禁)
Bias Bullish Bias ★★★★☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Fed — Fed Headlines
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.45 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Fed Headlines、Fed Headlines、Oil Selloff

Today's Biggest Risk

Fed Headlines / Fed Headlines Whipsaw

  • Fed Headlines / Fed Headlines Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $679.67–$692.25
Stop · Target $658.68 → $732.15 / T2 $759.19
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +5.9%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $658.68 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 META:理想入场 $679.67–$692.25,止损 $658.68,目标 $732.15(约 +6.1%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-18-001 · 弱 NFP 能否抵消 AI 抛售?(Macro 利率利好 vs 半导体风险)

Scenario B:若 Fed Headlines 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (6.36%)

Driver「Fed — Fed Headlines」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT — — —
IEF — — —
UUP — — —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →