Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 54
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 70.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 75.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 75.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 70.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 81.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 70.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 75.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TSLA Avoid 70.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Fed — Fed Headlines

    rate hike — Trump Faults ‘Hostile’ Fed Board for Interest-Rate Hike

  2. Secondary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    More Than a Quarter of Nvidia's Revenue Now Comes From Customers Based in Taiwan

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Fed Headlines + Fed Headlines + Geopolitical Risk

  • breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate hike — Trump Faults ‘Hostile’ Fed Board for Interest-Rate Hike
  • breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate hike — Stock Market Today, Sept. 16: Stocks Slip as Fed Raises Rates
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 More Than a Quarter of Nvidia's Revenue Now Comes From Customers Based in Taiwan
  • commodity Oil Selloff 72 XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 704.5 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 704.5 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 704.5 (昨日低点) and 704.5 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 ARM
ARM ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range + highest probability
LONG Intraday 76.0% 2.23% Reward/Risk 1.02 Entry Zone 251–253 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$246.6 $257.73 RS vs QQQ +3.92% · RS vs SMH +2.52% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 Fed Headlines · Fed Headlines Close below stop $246.6 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 AMD LONG Intraday 76.0% 1.9% Reward/Risk 0.98 Entry Zone 522–523 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$512.5 $532.57 RS vs QQQ +3.21% · RS vs SMH +1.81% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 Fed Headlines · Fed Headlines Close below stop $512.5 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 TQQQ LONG Intraday 70.0% 1.23% Reward/Risk 0.65 Entry Zone 70.02–70.05 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$68.71 $70.89 RS vs QQQ +2.43% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 · 期望R -0.16 < 0.20(EV门禁) Fed Headlines · Fed Headlines Close below stop $68.71 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 SMH LONG Intraday 75.0% 0.84% Reward/Risk 0.55 Entry Zone 553.56–554.55 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$545.56 $558.72 RS vs QQQ +1.40% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 Fed Headlines · Fed Headlines Close below stop $545.56 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 NVDA LONG Intraday 75.0% 0.42% Reward/Risk 0.31 Entry Zone 216.76–216.90 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$213.9 $217.75 RS vs QQQ +1.05% · News 6 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 Fed Headlines · Fed Headlines Close below stop $213.9 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • TSLA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.71% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 · 期望R -0.07 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • XLK · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.21% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落
  • META · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 · 期望R -0.03 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • MU · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.60% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落
  • AVGO · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.47% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落
Bias Neutral ★★★☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Fed — Fed Headlines
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.25 未达阈值
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Fed Headlines、Fed Headlines、Geopolitical Risk

Today's Biggest Risk

Fed Headlines / Fed Headlines Whipsaw

  • Fed Headlines / Fed Headlines Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $217.05–$221.46
Stop · Target $228.99 → $202.65 / T2 $195.13
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -4.3%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $228.99 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 NVDA:理想入场 $217.05–$221.46,止损 $228.99,目标 $202.65(约 +6.9%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-17-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Fed Headlines 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (6.39%)

Driver「Fed — Fed Headlines」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT — — —
IEF — — —
UUP — — —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →