Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 53
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLE Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 76.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ META Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 76.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 66.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ XLE Avoid 65.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Fed — Fed Headlines

    rate cut — Prediction: Warren Buffett's Successor, Greg Abel, Will Dispose of One of Berksh

  2. Secondary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  3. Tertiary Momentum — AI Momentum

    SMH +1.4% leading

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Fed Headlines

  • breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate cut — Prediction: Warren Buffett's Successor, Greg Abel, Will Dispose of One of Berksh
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:Wait

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 709.2 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 709.2 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 709.2 (昨日低点) and 709.2 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 AMD
AMD ranked #1 because weakest RS + largest expected range
LONG Intraday 72.0% 1.54% Reward/Risk 1.10 Entry Zone 510–513 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$504.2 $519.27 RS vs QQQ +3.93% · RS vs SMH +2.54% · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Fed Headlines · Trade Policy Close below stop $504.2
2 ARM LONG Intraday 72.0% 1.3% Reward/Risk 1.31 Entry Zone 245–246 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$242.82 $248.43 RS vs QQQ +3.04% · RS vs SMH +1.65% · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.14 < 0.20(EV门禁) Fed Headlines · Trade Policy Close below stop $242.82
3 XLE LONG Intraday 71.0% 0.23% Reward/Risk 0.52 Entry Zone 65.69–65.86 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$65.49 $65.93 RS vs QQQ +1.32% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛) Fed Headlines · Trade Policy Close below stop $65.49
4 META LONG Intraday 71.0% 1.43% Reward/Risk 14.72 Entry Zone 669–670 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$668.99 $679.21 RS vs QQQ +1.72% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.11 < 0.20(EV门禁) Fed Headlines · Trade Policy Close below stop $668.99
5 MU LONG Intraday 71.0% 0.71% Reward/Risk 1.02 Entry Zone 931–937 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$927.6 $940.72 RS vs QQQ +1.48% · News 1 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.07 < 0.20(EV门禁) Fed Headlines · Trade Policy Close below stop $927.6

Watchlist

  • NVDA · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.41% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 7 · Volume 信号
  • SMH · Pass · RS vs QQQ +1.39% · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.06 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • XLK · Pass · RS vs QQQ +0.50% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R 0.05 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • SPY · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.04 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · 期望R -0.04 < 0.20(EV门禁)
Bias Neutral ★★★☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Fed — Fed Headlines
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • Index Edge NO 指数方向不明或幅度不足
  • SPY Pass Score 0.0 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.11%
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Fed Headlines、Trade Policy

Today's Biggest Risk

Fed Headlines / Trade Policy Whipsaw

  • Fed Headlines / Trade Policy Whipsaw
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction META · LONG
Ideal Entry Zone $663.04–$676.32
Stop · Target $640.55 → $719.27 / T2 $741.77
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 META · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum +9.2%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $640.55 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做多 META:理想入场 $663.04–$676.32,止损 $640.55,目标 $719.27(约 +6.7%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-16-001 · AI/Semiconductor leads index today; macro is secondary variable

Scenario B:若 Fed Headlines 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (5.69%)

Driver「Fed — Fed Headlines」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT — — —
IEF — — —
UUP — — —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →