Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 51
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 80.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 81.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 72.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 72.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

No actionable primary at re-eval (or Morning had none) · ADVISORY

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 80.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 85.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AVGO Avoid 80.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 80.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 72.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Fed — Fed Headlines

    rate hike — Copper Drops as Spreads Loosen and Traders Boost Rate Hike Bets

  2. Secondary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

  3. Tertiary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Fed Headlines + Oil Selloff

  • breaking Fed Headlines 88 rate hike — Copper Drops as Spreads Loosen and Traders Boost Rate Hike Bets
  • commodity Oil Selloff 72 XLE +0.0% · 2 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:No Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 708.7 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth
  • IF SMH reclaims strength + QQQ > 708.7 (昨日高点) THEN SHORT-cover / tactical LONG

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 708.7 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH
  • IF SMH continues lower + QQQ < 708.7 (昨日低点) THEN avoid dip-buy; SHORT semis

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF QQQ between 708.7 (昨日低点) and 708.7 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility
  • IF chip selloff continues without QQQ breakdown THEN WAIT

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 MU
MU ranked #1 because weakest RS
SHORT Swing 80.0% 2.38% Reward/Risk 1.40 Entry Zone 925.60–925.92 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$941.44 $903.75 RS弱于QQQ -5.21% · RS弱于SMH -2.76% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 Fed Headlines · Oil Selloff Close above stop $941.44
2 ARM SHORT Swing 81.0% 1.34% Reward/Risk 0.39 Entry Zone 247–248 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$255.95 $244.01 RS弱于QQQ -2.68% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 Fed Headlines · Oil Selloff Close above stop $255.95
3 AVGO SHORT Swing 72.0% 0.85% Reward/Risk 0.58 Entry Zone 349.61–350.48 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$355.18 $347.08 RS弱于QQQ -2.46% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 期望R -0.12 < 0.20(EV门禁) Fed Headlines · Oil Selloff Close above stop $355.18
4 AMD SHORT Swing 72.0% 0.92% Reward/Risk 0.41 Entry Zone 488.92–489.01 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$499.98 $484.46 RS弱于QQQ -2.48% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 期望R -0.18 < 0.20(EV门禁) Fed Headlines · Oil Selloff Close above stop $499.98
5 SMH SHORT Swing 72.0% 1.09% Reward/Risk 0.59 Entry Zone 545.16–545.40 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$555.45 $539.32 RS弱于QQQ -2.45% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 期望R -0.16 < 0.20(EV门禁) Fed Headlines · Oil Selloff Close above stop $555.45

Watchlist

  • TQQQ · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.51% · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 期望R -0.16 < 0.20(EV门禁)
  • NVDA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.83% · 半导体内领涨 +0.62% · News 8 (利空做空) · Volume 信号
  • TSLA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.50% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高
  • XLK · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.31% · Gap 未过度延伸 · News 1 (利空做空) · Volume 信号
  • QQQ · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 走高 · 期望R -0.02 < 0.20(EV门禁)
Bias Strong Bear ★☆☆☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Fed — Fed Headlines
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.18 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.69%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Fed Headlines、Oil Selloff、Trade Policy
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -5

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • Fed Headlines / Oil Selloff Whipsaw
  • VIX Spike
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release
  • Don't Fight Volatility

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $212.87–$217.34
Stop · Target $225.01 → $198.18 / T2 $190.51
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -4.3%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $225.01 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 NVDA:理想入场 $212.87–$217.34,止损 $225.01,目标 $198.18(约 +7.2%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-14-001 · AI Chip Selloff dominates today despite macro tailwinds?

Scenario B:若 Fed Headlines 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (5.77%)

Driver「Fed — Fed Headlines」→ TLT, IEF, UUP

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
TLT — — —
IEF — — —
UUP — — —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →