Daily Trading OS

美股每日研究 · Step 0 → Step 8 · Learning Flywheel v2

Day 50
9/9 Steps

Executive Summary · 今日决策

数据截至 08:00 ET(早盘决策) 完整 Morning →

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★☆☆☆☆ MU Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 45.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 45.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 44.0% Avoid

10:00 Session Update · Best Trade

#1 set at session re-eval: MU · ADVISORY

Primary changed vs Morning Ideal

↻ MU SHORT · Ideal Entry Zone 981–987 · Live ER +1.89% · Gate No Trade

Today's Opportunities

先给机会,再给分析 — 无需翻页

  • ★★★☆☆ MU SHORT MU ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability 71.0% Trade
  • ★☆☆☆☆ AMD Avoid 63.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ ARM Avoid 71.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ SMH Avoid 45.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ NVDA Avoid 44.0% Avoid
  • ★☆☆☆☆ TQQQ Avoid 39.0% Avoid

Driver Tree

Primary → Secondary → Tertiary · 盘中可更新

  1. Primary Political — Geopolitical Risk

    Oil Markets Feel the Pain of a Protracted War

  2. Secondary Macro — Oil Selloff

    XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines

  3. Tertiary Political — Trade Policy

    tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Macro Calendar · 按市场影响排序

Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk + Geopolitical Risk

  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Oil Markets Feel the Pain of a Protracted War
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Ukraine Says It Hit Major Oil Refinery in Russia’s Volga Region
  • breaking Geopolitical Risk 88 Russia’s Top UN Atomic Official Suspended Over Misogynist Screed
  • commodity Oil Selloff 76 XLE +0.0% · 4 oil headlines
  • breaking Trade Policy 65 tariff — Arabica Coffee Prices Hit Record on U.S., Colombia Tariff Spat

Trade Plan · IF-THEN

Gate:No Trade

Conditions to go LONG

  • IF QQQ > 716.3 (昨日高点) AND breadth positive THEN LONG QQQ / Call(突破昨高)
  • IF de-escalation headline + QQQ reclaims prior high THEN LONG risk-on bounce
  • IF oil stabilizes + XLE fades AND QQQ holds THEN LONG growth

Conditions to go SHORT

  • IF QQQ < 716.3 (昨日低点) AND risk-off confirmed THEN SHORT / Put(破位昨低)
  • IF oil spike + SMH breaks prior low THEN SHORT SMH / defensive hedge
  • IF oil breaks higher + semis weak THEN SHORT SMH

Conditions to WAIT / No Trade

  • IF major data not yet released THEN WAIT — no pre-release index bets
  • IF geopolitical headlines escalate AND VIX spikes THEN WAIT — reduce size, no chase
  • IF QQQ between 716.3 (昨日低点) and 716.3 (昨日高点) THEN WAIT — no edge in range
  • IF oil whipsaw ±2% intraday THEN WAIT — energy volatility

Top 5 Trade Candidates

ADVISORY — 不构成投资建议

# Ticker Dir Hz Win% ER% R:R Ideal Entry Alt Entry Status Stop Target Why Today Catalyst Invalidation
1 MU
MU ranked #1 because largest expected range + highest probability + best reward/risk
SHORT Swing 71.0% 1.28% Reward/Risk 16.00 Entry Zone 987–988 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$988.5 $975.07 RS弱于QQQ -3.47% · RS弱于SMH -2.40% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $988.5 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
2 ARM SHORT Swing 71.0% 1.18% Reward/Risk 23.31 Entry Zone 257.09–257.34 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$257.34 $254.18 RS弱于QQQ -2.30% · RS弱于SMH -1.23% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $257.34 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
3 AMD SHORT Swing 71.0% 0.96% Reward/Risk 0.39 Entry Zone 508.45–508.54 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$521.1 $503.6 RS弱于QQQ -1.94% · RS弱于SMH -0.87% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风) Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $521.1 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
4 TQQQ SHORT Swing 45.0% 1.79% Reward/Risk 1.17 Entry Zone 70.39–70.54 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$71.55 $69.21 RS弱于QQQ -1.01% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风) · Geo-risk day — avoid blind TQQQ short vs escalation Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $71.55 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion
5 SMH SHORT Swing 45.0% 0.88% Reward/Risk 19.88 Entry Zone 565.01–565.50 — EXPIRED
Abandon today
$565.5 $560.28 RS弱于QQQ -1.07% · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风) · Geo-risk day — avoid blind SMH short vs escalation Geopolitical Risk · Geopolitical Risk Close above stop $565.5 · Geopolitical escalation invalidates mean-reversion

Watchlist

  • NVDA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.34% · News 2 (利空做空) · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风)
  • TSLA · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -1.32% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风)
  • XLE · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.96% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风)
  • XLK · Pass · RS弱于QQQ -0.19% · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风)
  • META · Pass · Gap 未过度延伸 · Volume 信号 · VIX 回落 (做空逆风) · 几何上行 <1.5%(软门槛)
Bias Strong Bear ★☆☆☆☆
Best Trade 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值
Direction NO TRADE —
Win Prob —
Ideal Entry (frozen) —
Entry Status EXPIRED Session ended — Ideal Entry plan stale Abandon today
Stop / Target →
R:R —
P&L —
More transparency · Edge / Index / Full details

View edges on /today →

Driver Tree Political — Geopolitical Risk
Confidence 45%
Index Trade NO TRADE
Why 今日无任何标的达到交易阈值

Why Index Rejected

  • P16 Gate No Trade 指数敞口:No Trade
  • TQQQ Pass Score 0.25 未达阈值
  • QQQ Weak QQQ -0.40%
  • Semis Weak SMH 相对 QQQ 偏弱
  • Macro Event High uncertainty Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk、Geopolitical Risk
  • Breadth Weak Morning total -5

Today's Biggest Risk

Low Breadth

  • Low Breadth
  • Geopolitical Risk / Geopolitical Risk Whipsaw
  • Semiconductor Weakness
  • Don't Oversize
  • Don't Trade Before Data Release

「今日无任何标的达到交易阈值」

Wait ↑ Intraday Primary Bond · Dollar · Sector 证据 →

长线 · Swing Trade

Swing

ADVISORY — 独立于上方 Intraday Primary · 多日–数周

Symbol · Direction NVDA · SHORT
Ideal Entry Zone $219.78–$224.29
Stop · Target $231.98 → $205.05 / T2 $197.36
Horizon Swing (days–weeks)
Why 高流动性波段标的 NVDA · Prior day +0.0% · 5D momentum -2.6%
Invalidation Close beyond stop $231.98 or thesis broken (trend flip / catalyst fade)

「波段做空 NVDA:理想入场 $219.78–$224.29,止损 $231.98,目标 $205.05(约 +7.0%),持仓天数–数周」

Hypothesis (P17) · 失效条件

H-2026-09-11-001 · Inflation is today's primary market driver

Scenario B:若 Geopolitical Risk 强于预期 + QQQ < 昨低 → Put / 放弃 · Scenario C:若 QQQ 震荡 → 不交易

Trade Detail · 完整价位与因子

Tradable 相对强弱 · vs QQQ (4.64%)

Driver「Political — Geopolitical Risk」→ XLE, UUP, QQQ

Symbol 日涨跌 vs QQQ
XLE -3.56% -8.20% ▼
UUP — — —
QQQ 4.64% +0.00% —

今日流程 · 点任意 Step 查看报告

7:45 ET
Step 0 — 数据更新
Raw Data 采集
已生成 查看报告 →
8:00 ET
Step 1 — Morning Research
R0 → P1–P16 → P17 → P18 Decision
已生成 查看报告 →
9:30 ET
Step 2 — Open
开盘观察 · 不交易
已生成 查看报告 →
10:00 ET
Step 3 — Market Update
Driver 切换 · 重算 Score
已生成 查看报告 →
10:15 ET
Step 4 — Trading Decision
建议 only · ADVISORY
已生成 查看报告 →
12:00 ET
Step 5 — Midday Review
Driver 是否仍成立
已生成 查看报告 →
14:00 ET
Step 6 — Afternoon Review
Trade still valid?
已生成 查看报告 →
16:10 ET
Step 7 — Attribution
涨跌归因 · Surprise · Decision Log
已生成 查看报告 →
20:00 ET
Step 8 — Learning
Bayesian · Playbook · 训练行
已生成 查看报告 →